INDIANAPOLIS — Greetings from Lucas Oil Stadium, the newest and biggest home of an Olympic-sized swimming pool.
One of us (Nicole) has covered swimming at two previous Olympic Games and will be on-site here for U.S. Olympic trials as American swimmers compete and qualify for Paris. The other (Peter) has also covered a world championship meet and NCAA championships — and is here in spirit.
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Ahead of the most pressure-packed and important meet on American soil this quadrennial, we convened to chat about the meet and our expectations for the women and men who will make up this U.S. team. There are 28 total events from Saturday through June 23; the top two finishers in each event qualify for Paris (pending roster size limitations and Olympic qualifying times) and up to the top six finishers in the 100- and 200-meter freestyle, who earn roster spots for relays.
We’ll have coverage for you all week at The Athletic, plus plenty more features and analysis ahead of the Paris Games. But for now, let’s preview Indianapolis.
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Is there an overall storyline you’re tracking this week?
Nicole: The state of American swimming. It already feels like a very different Olympics, because the biggest American stars are elsewhere — Simone Biles in gymnastics, Noah Lyles and Sha’Carri Richardson in track, etc. Katie Ledecky is back. Caeleb Dressel is back. But there are not many household names beyond them. There are young swimmers primed to make a jump, and there are also specialists (particularly on the men’s side) who may only compete in one or two events total. It’s just a very different roster makeup than Team USA had for a long time with the Michael Phelps, Ryan Lochte, Missy Franklin types. They were on our TVs most nights of each Games … and they won a ton of gold medals.
Earlier this month, USA Swimming president and CEO Tim Hinchey III said that the organization’s goal is to both win the swim meet (aka earn the most medals possible) and to win the gold-medal count. That’s always the U.S. national team’s goal, but it’s usually close to a lock. Right now, it’s not. At the 2023 world championships in Fukuoka, Japan, the U.S. had the most total medals, but Australia earned more gold (13 to the Americans’ 7). The Aussies will once again be the country to beat, particularly on the women’s side.
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We’ll get a good sense of where the Americans stack up heading into Paris by seeing times in Indianapolis. Australia’s Olympic trials conclude Saturday, so we’ll be able to compare their times with little over a month to go until the Paris Games begin.
Peter: Ledecky fascinates me, especially how she stacks up compared to the rest of the world. Though still the biggest name in American swimming, the 27-year-old is not the undeniable force she was in the second half of the 2010s. Australia’s Ariarne Titmus beat her in both the 200- and 400-meter freestyle races in Tokyo, then won head-to-head against Ledecky again in the 400-meter race with a world-record swim last summer at worlds. (Ledecky beat Titmus in the 800-meter freestyle and didn’t swim the 200-meter individually last worlds.)
Ledecky could also have competition in the 800-meter freestyle at an Olympic or world championship meet for the first time in years. Canadian Summer McIntosh beat her in the event in February and will be formidable. The guard might be changing, and Olympic trials will give us a sense of how Ledecky will respond.
Which swimmer are you most excited to see compete?
Nicole: Dressel has been one of the most fascinating American swimmers for quite some time, and he’s the one I can’t wait to see in Indianapolis. When he’s good, he’s spectacularly good. In Tokyo, he won gold in both the 50- and 100-meter freestyle events as well as the 100-meter butterfly, joining Michael Phelps and Mark Spitz as the only men to earn three individual swimming gold medals at one Games. But he’s also somewhat of an enigma, never quite letting the public all the way in.
Dressel took an eight-month break from swimming from mid-2022 to early 2023, abruptly withdrawing from the 2022 world championship meet and disappearing from the spotlight. And at the 2023 U.S. national championships, he failed to qualify for the 2023 world championships, his best result merely a fourth-place finish in the 50-meter butterfly. He’s spoken about needing that time away from the sport and also about how it drew him back. In the past year, he’s regained strength both physically and mentally as the 27-year-old has seemingly returned to form and started to look the part of the face of American men’s swimming once again.
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He’s posted the best time by an American in the 100 fly so far this year, so I feel good about him in that event. Will he qualify in the 50 and 100 free? How will he handle the pressure of a meet of this magnitude with what he’s described as a new mental approach? I can’t wait to watch.
Peter: I’m excited to see how Regan Smith looks. Despite winning three medals at the last Olympics, she was far from her best at that meet and didn’t even make the U.S. team in the 200-meter backstroke, an event in which she holds the American record. She’s since switched training groups — she is now with Bob Bowman — and has both rediscovered her love for the sport and once again established herself as an Olympic gold-medal contender.
Smith broke her own American record in the 100-meter backstroke in May and has also had a couple recent swims under the 2:04 mark in the 200-meter backstroke. With a good trials, she could break her American record (2:03.35) in that event.
The 22-year-old is also an excellent butterflier and won a silver medal in the 200-meter fly in Tokyo. She’s the heavy favorite in that event entering trials, and she’s also seeded third in the 100-meter fly.
She should qualify for three individual events in Indianapolis and has a shot at a fourth, and I have a feeling she’ll have a shot at some American records. If she’s at her best — and it seems she is — she could have an electric meet.
What races intrigue you the most, and why?
Nicole: I’ll say men’s 100-meter freestyle and the women’s 200-meter individual medley. Let’s start with the men in an event that is always one of the most entertaining races of any meet. This particular crop of Americans is particularly deep, with five different swimmers posting times under 48 seconds in the event since the start of 2023 — none of them named Caeleb Dressel, who took gold in this event in Tokyo. So, yeah. This is going to be a fun one, with huge relay implications, too. Names to watch: Jack Alexy and Matt King.
The women’s 200 IM is one of my favorites because I love watching IMs and would absolutely never want to swim one myself. And the 200 moves so quickly from stroke to stroke — it’s so fun. I will cheat a bit and say I picked this event mostly because I’m excited about the race in Paris. In Indy, I expect to see either Kate Douglass followed by Alex Walsh or Alex Walsh followed by Kate Douglass. Both have been world champions in the event. But what’s going to be awesome about Paris is that you’ll also add McIntosh, the Canadian phenom, and Aussie star Kaylee McKeown to the mix. That final has a chance to make some history with its times and also this: No American woman has won gold in this event in 40 years, when Tracy Caulkins did it. Can Douglass or Walsh snap that streak?
Peter: Both the men’s and women’s 200-meter freestyle. For one, it’s my favorite event to watch. Swimmers are going fast enough that it feels close to a sprint, but there’s strategy involved and sometimes large swings within races. If a swimmer goes out too fast, they can really fade in the final 25 meters. It’s particularly fun at Olympic trials where — as with the 100-meter freestyle — between four and six swimmers make the team in the event because of relay spots. It opens the door for surprise (and oftentimes younger) candidates to make the team. Katie Ledecky might run away with first place in the women’s event, for example, but there’s reason to watch every swimmer in the pool. They’ll all be in contention for spots.
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A few names to watch: Claire Weinstein, only 17, will be in contention to make her first Olympic team, and so will 19-year-old Erin Gemmell, whose dad, Bruce, coached Ledecky when she was younger. Simone Manuel and Katie Grimes, both of whom made at least one other Olympic team in other events, are also currently set to try out the 200. It’ll be interesting to see how they do.
The U.S. men had a highly disappointing 4×200-meter freestyle relay at the Tokyo Games, finishing fourth and failing to medal in the event for the first time in Olympic competitions it entered. The U.S. relay took silver at 2023 world championships with a time more than two seconds faster than it had at the Olympics, so there’s reason to think the 2024 result could be better. All four swimmers from the 2023 relay (Luke Hobson, Carson Foster, Jake Mitchell and Kieran Smith) are seeded in the top five at trials.
Any sleeper picks to make some noise?
Nicole: I’ll go with 17-year-old Thomas Heilman, who we’ll see compete in the 100 and 200 butterfly. This pick may be a bit premature, but if he delivers, boy, will I look smart. Last summer at nationals, he qualified for worlds as Team USA’s youngest member in both events and broke a 200-meter butterfly age-group record held for 22 years by Phelps. At worlds, he won gold as part of the 4×100-meter medley relay and finished fourth in the 200 fly with a personal best time and the fastest time of any American under the age of 18 … ever. He is still young, but he’s a stud and someone who surely looks like a huge part of the future of USA Swimming. Can that future also be now?
Peter: It’s hard to call Carson Foster a dark horse after he won multiple medals at each of the past three long-course world championships, but I’ll include him because of how narrowly he missed the last Olympic team. Patrick Callan beat him by 18-hundredths of a second for the last 4×200-meter freestyle relay spot, and Foster finished third in the 4X100-meter individual medley by just over half a second.
The 22-year-old is still searching for his first Olympic berth, and he feels poised to clinch it in Indianapolis. He’s the top seed in the 4×100-meter individual medley and second in both 200-meter butterfly and 200-meter individual medley. He’ll also have a shot at qualifying individually in the 200-meter freestyle (No. 3 seed) and maybe even the 400-meter freestyle (No. 8 seed) and 200-meter backstroke (No. 9 seed). With a big meet, he can solidify himself as one of the country’s most versatile swimmers.
When the final wall is touched and the team announced, what will we be talking about?
Nicole: The pool in the football stadium! I really think this wild and crazy setup is going to be a big hit. Even if the stands aren’t totally full every night — 30,000 people is a LOT of people — it’ll still more than justify the giant venue. USA Swimming folks and swimmers themselves like to describe trials as the most pressure-packed meet on the planet (even more so than the actual Olympics), and I bet they’ll love the spectacle that this created.
Peter: Will any non-swimming Indianapolis sports figures make appearances? It’d be fun to see some cross-sport support at the event!
Nicole: Cough, cough, Caitlin Clark?
GO DEEPER
For U.S. women's Olympic swim team, a collegiate powerhouse helps fuel the charge for gold
(Top illustration of, left to right, Caeleb Dressel, Katie Ledecky and Regan Smith: Daniel Goldfarb / The Athletic; photos: Jerome Ibrahim / ISI Photos / Getty Images, Maddie Meyer / Getty Images, Jared C. Tilton / Getty Images)