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Good morning, baseball fans. Angel Hernandez is retiring, and Ronald Acuña Jr. is out for the year. Talk about mixed feelings. I’m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal — welcome to The Windup!
Angel Hernandez calls it a career
Angel Hernandez is retiring. Good for him.
On one hand, I’m not enough of a contrarian to disagree with, well, everyone when it comes to Hernandez’s umpiring career. In my time covering the sport, I don’t recall hearing a single player, manager, coach or broadcaster suggest that Hernandez’s reputation was unfair. Many have said the opposite, actually.
On the other, it’s worth acknowledging that this in-depth story on Hernandez from Sam Blum and Cody Stavenhagen reminded me yet again that people are people, even if they’re bad at their high-profile jobs.
Hernandez isn’t on social media. By all accounts, he doesn’t pay much attention to the perpetual flow of frustration directed his way. But, according to his lawyer, there are people close to Hernandez who feel the impact.
“What hurts him the most,” Murphy said, “is the pain that his two daughters and his wife go through when they know it’s so unbelievably undeserved.”
I would quibble with the last two words. Hernandez often came off as an overly sensitive authoritarian, defending mistakes with a hair-trigger ejection. I don’t think that’s good for the game.
But I also understand how being publicly excoriated as incompetent — or worse, a villain — would bother a family man. It’s possible to have empathy on that front while acknowledging professional shortcomings.
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And those were multitude (this series of three consecutive called strikes is a case in point). Blum and Stavenhagen point out that Hernandez was not the worst umpire in the game, but he was “ranked as the 60th to 70th best umpire, out of 85-to-90, in any given season.”
Between the quick ejections, the missed calls and tension with the league over a twice-dismissed lawsuit, I’ve long thought that the right call would be for him to retire of his own volition. Imagine my surprise when he did it. (OK now seriously: Go read Sam and Cody’s article.)
Ken’s Notebook: Dodgers spent $1B, but roster holes persist
From my latest column:
You can buy a lot in this world for $1.4 billion. But as the Dodgers are discovering, you cannot buy a complete 26-man roster.
Yep, the Dodgers likely will need at least one hitter and one reliever at the trade deadline, and that’s assuming no further injuries. Their lead in the NL West is five games. Their 12th straight postseason appearance is practically a given. But even after their $1.4 billion offseason, adjustments still will be necessary in their quest for a World Series title.
As owner Mark Walter recruited Shohei Ohtani, he mentioned that he views his 12-year tenure running the club as an on-field failure, despite the team’s championship in the shortened 2020 season. Everything with the Dodgers this season — every pitch, in-game decision and roster move — is intended to maximize their chances in October. So although the team’s current five-game losing streak and 7-9 slump hardly are cause for concern, they’re nonetheless a meaningful snapshot, one president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman almost certainly will not ignore.
The Dodgers’ bullpen issues should ease as their four injured right-handers — Evan Phillips, Ryan Brasier, Brusdar Graterol and Joe Kelly — return to health. Even then, they probably could use one more shutdown type to pair with Phillips in the late innings, someone perhaps, like their old friend, Red Sox closer Kenley Jansen.
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The offensive addition, or additions, will be more complex — and perhaps determine whether the Dodgers keep Mookie Betts at shortstop for the rest of the season. The best guess at the moment is yes, in large part because a top-caliber shortstop might not be available. But the continued offensive struggles of Gavin Lux at second base might force the issue.
Betts had a memorable line in spring training, saying he didn’t even bring an outfield glove or cleats to Arizona. If the Dodgers make a move, he would appear far more likely to slide over to second than return to the outfield, even though the team’s outfield production without him is sorely lacking.
The outfield is part of the Dodgers’ larger problem — their offensive futility in the sixth through ninth spots (or seventh through ninth when third baseman Max Muncy, one of 12 Dodgers players on the injured list, returns from his strained right oblique).
The black hole at the bottom of the lineup does not erase the impact of the three future Hall of Famers at the top (Betts, Ohtani and Freddie Freeman), the underrated star in the cleanup spot (Will Smith) or the team RBI leader batting fifth (Teoscar Hernández). But after ranking third in the majors in runs per game in March/April, the Dodgers began the week only 11th in May. And not because of their top hitters.
When will Ronald Acuña Jr. be at full strength again?
If baseball is a metaphor for life, one of its most enduring lessons is that the universe does not give one whit for our collective desires; it will mete out blessings and hardships as it sees fit.
Last year, Ronald Acuña Jr. became the first player to hit 40+ home runs and steal 70+ bases in the same season, winning NL MVP for his efforts. It was a truly remarkable and historic season, one that fans of the Braves and the game will never forget.
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It was also a triumphant return to form after he tore his right ACL in July 2021. He returned to action in late April of 2022, but it took time to regain his mojo, posting a career-low 2.6 bWAR upon his return. (Not counting the shortened 2020 season.)
If that timeline is the roadmap, then we may not see Acuña in peak form again until 2026. He tore his left ACL on Sunday, and will miss the remainder of this season.
Acuña’s absence is a huge blow for the Braves, who are currently six games behind the red-hot Phillies in the NL East. Of course, it was a big blow when they lost him in 2021 too — and they went and won the World Series.
Acuña is still just 26 years old. He’s been through this before, and there’s little doubt that he’ll be back to electrifying the baseball diamond soon enough.
But man, what a huge bummer.
More Braves: Chris Sale is looking like the steal of the winter.
What is expected weighted on-base average?
When it comes to advanced stats, I usually require a little context and explanation. If you’re going to make me say “xwOBA” out loud in front of my friends, I need to know why it’s important.
So this week, I’m examining some lesser-known stats, why they’re important, and who’s excelling at them. Let’s start with expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA. It helps to break it into parts.
OBA: on-base average — You probably know it as “OBP” — on-base percentage (but try saying “xwOBP” out loud. You probably sound like a boat motor that ran out of gasoline).
w: weighted — So, what is weighted OBA? FanGraphs has a full explanation, but it’s an attempt to “weigh” different ways of reaching base. A double isn’t worth twice as much run value as a single, but in SLG (slugging percentage) it’s weighted that way. This is a bit more precise.
x: expected — To calculate this, launch angle, exit velocity and sprint speed are taken into account, and compared to a database to determine the usual result when a given ball is hit with those numbers. Here’s more detail.
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Each part gives you a little more information: OBA tells you if the player got on base, wOBA tells you if it was a triple, and xwOBA accounts for the right fielder falling down on what should’ve been a single.
2024 xwOBA leaders:
- Aaron Judge (NYY) — .470
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — .463
- Juan Soto (NYY) — .460
For context, here are your xwOBA leaders for the last three years:
- 2023: Aaron Judge — .461
- 2022: Aaron Judge — .463
- 2021: Bryce Harper — .430
We’ll have another one for you tomorrow (and every day this week).
Handshakes and High Fives
Keeping you posted on Birmingham-Southern College, who were playing for a title on the weekend before their school closes forever. They defeated Denison University to advance to the DIII World Series, despite nine players suffering from food poisoning (and two hospitalized). They’ll play Salve Regina on Friday.
We have a new No. 1 in this week’s Power Rankings.
The East-West Classic, a recreation of the East-West All-Star Game, a staple of the Negro Leagues for decades, happened over the weekend in Cooperstown. Tyler Kepner was there and spoke to players about the lack of Black Americans playing baseball these days.
Zack Meisel profiles one of my favorite broadcasters: Tom Hamilton, the radio voice of the Guardians.
The Astros’ pitching depth continues to dwindle. Cristian Javier is back on the IL, and José Urquidy left a rehab start with forearm discomfort.
On that topic: Tim Britton digs into the ramifications of Mets starter Kodai Senga’s recent setback.
Did you see the viral video of the high school center fielder tagging a guy out at home? Mark Puleo spoke to the kid who got tagged.
You can buy tickets to every MLB game here.
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(Photo of Kyle Schwarber and Angel Hernandez: Rich Schultz / Getty Images)