It was a very successful first 40 games for the Minnesota Twins, who recovered from a 7-13 start to win 17 of the next 20. With a 24-16 record overall, they’re two games ahead of this same point last year and on pace for 97 wins.
As expected for a team playing this well, there are no shortage of nice individual performances worth highlighting, but Ryan Jeffers still stands out as a relatively easy choice for the Twins’ first-quarter MVP.
Does a player’s breakout year cease being considered their “breakout year” when it’s followed by an even better season? That’s the question raised by Jeffers’ huge first quarter of 2024 on the heels of a career-best 2023.
RYAN JEFFERS!!!
RYAN JEFFERS!!!
RYAN JEFFERS!!!pic.twitter.com/eMvEEcCqep— Bally Sports North (@BallySportsNOR) April 3, 2024
Jeffers struggled so much in 2021 (.199 batting average, demoted to the minors) and 2022 (.208 batting average, broken thumb) that the Twins signed free agent Christian Vázquez to a three-year, $30 million contract to take over as their No. 1 catcher. That motivated Jeffers, who spent last offseason retooling his hitting and throwing mechanics, and played his way back to the top of the depth chart.
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In addition to reclaiming his starting job, Jeffers led all MLB catchers with an .858 OPS during his breakout 2023 season, which included a monster second half when he batted .294/.379/.549 with 10 homers in 45 games. He was voted the Twins’ most improved player and placed fourth on my team MVP ballot. It was a textbook breakout season at age 26.
Which makes this year his … post-breakout breakout, perhaps? Not only does Jeffers again lead all MLB catchers in OPS, but his .988 mark also leads the American League, period. That’s right: Through a quarter of the 2024 season, the league leaders in OPS are Jeffers and Shohei Ohtani, a pair of global superstars whose every move is documented by throngs of reporters.
“I’ve always told you, since the day I got here, I believe I can be the best catcher in baseball,” Jeffers said. “I believe I can do that. We had to get there. And now I feel like we’re at the point I just have to keep doing that. The biggest part of this game is consistency. Not getting complacent. Not feeling comfortable with where we’re at. Really making sure I’m continuing to find where I can improve.”
Finding it increasingly difficult to keep his bat out of the lineup, the Twins have been using Jeffers regularly at designated hitter when he’s not catching, viewing it as a way to dramatically increase his at-bats without as much risk of wearing down. Jeffers and Vázquez continue to split time behind the plate, yet Jeffers is on pace for 567 plate appearances, 232 more than last season’s career-high.
“Jeffers has become one of the better adjustment-making hitters in the league,” manager Rocco Baldelli said. “He’s got a plan for pretty much everything, and he can execute the plan. He’s competing against off-speed and fastballs, up and down, inside and out. And rarely are you able to find a guy who can actually hit all of these different types of pitches.”
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Jeffers leads the AL with a .617 slugging percentage, yet he’s sliced his strikeout rate to a career-low 19 percent, under the MLB average of 22 percent and well below his career rate of 31 percent before this season. He’s posted a league-best .908 OPS in two-strike counts, a staggering 409 points above the MLB average and 413 points better than his pre-2024 career figure.
“I found a really good routine, I found what works for me,” Jeffers said. “Last year, this swing was new. It worked, but it was still very new. I was still learning a lot about myself, a lot about the swing. This year, we’re through that learning curve and we’ve really figured out what works and what doesn’t, and where my body wants to go. It’s showing and paying off, for sure.”
Ryan Jeffers has his 8th home run of the year! pic.twitter.com/I1ApUwHpVJ
— MLB (@MLB) May 9, 2024
This is the type of impact hitter the Twins believed Jeffers could become when they picked him in the second round of the 2018 MLB draft. He was a star at UNC-Wilmington, topping a 1.000 OPS in three straight years, but there was enough skepticism surrounding his defensive skills that many scouts and draft analysts projected him as a future DH and regarded the pick as a “reach.”
However, that poor defensive reputation started to disappear within months of signing with the Twins. Jeffers, a physics major headed for a career in aerospace engineering if not for baseball getting in the way, soaked up knowledge from professional coaches after receiving limited high-level catching instruction in college. He quickly made substantial strides behind the plate.
Jeffers’ pitch-framing metrics have slipped recently after being very strong early in his Twins career, but his throwing has improved to solidly above average and pitchers frequently praise him as a batterymate. In particular, Jeffers’ detailed pre-game preparation and ability to make in-game adjustments based on what he sees from opposing hitters are often cited by teammates and coaches.
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“Jeffers does such a great job of staying in the moment, seeing what the game is telling him,” starter Pablo López said. “And then if we need to listen to the game more and make adjustments here and there, we’ll make those adjustments. He comes up to me always, like, ‘Hey, what do you see? Is there something I can help you with more?’ He takes great pride in knowing his pitchers, what clicks for them.”
Chris Paddack points to the “homework” Jeffers does prior to each game, and the confidence it gives him: “From pitch number one, I’m locked in with Jeffers. I’m going to trust him and he’s going to trust me, and we’re going to go out and dominate. It takes a lot of pressure off me when he’s as good as he is back there. Catchers don’t get enough credit for pitchers’ success.”
Of course, Twins pitchers also like the run support Jeffers’ bat provides.
He played 35 of the first 40 games, hitting .292/.371/.617 with nine homers, 12 doubles and a team-high 30 RBIs, leading the Twins with 1.8 WAR according to FanGraphs. Those are impressive numbers in any context — he leads the league in slugging percentage and OPS — but Jeffers has made an even bigger first-quarter impact than those raw stats suggest thanks to an amazing performance in clutch situations.
Jeffers has hit .333 with a 1.061 OPS with runners in scoring position and .368 with a 1.349 OPS in high-leverage spots. He ranks second among MLB hitters in Win Probability Added, which measures how each plate appearance impacts wins and losses in the context it occurred. Jeffers has been great overall, but he’s been especially great when it matters most, changing games with clutch hits.
“I felt like even last year, there was definitely stuff left on the table,” Jeffers said. “It was like I hadn’t hit my ceiling. I hadn’t maxed out what I could do. You get in trouble when you start feeling complacent and comfortable in this game. … Over the offseason, we dug in deeper. Now the more at-bats I have under my belt, the better I feel with everything.”
RYAN JEFFERS OFF THE BENCH!! #MNTwins pic.twitter.com/RNIVIMwa9y
— Bally Sports North (@BallySportsNOR) April 13, 2024
Jeffers is on pace for 7.2 WAR, which would be the Twins’ highest mark since Joe Mauer’s league MVP-winning 2009 season.
He is on pace for 7.0 WPA, which would be the Twins’ highest mark since Harmon Killebrew’s league MVP-winning 1969 season.
And his 179 OPS+ would be the highest mark in Twins history, a point ahead of Rod Carew’s league MVP-winning 1977 season.
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“I think what makes him so good is he’s never satisfied,” said López, who has a 2.93 ERA throwing to Jeffers. “He’s always looking to get better. That desire is what makes him continue to get better and to show signs of improvement in all aspects of baseball. The hitting, the defense, how much he knows himself, what he needs to change in his approach or if he needs to stay the same.”
The Twins have other deserving first-quarter MVP candidates, with Max Kepler and Willi Castro earning special recognition, but no one can match Jeffers’ all-around impact on both sides of the ball and in the biggest moments. He’s an easy choice for the Twins’ first-quarter MVP and has a viable case for being one of the AL’s five best players this season.
We called 2023 a breakout? Now this is a breakout.
(Photo of Ryan Jeffers, with Carlos Correa, celebrating after hitting a home run: Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / Getty Images)