Nikolaj Ehlers trade destinations: If the Jets move him, what can they get?

Nikolaj Ehlers might not be with the Winnipeg Jets beyond this summer. His $6 million AAV contract comes to an end after the 2024-25 season. If the Jets cannot extend him, they need to find a way to return assets for a player whose qualities they have yet to fully exploit.

Ehlers has spent the past several years delivering first-line results with second-line minutes. He’s brought chaos alongside even strength excellence to his top line promotions, adding an element of irksome decisions with the puck to a formula whose end result has been elite regular season results. Three coaching staffs have watched him dramatically outscore his opponents alongside Mark Scheifele without ever keeping him in that role. Ehlers led the Jets in five-on-five points per minute (again) in 2023-24 and has led all Jets in points per minute of ice time over the duration of his current contract. Last season, the Jets played him less often than third-line right winger Mason Appleton.

It’s also true that Ehlers’ playoff resume will haunt him until he overcomes it. Nothing is promised on that front, and it’s looking less and less likely that he’ll get the opportunity to improve upon that resume in Winnipeg. The Jets are indeed in the process of a head coaching search — one wonders if new leadership could change what seems like an inevitable exit — but I believe that Ehlers will be shopped ahead of the NHL Draft.

Ehlers has a 10-team no-trade clause. The 28-year-old speedster has scored at a 62-point per 82-game pace while playing second-line, second power-play minutes. Health has been concern; he played 82 games in 2023-24 but has averaged 71 games per 82-game season throughout his career. He isn’t playing for Denmark at the World Championships to look after a lingering neck ailment.

Ehlers has been shopped before, but never so seriously that talks reached the boiling point. Things could be different this summer.

Where might he go? Who might the Jets get back? It’s a big, dangerous question that will influence Winnipeg’s next attempts to get over its first-round hump.

Ottawa Senators

Jakob Chychrun might be a perfect fit for Winnipeg’s needs. He’s 26, is scheduled for 2025 free agency just like Ehlers and plays on a team heavily invested in left-handed defencemen like Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot, which makes him more expendable than he might be on other rosters. Chychrun has had success playing against tough competition in a top-four role — importantly, this includes time playing the right side as well as left — although he spent too much time in his own zone on an outmatched Senators team last season. He put up more impressive offence in Arizona but still scored often enough on Ottawa’s power play to hit 41 points in 82 games on a deeper, better balanced team. It’s easy to see him teaming up with Brenden Dillon (or taking Dillon’s spot, if the Jets are unable to sign Dillon) on Winnipeg’s second pair — a spot the Jets should be looking to upgrade if they can.

Ottawa isn’t rich in cap room, mind you. The Senators still need to sign Shane Pinto and Erik Brannstrom, but they sorely need secondary scoring and Ehlers’ $6 million cap hit isn’t so far beyond Chychrun’s $4.6 million that a trade is out of reach. It should also be noted that Chychrun has a 10-team no-trade clause, just as Ehlers does. The Senators’ lack of cap space, lack of “extra” first- or second-round picks and 31st-place finish in Scott Wheeler’s prospect rankings could make a futures-based deal difficult to arrange if the Jets and Senators try but fail to build a deal involving Chychrun.

Utah HC

Utah is ambitious, loaded with good young players and has 10 second-round picks (and seven third-round picks) in the next three drafts. It’s the sort of franchise that can and likely will make major splashes in the name of competing early on in its existence. The as-of-yet-unnamed team could send the Jets a package similar to Winnipeg’s Jacob Trouba return (a first-round pick and a young, third pairing defenceman with upside) without sweating; if that’s too rich, Utah could easily build a package of futures to satisfy the Jets’ needs.

Winnipeg doesn’t have a first- or a third-round pick this year. It doesn’t have a second- or a fourth-round pick next year. The roster is currently suffering the effects of an era from 2017 to 2020 without a ton of draft capital, although Cole Perfetti, Brad Lambert, Elias Salomonsson and Rutger McGroarty offer a more promising future. I think an Ehlers trade could be the team’s most direct route toward recouping the costs of the Sean Monahan, Tyler Toffoli, Nino Niederreiter and Vladislav Namestnikov trades.

There’s also a chance that Winnipeg’s self-evaluation prioritizes classic, power-forward style truculence. Lawson Crouse ($4.3 million, signed for three more seasons) could be a difficult value proposition, given Ehlers’ pending UFA status, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s a player type the Jets covet.

Carolina Hurricanes

The Hurricanes and Jets discussed an Ehlers trade in the buildup to the 2019 draft. Those discussions (obviously) didn’t turn into a trade, given that Ehlers spent the next five seasons leading all Jets in points per minute of ice time as opposed to playing for the Hurricanes.

Despite being known as an elite forechecking team, capable of hounding the puck everywhere without ever finishing its plays, Carolina finished with the seventh most goals in the NHL this season. Jake Guentzel has been a particularly impactful acquisition, with 25 points in 17 regular season games and then nine more points in 10 playoff games. It may be that Carolina’s best use of its own cap space is to re-sign Guentzel and its many free agents: noteworthy UFAs also include Teuvo Teravainen, Jordan Martinook, Brett Pesce, Brady Skjei and Tony DeAngelo, while Martin Necas and Seth Jarvis are headed for substantial raises as restricted free agents.

The only way I can find a fit now is if one of Carolina’s high-priced veteran defencemen — Dmitry Orlov, Brent Burns or Jaccob Slavin — came back in the trade. All three are currently scheduled to become free agents in 2025, while Orlov ($7.75 million) carries a bigger cap hit than Ehlers does. That could be useful, given the cap constraints Carolina is facing.

Buffalo Sabres

Buffalo has one of the most exciting groups of young talent in the NHL, with Tage Thompson, Dylan Cozens, Rasmus Dahlin and JJ Peterka supplemented by Owen Power, Zach Benson, Jack Quinn, Peyton Krebs and Bowen Byram. All of these players are either locked up long-term or under team control as restricted free agents. In some ways, this makes Ehlers a perfect fit: Buffalo could absorb his $6 million AAV in 2024-25, while not being tied to it the following season — which just so happens to be when Peterka, Quinn and Byram will all need new contracts.

The Sabres played to a positive goal differential last season, despite missing the playoffs by seven points. They’re an intriguing mix of on the way up and in need of improvement, whether it comes from their own development or an upgrade like Ehlers. Buffalo also has the top prospect pool in the NHL and all of its own picks in the first four rounds of the next three drafts, offering a ton of options for futures-based trades. Matthew Fairburn has recently written about the possibility of Buffalo moving the No. 11 pick.

That’s where things get tricky, though.

It’s easy to talk about that pick or to covet prospects like Noah Ostlund. That calibre of prospect seems like a difficult ask for one year of Ehlers’ services. Matthew Savoie would have intrigue, too, but also seems like the sort of prospect Buffalo would resist moving. The undersized overager tore apart the WHL last season. Defencemen Ryan Johnson, Nikita Novikov and Maxim Strbak may also have appeal to the Jets, whose prospect pool is deeper up front than on the back end.

Detroit Red Wings

Detroit lost the final playoff spot in the East to Washington in painful and dramatic fashion. Its core remains in place, with Dylan Larkin leading the way and youngsters Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider in need of new contracts as restricted free agents. (Former Jets forward Andrew Copp was also a big part of the Red Wings’ third line, scoring 33 points and helping anchor Detroit’s bottom-six forward group.)

On the surface, Detroit appears to have a roster spot and a bit of cap room for a play-driving, five-on-five star like Ehlers. Patrick Kane scored 47 points in 50 games but seems like a UFA departure. David Perron and Shayne Gostisbehere are also notable free agents, each of whom made over $4 million last season.

The Red Wings have at least one draft pick in every round of the next three drafts, while finishing second to Buffalo in Scott Wheeler’s prospect rankings. From Elias Salomonsson’s Skellefteå teammate Axel Sandin Pellika to former Brandon Wheat Kings star Nate Danielson, the Red Wings boast a deep group of prospects — just like the Sabres do. And, just as with Buffalo, the tricky part is identifying prospects Detroit might part with.

It’s hard to believe the upper echelon of prospects is available for a 2025 UFA, as good as Ehlers is. The Jets did well to acquire Morgan Barron, a first-round pick and a second-round pick for Copp (once all of the trade conditions were sorted out). I wonder if that’s the bar to clear for one full season of Ehlers.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Pittsburgh starts its offseason cap-strapped and frustrated by an inability to turn a stunning season from Sidney Crosby into a playoff spot. There’s a lot more pressure on Kyle Dubas to build a winner in a hurry: beyond the obvious aging concerns, Crosby is entering the final year of his 12-year, $8.7 million AAV contract, with Evgeni Malkin up next in 2026. The team seems desperate to give its longtime stars one more shot at the playoffs and, if Ehlers were cheaper than $6 million, it would be easy to imagine a hockey trade developing between the Penguins and Jets.

Instead, one is left looking at 2025 UFA Reilly Smith’s $5 million AAV contract after a disappointing 40-point Penguins debut season. Smith is a left-shooting Canadian winger whose best seasons both involved beating Winnipeg in the playoffs; he was a Cup champion in Vegas last year while also part of the original 2017-18 Golden Knights club. Maybe there’s a way to supplement Smith, 33, with draft picks, or to find Pittsburgh alternate salary cap relief. Either way, the Penguins’ inclusion on this list is about pressure and urgency in that market more than an obvious trade fit.

The game changes if Winnipeg can sign Ehlers to a contract extension prior to a trade — just as it did with PL Dubois last summer before shipping him to Los Angeles. There’s much more value in him if he’s signed long-term than as a pending UFA. There’s also the possibility of a new head coach opening doors for Ehlers that have most frequently been closed to him throughout his Jets career. It’s possible to conceive of circumstances that lead to his return next season.

At this stage, however, I’m expecting that Winnipeg will look to move its underutilized even-strength star. The Jets have gotten nine valuable seasons from him; the 10th is far from guaranteed.

If it’s up to me, Chychrun has a lot of appeal. Prospects, draft picks and trades that depend on cap-strapped partners are more difficult to evaluate. I also think the Jets would benefit more from a short-to-medium-term Ehlers extension but I’m not convinced that’s in the cards.

(Photo: Ron Chenoy / USA Today)