In today’s NHL, players aren’t just judged on their ability, they’re graded on value and efficiency — how large is their impact relative to their contract? Last week we looked at some of the best bargain contracts in the NHL from this past season, now let’s look at players who didn’t live up to their contracts in 2023-24 and how much longer those deals will be on the books for.
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Here’s how we’ll conduct this exercise.
• We’ll be using Dom Luszczyszyn’s player model as a measuring stick. Net Rating provides an all-in-one performance metric that weighs factors such as point production, play-driving, defensive impact, penalties drawn, blocked shots, faceoffs, penalty-kill impact and more. That impact is then translated to a market value — what that player’s contributions should be worth — and that market value is compared to their actual cap hit.
• A player isn’t “bad” if they end up on one of the inefficient lists. It just means they weren’t quite worth their cap hit in 2023-24, at least from a statistical perspective. There are plenty of high-end NHLers that you’ll see throughout the piece, many of whom actually played very well this season.
• We’ll only be identifying players who underperformed their cap hit by at least $1 million.
Players’ Net Rating will be prorated over 82 games in case they missed some time because of injuries
• No goalies will be analyzed.
• There are blindspots in the model like any statistical measure — it’s not perfect. With that in mind, I used the model to come up with an initial list of players for each team, but I used personal discretion on occasion to remove a player from the “inefficient” contracts pile if I felt there was an obvious flaw/blind spot in the model’s evaluation.
• Players who spent over half of the season injured (Trevor Zegras, for example), on LTIR or the NHL Player Assistance program weren’t included.
• Players who changed teams midseason weren’t included either.
Without further ado, let’s start with the Eastern Conference teams.
Boston Bruins
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-2 | $3.69M | 0 (UFA) |
Matt Grzelcyk: Grzelcyk delivered excellent underlying numbers in years past but he battled through injuries, inconsistent play and declining offense in 2023-24. Boston was outshot and out-chanced by wide margins during his five-on-five workload. Grzelcyk appeared in three playoff games, with Mason Lohrei and Parker Wotherspoon leapfrogging him on the depth chart.
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Buffalo Sabres
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-1 | $9M | 3 | |
-8 | $4.75M | 0 (UFA) | |
+2 | $7.1M | 6 | |
-7 | $2.5M | 0 (UFA) | |
-15 | $2M | 0 (UFA) |
Jeff Skinner: Paid like an elite goal scorer, Skinner fell from 35 goals and 82 points in 2022-23 to 24 goals and 46 points this season.
Victor Olofsson is a one-dimensional sniper who can’t score anymore, registering 15 points in 51 games despite making $4.75 million.
Dylan Cozens will be under some pressure next season. The talented center broke out with 31 goals and 68 points in 2022-23, which earned him a lucrative seven-year extension. He regressed to 18 goals and 47 points this season, on top of slipping defensive numbers. Cozens, 23, has the age and elite pedigree to bounce back and make this contract look rosy again, but we’ll see if it materializes.
In the bottom six, Zemgus Girgensons ($2.5 million) and Tyson Jost ($2 million) were replacement-level depth forwards each being paid like premium bottom-six players.
Carolina Hurricanes
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-4 | $4.82M | 6 |
Jesperi Kotkaniemi: Signed to a rare offer sheet three seasons ago, Kotkaniemi hasn’t lived up to his potential in Carolina. The long, rangy 23-year-old failed to seize the second-line center mantle despite being given plenty of opportunity. He scored 12 goals and 27 points this season, which is a 16-point drop-off compared to 2022-23.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
+4 | $9.75M | 5 | |
-3 | $6.25M | 7 | |
-4 | $4M | 2 | |
-7 | $2.5M | 1 | |
-5 | $2.33M | 0 (RFA) | |
0 | $4.725M | 1 |
Johnny Gaudreau: Columbus’ roster has promising young talent and an elite prospect pipeline, but the club’s cap sheet is littered with overpaid veterans. Gaudreau scored 12 goals and 60 points in 82 games this season. That’s a disappointing total, but context matters because he had practically zero help.
The Blue Jackets don’t have a true first-line center for Gaudreau to play with, there wasn’t enough supporting talent on the power play and he suffered from bad luck as his shooting percentage hit a career-low 7.5 percent and he was only credited with a point on 60 percent of his line’s five-on-five goals (an uncharacteristically low individual points percentage usually indicates misfortune). Gaudreau’s 60 points were still 18 more than the club’s next-best forward. So yes, Gaudreau needs to produce significantly more to live up to his contract, but a lot of that could be fixed by the environment around him improving.
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You could easily argue that Damon Severson was instead Columbus’ “worst” contract in 2023-24. He had a nightmare season, regularly making huge mistakes and surrendering goals against at one of the worst rates in the NHL. That’s not the only bloated blue-line contract as Erik Gudbranson and Ivan Provorov are modestly overpaid too, but those deals aren’t nearly as scary as the seven years left on Severson’s contract.
This list doesn’t even include Adam Boqvist, who missed a lot of time with injury, and Patrik Laine, who was limited to 18 games and entered the NHL Player Assistance program in January.
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Detroit Red Wings
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-8 | $4.75M | 2 | |
-2 | $5.625M | 3 | |
-10 | $3.4M | 2 | |
-8 | $3.4M | 2 | |
-5 | $4M | 1 | |
0 | $4.75M | 0 (UFA) |
Ben Chiarot: This one was honestly a little bit surprising. I expected Chiarot to be on this list somewhere because he’s not quite a $4.75 million AAV caliber player but by the eye, he looked much steadier in his second season with the Red Wings compared to 2022-23. With that said, Chiarot still leaked 3.43 goals against per hour at five-on-five — the worst rate among all Detroit defensemen — so you can understand why the analytics are so down on him, even if his actual play didn’t seem quite this poor.
Andrew Copp defends well but he only scored 33 points in 79 games and struggled driving play, with the Red Wings controlling 43.2 percent of five-on-five scoring chances during his shifts. That’s not good enough for a player being paid like a fringe second-line center.
Justin Holl couldn’t even consistently crack the Red Wings lineup, which is problematic considering his $3.4 million price tag.
Jake Walman had rough defensive numbers on the top pair, but he and Moritz Seider are also fed some of the most extreme, difficult matchups in the NHL. That context is crucial and I wouldn’t be worried about Walman’s contract.
Robby Fabbri (32 points in 68 games) and David Perron (47 points in 76 games) fell modestly short of living up to their contracts in Detroit’s middle six.
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Florida Panthers
None: The Panthers have managed their books exceptionally well. Their roster is littered with excellent value contracts and they aren’t held back by any inefficient skater deals.
Montreal Canadiens
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-10 | $5.5M | 3 | |
-3 | $6.5M | 3 | |
-12 | $3.25M | 0 (UFA) |
Josh Anderson: The Habs lugged around a slew of dead-weight forward contracts this season. Josh Anderson has seemingly lost his identity and confidence as he scored nine goals and 20 points in 78 games.
Brendan Gallagher’s body has deteriorated over the years. He was finally healthy, scoring 16 goals and 31 points in 77 games but he’s nowhere near the top-six stud that he was in his prime.
Tanner Pearson scored 15 points in 54 games on a $3.25 million cap hit. Vancouver paid Montreal a third-round pick before the season to offload the contract and acquire Casey DeSmith as a backup goalie, so the Habs were compensated for taking on Pearson but the price feels light in retrospect.
Christian Dvorak missed most of the season with injury so he didn’t qualify for this list. But even when Dvorak has been healthy, he hasn’t come close to living up to his $4.45 million ticket.
New Jersey Devils
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
+3 | $8.8M | 7 | |
-5 | $4.4M | 3 | |
-8 | $3.4M | 4 | |
+3 | $6M | 3 |
Timo Meier: Context is key here. Yes, Meier wasn’t a dominant, top-line caliber force this season and underperformed his $8.8 million cap hit but he was hampered by injuries. Meier revealed that he was playing through a double MCL injury and that he was dealing with an oblique problem later in the season as well. With that in mind, 28 goals in 69 games doesn’t sound bad at all. As long as he arrives at training camp healthy, there’s no reason to fret about his contract.
On the blue line, John Marino and Jonas Siegenthaler had nightmare campaigns. They each had some of the worst defensive metrics among top-four defensemen around the league.
Ondrej Palat only produced 11 goals and 31 points in 71 games but his impact goes far beyond the point totals. He drove excellent two-way metrics, with the model grading his all-around impact at around $4.7 million this season, which is only a modest overpay.
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New York Islanders
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-9 | $3.5M | 6 | |
-1 | $5.75M | 5 | |
-2 | $5M | 2 | |
+5 | $7M | 2 |
Scott Mayfield: Mayfield had a challenging, injury-plagued season. The physical 6-foot-5 defender’s play-driving numbers fell off a cliff this year, with the Isles controlling 41.4 percent of shot attempts during his five-on-five shifts. Hopefully, a cleaner bill of health can power a bounce back for a player who’s typically been reliable.
At his peak, Adam Pelech was one of the league’s best shutdown defensemen. He’s been hindered by injuries recently, with 2023-24 marking the first time in his NHL career that he’s surrendered more than 2.6 goals against per hour at five-on-five in a full season.
Jean-Gabriel Pageau is a beast in the faceoff circle and a reliable penalty killer, but 11 goals and 33 points simply isn’t enough offense relative to his $5 million cap hit.
Captain Anders Lee had surprisingly strong play-driving metrics but he only produced 20 goals and 37 points for $7 million.
New York Rangers
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-3 | $8M | 2 | |
-10 | $3.64M | 3 | |
+10 | $8.5M | 6 |
Jacob Trouba: Trouba isn’t a high-end top-four defenseman anymore, which is a problem given his mammoth $8 million cap hit. He needs to bounce back or the Rangers need to find an exit route on his contract.
Barclay Goodrow came up clutch with some huge playoff moments, but his regular season wasn’t close to good enough. He brings intangibles and defensive value, but four goals and 12 points in 80 games isn’t enough for a near $3.5 million player. On Wednesday, Goodrow was claimed by the Sharks on waivers.
Mika Zibanejad obviously belongs in a much different conversation than Trouba and Goodrow. Zibanejad is still an excellent top-six center, it’s just that he performed at the level of a $7.5 million player rather than an $8.5 million contributor, according to the model. He needs to produce more at five-on-five (eight goals and 25 points at five-on-five this year).
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Ottawa Senators
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-2 | $7.95M | 6 | |
+1 | $8M | 4 | |
-2 | $4.6M | 1 | |
-15 | $2.5M | 0 (UFA) | |
+8 | $8.35M | 7 |
Josh Norris: You have to feel for Norris. Since inking an eight-year, $7.95 million AAV extension two summers ago, Norris has only been healthy for 58 games because of multiple major shoulder injuries. When he’s played, he hasn’t looked like the same player who potted 35 goals in 66 games in 2021-22. Norris scored 16 goals and 30 points in 50 games this season, which isn’t too shabby, but his two-way results were concerning. The Sens controlled 44.6 percent of scoring chances and 42.6 percent of the actual goals during Norris’ five-on-five shifts.
Thomas Chabot is prone to defensive gaffes and isn’t worth the full freight of his contract, but he’s still a very good top-four defenseman. I’d also bet on his underlying numbers improving considerably whenever the environment around him improves. He’s well-suited to being the club’s second LD after Jake Sanderson, even though he’s paid at a bit of a premium.
Jakob Chychrun was a poor fit in Ottawa. He’s extremely talented and should blossom elsewhere, but the numbers, eye test and roster fit were all lacking.
Dominik Kubalik was expected to provide crucial secondary scoring but was instead a huge disappointment, scoring 15 points in 74 games.
Tim Stützle’s contract should age beautifully long-term, especially as the cost for top centers continues inflating, but 2023-24 was a down year. He dropped off from 39 goals and 90 points the previous season to 18 goals and 70 points.
Philadelphia Flyers
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-5 | $5.875M | 1 | |
+5 | $7.75M | 6 | |
-1 | $5.1M | 3 | |
-13 | $1.75M | 2 |
Cam Atkinson: Atkinson’s production nosedived after a hot start to the season. The 35-year-old right-wing sniper scored five goals in his final 55 games and finished the season pointless in his last 23 contests.
Sean Couturier raced to 21 points in his first 26 games, while also being an above-average two-way play driver. He was playing through injuries in the second half — he got sports hernia surgery at the end of the season — which caused both his production and defensive metrics to crater. That included a couple of highly publicized healthy scratches soon after being named captain. Couturier still has the talent to be a top-flight two-way center, it’s just a question of whether his body can hold up.
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Rasmus Ristolainen has improved in Philadelphia but he’s not a true top-four defender, which means he’s overpaid at $5.1 million.
Nic Deslauriers’ statistical impact isn’t great, but a $1.75 million AAV is totally fine for a rebuilding Flyers team that benefits from his physicality, leadership and intangibles.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-9 | $3.125M | 0 (UFA) | |
-10 | $2M | 1 |
Jeff Carter: Carter was limited to a fourth-line role, scoring 11 goals and four assists in 72 games while making north of $3 million. Noel Acciari didn’t completely live up to his new deal as he struggled to drive bottom-six play at even strength.
I believe the Penguins had more inefficient contracts than the model lets on, however.
Ryan Graves, for example, was signed to replace Brian Dumoulin as a steady, stay-at-home top-four partner for Kris Letang. He was a bust and is now on the books for another five years at $4.5 million annually. Rickard Rakell’s 15 goals and 37 points were underwhelming for his $5 million cap hit. And while Erik Karlsson had an amazing year analytically, he didn’t grade nearly as well by the eye test, with the Penguins on the hook for $10 million against the cap. Reilly Smith never really meshed with the Penguins as a top-six winger. All four of those players should have been on this inefficient contributors list, too.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-3 | $5.2M | 7 | |
+10 | $8.5M | 0 (UFA) | |
-6 | $2.665M | 1 | |
-7 | $2M | 2 |
Erik Cernak: Tampa Bay’s reacquisition of Ryan McDonagh should do wonders for Cernak. Together, they were indispensable as one of the best shutdown defensive pairs in the NHL during the Lightning’s Cup wins. Cernak hasn’t looked the same since McDonagh left, which coupled with piling injuries, made him underperform his $5.2 million cap hit in 2023-24. He should bounce back if he can stay healthy.
Steven Stamkos had another banner year offensively with 40 goals and 81 points, but he’s slowing down as a play-driver and his defensive numbers were rough. Tampa Bay controlled less than 50 percent of shot attempts and had a minus-13 goal differential during Stamkos’ five-on-five shifts. He’s still one of the club’s best players but $8.5 million was a little bit rich for his contributions this season.
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Further down the lineup, Tanner Jeannot and Conor Sheary were major disappointments. Jeannot scored 14 points in 55 games and Sheary wasn’t much better with 15 points in 57 games.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
-9 | $2.4M | 3 | |
+14 | $11M | 1 | |
+15 | $10.9M | 1 |
David Kampf: A savvy bottom-six defensive specialist, Kampf took a step back in virtually every department this season. He lost his even-strength matchups by a wide margin (Leafs controlled 42.9 percent of scoring chances and had a minus-eight goal differential during his five-on-five shifts), he mustered only 19 points and his ice time was notably cut compared to his first two years in Toronto. Toronto’s penalty kill also ranked bottom third in the NHL, so he shares the blame for that too.
At 33, it’s understandable that John Tavares is slowing down. He can’t drive play the way he used to and 65 points isn’t enough for $11 million.
Mitch Marner didn’t have his most dominant season as he recorded 85 points in 69 games. He provided $9.6 million worth of value compared to his $10.9 million cap hit, according to Dom’s model.
T.J. Brodie probably belonged on this list as well given his sharp decline this season. He was one of the most underrated defensive defensemen for a long time, but 2023-24 was a difficult, mistake-prone year.
Washington Capitals
Player | Net Rating | Cap Hit | Years Left |
|---|---|---|---|
+2 | $9.5M | 2 | |
-4 | $5.75M | 1 | |
-4 | $4.05M | 2 | |
-1 | $5.16M | 0 ($6.5M x 7 extension kicking in) |
Alex Ovechkin: Washington’s core is showing significant signs of aging. Ovechkin’s 31 goals are very impressive for a 38-year-old but he’s slowed down to the point that he’s one of the worst defensive forwards in the NHL.
T.J. Oshie has been a warrior for the Caps but his body is breaking down. He hasn’t hit 60 games played in a single season since 2019-20. This year, he had 12 goals and 25 points in 52 games.
Nick Jensen has long been an underrated two-way second-pair driver but he struggled this season. The Caps were outshot, out-chanced and outscored by fairly wide margins during his minutes.
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Tom Wilson hasn’t quite returned to his peak form since his ACL injury two years ago. He produced 18 goals and 35 points in 74 games, which isn’t bona fide top-six territory. Wilson has a new eight-year extension at an elevated $6.5 million cap hit kicking in next season — that deal is all but certain to age poorly.
(Photos of Alex Ovechkin and Johnny Gaudreau: Geoff Burke and Sergei Belski / USA Today)