At Euro 2024, Scotland will play at back-to-back European Championships for the second time in their history. Steve Clarke’s side have their limitations but will nonetheless be aiming to reach the knockout stages at a major tournament — something they’ve never done before.
The Manager
As the man who took Scotland to their first major tournament in 23 years, Steve Clarke’s legacy was secured the moment David Marshall saved the decisive penalty in the qualification play-off shootout against Serbia in November 2020.
Making it to back-to-back Euros has elevated him to certified royalty, but a run into the knockout stages this summer would see him go down as arguably the best manager in Scotland’s history.
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In his first year, from May 2019 onwards, there were serious doubts over his ability to replicate the great organised teams he built at West Bromwich Albion and Kilmarnock in international football. There was even an approach from an English club but that marked a turning point, when Clarke decided to clear out any players who were not fully committed or below the level required.
That clarity allowed him to build an amazingly stable squad over three years and settle on a shape that fluctuates between a 3-5-1-1 and 3-4-2-1, crucially accommodating Kieran Tierney and Andy Robertson on the left side of defence.
The 26-man squad named for Euro 2020 had a combined caps total of 448 — of which veteran goalkeepers Marshall and Craig Gordon accounted for 99. The total is now 757, with 14 players over the quarter-century mark.
Although they disappointed by missing out on the World Cup in Qatar, Scotland reset and qualified for Euro 2024 in October after winning five of their first six qualifiers, including a 2-0 home win over Spain which reduced Rodri to whining that they did not complete 3,000 passes before shooting.
They have lost momentum as they are winless in seven, a run which started with a really poor performance at home against England last September, but there is a clear focus on becoming a better team in possession, having made their defensive shape second nature.
Clarke still feels he was harshly treated as a player when he was only awarded six caps in his career despite making 421 appearances for Chelsea. He has found solace in the dugout, winning 26 of his 55 games, and now aims to break the glass ceiling that his predecessors could not.
The household name in waiting
After Liverpool teenager Ben Doak pulled out with injury, there is a shortage of players who fit this bill, but his replacement, Tommy Conway, who qualifies for Scotland through his grandfather, comes closest.
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He is a name that is still under the radar despite scoring 10 goals in the Championship last season for Bristol City.
The striker has scored in each of his last three appearances for Scot Gemmill’s under-21 side and was voted Bristol City’s young player of the year, having made 42 appearances in all competitions.
His biggest moment in football came in the FA Cup last season when he scored an equaliser away at West Ham to force a replay, before notching the only goal of the game at Ashton Gate.
In the short term, he will add extra mobility up front with target Lyndon Dykes dropping out through injury and has shown a poacher’s instinct in front of goal. But there is hope that he could be the all-rounder that Scotland have been searching for.
Strengths
Scotland have built a club-like camaraderie in their squad. Consistency of selection has created a deep understanding of the system and it gives Clarke’s side a solid base to build from.
After a couple of years of experimenting, Robertson and Tierney have organically found a way to dovetail on the left flank — the former on the overlap and the latter with the driving runs from deep — but Scotland must ensure they utilise the duo to the maximum.
In midfield, Billy Gilmour has grown into the playmaker that everyone hoped he would when he moved to Chelsea at 15 but it is the duo ahead of him, John McGinn and Scott McTominay, who are Scotland’s major weapons.
Their sense of space and ability to break into the box has been the main route to goal for Scotland. The Aston Villa midfielder has 18 goals and 8 assists in 47 starts under Clarke, while McTominay finished as joint-top goalscorer in European qualifying with seven goals in eight games.
Weaknesses
Scotland are still lopsided, like they were going into Euro 2020. They have a shortage of elite goalkeepers, centre-backs and strikers, but the depth of options in those weaker areas has grown.
Jack Hendry and Ryan Porteous have established themselves as the other two central defenders in the system — even if the former has been playing at a lower standard for Steven Gerrard’s Al Ettifaq this season — with Norwich’s Grant Hanley, Rangers’ John Souttar, Nottingham Forest’s Scott McKenna and Leeds’ Liam Cooper next in line.
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Up front, Clarke has favoured Lyndon Dykes or Che Adams recently, as opposed to pairing them together, but Dykes will now miss the tournament after picking up an injury in training. Ryan Christie can operate as the second striker but the question of who will lead the line remains a difficult one.
Scottish Premiership player of the year Lawrence Shankland scored 30 goals for Hearts this season and has been in sublime form, scoring a superb late header to equalise against Georgia in November.
He is the most natural finisher but lacks athleticism, while Adams is more of an all-rounder who can run the channels and bring others into play.
It may be that a different frontman is selected for each game but the lack of a top-level striker does feel like a significant limitation.
Expectations back home
Scotland’s group is slightly more favourable than it was in Euro 2020 when they faced England, Croatia and the Czech Republic, but they do not have the luxury of two games at Hampden this time.
Still, Scotland went into their shell in both home games and did not play with enough expression. The hope is that, at the very least, Scotland do not leave with the same regrets and can be braver in possession.
The opener against the hosts Germany is viewed as a fixture that is best to get out of the way first, when they will be under pressure: a similar mindset to when Scotland almost caused a shock against holders Brazil at the 1998 World Cup.
Switzerland and Hungary are two very good teams, with the latter showing an expert ability to overcome the giants of Europe in the Nations League, but they do not have the superstars of other nations that Scotland should feel inferior to.
They are aided by a relaxed format which will send the best four third-placed teams through to the knockouts, so they have to aim for at least four points and hope Germany clean up against the others.
Getting out of the group has to be the aim. Then, a Scotland playing without fear might just surprise a few.
Scotland’s Euro 2024 squad
Goalkeepers: Angus Gunn (Norwich City), Zander Clark (Hearts), Liam Kelly (Motherwell)
Defenders: Andy Robertson (Liverpool), Kieran Tierney (Real Sociedad), Jack Hendry (Al Ettifaq), Ryan Porteous (Watford), Liam Cooper (Leeds United), Scott McKenna (FC Copenhagen), Grant Hanley (Norwich City), Greg Taylor (Celtic), Anthony Ralston (Celtic), Ross McCrorie (Bristol City)
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Midfielders: Callum McGregor (Celtic), Ryan Christie (Bournemouth), Billy Gilmour (Brighton), John McGinn (Aston Villa), Kenny McLean (Norwich City), Scott McTominay (Manchester United), Stuart Armstrong (Southampton), Ryan Jack (Rangers)
Forwards: Che Adams (Southampton), Tommy Conway (Bristol City), James Forrest (Celtic), Lewis Morgan (New York Red Bulls), Lawrence Shankland (Hearts)