Can Mychal Givens regain his previous form — and play himself out of Baltimore?

Let me take you back to April 6 — a much less frustrating time, when the Orioles only had five losses instead of 110. On that Friday, the Orioles faced the Yankees in New York, winning 7-3 in 14 innings thanks to a grand slam by Pedro Álvarez. But a few innings earlier in the 11th inning, Mychal Givens uncorked a wild pitch with the potential winning run on third base and had to make a quick, athletic play at the plate to save the game:

Such an exciting (and legal) play — to dart home and grab the feed from Caleb Joseph while sliding in between the runner and the plate — would have been impressive no matter the situation. But to do so during a clutch moment in extra innings made it superb.

Unfortunately, the positives from that game are part of only a small amount of fun moments for the 2018 Orioles. And despite Givens’ game-saving play and two shutout innings in that win, his season hasn’t gone according to plan. He has in fact been pretty average. Here’s how his stat line compares to the average American League reliever:

Givens: 4.15 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 24.9 K%, 9.8 BB%

Average AL RP: 4.09 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 23.2K%, 8.9 BB%

With his 3.14 FIP, Givens is getting credit for keeping the ball in the park (his HR/9 is 0.50). It’s worth noting that Givens’ xFIP, which assumes a league-average home run per fly ball ratio, is 4.19. The average AL reliever has an xFIP of 4.14.

The Orioles were (and still are) expecting more from Givens, but he’s far from the only O’s player to underachieve in 2018 — almost every player on the team’s opening-day roster not named Manny Machado and Richard Bleier fits into that category. Still, it’s worth looking at where he stands as he heads into next season, one when he’ll likely be one of the team’s few remaining valuable trade chips.

Before 2018, in essentially 2 ½ seasons, Givens had never posted an ERA over 3.13 and a strikeout percentage under 27 percent. But with 73 ⅔ innings pitched this season and only a handful of games remaining, Givens will finish with an ERA over 4 and a K% around 25 percent.

More alarming is the fact that Givens’ K% has dropped every year since his rookie season in 2015:

2015: 32.5%

2016: 30.7%

2017: 27.9%

2018: 24.9%

That decline in whiffs has also coincided with opposing batters swinging at fewer out-of-zone offerings from Givens, along with him opting to throw more four-seam fastballs and fewer sliders:

One issue for Givens has been that even though he has three pitches (the fastball, slider and a changeup), he only throws the fastball and slider against right-handed batters, and the fastball and changeup against left-handed batters. Per Baseball Savant, Givens has thrown only one changeup to a right-handed batter this season (against Mookie Betts in June), and he’s only thrown one slider to a lefty (against Brett Phillips in September).

Since Givens almost entirely limited the usage of his slider against lefties, he hasn’t come close to the drastic platoon issues he dealt with in 2016 (.437 wOBA vs. LH; .233 wOBA vs. RH). That part has been encouraging, but with hitters only having to gear up for two pitches, they are chasing less often, and Givens hasn’t been able to miss as many bats.

He has also struggled with his control at times this year. From 2016 to 2017, he was able to cut his walk percentage from 11.5 percent to 7.9 percent, but that number is back up to almost 10 percent this season.

There are worse things than an average season from a reliever, and there have been some positives. Givens’ average fastball velocity has held steady between 95-96 mph, which is a good sign. His batted ball profile also doesn’t seem to be a concern: his average exit velocity (85.1 mph) and hard-hit percentage (29.1 percent) are both lower than last season. Considering his BABIP was 46 points lower last season, it’s worth wondering if he was more fortunate then or just a little less lucky now (or both).

In Givens, the Orioles have a 28-year-old reliever who figures to be above average the next few years, even if he has a couple of warning signs. But he’s also headed for his first arbitration-eligible year in 2019, which means he’ll start getting a little more expensive (especially if he keeps the closer role and accumulates more saves, which is rewarded in the arbitration system).

During the trade deadline, the Orioles were hesitant to deal Givens, but they moved away from their “untouchable” stance as their position as sellers became crystal clear. Now that the Orioles are firmly in rebuild mode, Givens could help them in that process next year if he regains some of his dominance from previous seasons and re-establishes himself as a useful relief weapon (in particular, one who’s under team control through 2021).

The Orioles need as many young, high-ceiling players as they can get, and if they have a chance to trade him, Givens’ fate could be similar to that of Zach Britton, Darren O’Day and Brad Brach this year. It’ll be bittersweet if and when yet another player is dealt from the Orioles’ winning years, but the goal is to get there again. Dealing Givens in 2019 could help.

(Top photo of Givens: Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)