We’re less than 80 days away from the start of the season and Florida State’s Week 0 matchup in Ireland against Georgia Tech.
With rosters all but set following the spring transfer portal window, we can assess where the seven FBS programs in the Sunshine State stand following offseason makeovers.
Are the Seminoles still the best team in Florida?
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Yes.
Here are our preseason Sunshine State rankings:
1. Florida State
2023 record: 13-1
2024 over/under wins from FanDuel: 9.5
Team strengths: Coaching, running game, secondary
Biggest questions: Passing game, linebacker depth
Key games: Clemson, at Miami, at Notre Dame, Florida
The Seminoles had 10 players drafted in April (tied for third-most with Alabama and Washington), and coach Mike Norvell replenished the roster by bringing in 17 transfers via the portal. FSU will need a few of those new arrivals, as well as several of the recruits Norvell has signed over the last couple of cycles, to rise to the occasion to keep the Seminoles ahead of the pack. It will be difficult to keep pace, though, with what Jordan Travis, Keon Coleman, Johnny Wilson and Trey Benson pulled off when FSU led the ACC in scoring the last two seasons. The good news is the offensive line brings back 210 collective career starts, and there’s talent in the backfield. Defensively, coordinator Adam Fuller enters his fifth season in Tallahassee with veterans on the line and in the secondary. Nine wins, and a repeat shot at the ACC title, feels like a safe bet.
2. Miami
2023 record: 7-6
2024 over/under wins from FanDuel: 9.5
Team strengths: Passing game, defensive line
Biggest questions: Secondary, game day coaching decisions
Key games: at Florida, at Louisville, Florida State
Mario Cristobal has signed back-to-back top-10 recruiting classes and pulled in one of the nation’s best transfer portal classes heading into Year 3 in Coral Gables. Rueben Bain, the ACC’s reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year, and Francisco Mauigoa lead a front seven deep with experience. Pac-12 transfers Cameron Ward and Damien Martinez, meanwhile, should improve an offense that sputtered down the stretch last season due to injuries at running back and inconsistencies at quarterback. We’ll learn a lot about Miami right away when it plays the rival Gators in Gainesville on Aug. 31. It’s a game the Hurricanes are expected to win and need to win to put last year’s late-season struggles behind them.
3. UCF
2023 record: 6-7
2024 over/under wins from FanDuel: 7.5
Team strengths: Running game, offensive skill players, defensive transfers
Biggest question: Line play
Key games: Colorado, at Florida, Utah
Gus Malzahn hired two new coordinators and brought in 27 players via the portal with a combined 327 games of starting experience after the Knights’ first season in the Big 12 resulted in the program’s first losing season since 2016. Meanwhile, only three quality starters exited via the portal — defensive lineman Josh Celiscar (Texas A&M) and defensive backs Corey Thornton (Louisville) and Nikai Martinez (Michigan State). The big question is if UCF has the linemen on both sides of the ball to compete week in and week out against Power 4 competition. Malzahn believes he’s addressed many needs and UCF can win the Big 12, but it remains to be seen if the lines have been bolstered enough. Circle Oct. 5 on the calendar. That’s when UCF plays at Florida in what should be a huge game for both programs.
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4. Florida
2023 record: 5-7
2024 over/under wins from FanDuel: 4.5
Team strengths: Passing game, experience in secondary
Biggest questions: Run defense, pass rush
Key games: Miami, at Tennessee, vs. Georgia, at Texas, at Florida State
Billy Napier faces an incredibly tough schedule, and his program is reeling after five consecutive losses to end the 2023 campaign. The Gators lost eight quality players via the portal: running back Trevor Etienne (Georgia), left guard Richie Leonard IV (Florida State), right guard Micah Mazzccua (Nebraska), edge rusher Princely Umanmielen (Ole Miss), outside linebacker Scooby Williams (Texas A&M), cornerback Jalen Kimber (Penn State) and safeties Jaydon Hill (Texas A&M) and Miguel Mitchell (Arkansas). Florida, though, did add the Ivy League Defensive Player of the Year in defensive lineman Joey Slackman, a quality veteran safety in Asa Turner from Washington and beefed up at receiver with Arizona State’s Elijhah Badger. Getting back to a bowl game is going to come down to whether or not the offensive and defensive lines have improved. Right now, it’s fair to be skeptical.
5. USF
2023 record: 7-6
2024 over/under wins from FanDuel: 7.5
Team strengths: Offensive skill talent, secondary
Biggest questions: Pass protection, pass rush
Key games: at Alabama, Miami, Memphis
Alex Golesh took a program that had won four games against FBS opponents from the middle of the 2018 season through 2022 and won the program’s first bowl game since 2017, averaging nearly 32 points per game along the way. Most of that offensive firepower is back, with the only notable losses to the portal coming on defense: edge rushers Lloyd Summerall (James Madison) and Tramel Logan (Louisville). That makes the Bulls, who have not defeated an FBS team that finished with a winning record since 2019, a trendy pick in a new-look American Athletic Conference that no longer includes SMU (the Mustangs left for the ACC) or Willie Fritz (Tulane’s head coach bolted for Houston). Tread cautiously, though, before you lay big bucks on the Bulls. USF struggled to protect quarterback Byrum Brown last season and a tough early schedule awaits with a trip to Alabama (Sept. 7) and a home game against Miami (Sept. 21). The Bulls could be physically beat up by the time they host Memphis (Oct. 11).
6. FAU
2023 record: 4-8
2024 over/under wins from FanDuel: 6.5
Team strengths: Linebacker, secondary
Biggest question: Offensive line
Key games: at Michigan State, FIU, USF
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Tom Herman is trying to settle into his job in Year 2 in Boca Raton by getting the Owls’ NIL program off the ground. They’ve got work to do. FAU lost 35 players to the portal, including three veteran pass rushers after the spring game. The nation’s second-leading receiver, LaJohntay Wester (108 catches, 1,168 yards), left for Colorado; the team’s second-leading receiver, Tony Johnson, is at Cincinnati; and two longtime starting guards in Kamaar Bell (South Carolina) and Dorian Hinton (Texas A&M) left for SEC programs. The only remaining veteran starter on the offensive line is center Federico Maranges. That’ll make it tough on whoever wins the starting quarterback job between redshirt juniors Cam Fancher and Tyriq Starks. Defensively, at least, there’s experience in the back half. But as Herman pointed out recently, somebody has to put pressure on the quarterback. FAU hosts FIU on Sept. 14. It wouldn’t be surprising if the Owls win that game (FAU is 16-4 in the series) but finish with a worse record than the Panthers playing in the tougher AAC.
7. FIU
2023 record: 4-8
2024 over/under wins from FanDuel: 4.5
Team strengths: Running back depth, defensive back experience
Biggest questions: Center
Key games: at Indiana, at FAU, at Liberty
FIU is coming off back-to-back 4-8 seasons, but there’s optimism the Panthers can reach their first bowl game since 2019 with starting quarterback Keyone Jenkins returning and an improved pass rush. This offseason marked the second year in a row the Panthers lost a former 1,000-yard receiver to an elite program, with Kris Mitchell leaving for Notre Dame. Two other 2023 full-time starters were among the 17 departures via the portal, with right tackle Phillip Houston leaving for Colorado and defensive lineman Jordan Guerad off to Louisville. The good news, coach Mike MacIntyre said, is that FIU didn’t lose any more starters to the portal this spring. He said this is the most experienced team he’s had in his three seasons at FIU. The program last had a winning season under Butch Davis in 2018. Finishing .500 is not out of the realm of possibility in a very mediocre Conference USA.
(Top photos of Mike Norvell, Mario Cristobal: Ken Ruinard, Andy Lewis / USA Today)