One week ago, Dana Brown doubled down on a bold trade deadline proclamation. The second-year Houston Astros general manager said he will be a buyer while reiterating “I don’t see any scenario where we’re sellers.”
Expecting Brown to say anything else is foolish. He must project confidence and positivity, even when this season has produced so little of it.
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Houston’s subpar start has it in an unfamiliar situation as the sport starts to survey the buyers and sellers. The club is somewhere in between, even if Brown doesn’t want to admit it. With seven weeks until the July 30 deadline, here are three storylines to monitor as the Astros gauge their next move.
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Who is in charge?
Most of the Astros’ major moves during the past two seasons involve answering this question. In April, Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson may have offered some clarity during an appearance on the New York Post’s baseball podcast. Jackson said there are “four or five people that make the decisions with the Astros.”
Jackson, who is a special adviser to owner Jim Crane, named fellow advisers Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell as part of the group. Brown never got mentioned by name, though Jackson did reference “our GM” when discussing why the team did not sign free-agent starter Blake Snell.
Reggie tells us here why his Astros didn’t sign Snell. “We don’t play that game.” Reggie talks A’s, Yanks, Bregman. Altuve in full cast. Praise for Volpe, concern for pitchers
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Jackson’s presence around the club has increased in recent weeks, including during the last two road trips. Bagwell’s fingerprints remain on Houston’s active roster, which still includes first baseman José Abreu, whom Bagwell helped to sign two winters ago in the absence of a GM.
Now that Houston has one, it’s worth wondering if Brown has full autonomy to run the trade deadline as he sees fit. Crane inserted himself heavily during the past two deadlines, first teaming with former manager Dusty Baker to veto an agreed-upon trade for Willson Contreras in 2022 before engineering a reunion with Justin Verlander last August.
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Expecting Crane to take a complete hands-off approach is unlikely, but most of Brown’s public comments have aligned with Crane’s philosophy. He is not the sort of owner willing to concede and, three years ago, promised fans that “while I’m here, the window will always be open.”
How large will Crane allow the payroll to grow?
Crane is already carrying the largest payroll in franchise history and positioned to pay the competitive balance tax for the first time in his ownership tenure. To make meaningful additions to this club, he may have to cross further into uncharted territory.
According to Cot’s Contracts, the Astros have a $253,638,249 competitive balance tax payroll — more than $16 million over the first, $237 million threshold. Houston is less than $4 million away from crossing the next threshold at $257 million.
Doing so would deliver at least a 12 percent surcharge on the 20 percent tax Crane is already paying. Crane has exceeded the first competitive balance tax once before, in 2020, but the Astros did not have to pay the penalties due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
If the Astros are serious buyers, their lack of high-end prospect capital may force Crane to take on bigger contracts from teams looking to shed salaries, putting the owner in a predicament he hasn’t encountered since purchasing the club in 2011.
Crane could direct his baseball operations department to pare payroll before the deadline, but doing so will be difficult. Abreu’s three-year, $58.5 million contract is immovable. Finding a club to take on Crane’s three-year, $34.5 million overpay to reliever Rafael Montero will be tough, too.
That Montero is the team’s fourth-best reliever makes shopping him somewhat questionable, though Houston must consider the post-All Star break returns of both Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia. Adding them to the starting rotation and pushing existing starters to the bullpen could offset any potential deadline subtraction.
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In that vein, another potential scenario is parting with veteran setup man Ryan Pressly, whom the team demoted this winter when it signed Josh Hader. Pressly posted a 5.40 ERA and 1.64 WHIP across his first 27 appearances, but is one of the unluckiest pitchers in the sport, boasting a 2.63 FIP, .417 BABIP and .244 expected batting average.
Relievers are the most sought-after currency at every deadline and one with the postseason numbers Pressly possesses should fetch a nice haul. Pressly hasn’t allowed an earned run in his past 22 2/3 playoff innings. Teams have a .345 OPS against him across that span.
Pressly is making $14 million this season and stands to make $14 million more in 2025 if he appears in 50 games this year. Pressly’s contract contains a no-trade clause, but it’s worth wondering if he would consider waiving it to close elsewhere. Having both Hader and Bryan Abreu would still give Houston a menacing back-end of the bullpen through the 2026 season, too.
Will this team play like one worth going all-in for?
Deadlines during Crane’s ownership tenure have been dominated by “all-in” moves. The club acquired Verlander in both 2017 and 2023, landed Zack Greinke from Arizona in 2019 and had agreed-upon deals to land Bryce Harper in 2018 and Contreras in 2023 that fell through.
Whether this club merits a similar sort of splash is still a mystery. The team awoke on Tuesday seven games under .500, 7 1/2 games behind the Seattle Mariners in the American League West and with 35.6 percent odds to make the playoffs, according to FanGraphs.
Beginning with Tuesday’s game against the San Francisco Giants, the Astros will play 16 of their next 19 games against teams that entered the day at or below .500.
How Houston fares may determine the extent to which the “four or five people who make decisions with the Astros” navigate the trade deadline.
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Brown has been adamant there is “no scenario” in which Houston would sell, but if the club falters during this soft portion of its schedule, it would be a dereliction of duty to not consider reversing course and shopping impending free agent Alex Bregman while listening to the potential packages Kyle Tucker or Framber Valdez could bring in.
If the Astros author a resurgence, return to serious playoff contention and act as buyers, the team’s needs are obvious: a starting pitcher to supplement a rotation ravaged by injury and a first baseman to compensate for Abreu’s continued decline.
Pete Alonso’s potential availability will invite the most heightened speculation — and would be the type of move Crane has been prone to overseeing. Alonso’s powerful right-handed swing is well suited for Minute Maid Park’s Crawford Boxes and his impending free agency will make him somewhat more accessible as a rental for a Houston team without much prospect capital.
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(Top photo of Houston Astros owner Jim Crane: Elsa / Getty Images)