Jason Kidd needed the Celtics to beat themselves, because the Mavericks can’t

BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - JUNE 09: Head coach Jason Kidd of the Dallas Mavericks speaks to his team during a timeout in the first quarter Game Two of the 2024 NBA Finals against the Boston Celtics at TD Garden on June 09, 2024 in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
By John Hollinger
Jun 10, 2024

BOSTON — Was Jason Kidd’s NBA Finals news conference gambit on Saturday an early admission of a humbling reality?

The Dallas coach tried playing a mental game by saying that Jaylen Brown was Boston’s best player and not Jayson Tatum. That part isn’t true, but the underlying logic of his Jedi mind trick attempt looks ironclad: He was trying to get the Celtics to beat themselves in Game 2 because he knew the Dallas Mavericks couldn’t in Game 1.

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Neither Boston nor Tatum played to their usual standard on Sunday, with Tatum shooting 6 of 22 and bizarrely passing up a wide-open 3 at the end of the first half, and the normally sharpshooting Celtics making just 10 of their 39 3s despite numerous wide-open attempts.

It didn’t matter. The Celtics still prevailed 105-98 to take a 2-0 series lead into Wednesday’s Game 3 in Dallas. Yes, the Mavericks had opportunities. They will rue eight missed free throws and a missed foul on Derrick White’s late block on P.J. Washington and are capable of playing better themselves.

However, failing to beat Boston on a night when the Celtics fell so far short of their peak doesn’t instill much confidence that the Mavs can do so four times in the next five games.

In the end, Kidd’s observation may have been half right in a way he didn’t intend. The salient point here isn’t whether Brown is Boston’s best player; it’s that Tatum doesn’t need to be. Nor does Brown, for that matter. Of the seven best players in this series, five wear green.

On this night, the two biggest stars were Jrue Holiday, who had 26 points and 11 rebounds to go with several spectacular defensive stands, and White, who hit two tough fourth-quarter jumpers and came up with that amazing late block on a dunk attempt by Washington. (Even if Washington was fouled by Jaylen Brown, the effort and block by White was ridiculous.) Similarly, in Game 1, it was Kristaps Porziņģis who starred, scoring 20 points in 21 minutes while Tatum labored to a 6-of-16 night with six turnovers.

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Dallas has now lost its last six meetings against the Celtics. In the four games against Boston this year, the Mavs lost by nine, 28, 18 and seven, averaging just 101.8 points per contest.

Boston seemingly has the formula down at both ends: Force mismatches on offense that get Dallas into rotation and lead to either catch-and-shoot 3s or drives for layups, and at the other end, take away those same shots and live with Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving shooting contested jumpers one-on-one.

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Dončić got off to a hot start — having particular success against Tatum when he drew him in switches — and finished the night with 32 points, 11 assists and 11 rebounds. He left money on the table, too, by missing four of his eight free throws. Even as Boston makes him score, he’s still had occasional moments of utter brilliance as a passer. I mean, what on Earth:

Nonetheless, those top-line numbers mask how hard it was for him to get there. Boston forced eight turnovers from Dončić, but that’s only part of the story. The more important takeaway is that he’s unlikely to shoot as successfully in future games on the same shots.

Yes, Doncic managed to make seven of his 11 non-paint 2s despite having a Celtics player draped all over him on nearly every one. But this shot chart is tough sledding, my friends:

Dončić didn’t get a shot inside the charge circle until the game’s final minute. That was his only basket of the fourth quarter. Already suffering from multiple physical problems entering the game, Dončić was worn down by the Celtics, who forced him to work for his points on offense and relentlessly targeting him on defense. Again, Boston could do this because of its superior bevy of options; with five good starters, there’s no place for Dončić to hide.

“My turnovers and my missed free throws cost us the game,” Dončić said.

In a very technical sense, that was true, but this wasn’t exactly an outlier for the Mavs, who were 27th in the league in free-throw shooting at 75.8 percent. No, the real thing that cost Dallas the game is the same story: The Mavs’ secondary players aren’t nearly as good as Boston’s.

The most amazing thing about this game, in fact, was how many of the most crucial sequences didn’t include either Brown or Tatum. The block by White, obviously, but consider several others:

  • The banked 3-pointer by Payton Pritchard to end the third quarter.
  • Two late-clock bailout shots by White — a running floater and a 3-pointer — in the fourth quarter that salvaged a six-minute stretch in which Boston only had four other points.
  • The incredible hustle by 38-year-old Al Horford to sprint back out of the corner after a Tatum turnover, making up a 10-foot margin on Dončić to snuff out a Dallas transition opportunity, and then recovering to challenge a Dereck Lively II shot:
  • Holiday unbelievably deflecting two passes in the backcourt to force a late fourth-quarter steal that he then converted into a backbreaking 3-pointer.

  • Perhaps underscoring all of this was the offensive outburst by Holiday, who burned Dallas for nine layups by roaming the dunker spot, often with Irving forced to be the “big man” with him while a Dallas shot blocker was marooned at the 3-point line.

Holiday had 17 points in the first half alone … can you imagine the fifth option for Dallas having a 17-point half? Dončić was the only Mav to exceed 17 points for the entire game Sunday.

The flip side goes on the offensive end; while Dončić and Irving took turns getting cooked by the Celtics, Boston’s stars were mostly lights out on defense. For instance, here’s Irving taking 14 dribbles against Brown and getting absolutely nowhere before turning it over.

Are you overwhelmed yet? Boston has six starters, essentially, and two knockdown shooters coming off the bench to keep things moving. Porziņģis might be limited after having to leave this contest late in the fourth quarter, but otherwise, there wasn’t much optimistic news here for the Mavs.

As it turns out, there’s a reason Boston went 64-18 with a historic scoring margin in the regular season. Yes, at times, the Celtics can get sluggish and satisfied. At their worst, they needlessly milk the shot clock and turn down layups to hunt kick-out 3s, and Brown especially can get caught up in mano-a-mano hero ball. (Not Sunday, however — seven assists!) Catch them when that happens and the 3s aren’t falling, and you might have a chance.

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In other words, when these guys lose, it’s usually because they beat themselves. And that, basically, is the sliver of a chance for Dallas to beat this team four times in seven at full strength … and why Kidd felt the need to probe that vulnerability when he could. For these Mavs, against this opponent, it’s not clear how they can win four times without the Celtics’ help.


Required Reading

(Photo of Jason Kidd and the Mavericks: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)

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John Hollinger

John Hollinger ’s two decades of NBA experience include seven seasons as the Memphis Grizzlies’ Vice President of Basketball Operations and media stints at ESPN.com and SI.com. A pioneer in basketball analytics, he invented several advanced metrics — most notably, the PER standard. He also authored four editions of “Pro Basketball Forecast.” In 2018 he was honored with the Lifetime Achievement Award at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. Follow John on Twitter @johnhollinger