The Guardians are positioned to be aggressive this summer. They desperately need help in their starting rotation. They could use another bat. And they certainly don’t want to waste a start this sterling.
Entering Tuesday’s action, FanGraphs assigned Cleveland an 84 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 56 percent chance to win the American League Central, and that’s while baking in quite a bit of regression for a club that continues to defy expectations. How can they prevent that regression? By shoring up their deficiencies ahead of the July 30 trade deadline.
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The Guardians are in that sweet spot where they can target short-term help and long-term help since they have a young team to build around and they haven’t dealt from their farm system in years.
So, here are three trade deadline-related storylines to follow for the next seven weeks.
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Storyline 1: Finding another arm
Yes, the team with the envied pitching factory needs (at least) some seasonal help. A front-line starter? An innings-eater? A placeholder? A long-term solution?
Uh… yes.
The Guardians lack depth, which is needed to survive the season. They also could use a top-of-the-rotation starter, which might be needed to thrive in the postseason.
They rank last in the majors in starting pitching fWAR, and there’s a bit of a gap between them and the next two teams ranked at the bottom, Colorado and Miami, which is not the company you crave. They’ve compensated for it with the league’s stoutest bullpen and an offense that has proven capable of erasing deficits with timely hits and newfound power. But it’s a risky way to play and could eventually catch up to them.
Of course, everyone wants starting pitching. They could be jockeying with the Orioles, Dodgers, Brewers and others to land the top available arms.
Tanner Bibee and Ben Lively have anchored the rotation thus far. Bibee was expected to do so. Lively, signed to a league-minimum deal in December, has been a bewildering beacon of stability. After that, the Guardians continue to wait for Triston McKenzie and Logan Allen to demonstrate any consistency. Gavin Williams, finally nearing a return from a March elbow injury, should help. But this group needs more, whether it’s a mid-rotation rental (Yusei Kikuchi) or someone who would cost the front office far more (Garrett Crochet, Jesús Luzardo).
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Storyline 2: Which position player would be the right fit?
Neither Brayan Rocchio nor Gabriel Arias has offered much offensively from the shortstop position. Daniel Schneemann recently joined the mix. José Tena, Juan Brito and Angel Martínez have bounced around the infield at Triple-A Columbus. And yet, there’s still no answer as to whom will partner with Andrés Giménez in the Guardians’ middle infield for years to come.
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What if the Guardians opt to pause their internal search? They could target a short-term solution, someone who would guarantee them an immediate boost at the plate for a position that has been a black hole at the bottom of Stephen Vogt’s lineup. As of Tuesday, Cleveland’s shortstops ranked 25th in the majors in wRC+, a measure of total offensive output that rates their shortstops 23 percent below average.
Bo Bichette of the Blue Jays is the glitzy name being tossed out there, but who knows whether Toronto will wind up selling next month? If the Padres fall out of the race — which seems unlikely at the moment, given only four National League teams sported winning records as of Tuesday — Ha-Seong Kim could be an intriguing option.
It doesn’t have to be a shortstop, though. The Guardians seem one bat short. Because of their defensive versatility — Schneemann, Arias and David Fry have hopped from position to position — they could really target just about any hitter. A right-handed outfielder would make sense if they don’t want to entrust Jhonkensy Noel or Johnathan Rodriguez with a regular role. Taylor Ward from the Angels, perhaps?
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Storyline 3: Are any prospects untouchable?
The Guardians’ top prospect isn’t in their organization yet. Once they presumably select Oregon State second baseman Travis Bazzana or Georgia slugger Charlie Condon next month, that player will likely jump to the top of the team’s list. But is there anyone else the front office would refuse to move? They’ll say no player is ever untouchable, because you never know how other teams value your players until there’s some dialogue.
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Many of Cleveland’s top prospects are really young. Ralphy Velazquez, Jason Chourio and Alex Clemmey are all still teenagers. Angel Genao just turned 20. Those players might appeal to a team mired in a long-term rebuild (White Sox, Marlins, Rockies, A’s), but they haven’t had as much time in professional baseball to boost their stock.
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The key to a trade, of course, is finding a team that believes in your player more than you do. Is there another team enamored with Brito, Martínez, Tena or George Valera, players who could soon be ready for a big-league audition but don’t have a clear path to consistent playing time?
Would the Guardians consider Chase DeLauter in a trade? Or is he too essential to the club’s outfield plans next year? Injuries have slowed him this season — he’s back on the shelf with turf toe — after a standout spring training, when the team’s decision-makers had to sit him down to inform him he wasn’t making the team, even though he was never technically in big-league camp and he was never truly competing for a spot. One club executive suggested that was the only time they’ve ever had to have a conversation like that, but it demonstrated how impressive DeLauter was all spring.
No one has cemented themselves as the solution in right field. Will Brennan has underwhelmed. Estevan Florial was designated for assignment and ultimately sent to Triple-A Columbus. Fry has been the club’s most reliable option, though he has been needed at catcher, too. DeLauter could be the answer in the outfield next season, which might make the front office hesitant to include them in a deal this summer.
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(Photo of Yusei Kikuchi: Dustin Satloff / Getty Images)