LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Justin Thomas predicted it so perfectly.
There’s something about this place, whether you like the course or not, that creates drama. Valhalla Golf Club does not have boring finishes. Tournaments end with playoffs, like the PGA Championships in 1996 and 2000. They end with Rory McIlroy playing through darkness and on Phil Mickelson’s and Rickie Fowler’s heels like he did to win in 2014.
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So the local kid playing his first major in his hometown explained Tuesday what it is about Valhalla. The answer is that it’s straightforward. “There’s not a lot of different ways to play the golf course.” You know you’re pulling out driver. You know where to put it.
“I think when you give all of us very similar places to play from,” Thomas said, “you have the opportunity for more bunched leaderboards.”
In roughly 20 minutes Saturday evening, the 2024 PGA Championship went from a three-man race to an eight-man free-for-all with double bogeys, eagles and everything in between. Xander Schauffele lost a solo lead on 15 and fought his way back. Bryson DeChambeau chipped in on 18 to jump from the pack to right on the leaders’ heels. Shane Lowry shot a major record-tying 62 to throw himself in the mix.
Six of the biggest names in golf are within two shots of the lead on Sunday at the year’s second major championship. Two more Ryder Cuppers are within three. Fifteen are within four. And while, yes, 40 of the last 41 PGA champions started Sunday within four, it’s also a wild week in which two of the five 62s ever shot in a major have been produced, who knows if we can even rule out world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who sits eight back?
Someone is going to have a career-altering moment Sunday. Who will it be?
The front-runners
Collin Morikawa (T1, 15-under-par)
Morikawa was the phenom, the next great ball-striking prodigy who won two majors by 24. Then, he slowed down. He didn’t win for two years. He hasn’t won outside of the fall in three. But we all know — when he has it — he’s as pure of an iron player as golf has to match Scheffler.
So when he entered Sunday at last month’s Masters in the final group, it felt like we had him back. Instead, he shot 74 to finish seven behind the winner, Scheffler. To have him back here again, hunting the pin on 15 while Schauffele double-bogeyed to set up their final-group pairing Sunday in Louisville, gives Morikawa a chance to put himself on another level.
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A win takes him from a streaky young prospect who broke out during COVID-19 to joining the exclusive group of eight golfers to reach three majors this century. The way we look at him would change, allowing us to step back and view him as one of the great major players of the era because it says so much more to go through struggles and come back to win a third major four years after the first. There are more consistent golfers than Morikawa, but few can boast eight top-10 finishes in just 17 career majors. Maybe, just maybe, he is the prodigy we thought.
Two leaders putting in some work on the range before dusk@collin_morikawa | @XSchauffele pic.twitter.com/othSpJFEuR
— PGA Championship (@PGAChampionship) May 19, 2024
Xander Schauffele (T1, 15-under)
He was finally having his moment. His chance to prove he had the weekend resiliency to hit the clutch shots and grab a major. As his playing partners stuck in neutral around him, Schauffele hit a 30-foot birdie putt to take a two-shot lead at Valhalla with four holes to go. Once he put his tee shot on 15 into the fairway, one wondered: Is Schauffele really gonna do it?
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Then he airmailed the green by 20 yards. Then his pitch from the rough went only a few feet. He double-bogeyed 15, and it would have been so easy for all to say it was the same old Xander. To his credit, Schauffele closed Saturday with birdies on 17 and 18.
Nobody has more to gain Sunday than Schauffele. He’s already becoming known as the best player without a major, but worse than that, he’s becoming known as someone who can’t close on Sunday. Three times this year already, Schauffele entered Sunday in a final group. He didn’t win any, and two of them he finished four and five back.
He’s one of the most consistent golfers on Earth, maybe behind only Scheffler. He’s only 30 and has 12 top-10 major finishes. But that consistency is now an albatross around Schauffele’s neck until he quiets the noise.
The potential breakout star
Sahith Theegala (3rd, 14-under)
While so many of the names on this board are known commodities, Theegala is the one introducing himself to the greater sports world this weekend. Golf nerds know of the 26-year-old rising star’s absurd talent and promise. But in reality, he has only one top-20 major finish, and even that was a late Sunday 67 to come out of nowhere. He hasn’t been in a true pressure situation in a major.
That means two things. One, we have no clue how he’ll handle it. Two, the sports world finally will see one of golf’s more fun and interesting personalities with an awesome playing style going for a major.
His track record on Sundays isn’t great. He gave away a Sunday lead at the 2022 Waste Management Open with an unlucky bounce on 17. He double-bogeyed 18 at the 2022 Travelers to go from leading to handing Schauffele a win. And his only career win was a fall event, the Fortinet Championship.
But Theegala is an awesome ball striker, a great putter and, after years of driving woes, he’s hitting it great off the tee in 2023. If Theegala wins Sunday, he might become one of the most popular players in golf. He might anyway.
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The red-hot hunters
Bryson DeChambeau (T4, 13-under)
When DeChambeau chipped from the fringe off 18 green and sunk his final shot Saturday for eagle to thrust himself into the Sunday conversation, he let out the most sincere and raw fist pump anyone had ever seen from the iconoclastic star. It served as a reminder — just as his hot start at the Masters did — of the truth about DeChambeau: Golf hated DeChambeau. It’s now so, so happy to have him back.
Bryson DeChambeau EAGLES on 18 😱
He's ONE BACK off the lead!pic.twitter.com/9vODJiMbXF
— PGA Championship (@PGAChampionship) May 18, 2024
Winning Sunday isn’t just validation for DeChambeau. It’s not even just legacy building. It makes us take him seriously from here on out.
The 2020-2021 version of Bryson felt like a fever dream. Almost a fad. He was this polarizing, idiosyncratic thick boy who blew our minds, challenged norms and annoyed a lot of people. When he won the 2020 U.S. Open at Winged Foot, it solidified his philosophies. But we must remember DeChambeau had just two top-10s in his first 23 majors. Then he went to LIV, and you remember most fads go away.
But DeChambeau worked his ass off and fought to get back. He has three top-10s in the last six majors. This week might be four in seven. He’s become more likable. He’s a YouTube and Snapchat star. He’s even more self-aware. But he’s still different. Still a little weird. And if he wins Sunday, he’s here to stay. Maybe for the better.
“I’ve worked really hard to have people help hopefully understand who I am a little bit better,” he said.
Viktor Hovland (T4, 13-under)
Let’s call it how it is. Viktor Hovland was the best golfer in the world eight months ago. Pretending he wasn’t is revisionist history. He stared down Scheffler two weeks in a row to win in Chicago and then Atlanta for the Tour Championship. He and Ludvig Åberg beat Scheffler and Brooks Koepka in the largest Ryder Cup match blowout ever.
And then he messed with it all.
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It’s been covered in depth, but Hovland went down a rabbit hole of fixing his excellent swing, switching between four coaches in a year and having by far the worst season of his career. Now he’s back with Joe Mayo (his coach during last season’s heater) and finds himself shooting consecutive 66s with fantastic iron play to sit two back entering Sunday. It only makes us sad, realizing this could have been Hovland all year.
He’s 26, and he has catching up to do to his peers, but Hovland remains the bright-burning supernova who could surpass anyone if he finds his stride. A Hovland win isn’t so much a monkey off Hovland’s back as it is the much-anticipated step toward a massive launch.
Shane Lowry (T4, 13-under)
You thought Lowry was a good ol’ lovable one-hit wonder, didn’t you? You were within your rights to. Lowry ran away with the 2019 Open Championship, but he’s never been a top-15 player in the world. You might have viewed him as the funny, large Irishman who’s friends with Rory McIlroy.
But Lowry just shot a 62. That’s tied for the best major round in history (Schauffele also shot 62 here Thursday). He’s been in multiple major final groups. He’s learned from his 6-over Sunday at the 2016 U.S. Open against Dustin Johnson. And he’s putting out of his mind this week, leading the field in it.
Lowry has the chance to go from one-hit wonder with a great personality to a key person in golf history. He’d suddenly be a guy who has won two different majors at two extremely different courses, who has played on two Ryder Cup teams and won one.
“To win one is pretty good,” Lowry said Saturday, “but to win multiple, you’re kind of a bit of a different level.”
Justin Rose (T7, 12-under)
Did you know Justin Rose has been world No. 1 five times? Did you know he’s played on six Ryder Cup teams with four European wins? Did you know he has 25 professional wins?
He has been a steady force in the golf world for 20 years, but do you think of him the way you do Dustin Johnson? Or Justin Thomas? Or even a Jose Maria Olazabal type? Whether you should or shouldn’t is a different discussion, but Rose getting a second major immediately recontextualizes his career. He was a lightning bolt at the 2023 Ryder Cup, hitting multiple massive putts in Europe’s win. That combined with a PGA Championship win to add to his 2013 U.S. Open win at Merion takes Rose from solid career to one of the best European golfers of the century.
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Robert MacIntyre (T7, 12-under)
Few think MacIntyre can win this thing. But few thought MacIntyre deserved a Ryder Cup spot, and he earned it on points. The Scotsman has two 66s this week, and glossing over him might be a mistake.
Yes, MacIntyre winning might be viewed as a random winner. It coming at a PGA Championship (often viewed as the lowest of the four majors) wouldn’t help. But it would make us respect the 27-year-old who came over from Europe to play his first PGA Tour season this year.
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'A happy Bob ... is a dangerous Bob': The PGA field is learning that about MacIntyre
Other names to watch
Dean Burmester (9th, 11-under): Burmester won the LIV event in Doral this year and is a great course fit as an awesome tee-to-green player.
Justin Thomas (T10, 10-under): A local star coming from five back in his hometown and earning a third major after a brutal two years of struggles? You can’t write it better.
Tony Finau (T10, 10-under): He’s striking the living daylights out of the ball, but he’s become a horrible putter the last two years. Right now, he’s gaining strokes putting. If he can get hot on the greens for one day, he can go crazy low and earn his first major.
Rory McIlroy (T19, 8-under): Rory shooting Sunday 64s when seemingly out of it for a backdoor top-5 has become something of a meme in recent years. Now you’re telling me he’s seven back at a course that’s allowed two 62s this week? At the course he won his last major at? To catch Koepka at five majors? It’s a long shot, but it’s possible.
Jordan Spieth (T19, 8-under): He’s going for the career grand slam, and the one thing we know about Spieth is he can get hot.
Scottie Scheffler (T24, 7-under): Oh, you’re gonna bet your life on Scottie Scheffler not shooting a 59? I didn’t think so.
(Top photo of Collin Morikawa, left, and Xander Schauffele: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)