It’s been almost 50 years since the Phillies had a divisional lead this big, this soon. They were 9 1/2 games ahead of the Pittsburgh Pirates in the old National League East through 65 games in 1976. Major League Baseball had 24 teams.
The Phillies have won only 11 division titles since baseball realigned in 1969. So, a nine-game lead just 65 games into the season is something.
The team is back in America following a two-game trip to London and had a day in Boston to recover from the transatlantic flight. The Phillies (45-20) will return with Zack Wheeler on the mound Tuesday at Fenway Park. For now, here are nine thoughts for a nine-game lead …
1. It’s harder and harder to not view every nine innings of Phillies baseball in the greater context — what it means for October. This is the luxury of a nine-game lead (and the best record in the sport). It allows Rob Thomson to manage with more leeway. He can forgo a slight short-term advantage to protect the longer-term interests. The Phillies are trying to win the division and as many games as possible, but October is what matters.
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So, Gregory Soto enters the sixth inning of a tight game with a lefty at the plate and two outs because that’s a potential spot for him in October. He is here to beat lefties. He is fifth or sixth on the bullpen depth chart, and the Phillies need to know if they can trust him. They want to keep Soto in the mix for bigger spots.
He’ll have to be better. He will have more chances in the coming months.
2. That leeway extends to the lineup, and the Phillies will probably field some unusual combinations in the first two days at Fenway Park. The club’s concern surrounding the London trip was the injury risk afterward. So, expect more shuffling.
J.T. Realmuto is on pace to start only 127 games at catcher. He’s started 130 in each of the past two seasons. That is the number he targeted again for 2024, but there are mounting reasons for the Phillies to consider a more conservative plan. Realmuto is playing through right knee soreness that first bothered him in early May. The Phillies have padded Realmuto’s schedule with more rest days. They know how important he is to this whole thing.
Realmuto has hit .135/.200/.189 since May 25 while starting nine of 13 games in that stretch. The Phillies lifted Realmuto, considered one of their best base runners, for a pinch runner in the ninth inning of Sunday’s London finale versus the New York Mets.
Again, with October in mind, everyone might be willing to peel back.
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3. The Phillies appear to have four All-Star locks — Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suárez, Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm. (Bohm should be the starter at third base, given the down years for some of the typical stars at that position.) Every team needs a representative, which could hurt other deserving Phillies. Who else should be considered? Jeff Hoffman and Matt Strahm, without question.
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A crazy thing: Harper has yet to play in an All-Star Game as a Phillie. He made it once, in 2022, but could not play because a wayward Blake Snell pitch broke Harper’s thumb in late June of that year.
4. A robust rotation has allowed Thomson to be judicious with how he pushes his bullpen arms. The Phillies have had only 21 appearances in which a reliever has recorded four or more outs. That, entering Monday, was the fewest multi-inning games by a bullpen in baseball — by a wide margin. The Royals had 29 such appearances. The Brewers, by comparison, had 72 and Arizona had 69.
Different sport.
It’s not as if the Phillies have relievers who cannot go multiple innings at a time; they feel their effectiveness and durability is more sustainable with one-inning outings. Getting four or five outs in an outing can become an emphasis later in the season to prepare for October.
Team officials point to Strahm as one of the beneficiaries of the lighter load; he had logged 42 1/3 innings by this point last season because he was needed in the rotation and for multi-inning relief outings. He’s at 26 innings in 2024. His stuff has been more consistent. He reached back for 95 mph to record a big strikeout in Sunday’s game.
5. One more bullpen observation: Orion Kerkering was always going to throw more four-seam fastballs this season than last. When the Phillies promoted him late last season, they spammed the sweeping slider because it had a certain movement that most big-league sliders didn’t have. Kerkering was at the end of the longest season of his career. His fastball might not have had the same juice in September or October that it did in July. But the Phillies had a need. So, they treated Kerkering almost as a novelty by calling for 70 percent sliders.
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He has more confidence in the four-seam fastball now — but that is because it’s a bigger part of the attack plan in 2024 than it was in 2023, when the Phillies were trying to surprise hitters with the unusual slider.
Right now, he looks like a pitcher learning how good he is.
6. Trea Turner could return by this weekend in Baltimore, Thomson told reporters in London, and it would be a huge boost. Friday would mark six weeks since Turner strained his left hamstring. He had hoped to beat that original timeline and was on track to do so until a setback in late May.
Phillies shortstops have hit .287/.368/.500 in the 32 games Turner’s missed. That .868 OPS ranked fifth among all teams in that span. Edmundo Sosa (and a little Bryson Stott) did a remarkable job in Turner’s absence.
Sosa has cooled down over the past 14 days. He’s hitting .243/.263/.405 during that time. He’ll return to a reserve role once Turner is back. There is talk of Sosa seeing time in the outfield, possibly as a platoon partner for Brandon Marsh, and Thomson has not extinguished that speculation. But it’s something the club has yet to have serious discussions about.
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7. Marsh, who is eligible to be activated Wednesday, could also return this week. He spent the weekend doing workouts at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. He could join the Phillies in Boston to continue that work. He might not need a minor-league rehab game for his strained right hamstring, which the team considered a mild injury.
If both Turner and Marsh return later this week, the Phillies could face their toughest roster decision to date. Weston Wilson, a reserve infielder with minor-league options, can go back to Triple A. But clearing another spot is tougher. David Dahl replaced Marsh on the active roster and is 4-for-6 with three extra-base hits, including a pinch-hit homer in London. He cannot be optioned to the minors. It’s not much of a sample, but he hit the ball hard at Triple A and might be a competent lefty bat for the bench.
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Coming out of spring training, the Phillies did not believe they needed a traditional lefty bench bat. Those pinch-hit chances late in games against right-handed relievers, Thomson said, would go to Whit Merrifield. But the veteran has disappointed. There are no indications the Phillies have reached a breaking point with Merrifield. He’ll stick around.
So, it’s Dahl or Cristian Pache, who has not played much. Pache offers more defense. He is a natural platoon partner for Marsh. He is insurance for Johan Rojas in center. The Phillies could hypothetically demote Rojas to the minors, although that would leave them with two outfield platoons — Marsh and Pache in center with Dahl and Merrifield in left — and that could be a net negative. Marsh’s work in left field has been exceptional. They would prefer to leave him there.
Something to monitor.
8. Two notable Phillies prospects — Aidan Miller and George Klassen — were promoted to High-A Jersey Shore after Sunday’s game. The two biggest standouts in the organization so far this year were due for a new challenge.
The promotions were first reported by Milb Central.
Miller, the 27th overall pick in last summer’s MLB Draft, has ascended prospect rankings. He hit for power and average at Low-A Clearwater. His improved work at shortstop has prompted evaluators to rethink whether he has to move to a corner, like third base. The promotion is aggressive, but the Phillies felt he was ready.
It would be surprising if the Phillies made Miller available in trade talks this summer. He’s spent less than a year in the farm system and the initial returns have been enormous. Miller turned 20 on Sunday — the same day he received the promotion.
Klassen is a breakout pitcher who, at 22, was ready for a more age-appropriate level. He posted an 0.71 ERA in 38 innings with 57 strikeouts and 12 walks in the Florida State League. He throws hard. He did not throw strikes in college, but he has in pro ball.
Now, against better hitters, can he succeed without being able to blow a fastball by everyone?
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9. All of the talk about the National League right now is about the mediocre pileup in the middle. It’s not good. But, last season, the No. 5 and No. 6 seeds in the NL entered the postseason with 84 wins. The Arizona Diamondbacks were outscored by 15 runs during the season. The Miami Marlins were outscored by 57 runs.
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It might look bad now, but here’s guessing the last team into the NL playoff field this season boasts a more formidable roster than Miami did. The San Diego Padres and Cincinnati Reds could be dangerous in a short series. Same for the Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants. It’s just another reason winning the NL East is important for the Phillies.
(Top photo of J.T. Realmuto: Chris Szagola / Associated Press)