Every year I take a look back at the MLB Draft class from 10 years prior to see where teams hit and where they missed in making their selections. This piece will focus on redrafting the first round to account for the players who have succeeded the most in the 2014 class. For the biggest misses from that draft class, which includes some famous names but a lot of “remember some guys” types too, click here.
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The 2014 draft class ended up giving us three legitimate superstars, and a solid group of regulars who have had flashes of stardom, although it thins out pretty quickly after that. I couldn’t have gone much further than the 30 names I have here in this “redraft,” which is my attempt to re-select the 2014 top-30 picks based on what we know of the last 10 years and what I think these players might do for the remainder of their careers.
For this exercise, I don’t include players who didn’t sign, and I don’t think about service time considerations (when you draft a player, you only control the first six-plus years of his career). I’m just going big picture here, and while I cite players’ Wins Above Replacement figures throughout (using Baseball-Reference), I didn’t just rank the players by their WAR totals; a few times I deviated quite a bit from those rankings. The gap between the oldest player on this list (Connor Joe) and the youngest (Logan Webb) is a bit over four years, so I have higher expectations going forward for the younger players, all of them high school draftees, than I do the college products, although this list is still college-heavy.
(Note: WAR figures from Baseball-Reference through games of June 10. Scouting grades are on the 20-80 scale.)
1. Trea Turner, SS
Career WAR to date: 34.9
Actual pick: Round 1, Pick 13, San Diego Padres
Player actually taken No. 1: Brady Aiken, LHP, Houston Astros
As you’ll see in a second, there are three players in this draft class who are in a tier by themselves, and you could argue for any of them in the top spot here. I’ve got Turner here because he’s a position player who still plays up the middle and appears to be in or close to his peak. I’ll bet on his production for the rest of his career beating out that of the next two guys on the list, which is no slight to either of them.
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Turner was extremely well-known as a prospect after his freshman year at NC State because of his production and 80 speed, but there were questions about whether his frame would prove durable enough to stay at shortstop and whether he’d get to any power. He was a little injury-prone earlier in his professional career but this current IL stint is his first significant one since 2019. As for the power, well, 152 homers and a .482 slugging percentage answer that question. If you’d asked me in 2014 for over/under on his homers at this point, I’d have said way under … but I would have guessed over on the 270 steals. He was just so fast.
2. Matt Chapman, 3B
Career WAR to date: 33.8
Actual pick: Round 1, Pick 25, Oakland Athletics
Player actually taken No. 2: Tyler Kolek, RHP, Miami Marlins
Chapman had a pretty clear profile out of college — elite defender, 80 arm, huge power, questionable hit tool. And that’s exactly what he’s been as a big leaguer. He’s about to crack the top 25 all-time on Baseball-Reference’s Total Zone defensive metric for third basemen despite playing at least three fewer seasons than everyone in front of him, and he’s got a 118 career wRC+ thanks to a .217 ISO even with a career strikeout rate at 27 percent. The bat is tapering off, but the defense isn’t, and he could have a long tail to the end of his career because he’s got the defense/power combination to stay a soft regular or great bench piece into his mid-30s.
3. Aaron Nola, RHP
Career WAR to date: 33.3
Actual pick: Round 1, Pick 7, Philadelphia Phillies
Player actually taken No. 3: Carlos Rodón, LHP, Chicago White Sox
Nola was the traditional “safe” college pitcher in this draft class, the guy who’d had success in a big conference for three years, showed easily the best fastball command in the draft, and projected to get to the majors very quickly. He switched his primary breaking ball from a slider to a curveball after the Phillies took him, and added a cutter in 2021, two changes that gave him unexpected upside — he looked like a nearly finished product at LSU, yet he was far from finished developing, going from a likely mid-rotation starter to a sometimes ace.
4. Logan Webb, RHP
Career WAR to date: 15.8
Actual pick: Round 4, Pick 118, San Francisco Giants
Player actually taken No. 4: Kyle Schwarber, OF, Chicago Cubs
Webb debuted in 2019, five years and two months after the draft, and wasn’t actually any good until 2021, but since the start of that year he’s been one of the best pitchers in the National League. I argue against taking high school pitchers in the first round because of their failure rate and the opportunity cost of those picks, but there are plenty of success stories in later rounds where teams took high school pitchers who needed time, development, projection, and so on.
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5. Dylan Cease, RHP
Career WAR to date: 13.0
Actual pick: Round 6, Pick 169, Chicago Cubs
Player actually taken No. 5: Nick Gordon, SS, Minnesota Twins
Cease was trending towards being a mid-first round pick out of Milton High School in Georgia when he tore his UCL and underwent Tommy John surgery. As hard as it is to believe today, even 10 years ago teams still viewed that as a big risk factor (please note my sarcasm on this), and Cease ended up sliding to the sixth round, where the Cubs went well over slot to sign him. He had an easily plus curveball before the injury, but it didn’t come all the way back, while he made slow but very steady progress in control and developing a changeup even while he changed farm systems after a trade that sent him to the White Sox for José Quintana.
6. Carlos Rodón, LHP
Career WAR to date: 17.3
Actual pick: Round 1, Pick 3, Chicago White Sox
Player actually taken No. 6: Alex Jackson, C, Seattle Mariners
Rodón had one of the best amateur sliders I’ve ever seen, at least in the summer before his draft year, when it was a grade-80 pitch, but his stuff backed up slightly in his junior year in velocity and quality, which is how he went from the most likely candidate to go No. 1 overall to the third pick. He was also badly overworked at NC State, with two outings over 130 pitches in his junior year alone, including one outing where he was on short rest and started the ninth inning at 118 pitches. He reached the majors in 2015 and had two seasons as a solid-average starter before arm trouble found him, and he didn’t have a truly above-average year on the mound until 2021.
7. Brandon Woodruff, RHP
Career WAR To date: 17.4
Actual pick: Round 11, Pick 326, Milwaukee Brewers
Player actually taken No. 7: Aaron Nola, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Woodruff has to be the pick of the draft, given the value he’s returned and where he was selected. I’m hopeful the shoulder surgery that took him out for 2024 isn’t the end of his career, as he was extremely fun to watch. Checking my own archives, I had nothing on him in his draft year, although he did make my top 100 going into 2018 (No. 93).
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The Brewers’ area scout in the deep south, Scott Nichols, recalled seeing Woodruff multiple times that year for Mississippi State, where he’d throw “three 50-60 grade pitches, fastball, slider, and changeup, but he was so inconsistent and his confidence was down because they’d take him out if he walked a guy.” Woodruff did have a miserable spring, with a 6.75 ERA and 25 walks in 37 1/3 innings, bouncing from the Bulldogs’ rotation to the bullpen. Nichols also credited Jim Rooney, who was a cross-checker for the time who focused on pitching, for pushing for Woodruff after seeing him pitch against Southern Miss at the minor league stadium in Pearl, Miss., where Woodruff had one of his best outings of the year.
The Rangers took Woodruff in the fifth round in 2011, out of high school, but when Woodruff went undrafted in the second day of the draft in 2014, Nichols saw his chance, and convinced the scouting director at the time, Bruce Seid, to take him in the 11th.
8. Justin Steele, LHP
Career WAR to date: 6.8
Actual pick: Round 5, Pick 139, Chicago Cubs
Player actually taken No. 8: Kyle Freeland, LHP, Colorado Rockies
Steele was actually No. 97 on my draft board in 2014, putting him in the third round, and I praised the Cubs’ pick at the time … not knowing that seven years later he’d pick up a cutter and become one of the best pitchers in the National League. The Cubs signed six big leaguers in this draft class — the three listed here as well as Mark Zagunis, James Norwood, and Jason Vosler.
9. Michael Conforto, OF
Career WAR to date: 16.6
Actual pick: Round 1, Pick 10, New York Mets
Player actually taken No. 9: Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Conforto may have already peaked, as he didn’t crack 1 WAR in either 2021 or 2023, sitting out 2022 after shoulder surgery, although he’s bounced back a little at the plate this year while giving ground back on defense. Through his age-27 season, though, Conforto was right behind that top trio, averaging 3.8 WAR per 162 games thanks to his combination of above-average patience and above-average power.
10. Kyle Schwarber, OF
Career WAR to date: 12.8
Actual pick: Round 1, Pick 4, Chicago Cubs
Player actually taken No. 10: Michael Conforto, OF, New York Mets
Schwarber’s WAR reflects how much of his career he’s spent in the field when he’d be better served as a DH — as would his employers — with a career wRC+ of 120 that is tied with Conforto for second in the class behind only Turner. The Cubs did reach for Schwarber at the No. 4 pick, buying into both the bat and the makeup, but even with hindsight the only realistic names they might have taken there instead were Turner or Conforto.
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11. Kyle Freeland, LHP
Career WAR to date: 16.9
Actual pick: Round 1, Pick 8, Colorado Rockies
Player actually taken No. 11: Max Pentecost, C, Toronto Blue Jays
Freeland is at exactly 1,000 MLB innings pitched, and still hasn’t had major arm surgery, although he’s on the shelf right now with an elbow injury that everyone hopes won’t require the knife. He was absolutely dominant in his draft year for Evansville, with 12 walks and 128 strikeouts in 99 2/3 innings, working very heavily with a plus slider that played up from his lower arm slot, but in pro ball he’s been more traditional in his pitch mix, although he’s never had much success with his changeup.
12. Jordan Montgomery, LHP
Career WAR to date: 11.7
Actual pick: Round 4, Pick 122, New York Yankees
Player actually taken No. 12: Kodi Medeiros, LHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Current Phillies scouting director Brian Barber had a big hand in the Yankees taking Montgomery in 2014, when the South Carolina left-hander was a command/finesse guy with great results but a fastball that I thought was too light for him to stay as a starter. For more on Montgomery, here’s a longer piece I wrote in October about how I got him wrong when he was a prospect.
13. Jack Flaherty, RHP
Career WAR to date: 11.9
Actual pick: Round 1A, Pick 34, St. Louis Cardinals
Player actually taken No. 13: Trea Turner, SS, San Diego Padres
Flaherty’s 2018-19 seasons were worth a total of 9.0 bWAR, then the injuries started, then he bounced back somewhat last year and this year to perhaps reestablish himself as an above-average starter. Flaherty went in the sandwich round with the Cardinals’ second pick, after they took FSU right-hander Luke Weaver seven picks earlier. Flaherty was the classic command high school right-hander with solid but not elite stuff, offering projection and athleticism as indicators that he’d get to some higher upside. I liked him at the time but didn’t think he was a true first-round talent, which of course was wrong — he was, in fact, a first-rounder on talent and now by results too.
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14. Alex Verdugo, OF
Career WAR to date: 12.7
Actual pick: Round 2, Pick 62, Los Angeles Dodgers
Player actually taken No. 14: Tyler Beede, RHP, San Francisco Giants
Verdugo had plenty of first-round attention going into his draft year, showing well as a two-way player at showcases in 2013, but a mixed spring at the plate and some concerns about his makeup pushed him to the second round. He’s had makeup questions throughout his professional career as well, on and off the field. As a player, he’s established himself as a strong platoon outfielder and above-average defender in a corner.
15. Mitch Keller, RHP
Career WAR to date: 5.8
Actual pick: Round 2, Pick 64, Pittsburgh Pirates
Player actually taken No. 15: Sean Newcomb, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
Keller was one of the best projection high school prospects in the class, picking up some velocity as a high school senior to pitch at 90-94 with plenty of room for more, which obviously did come true after some time in the Pirates’ system. He’s changed quite a bit as a pitcher since the draft, almost entirely ditching the curveball and changeup to add three other pitches to the mix, but he had a lot of the things scouts traditionally looked for in high school arms, including a repeatable delivery and some indication of good athleticism.
16. Erick Fedde, RHP
Career WAR to date: 3.0
Actual pick: Round 1, Pick 18, Washington Nationals
Player actually taken No. 16: Touki Toussaint, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Fedde was actually below replacement level before this year by Baseball-Reference’s metric, at minus-0.2 WAR, but after one year playing in the KBO and winning the league’s MVP award, he’s returned to become one of the AL’s best starters. (FanGraphs had him at 1.4 WAR coming into this year.) He’s a different pitcher now than he was at any point in his Nationals tenure, which started out with him on the injured list as he’d undergone Tommy John surgery two months before the draft.
17. Rhys Hoskins, 1B
Career WAR to date: 11.4
Actual pick: Round 5, Pick 142, Philadelphia Phillies
Player actually taken No. 17: Brandon Finnegan, LHP, Kansas City Royals
Hoskins hit extremely well for Sacramento State as an amateur but didn’t face a lot of quality pitching, and as a right-handed hitting first baseman who was neither a good defender nor a good athlete, he had a lot working against him at the time of the draft. He hit right away in pro ball, and I actually caught him in Low A, where he was clearly too advanced and old for the level, and wrote at the time that he had some of the same positive attributes I’d missed in Paul Goldschmidt. Goldschmidt had the athleticism and defensive chops that Hoskins didn’t, of course, but I think Hoskins has borne out the Phillies’ selection of him and my optimism even off a look where he was facing much younger competition.
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18. Ramón Laureano, OF
Career WAR to date: 12.8
Actual pick: Round 16, Pick 461, Houston Astros
Player actually taken No. 18: Erick Fedde, RHP, Washington Nationals
Northeastern Oklahoma A&M had produced only three big leaguers before the 2014 draft, but that year saw three more players taken from the two-year school, all of whom have reached the majors: Laureano, Dean Deetz, and Jake Jewell. Laureano is by far their most successful player ever, and oddly enough, they haven’t had a player drafted since he and his two teammates were taken.
19. Brian Anderson, 3B/OF
Career WAR to date: 9.9
Actual pick: Round 3, Pick 76, Miami Marlins
Player actually taken No. 19: Nick Howard, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Anderson is back in the majors again and has a chance to push that WAR total into double-digits, although he hasn’t been more than a fringe bench player since 2021 and had just two years where he was good enough to be a regular.
20. Spencer Turnbull, RHP
Career WAR to date: 4.9
Actual pick: Round 2, Pick 63, Detroit Tigers
Player actually taken No. 20: Casey Gillaspie, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays
I do enjoy the thought that the Phillies’ brass looked at the roster and said “what if we made the whole thing out of 2014 draft picks?” Turnbull was just a back-end starter for the Tigers for a few years, blew out, missed essentially two seasons, and now looks like a brand-new guy for the Phillies. As an amateur, he was an innings-eater for Alabama, lacking much upside but with the potential to be a workhorse starter in pro ball, which he was until his arm barked.
21. Jeff Hoffman, RHP
Career WAR to date: 3.1
Actual pick: Round 1, Pick 9, Toronto Blue Jays
Player actually taken No. 21: Bradley Zimmer, OF, Cleveland Guardians
Hoffman was outstanding early in 2014 for East Carolina but blew out partway through the season, undergoing Tommy John surgery well before the draft. He threw very hard with a quick arm and a plus changeup, although the fastball was straight and I think today he’d be dinged for its shape, although back then teams lacked such data. Toronto traded him to Colorado a year after drafting him in the Troy Tulowitzki package, and he was a replacement-level pitcher for the Rockies and Reds until 2023, when he signed with the Phillies on the second day of the season. The Phillies helped him rework his slider so it was harder and tighter, and he’s been one of the best relievers in baseball since then — FanGraphs has him third among all MLB relievers in fWAR in that span, behind only Tanner Scott and Emmanuel Clase.
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22. Michael Kopech, RHP
Career WAR to date: 4.7
Actual pick: Round 1A, Pick 34, Boston Red Sox
Player actually taken No. 22: Grant Holmes, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Kopech has had a long, twisty road to what seems to finally be the ideal role for him, working in late-game relief for the White Sox. The Red Sox traded him to Chicago for Chris Sale in December 2016, after which he had two strong years in the White Sox’s system, debuting in September 2018 … only to blow out his elbow after four starts. He didn’t return until 2021, and after he led the AL in walks last year, Chicago seems to have settled on using him in short relief. He’s always thrown hard, and always had some trouble with control and command.
23. John Means, LHP
Career WAR to date: 10.3
Actual pick: Round 11, Pick 331, Baltimore Orioles
Player actually taken No. 23: Derek Hill, OF, Detroit Tigers
Means gave the Orioles two outstanding full seasons plus another strong one in the pandemic year, but he’s thrown 52 innings total in the last three years and just underwent his second Tommy John surgery, keeping him out until at least late 2025 and I would have to think putting his career in some jeopardy. He showed above-average control in college but never missed many bats and had a fringy fastball; after he reached the majors his fastball velocity jumped nearly 4 mph and his slider saw a comparable increase.
24. Tanner Scott, RHP
Career WAR to date: 6.3
Actual pick: Round 6, Pick 181, Baltimore Orioles
Player actually taken No. 24: Cole Tucker, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
Scott spent a year at Division II Notre Dame College in Ohio, transferred to two-year Howard College in Texas, and signed with the Orioles in the summer of 2014, right around his 20th birthday. He probably would have seen the majors sooner and had more success early on had the Orioles not tried to make him a starter in 2017 when he was already having serious trouble throwing strikes — he walked 57 guys in 64 1/3 innings as a reliever in 2016, and I have no idea why you’d see that and think it would get better in the rotation.
25. Jordan Romano, RHP
Career WAR to date: 7.6
Actual pick: Round 10, Pick 294, Toronto Blue Jays
Player actually taken No. 25: Matt Chapman, 3B, Oakland Athletics
Romano signed for just $25,000 out of Oral Roberts University, and the Ontario native had a completely unremarkable pro career until 2020, his second year as a full-time reliever and the first where he threw the slider as his primary pitch. His battery-mate at ORU, by the way, was Jose Trevino (Round 6, Pick 186, by the Texas Rangers, WAR to date: 4.1).
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26. Lane Thomas, OF
Career WAR to date: 6.0
Actual pick: Round 5, Pick 144, Toronto Blue Jays
Player actually taken No. 26: Michael Chavis, SS, Boston Red Sox
More than half of Thomas’ career value came in 2023, when he generated 3.3 WAR for the Nationals despite a .315 OBP and 26 percent strikeout rate, thanks to his biggest power output at any level since 2018. His batted-ball metrics didn’t really back it up, for what that’s worth, but the analytics police don’t come to take your WAR back, either. The Blue Jays took Thomas out of a high school in Knoxville, Tenn., and traded him to St. Louis in July 2017 for international bonus pool money. The Cards dealt him to the Nats at the 2021 trade deadline for Jon Lester. The good news here for Jays fans is that their 2017 international free agent class might still produce a couple of big leaguers: Panamanian shortstop Leo Jiménez is hitting .266/.410/.427 in Triple A, while the oft-injured righty Eric Pardinho is healthy and pitching well for Double-A New Hampshire, sitting 93-95 again. Maybe that trade will still work out for them.
27. Luke Weaver, RHP
Career WAR to date: 1.5
Actual pick: Round 1, Pick 27, St. Louis Cardinals
Player actually taken No. 27: Luke Weaver, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Weaver was a starter at Florida State and one of those guys who was just supposed to go in the first round before the season started … but he never had an average breaking ball, and I didn’t think it was a first-round package or even a definite starter without that, especially since neither his four-seamer nor changeup was clearly plus. Ten years on, he still doesn’t have an average breaking ball, but he’s got a plus cutter, and he’s in relief, and he’s been really, really good in a small sample this year. FanGraphs values his career to date quite differently, at 7.4 WAR, but I think when a guy goes nearly 600 innings with a BABIP that’s higher (worse) than league average, it might not just be a fluke.
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28. Connor Joe, OF
Career WAR to date: 3.7
Actual pick: Round 1, Pick 39, Pittsburgh Pirates
Player actually taken No. 28: Foster Griffin, LHP, Kansas City Royals
I thought this was a huge reach by the Pirates, but Joe has proved me wrong … although he had a circuitous route back to Pittsburgh, as the Pirates traded him to Atlanta in 2017, and he was then traded to the Dodgers, selected in the Rule 5 draft, traded again, returned to the Dodgers, and then opted out of the 2020 season while battling testicular cancer before becoming a free agent. In the three-plus years since then, he’s had nearly 1,400 PA of slightly above-average offensive performance because he does one thing especially well: He makes pitchers throw him strikes. There’s a lesson in there, I think.
29. Austin Slater, OF
Career WAR to date: 4.7
Actual pick: Round 8, Pick 238, San Francisco Giants
Player actually taken No. 29: Alex Blandino, SS, Cincinnati Reds
Forgive me a tiny victory lap, but I liked Slater a ton that year, ranking him No. 82 on my board, based almost entirely off scouting him myself. I thought he could really hit, and I thought he was a good enough athlete to play either outfield corner and do it well. He never did get to more power, but he’s been a league-average hitter in over 1,500+ PA with above-average defense in right and below-average defense in center. I don’t usually rely so much on my own evaluations, because I see players so briefly, but for whatever reason I had some conviction here.
30. Austin Gomber, LHP
Career WAR to date: 4.7
Actual pick: Round 4, Pick 135, St. Louis Cardinals
Player actually taken No. 30: Luis Ortiz, RHP, Texas Rangers
Gomber was a crafty lefty at Florida Atlantic with extremely low walk rates and fringy stuff, along with some funk and deception in the delivery to help it play up. He was still 20 at the draft and didn’t turn 21 until that November, which the Cardinals were big on at the time, like wearing an onion on your belt. Gomber’s biggest contribution as a player has been pitching in Colorado, as the Cards sent him west in the trade for Nolan Arenado.
(Top photo illustration of Trea Turner (left): Mike Janes / Four Seam Images via Associated Press; and Matt Chapman (right): Jeff Chiu / Associated Press)