Read the latest MLB Power Rankings from The Athletic MLB staff.
By Grant Brisbee, Stephen J. Nesbitt and Andy McCullough
Every week, we ask a selected group of our baseball writers — local and national — to rank the teams from first to worst. Here are the collective results.
On Wednesday afternoon, Major League Baseball will open balloting to the public for the 94th annual All-Star Game, which will be held on July 16 at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas.
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For long-standing seamheads, the widespread implementation of interleague play has diluted the novelty of the Midsummer Classic. So has the rule mandating that each team receives a representative, no matter how dreary the season has been. But that designation can still be quite meaningful, especially for those who have never made an All-Star team before.
With that in mind, this week’s topic looks at potential first-time All-Star candidates around the league. Some are slam dunks, almost guaranteed to be there when the best of the best gather in the Lone Star State next month. And the nomination of others should offer insight into why certain teams are already careening downward.
1. New York Yankees
Record: 42-19
Last Power Ranking: 2
First-time All-Star candidate: RHP Luis Gil
Do the Yankees miss Gerrit Cole? Of course. He’s Gerrit Cole. But if you merely looked at the standings, you wouldn’t notice his absence. Part of the reason is Gil, a 26-year-old with an electric arm and results to match. His changeup can make hitters look befuddled. His strikeout rates have been admirable. With Gil dealing, the Yankees starting rotation has remained a strength, even with Cole, widely considered the best pitcher in the sport, nursing an elbow injury. The group will be even stronger when he returns. And if Gil stays healthy, he’ll be in the mix for major assignments in October. — Andy McCullough
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2. Philadelphia Phillies
Record: 42-19
Last Power Ranking: 1
First-time All-Star candidate: LHP Ranger Suárez
There are several first-time candidates on the high-flying Phillies, who have opened up a sizable lead on the Braves in the National League East and look capable of securing a first-round bye when October comes around. Brandon Marsh continues to build off last season’s breakout. Alec Bohm is finally showing why the team selected him with the third overall pick in 2018. But the honors must go to Suárez, who has emerged as an early Cy Young Award candidate and outperformed veteran horses on his own staff like Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. His 1.70 ERA may not be sustainable, but his 2.66 fielding-independent ERA suggests any regression won’t wreck his stat line. At 9-1 in early June, on a team as good as the Phillies, Suárez has a shot at a rare achievement in this era: Twenty wins. — McCullough
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3. Los Angeles Dodgers
Record: 38-23
Last Power Ranking: 3
First-time All-Star candidate: RHP Tyler Glasnow
Surprised? You probably shouldn’t be, considering that Glasnow is just 46 innings away from a new career high. He’s made 12 starts already this season, and if he makes two more, that will be the second-most starts in any season of his nine-year career. So, yeah, it’s been tricky for him to make an All-Star team.
He’s always had the potential, though. It was just a matter of staying healthy. Glasnow is leading the National League in innings pitched and strikeouts as of this writing. Today, the All-Star Game; tomorrow, the Cy Young Award? (And the next day, Best Actor?) — Grant Brisbee
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4. Baltimore Orioles
Record: 38-20
Last Power Ranking: 4
First-time All-Star candidate: SS Gunnar Henderson
It’s true: Despite a unanimous victory as American League Rookie of the Year last season, Henderson did not make the All-Star Game. That figures to change in 2024. Still just 22, Henderson continues to level up as a player. He has demonstrated more patience at the plate this season while hitting for more power. It’s a terrifying package. The collective talent of Baltimore’s young core helps reduce the attention on Henderson, but it won’t stay that way for long. He’s an MVP contender in 2024 and likely many, many years to come. — McCullough
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5. Cleveland Guardians
Record: 39-20
Last Power Ranking: T-5
First-time All-Star candidate: The Left Fielder
Pop on over to FanGraphs and sort all AL outfielders by WAR, minimum 100 plate appearances:
Aaron Judge, Yankees: 4
Juan Soto, Yankees: 3.9
Kyle Tucker, Astros: 3.2
David Fry, Guardians: 2.1
Steven Kwan, Guardians: 2
Heavens me. Fry got an extended run in left field and went bananas when Kwan, a two-time Gold Glover, missed time in May. The Guardians’ OPS from the left-field position this season is .868, the best in baseball. Kwan just passed the 150-plate appearance mark, and Fry is still short, so they’re more than 100 behind the league leaders. But with that level of production, they’ve more than made up the gap. Now that they’re both back in the lineup, there can be only one left fielder. But why not two first-time All-Stars? — Stephen J. Nesbitt
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6. Atlanta Braves
Record: 33-24
Last Power Ranking: T-5
First-time All-Star candidate: RHP Reynaldo López
López, 30, had been shifted into a relief role in recent years and put together solid numbers for the White Sox and Angels. But he never lost faith in his ability to start, a belief that the Braves have indulged since signing López to a three-year, $30 million contract last winter. The gamble looks like a good one so far. López entered Sunday’s games leading the National League with a 1.73 ERA. Atlanta has been cautious about his usage, affording him extra rest as he re-adjusts to starting. For a team that misses Spencer Strider, López has filled some of the void. — McCullough
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7. Milwaukee Brewers
Record: 36-24
Last Power Ranking: 8
First-time All-Star candidate: 2B Brice Turang
We could make a case for three Brewers infielders to be first-time All-Stars — Turang, Willy Adames and Joey Ortiz — as they’re all among the current leaders at their positions. Turang, son of Brian, had a miserable rookie season in Milwaukee, showing speed but little ability to get on base. He’s broken through this season, batting .299 with 20 steals in 21 attempts and ascending to the leadoff position most days in manager Pat Murphy’s lineup.
Turang will only occasionally pull a homer, but he gives the Brewers a less-sexy, still-useful profile: a lefty who walks, doesn’t strike out, sprays hits to the opposite field, steals at will and plays plus defense. He’s why the Brewers have the No. 1 OPS at second base this season. — Nesbitt
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8. Seattle Mariners
Record: 34-27
Last Power Ranking: 10
First-time All-Star candidate: RHP Logan Gilbert
Assuming the AL roster won’t include the entire Mariners rotation, it will be tricky to play favorites between Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. (Luis Castillo and George Kirby have already been All-Stars.) If you make one of them Stathead comparison thingamabobs, they come out even.
You can make easy arguments for and against each. Woo’s small-sample stats are supreme, but Miller and Gilbert have thrown almost three times his innings. I’ll give Gilbert the tiebreaker because of the slightly larger workload, plus the fact he’s facing the A’s this week while Miller has the Royals. — Nesbitt
9. Minnesota Twins
Record: 33-26
Last Power Ranking: 9
First-time All-Star candidate: C Ryan Jeffers
We’re playing the odds a bit here by picking Jeffers over Joe Ryan, believing a catcher is more likely to get in than a starter. Typically, there are three catchers on an All-Star roster. Jeffers is tied for second in fWAR among AL catchers with Adley Rutschman, behind Salvador Perez. In a year the A’s needed an All-Star, Shea Langeliers might make it ahead of Jeffers or Rutschman, but because Mason Miller exists, that shouldn’t be an issue.
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Game theory aside, Jeffers is being his old hard-hittin’ self. He has smoked 12 homers in 208 plate appearances, doing enough damage that the Twins have plugged him in at DH and in the middle of the lineup when Christian Vázquez catches. Jeffers hasn’t cleared 350 plate appearances before in an MLB season, but the way he’s hitting he could be headed for 550 this year. — Nesbitt
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10. Kansas City Royals
Record: 36-25
Last Power Ranking: 7
First-time All-Star candidate: SS Bobby Witt Jr.
With due respect to most members of the Royals rotation, the obvious first-time All-Star choice is Witt. He was all right in the first half last season (.742 OPS) but turned on the burners in the second half (.906 OPS) to finish with 30 homers, 49 steals and a seventh-place ribbon in MVP voting.
This year Witt hit the ground sprinting and is sure to avoid an All-Star snub. He’s batting .313/.367/.539 with nine homers and 17 steals, leading the AL in hits and the majors in runs. Statcast ranks him 100th percentile in both defensive range and sprint speed. But will he even start the All-Star Game at shortstop? Witt and Gunnar Henderson are in a dead heat with 3.7 fWAR apiece. — Nesbitt
11. San Diego Padres
Record: 32-31
Last Power Ranking: 11
First-time All-Star candidate: LF Jurickson Profar
In 2013, Baseball America wrote this about Profar:
Few prospects represent a safer bet to develop into a first-division regular and all-star than Profar.
Nailed it. Although it took, uh, more than a decade to get there. Profar’s age-31 metamorphosis into vintage Pete Rose has been one of the most remarkable developments of the season, and unless he has a miserable June, he should absolutely represent the Padres at the 2024 All-Star Game.
Profar has simultaneously been in the league for 27 seasons while also somehow being the same age as Francisco Lindor and Ketel Marte, players my brain still describes as “young.” If he does make the team, it’ll be a pretty sweet achievement. — Brisbee
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12. Boston Red Sox
Record: 30-30
Last Power Ranking: T-14
First-time All-Star candidate: RHP Tanner Houck
Houck has given up one home run this year. One. One! Only Royals pitcher Seth Lugo has logged more innings in 2024 than Houck. And still, just that one dinger. (To be fair, he hasn’t tried to pitch to Aaron Judge yet.) That incredible flyball luck just isn’t sustainable, even for a pitcher who tends to keep the ball on the ground as Houck does. But it sure is commendable and a reason to reward Houck with an invitation to Arlington in July. — McCullough
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13. Texas Rangers
Record: 29-31
Last Power Ranking: 21
First-time All-Star candidate: 3B Josh Smith
Woof. Nothing against Smith, who has been one of the Rangers’ best players filling in for the injured Josh Jung. He’s played well enough to deserve serious consideration. But when the season started, the expected answers to a prompt like this would have been much different. Evan Carter was supposed to begin his reign of MVP-caliber seasons with Wyatt Langford right behind him. Instead, both of them will have to wait until next season to be considered. If this season is more than youth-related growing pains, they’ll have to wait much longer than that.
Smith has been the most pleasant surprise for a team that’s mostly suffered nothing but rude surprises all season. His paltry power numbers don’t scream “All-Star” but the OBP and defense do. If the disappointing Rangers get to send just one player to represent them, they can do worse than Smith. — Brisbee
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14. Houston Astros
Record: 27-34
Last Power Ranking: T-12
First-time All-Star candidate: SS Jeremy Peña
If you believe the nerd numbers, Peña’s defense is slumping a bit. The nerd numbers also love Peña’s overall value, though, and they always have. He’s still one of the more underrated players in the league, especially when he’s hitting .300 or close to it.
It’s a tough time to be an American League All-Star at shortstop, though, with Gunnar Henderson, Bobby Witt Jr. and Anthony Volpe all having tremendous starts to 2024. The Rangers don’t have a ton of obvious All-Stars at the moment (see blurb above), and they might need Corey Seager to be their representative. The odds are very much against Peña. He’ll get there one of these seasons, but it’ll take a lot of June mashing for 2024 to be the year. — Brisbee
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15. Tampa Bay Rays
Record: 29-31
Last Power Ranking: 16
First-time All-Star candidate: 3B Isaac Paredes
It’s been a frustrating season thus far for the Rays, who are stumbling under .500 for the first time in a long time. The offensive profile of Tampa Bay is far from ideal — the team strikes out a lot but doesn’t hit for much power. Bad combo. Paredes has been one of the few Rays doing the opposite. He has cut down his strikeout rate a bit without sacrificing slugging potential. His teammates will need to pick it up if the club wants to make another run at October. Otherwise, Tampa Bay could become sellers at the trade deadline. — McCullough
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16. Toronto Blue Jays
Record: 28-31
Last Power Ranking: 19
First-time All-Star candidate: 2B/LF Davis Schneider
From a pure WAR perspective, outfielder Daulton Varsho has probably been the best player on the Blue Jays in 2024, but it’s hard to sell the value of an outfielder with a sub-.300 on-base percentage who doesn’t play center field every day. (We’re telling, you, though: Varsho is a good player.) Anyway, let’s give it up for Schneider, a bright spot in an otherwise dreary season for Toronto. Schneider has a lot of sentimental value in addition to his actual value as a hitter. He’s a 28th-round pick. He wears glasses. He’s got a nice mustache. The All-Star Game demands variety. Let’s make it happen. — McCullough
17. St. Louis Cardinals
Record: 28-30
Last Power Ranking: 18
First-time All-Star candidate: SS Masyn Winn
Lars Nootbaar might have been the pick here, but then I saw how hard Laz Diaz dissed him, and then an oblique strain suspended Nootbaar’s ensuing hot streak.
So let’s go with a guy Laz would appreciate. Winn is batting .299. It’s one thing to try holding your own defensively as a rookie starting shortstop (Winn’s glove has received some very mixed reviews), but another thing entirely to excel with the stick. By OPS, Winn has been 22 percent above league average. The power hasn’t been there — or fair — but Winn’s contact approach plays. He does face stiff competition among NL shortstops for an All-Star spot, though. As of Monday, he was third at the position in bWAR and seventh in fWAR. — Nesbitt
18. Detroit Tigers
Record: 30-30
Last Power Ranking: 20
First-time All-Star candidate: LHP Tarik Skubal
It’s now been 11 months since Skubal returned to the Tigers rotation following Tommy John rehab, and in that time he’s 14-4 with a 2.40 ERA in 153 1/3 innings. If we gave out awards for stats collected across 365-day stretches, Skubal might be closing in on a July-to-July Cy Young. He’ll have to settle for an All-Star selection, for now, and maybe more hardware this fall. Skubal this season has a 1.97 ERA and AL-leading .88 WHIP. He’s a nightmare at-bat for hitters, slinging heat, spin and sliders from the left side. Prior to Monday’s game, he was second among starters in fWAR (2.4). — Nesbitt
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19. Chicago Cubs
Record: 29-31
Last Power Ranking: T-12
First-time All-Star candidate: LHP Shota Imanaga
One wrong move from Ranger Suárez. One crooked number or grand slam or blow-up start. One bad day at the office … and it’ll be Imanaga starting the All-Star Game for the National League.
Imanaga is coming off one of those bad days, a seven-run start against the Brewers that ballooned his ERA from 0.84 to 1.86. Even if he doesn’t make up the ground between him and Suárez in the next month, he’s looking like a shoo-in All-Star selection. The Cubs, who’ve won eight of Imanaga’s 10 starts, have been careful with his workload, but when he’s pitched, he’s dominated — with one exception. — Nesbitt
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20. San Francisco Giants
Record: 29-32
Last Power Ranking: T-14
First-time All-Star candidate: C Patrick Bailey
It’s far, far too early to drop a Joe Montana/Steve Young comparison on the Giants’ seamless transition from Buster Posey to Bailey. You can go nuts comparing Montana and Posey and what they both mean to San Francisco sports fans who were looking for their first championship experience, only to get progressively more spoiled, but we’re barely into Bailey’s first calendar year as a major leaguer. Far, far, far too early.
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It’s not too early for some power-ranking goober to hint at the possibility of the hope of the whiff of those comparisons, though. Bailey makes at least one hilariously perfect throw to catch a would-be thief every series. He’s been nominated for a Gold Glove already, and this is probably the year he wins one. He’s a potential All-Star, though, because he’s hitting the snot out of the ball, ranking with the large lads in terms of average exit velocity.
The combination makes him one of the most valuable players on the Giants, and it puts him on a short list of the most well-rounded catchers in baseball. Will he ever win as many Super Bowls as Montana/Young? Only time …. will tell. — Brisbee
21. Arizona Diamondbacks
Record: 28-32
Last Power Ranking: 17
First-time All-Star candidate: 1B Christian Walker
The perennial Gold Glover and 30-homer whomper has never made an All-Star team, which is at least moderately surprising. If Walker offered average defense and an extra 30 or 40 points of batting average — with the same WAR — this would be his second or third selection. As is, he’s a player that’s harder to appreciate based on a stat line alone.
Walker gets the nod over Gabriel Moreno, who should make at least a couple of All-Star Games in his career but isn’t hitting quite enough at the moment to make him the easy choice. — Brisbee
22. Pittsburgh Pirates
Record: 27-32
Last Power Ranking: 22
First-time All-Star candidate: RHP Jared Jones
A year ago, people were petitioning for Elly De La Cruz to be put into the All-Star Game after a month in the majors. Perhaps the same will be said this time about Paul Skenes, the former No. 1 draft pick who has dazzled in his first four MLB starts. But, apart from that possibility, there’s still a real chance Jones becomes the Buccos’ first rookie All-Star since Tony Womack in 1997. Jones will need to recapture some of his early-season form in June, as his stuff (and strikeout numbers) have fallen off in the past month. Homers have haunted him all season, accounting for 15 of the 28 runs he’s permitted. — Nesbitt
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23. Cincinnati Reds
Record: 27-33
Last Power Ranking: 23
First-time All-Star candidate: SS Elly De La Cruz
When Ronald Acuña Jr. opened the 40-70 club last year, none of us conjured that De La Cruz might unveil the 30-90 club so soon. But, with the Reds through 60 games this season, De La Cruz is trending close to that pace. Despite slumping since the middle of May, De La Cruz entered the week batting .233/.329/.414 with nine homers and 32 stolen bases. He ranks third among NL shortstops in fWAR (2.1), behind Mookie Betts (3.3) and Willy Adames (2.4).
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Cincinnati’s other clear first-time All-Star candidate is starter Hunter Greene, who has a 3.44 ERA. The Reds have not taken advantage of Greene’s strong start, as they’ve gone 3-9 in his starts. — Nesbitt
24. Washington Nationals
Record: 27-32
Last Power Ranking: 25
First-time All-Star candidate: RHP Trevor Williams
It’s going to be challenging for CJ Abrams to leapfrog past fellow shortstops like Mookie Betts, Willy Adames and Elly De La Cruz. That should not diminish the progress Abrams continues to make. Williams, a journeyman who was pitching as a long reliever for the Mets as recently as two years ago, has put together the best two-month stretch of his career. He should be rewarded for that. It will be interesting to see if contending clubs inquire about Williams, who lacks elite fastball velocity and the ability to generate strikeouts but has excelled at avoiding damage thus far in 2024. — McCullough
25. New York Mets
Record: 25-35
Last Power Ranking: 24
First-time All-Star candidate: LHP Sean Manaea
There are slim pickings for this category in Flushing. The rookies haven’t done enough. Francisco Alvarez has been sidelined since April with a thumb injury. Jose Buttó pitched well in a seven-start cameo before getting sent back to the minors in the middle of May. Same story for Christian Scott. Despite his hype as a prospect, Brett Baty has been unable to put it together. So let’s go with Manaea, who had a better case before giving up six runs in 5 2/3 innings to Arizona this past weekend. So it goes. — McCullough
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26. Oakland Athletics
Record: 24-37
Last Power Ranking: T-26
First-time All-Star candidate: RHP Mason Miller
Some of these first-time All-Star candidates are a bit of a stretch, chosen only because that’s the theme of these power rankings. Some of them are difficult choices because there are so many worthy candidates on the same team. This is not one of those cases.
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It takes a lot for a player on the Oakland Athletics to be one of the talks of baseball in 2024, but Miller’s done just that. The baseball-loving world deserves to see him pitch against Shohei Ohtani with a one-run lead in the ninth, but knowing how All-Star subs typically work, we’ll be satisfied with him facing Ohtani in the fifth or CJ Abrams in the ninth.
The hardest part of this blurb was figuring out how to get in my standard jab against A’s ownership. If you’re focusing on an electric arm like Miller’s, it’s harder to make fun of the collection of Windsor-knotted goofs making the sport worse each day. So, I guess we’ll just have to focus on Miller.
Whatta fastball! — Brisbee
27. Los Angeles Angels
Record: 22-38
Last Power Ranking: 27
First-time All-Star candidate: 2B/3B Luis Rengifo
Jo Adell has finally arrived, everyone. He didn’t take the most linear path, but the toolsy forever-prospect busted out in a big way this April, and he’s the obvious choice for this exercise.
Unless something happened to him in May. Let me just check on that and see if … oh, dear. (Though we would be remiss if we did not mention his game-tying pinch-hit grand slam from last week.)
Luis Rengifo, then! He won’t be hitting .330-something when the All-Star Game gets here, but he’s been one of the few offensive sparks on the team. Every team needs a switch-hitting, multi-position dynamo — even All-Star teams. — Brisbee
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28. Colorado Rockies
Record: 21-38
Last Power Ranking: 29
First-time All-Star candidate: 3B Ryan McMahon
Elias Díaz was last year’s All-Star Game MVP, so don’t sleep on those Rockies first-timers. This season, they have two defensive wizards having the best seasons of their career, McMahon and Brenton Doyle. The former is having a familiar season, just with an extra 40 points of batting average and OBP. The latter has boosted his walk rate and cut back on his strikeouts, although he’s slowed down in recent weeks.
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Give the nod to McMahon, then, as he’s been doing it for much longer. The glove really is special, and he’s been one of the best parts about being a Rockies fan for years now. Being something that Rockies fans can look forward to every season should get him a Presidential Medal of Freedom, much less an All-Star selection. It’s time. — Brisbee
29. Miami Marlins
Record: 21-39
Last Power Ranking: 28
First-time All-Star candidate: LHP Tanner Scott
You could make a case for Ryan Weathers, the former first-round pick who appears to be finally putting it together. (We say “finally” while acknowledging that this young man is only 24; such are the perils of choosing high school pitchers early in the draft.) A reliever like Scott may have a better shot to crack the roster, though. Pitching on a team like Miami, Scott hasn’t gotten many save opportunities. His decreased strikeout rate and increased walk rate may diminish his trade value next month. But, hey, that doesn’t mean he can’t hang with the fellows at the Midsummer Classic. — McCullough
30. Chicago White Sox
Record: 15-45
Last Power Ranking: 30
First-time All-Star candidate: LHP Garrett Crochet
It would be fabulous to see Erick Fedde an All-Star after wiping out in Washington, reinventing himself in the KBO and returning with the White Sox. But it would be equally cool to Crochet there in his first season as an MLB starter, and his first full season since Tommy John surgery. Crochet has a 3.49 ERA through 13 starts, and he leads MLB starters with 12 strikeouts per nine innings. While we won’t hand-wave the three-start stretch in April when Crochet allowed 17 runs in 11 2/3 innings, it’s worth noting that in each of his other 10 starts, Crochet has gone at least five innings and allowed two runs or fewer. — Nesbitt
(Top photo: Stacy Revere / Getty Images)