BALTIMORE – With seven weeks to go before the trade deadline, the six-time defending NL East champion Atlanta Braves still have some time to decide where they most need to bolster the roster if they hope to reel in the division-leading Philadelphia Phillies, or at least secure a wild-card spot.
But do they really need more time to decide? Probably not, considering their paltry .638 OPS and .358 slugging percentage in the past 39 games before Tuesday, the lowest OPS in the majors and fourth-lowest slugging percentage for that period that began April 27.
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It’s been beyond perplexing for the Braves and hitting coach Kevin Seitzer, especially considering Atlanta, with basically the same cast, tied a major-league record with 307 home runs in 2023 and became the first team in MLB history to slug .500 or better (.501) for a full season.
The anemic offense was by far the biggest reason the Braves lost 22 of the past 39 games before Tuesday, a desultory stretch unlike anything the Braves and their fans had been accustomed to seeing during their recent era of division titles, 95-plus-win seasons and a World Series championship in 2021.
With that in mind, here are three early storylines that could shape what Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos does between now and the July 30 trade deadline:
Corner-outfield bat(s)
Barring a big surge soon from Adam Duvall, who has filled in at right field since Ronald Acuña Jr.’s season-ending knee injury May 12, the Braves seem likely to prioritize adding at least one corner outfielder.
Left fielder Jarred Kelenic has picked up his production since making adjustments in his swing and setup and moving into the everyday lineup after serving in a platoon with Duvall before Acuña’s injury, so finding someone to split time with Duvall at one of the corner spots could be a desired move for Atlanta.
But if Kelenic were to revert to his early-season struggle form, adding an everyday outfielder and having Duvall and Kelenic platoon again is another option.
The problem with that: At least a half-dozen other contending teams are expected to pursue corner outfielders, with the Phillies likely to make a run at one or more Chicago White Sox outfielders in a potential Southside fire sale that could involve any or all of Luis Robert Jr., Eloy Jiménez and Tommy Pham.
Robert is a center fielder on a team-friendly contract that runs through 2025 and includes two option years beyond that, so he doesn’t seem a likely match for the Braves. They’re committed long-term to Michael Harris II in center, and his current struggles have done nothing to alter that.
Jiménez wouldn’t be enough of an upgrade over what the Braves have to warrant parting with prospects, but Pham is the type of proven big-game performer on an expiring contract who has appealed to Anthopoulos in the past. He also brings the edge that they could use right about now.
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Pham is currently on the 10-day injured list with a sprained ankle, but is expected back soon and will undoubtedly be pursued by multiple contenders, given his .313 average and .846 OPS with six homers in 31 career postseason games, including one homer apiece last season for Arizona in the NLDS, NLCS and World Series.
Something to keep in mind: The last time the Braves lost Acuña to a season-ending knee injury was July 2021. That year they were three games under .500 and five out of first place entering August. But after Anthopoulos completely remade the outfield with July trades that brought Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler, Eddie Rosario and Adam Duvall, the Braves surged to another division title and didn’t slow down until they had slugged their way to their first World Series title since 1995.
How instrumental were the outfielders Anthopoulos acquired that summer?
• Duvall had 16 homers and 45 RBIs in 55 games after being traded to Atlanta.
• Pederson started a pearl-necklace craze with Braves fans, brought major swagger to the team, and had two pinch-hit homers in the NLDS against Milwaukee.
• Rosario was NLCS MVP after scorching with 14 hits including three homers against the Dodgers.
• Soler won World Series MVP honors with three homers and six RBIs against the Astros.
Back-of-rotation blahs
Offense has been the biggest but not only reason for Atlanta’s seven-week stretch of well-under-.500 baseball.
While the first three starters – Max Fried, Chris Sale, Reynaldo López – have been as solid a frontline trio there is in the majors, 40-year-old Charlie Morton has been inconsistent in the fourth spot. A revolving cast of inexperienced top prospects and other youngsters the Braves have cycled through the back of the rotation have been underwhelming at best.
Besides those main four veteran starters, the Braves have used eight other pitchers to make 16 starts, and the only ones with an ERA under 6.46 in those games are Darius Vines (4.66 ERA, 1.45 WHIP in two starts) and A.J. Smith-Shawver, who went on the IL with an oblique strain after his scoreless season debut.
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Four have ERAs above 8.00, including prospect Spencer Schwellenbach, who’s 0-2 with an 8.38 ERA in two starts and makes his third Wednesday night at Baltimore.
Rather than keep cycling kids who aren’t ready or fringe major-league starters through the rotation, the Braves seem likely to pursue a starter.
Not a frontline starter, since the handful who might be available are all going to bring overpays from contenders in what will be a sellers’ market as the deadline approaches. But a back-of-the-rotation starter who can give them five to seven innings of solid if unspectacular work every time out, and help preserve the bullpen for its crucial role down the stretch and in the postseason.
Bullpen piece
The Braves started the season with four proven lefties in their bullpen for the first time anyone could remember. Now they have two, Aaron Bummer and Dylan Lee.
While A.J. Minter (hip inflammation) is expected back during the upcoming homestand, Tyler Matzek has missed more than a month with inflammation in his surgically repaired elbow and was transferred to the 60-day IL last week. For that reason, the Braves could look to add another lefty reliever before the deadline.
Bummer had a respectable 3.68 ERA in 22 appearances before Tuesday, but with runners in scoring position had allowed a .435 average (10-for-23) and .960 OPS. Lee has a 2.30 ERA in 19 appearances, but had a .296 opponents’ average in 32 plate appearances with runners in scoring position, along with a .733 slugging percentage and 1.027 OPS in high-leverage situations, and a .474 average (9-for-19) by first batters faced including two doubles, two homers and a 1.368 OPS.
Adding another proven lefty could ease the high-leverage workload on Minter down the stretch and avoid another situation where they go into the postseason with several of their top relievers battling fatigue.
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(Top photo of Tommy Pham: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)