ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — This far out from the July 30 trade deadline, Chicago Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer believes the prices are excessive. Any team that wants to immediately add major-league talent would have to pay a premium. The vast majority of the National League is stuck in the middle, waiting to define plans. For the Cubs, it’s a matter of degree more than direction. Selling really isn’t an option.
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“We’ll be on the lookout for all sorts of upgrades,” Hoyer said Tuesday on 670 The Score. “But let’s watch this for the next stretch, and hopefully we start to turn this around. I think we will.”
Of course, Hoyer believes in his handpicked team, which is 32-35 after Tuesday’s 5-2 walk-off loss to the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. What an executive says on the team’s flagship radio station in June doesn’t matter as much as what he does in July. Hoyer is well aware of the club’s flaws, the fans’ frustrations and the recent history that will shape some of these looming decisions.
The lineup needs a game changer
This feels like an evergreen topic since the Cubs passed on Bryce Harper and Manny Machado as free agents, chose Dansby Swanson for his Gold Glove defense over other All-Star shortstops and missed their chances to acquire Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto. To win in today’s game, you have to slug.
Cody Bellinger returned to an MVP level for parts of last season, and Seiya Suzuki has flashed an ability to carry the offense in stretches. But this is a lineup without a superstar, and the farm system is regarded more for its depth and balance than a singular prospect with endless potential.
Some of this will depend on how on-the-fence teams like the New York Mets and Toronto Blue Jays perform over the next several weeks, and what those front offices decide to do with Pete Alonso and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The Cubs can also be more aggressive, get outside of their comfort zone and recognize that these opportunities come around only so often.
“We’ve built up a really great farm system,” Hoyer said on WSCR-AM 670. “Ultimately, the goal is to be able to bring these guys up. That creates tremendous efficiency and tremendous depth as an organization. We do want to avoid (what happened after the 2016 World Series). We were a little bit guilty the last time of constantly making short-term deadline deals that ended up putting us in a hole.”
It should be noted that putting together a package of all the Cubs top prospects to get two-plus months of a middle-of-the-order bat isn’t how this works. Very rarely are top 100 prospects traded for rentals anymore. The cost is likely less than what one would expect. To get someone like Guerrero will cost more since he’s not a free agent until after the 2025 season. But even when the Los Angeles Dodgers traded for two months of Max Scherzer and a year and a half of Trea Turner, it cost two backend top 100 prospects (Keibert Ruiz and Josiah Gray) and two fliers.
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That’s probably the type of bigger deal a team like the Cubs, which hopes to take a big step forward in 2025, should be looking to pull off. Beyond just improving the big-league roster, it’s getting to a point where they have to move some of these prospects while they still have value and aren’t crowding their own 40-man.
The catching situation is becoming untenable
One factor that worked against the Cubs when they attempted to trade Willson Contreras at the 2022 deadline was a reluctance by other teams to incorporate a new catcher during the middle of the season. There were already concerns about Contreras’ defense, and in that scenario he would have to adapt on the fly, without the benefit of a full spring training and an offseason to get to know the pitchers, the coaching staff and a different game-planning system.
Right now, the Cubs don’t have the luxury of being too picky. Integrating a new catcher is a factor for them, but the need to improve trumps that. The numbers make it obvious. Entering play on Tuesday, the Cubs had a 45 wRC+ and minus-1 WAR (FanGraphs) from their catchers, 28th in baseball.
The post-Contreras catching plan that looked good last season hasn’t worked this year. Miguel Amaya’s offense has dropped off while he’s taken on more responsibilities during his second season in the majors. Yan Gomes’ overall game is fading at the age of 36, though he still commands a lot of respect and trust for his ability to work with pitchers.
An offensive upgrade is obviously a need. Manager Craig Counsell has already pointed out how having such little production in any spot in the lineup is really hard to deal with and makes it very difficult to produce consistent pressure on offense. But the Cubs also need to improve multiple aspects of their defense at that position, with a focus on receiving — the duo is 28th in framing according to FanGraphs.
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One player already linked to the Cubs, Colorado Rockies catcher Elias Díaz, exited Monday’s game with a strained left calf. As much as the Cubs have struggled behind the plate, it could suddenly get even worse with an injury to Amaya or Gomes. The Cubs don’t have another catcher on their 40-man roster and the options at Triple-A Iowa are limited. The Cubs can’t stick with the status quo much longer.
The front office is under pressure to deliver
Counsell may not be openly banging the table for a move, but he’s aware that this is an imperfect roster that could use some changes in the coming weeks.
“You never stop talking about how to improve the roster,” Counsell said. “That’s the focus of Jed, (GM Carter Hawkins) and the front office. But has it changed any (lately)? No, it hasn’t. I like to think you guys jump the trade deadline stuff by about five weeks, so it’s about right.”
Well, that’s certainly true. Fans talk about trades much earlier than is realistic and the media probably isn’t too far behind. But there are clear issues with this team that need to be addressed.
Counsell also pointed out that the advent of more playoff teams leads to fewer teams willing to sell, especially this early in the season. But those changes also mean an under-.500 Cubs team is still right in the thick of the race despite being far from playing its best baseball.
“This year it’s made the National League pretty interesting,” Counsell said. “(There) are so many teams right there. It begs the question about trying to improve your team. That’s good.”
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(Top photo of Jed Hoyer: Quinn Harris / Getty Images)