Four Yankees takeaways: Aaron Judge finally breaking out? Anthony Volpe’s leadoff struggles

May 5, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees center fielder Aaron Judge (99) celebrates with teammates after his solo home run during the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
By Chris Kirschner
May 6, 2024

NEW YORK — Juan Soto has been as close to automatic as a baseball player can get with runners in scoring position.

Since the beginning of the season, the New York Yankees outfielder is hitting .440/.500/.880 (11-for-25) with 22 RBIs, three home runs, five walks and only two strikeouts with runners in scoring position. With the bases loaded in the seventh inning of a 2-2 game on Sunday, Soto roped a bases-clearing double down the right-field line, leading the Yankees to a 5-2 win over the Detroit Tigers.

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“I just like the big moments,” Soto said. “I like to be up there. It just gives me a little bit of adrenaline. I want to get the job done so bad.”

Here are four takeaways after the Yankees’ three-game sweep over the Tigers:

Is Aaron Judge finally breaking out?

After a poor series against the Baltimore Orioles where Judge finished 1-for-13, Judge went 5-for-10 against the Tigers with a home run and two doubles. Over his last 50 plate appearances entering Sunday’s game, Judge had the second-highest increase in his xwOBA across MLB, which is a statistic that measures expected contact quality. Judge has started this season slowly. He hasn’t given the Yankees his expected production, but signs are there that he might be breaking out.

“I don’t think that was a struggle,” Soto said of Judge’s April. “It was a tough month for him. I’m not even worried about Judge. I’ve been happy hitting in front of him. I know what kind of hitter he is.”

The most encouraging sign that Judge’s timing is where it needs to be was taking Tigers ace Tarik Skubal’s fastball deep to right field. Last season, Skubal allowed just one home run off his fastball. This year, Judge became the second player to hit a home run off Skubal’s fastball.

“I do feel like he’s looking better,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said of Judge. “He’s still working to get all the way there.”

What should we make of Anthony Volpe?

Since moving to the leadoff spot, Volpe has gone cold. He entered Sunday 19-for-92 at the top of the Yankees’ order with a sub-.600 OPS in 106 plate appearances. Volpe hasn’t been successful as the first batter of the game either. He’s just 4-for-22 with one walk and one hit by pitch.

Boone believes leading off isn’t affecting Volpe’s psyche.

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“He hasn’t been as hot as he was probably the first couple of weeks,” Boone said. “I think it has zero to do with the leadoff position. That’s the ebb and flow of the season, especially young players. It’s hard to hit in this league. I don’t feel he’s far off. Even watching him now, he’s such a better major league hitter than he was a year ago at this time.”

The Yankees don’t have another good option to lead off right now. Soto would make sense because he’s currently the team’s best hitter and has gotten on base more than any player in the sport since breaking into the majors but disrupting his rhythm in any way would be unwise. Judge has led off before, but he’s better in a run-producing spot in the order. So, expect Volpe to continue leading off for the time being until the return of DJ LeMahieu, whose timeline is uncertain.

“We’ll continue to get people back into the mix,” Boone said of his commitment to Volpe leading off. “We’ll see. I don’t worry about where Anthony hits and how he handles it. He’s not one of those guys I worry about with that.”

Volpe was one of the hottest hitters in the majors for the first two weeks of the season, but he also had a BABIP of .448 and a 202 wRC+ before moving to the leadoff spot. That amount of luck wasn’t going to continue. As long as Volpe can be around a league-average hitter by season’s end and provide Gold Glove-level defense, he still holds plenty of value for the Yankees.

The new Michael King?

When it became clear the Yankees were not going to make the playoffs last season, they took a chance on several players who were considered projects or, in Luke Weaver’s case, a first-round bust.

Weaver had a career ERA over 5.00 in his eight major league seasons before the Yankees claimed him off waivers from the Seattle Mariners. He made three starts last season for the Yankees and had a 3.38 ERA. He signed for a guaranteed $2 million in the offseason. This year, the Yankees moved him to the bullpen and he’s been the team’s second-best reliever behind Clay Holmes.

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The Yankees tweaked Weaver’s delivery to have more of a slide step and made him throw just three of his pitches: a four-seam fastball, cutter and changeup. All three of those pitches are performing better than last year. His four-seamer went from an 88 Stuff+ to 122 this year, his changeup from an 83 Stuff+ to 111 and his cutter from 99 to 102. Because his fastball is seeing more ride up in the zone and his changeup more drop, both pitches have helped his chase percentage go from 24.9 percent last year to 33.5 percent this year.

Weaver has become the latest bullpen find for the Yankees who looks like a steal. Because of his background as a starter, it seems logical that he’s emerged as the go-to first option for a multi-inning role out of the bullpen. When asked if he was this year’s Michael King, Boone wouldn’t go that far just yet.

“We always want to name the Michael King of the bullpen,” Boone laughed. “I think we have a couple of guys who are capable of things like that. It’s such a different arsenal than Michael. I will tell you that I have a lot of confidence in a lot of different roles that he can serve down there.”

Gerrit Cole takes a big step

Cole threw 15 pitches off the bullpen mound on Saturday. His fastball averaged 89 mph and touched 91 mph in what was a non-maximum effort outing for the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner.

“It was exciting,” Cole said. “This was a good day for me. I was fired up.”

Boone said Cole is expected to throw another bullpen at some point this week. Cole would not put a timeline on when he thinks he may be back in the Yankees’ rotation but he is eligible to come off the 60-day injured list at the end of the month. Because of where he is in his throwing program, it’s almost impossible Cole will be ready to go by then. The Yankees have said multiple times that Cole will need a full spring training, so roughly six weeks that includes multiple rehab starts to return.

The biggest thing for Cole and the Yankees is their ace hasn’t experienced any pain in his elbow and has not experienced any setbacks in his recovery.

(Photo of Aaron Judge: Vincent Carchietta / USA Today)

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Chris Kirschner

Chris Kirschner is a staff writer for The Athletic covering the New York Yankees. He previously covered the Atlanta Hawks from 2018-2022 for The Athletic. Chris was named Georgia's Sportswriter of the Year in 2021 for his work covering the Hawks. Chris is a native of Bronx, NY. Follow Chris on Twitter @chriskirschner