U.S. Open analysis: 10 things to know about Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlroy, more

U.S. Open analysis: 10 things to know about Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlroy, more
By Justin Ray
Jun 16, 2024

Bryson DeChambeau said earlier this week that when he learned Payne Stewart played golf for SMU on a visit to the school, he knew where he would play his college golf.

A quarter-century after Stewart’s raucous victory at Pinehurst No. 2, DeChambeau is the 54-hole leader at the U.S. Open, trying to follow in those stylish shoes once again.

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Here are the top numbers and notes to know from the third round of the U.S. Open.

1. DeChambeau will carry a three-shot lead into the final round, his first career 54-hole lead in a major championship. While DeChambeau has been his usual impressive self with driver in hand (first in the field in driving distance, second in strokes gained off the tee), his touch on the lightning-fast putting surfaces of Pinehurst No. 2 has arguably been even more captivating. Through three rounds, DeChambeau is 17-for-19 putting from 4 to 8 feet. In the last two rounds combined, he’s gained more than 5.5 strokes on the field on the greens alone.

DeChambeau recorded the second-best round of any player in the field Saturday despite making a double bogey at 16. He’s the first player to shoot in the 60s in each of the first three rounds in a U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2. With a victory Sunday, DeChambeau would be just the fifth player since World War II to win multiple U.S. Open titles by age 30 or younger, joining Jack Nicklaus, Ernie Els, Tiger Woods and Brooks Koepka.

2. While DeChambeau is in prime position, there are several parallels to a past U.S. Open on these same grounds. In 2005, two-time U.S. Open winner Retief Goosen seemed pre-ordained to claim another title that Saturday night, holding a three-shot lead over Olin Browne and Jason Gore. The golf world witnessed a shocking final-round 81 from the South African, opening the door for Michael Campbell to claim one of the more surprising major victories in the modern era. DeChambeau — he, too a past U.S. Open winner, leads by three.

Players who have carried a lead of three or more into the final round of the U.S. Open have won 22 of 34 times. You don’t have to go back far to find a player who lost a lead this large at a U.S. Open: Shane Lowry led by four strokes after three rounds at Oakmont in 2016, before getting beat by Dustin Johnson.

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3. Frenchman Matthieu Pavon, winner at Torrey Pines earlier this season, will be in the final pairing alongside DeChambeau. For a moment Saturday, Pavon was in position to be the first French player to lead after any U.S. Open round since 1915. With a win Sunday, Pavon would join Arnaud Massy (1907 Open Championship) as the only men’s professional major winner from his home country. Three women from France have won majors, the last being Celine Boutier last summer at the Amundi Evian Championship.

Through three rounds, nobody has gained more strokes on the field putting than Pavon has. That’s a bit of a statistical surprise, since Pavon ranks just 96th on the PGA Tour this season in that metric. Pavon enjoyed his best round of the week with his approach play Saturday, something he will need to replicate to win his first major title.

4. Rory McIlroy battled to a 1-under-par 69 and will be tied with Pavon, three back of DeChambeau, to begin the final round. After a scratchy Friday with the putter, McIlroy was better in Round 3, needing four fewer putts to get around Pinehurst No. 2. His ball striking has been sublime through 54 holes, as he leads the tournament in strokes gained tee to green.

This is the sixth consecutive year that McIlroy is in seventh place or better entering the final round of a U.S. Open. The last player to do that in six or more consecutive appearances in this championship was Ben Hogan, who did it in eight straight from 1941-53 (a run interrupted by World War II and his life-threatening car accident).

McIlroy held the 54-hole lead in all four of his major championship victories. If he were to come back and win Sunday, the 13-year gap between U.S. Open titles would be the longest in this championship’s history.

5. Patrick Cantlay rounds out the trio at 4 under after an even-par 70. After a pair of dropped shots on the front nine, the 32-year-old American played bogey-free, 1-under golf on the back. Cantlay has improved his strokes gained putting number and field rank each round this week, capped off by a stout +3.43 (third best in the field) Saturday. This is Cantlay’s best career 54-hole position in a major.

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Cantlay’s reward for the best U.S. Open of his life to date is a final-round pairing with McIlroy, who famously had a very public confrontation with Cantlay’s caddie Joe LaCava last year in Rome at the Ryder Cup. Just a little extra spice for your Father’s Day Carolina barbecue.

6. For parts of this week he hasn’t looked it, but Ludvig Åberg was human in Round 3. A triple bogey on the 13th hole puts his championship chances in extreme peril, as he will begin the final round five back. Åberg has had one glaring Achilles’ heel this week: his play around these difficult Pinehurst greens. Of the 74 players to make the cut, he’s 70th in strokes gained around the green and 71st in scrambling (4-for-12).

Hideki Matsuyama made a Saturday afternoon charge, carding three birdies in a four-hole stretch on the back nine. He will also begin the final round five back of DeChambeau, looking to become the first player from Japan to win a U.S. Open. Two weeks ago, Yuka Saso won the U.S. Women’s Open playing under the Japanese flag. There has never been an instance of both championships being won in the same year by players representing the same country, other than the United States.

7. With tough pins and aggressive players trying to make a move, the field green-in-regulation rate was just 49.7 percent in Round 3, its lowest number so far this week. For context, the overall PGA Tour green-in-regulation average this season is 64.9 percent. Three holes yielded a GIR rate under 23 percent Saturday, led by the brutal second (17.6 percent). All but two players in the field missed at least six greens in regulation in Round 3.

All that information makes Tyrrell Hatton’s iron play Saturday that much more impressive. Hatton hit 16 of 18 greens and averaged 35 feet, 2 inches proximity — some 19 feet closer than the field average. Had the fiery Englishman made a putt longer than 4 feet after the fifth hole, he would really be part of the Saturday night conversation.

8. Two-time major winner Collin Morikawa turned in the round of the day, posting 66 before the leaders had left the practice area. Morikawa gained 4.99 strokes on the field putting, the best single-round performance of his professional career. That was particularly unexpected because of his dreadful day on the greens Friday: Morikawa made nearly 100 more feet of putts in Round 3 (137 feet, 2 inches) than he did in the second round (39 feet, 11 inches).

Morikawa started the third round in a tie for 51st place. Should he come all the way back and win Sunday, it would be the largest 36-hole positional comeback in men’s major championship history. The mark is held by David Duval, who was tied for 35th entering Round 3 of his win at the 2001 Open Championship.

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9. Each of the last five men’s majors has been won by a different American player: Brooks Koepka, Wyndham Clark, Brian Harman, Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele. Should DeChambeau, Cantlay or another U.S. contender win Sunday to make it six in a row, it would be the longest such streak since the late ’70s.

Seven Americans won majors from the 1975 PGA through the 1977 U.S. Open: Jack Nicklaus, Raymond Floyd, Jerry Pate, Johnny Miller, Dave Stockton, Tom Watson and Hubert Green.

10. Each of the previous 25 U.S. Open winners has been within four shots of the lead entering the final round. That’s also the case for 41 of the last 42 men’s major champions overall, the exception being Justin Thomas (seven back) at the 2022 PGA.

The biggest 54-hole comeback in U.S. Open history is seven strokes by Arnold Palmer at Cherry Hills in 1960. No player has come from outside the top 10 entering the final round to win this championship since Hale Irwin in 1990.

(Photo of Bryson DeChambeau: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)

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Justin Ray

Justin Ray is a contributor at The Athletic and the Head of Content for Twenty First Group, a sports intelligence agency that works with players, broadcasters, manufacturers and media. He has been in sports media for more than 10 years and was previously a senior researcher for ESPN and Golf Channel. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinRayGolf