They can’t all be hits, right?
The sheer random nature of life means sometimes even great picks in the first round don’t pan out, and of course sometimes bad picks in the first round don’t pan out either. Here’s a look at all of the 2014 MLB Draft first-round picks who didn’t ultimately make my redrafted top 30, with a look at what made them first rounders a decade ago and/or why they didn’t become the players their drafting teams hoped they’d be.
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(Note: Career WAR numbers as of June 10. Scouting grades on a 20-80 scale.)
Brady Aiken, LHP, Houston Astros
Drafted: No. 1, did not sign
Career WAR: Never reached the majors
By now, you likely know the story: The Astros were all set to sign Aiken but his post-draft physical revealed an abnormality in his elbow, so the Astros tried to renegotiate for a lower bonus (rather than just walking away), and Aiken’s representatives declined. At the time, it looked like the Astros weren’t acting in good faith, but subsequent events vindicated their position, unfortunately.
Aiken tried to pitch the next spring and blew out almost immediately, and while he did sign with Cleveland as a first-rounder in 2015, he had just one healthy season in the minors but wasn’t very good, with more walks than strikeouts. He threw 1/3 of an inning in 2019, walking six batters, and eventually went back on the shelf with thoracic outlet syndrome, stepping away from the sport that offseason. I did see Aiken in high school and he remains on the very short list of the best prep arms I’ve ever seen. He had stuff, command, size, delivery, you name it. If Hugh Everett was right after all, there’s another universe somewhere where Aiken has two Cy Youngs and we’re debating his Hall of Fame candidacy.
Tyler Kolek, RHP, Miami Marlins
Drafted: No. 2
Career WAR: Never reached the majors
This one sort of broke me — the trip just to go watch Kolek struggle to get out hitters half his height even though he was sitting 97-99 mph felt like such a colossal waste of time, and I still couldn’t figure out how to reconcile the fact that he had the best pure arm in the class with the fact that, at best, you were watching him face Little Sisters of the Poor all the time. It didn’t matter; he was awful from Day 1, pitched just one full season in the minors (2015), blew out, and threw just 33 total innings after he returned, last pitching in 2019.
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Nick Gordon, SS, Minnesota Twins
Drafted: No. 5
Career WAR: 0.4
I missed here; I thought Gordon had such great aptitude and enough athleticism that he’d figure out the middle infield and end up a strong on-base guy. In pro ball, he was less disciplined than I thought, struggled more with pitch recognition, and often seemed to try to hit for power that was never part of his game. This is pure hindsight talking, but the Twins probably should have moved him off shortstop far sooner than they did.
Alex Jackson, C, Seattle Mariners
Drafted: No. 6
Career WAR: minus-1.4
A lot went wrong for Jackson, but the worst thing was something done to him — the Mariners took him from behind the plate and stuck him right in the outfield, cutting his value substantially, and I don’t think he ever bought into the change. A trade to Atlanta at least got him back to catching and has given him a brief big-league career; now it’s just his lack of pitch recognition that’s holding him down.
Max Pentecost, C, Toronto Blue Jays
Drafted: No. 11
Career WAR: Never reached the majors
Pentecost had arm surgery in high school, then after the Jays signed him he had wrist surgery, multiple shoulder surgeries, and enough other injuries that his bat completely stalled out, and he retired after a disappointing 2018 season in Double A.
Kodi Medeiros, LHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Drafted: No. 12
Career WAR: Never reached the majors
Medeiros had great stuff from a lower slot, but he looked like a near-certain reliever in high school. The Brewers tried to start him, but he couldn’t get righties out and walked way too many guys in total.
Tyler Beede, RHP, San Francisco Giants
Drafted: No. 14
Career WAR: minus-1.2
Beede was a first-round pick out of high school by the Jays but didn’t sign — the rumor is that his adviser had a deal in place with another team, later in the first, and demanded that Toronto match the offer, which, well, that’s not how any of this works — so he went to Vanderbilt, pitched well for three years, and got back into the first round. He had velocity and a plus changeup, with better control than command, lacking an average breaking ball or enough fastball life.
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Sean Newcomb, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
Drafted: No. 15
Career WAR: 2.4 WAR
Newcomb would show three pitches and worked with little effort, but no team has ever found a way to get him to repeat the arm swing so he could throw more strikes — an executive once told me he thought Newcomb’s delivery was too easy, so much so that trying to get him to rework his arm’s path from glove to release was impossible.
Touki Toussaint, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Drafted: No. 16
Career WAR: 0.3
I always say to bet on athletes. I still believe in that. Toussaint is a strong counterexample — as wildly athletic as he is, he has never really improved his control or command in a meaningful way. He’s one of the biggest “I can’t believe that pitcher didn’t figure it out” guys of my career. When he was an amateur, his stuff was eye-popping.
Brandon Finnegan, LHP, Kansas City Royals
Drafted: No. 17
Career WAR: 2.2 WAR
For the Royals, this was a successful pick — they brought him to the majors that fall, then traded him in July of 2015 for Johnny Cueto, who helped them win the World Series. The Reds tried to start him, which was extremely unlikely to work, and he ended up with the second-most walks in the NL. He last appeared in the majors in 2018 and in pro ball in 2022.
Nick Howard, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Drafted: No. 19
Career WAR: Never reached the majors
I didn’t like this pick at the time because I thought Howard, who closed for Virginia, had no chance to start. I did not think he’d get the yips, but in 2015-16 he walked 81 guys in 58 innings, and from there it was injuries and ineffectiveness all the way down. He was released by Atlanta last July and appears to be out of baseball.
Casey Gillaspie, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays
Drafted: 20
Career WAR: Never reached the majors
I hated this pick, perhaps irrationally, but I found the hype around Gillaspie disconnected from reality — his swing, which was just like his brother Conor’s, did not work for power. He reached Triple A and slugged .418 in his minor-league career before he was released in 2018.
Bradley Zimmer, OF, Cleveland Guardians
Drafted: 21
Career WAR: 2.9 WAR
I was all in on Zimmer’s tools and upside, until it became clear early in his pro career that he couldn’t hit lefties at all, and generally was not a fan of any pitch with a wrinkle in it.
Grant Holmes, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Drafted: No. 22
Career WAR: Hasn’t reached the majors
When scouts disdain six-foot right-handers, Holmes is one of the better examples — his fastball came in too flat and pro hitters know what to do with that. He had present stuff at the time of the draft, though, and seemed to have above-average control with good feel to pitch. He’s in Triple A for Atlanta right now, though, and pitching well, sitting 95 with a four-pitch mix out of the pen.
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Derek Hill, OF, Detroit Tigers
Drafted: 23
Career WAR: minus-0.5
You can give me a giant “L” on this one. I thought Hill would hit, I knew he could play defense and run, and I figured he’d grow into just enough strength to make it all work. He had a short, simple swing for contact, and seemed to have a great idea at the plate — unsurprising for the son of a longtime scout. He struggled with ball/strike recognition early on, though, and eventually the Tigers tried to get him to hit for more power, except the cost was contact. He may kick around a few more years as an emergency call-up/fifth outfielder.
Cole Tucker, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
Drafted: No. 24
Career WAR: minus-2.5 WAR
Tucker had tools, but what really pushed him into the first round was his makeup — scouts loved this guy, talking about him like he should run for Senate rather than hit second in a lineup. He tore the labrum in his throwing shoulder in August 2015, missing half of the next year, and has never been quite the same in the field or at the plate since, although the Pirates did try to keep him at shortstop until 2019. Life isn’t all bad for Tucker, though — he and his wife, Vanessa Hudgens, are expecting their first child.
Michael Chavis, SS, Boston Red Sox
Drafted: No. 26
Career WAR: 0.2
Chavis showed big pull power in high school, but it became apparent almost immediately in pro ball that many folks had overrated his hit tool. In 2015, he hit .223/.277/.405 with a 31 percent strikeout rate as a 19-year-old in Low A. For him to go from that to nearly 1,200 major-league PA, even just as a replacement-level guy, is pretty impressive.
Foster Griffin, LHP, Kansas City Royals
Drafted: No. 28
Career WAR: minus-0.1
Griffin was supposed to be a command guy with a little projection, but the command wasn’t that good and his stuff never ticked up enough to matter. He’s had a nice year-plus in NPB since heading there after the 2022 season.
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Alex Blandino, SS, Cincinnati Reds
Drafted: No. 29
Career WAR: minus-0.2 WAR
Blandino starred at Stanford as a hitter, but in the majors he didn’t hit it hard enough or often enough, and you kind of have to do one or the other. Even in the minors he didn’t make the kind of consistent hard contact he’d made with the composite bats in college.
Luis Ortiz, RHP, Texas Rangers
Drafted: 30
Career WAR: 0.0
Ortiz is currently with the Phillies, on the injured list. He’s actually pitched more for the Phillies than any other club, 19 2/3 innings in total in the last two seasons. He had a great changeup in high school but scouts questioned his conditioning even then, and sure enough, he’s had a hard time staying on the field for most of his career. Even as a starter in the Texas, Milwaukee, and Baltimore systems, he never managed to throw more than 102 innings in any season.
(Top photo illustration: Brady Aiken (left): Larry Goren / Four Seam Images via Associated Press; Tyler Kolek (right): Mike Janes / Four Seam Images via Associated Press)