How should the Wild handle their complicated goaltending decision? Diving deep on the options

ST. PAUL, Minn. — Filip Gustavsson can read a room.

He’s a smart guy. It’s not just the riddles he comes up with for teammates. The 25-year-old goaltender has lived and learned, already being traded twice in his young career.

So when it comes to a goaltending tandem, he knows there’s one simple truth:

Two can tango. Three is a crowd.

The reality is that the Wild’s goaltending situation is a fascinating aspect of this important summer. The one lock is that Marc-Andre Fleury will be here next season, thanks to the one-year, $2.5 million deal he signed on the eve of the season finale. Whether Fleury is the mentor for touted prospect Jesper Wallstedt remains to be seen. A lot hinges on what Minnesota decides to do with Gustavsson, the goalie many thought would be their No. 1 and bridge and then partner to Wallstedt before a disappointing 2023-24 season.

“There’s always a business side to hockey,” Gustavsson said. “I like it here and would love to be back next year and try to redeem what happened this year. We’ll see.”

Gustavsson was in Vezina Trophy conversations in 2022-23 before struggling with consistency and posting an .899 save percentage in 2023-24.

The Wild will almost assuredly listen on him leading up to June’s NHL Draft. But general manager Bill Guerin wasn’t giving away much when asked recently what factors will go into his decisions on goaltending.

“Honestly I don’t know if I have a great answer for that question right now,” Guerin said. “I mean there’s a lot that goes into it. I’m comfortable with our goalies the way it is now. We’re going to have to talk about it, assess everything, really find out where everybody is. What’s the workload going to be like for (Fleury)? What’s it going to be like for Gus? How many games do we need (Wallstedt) to get, because he needs to get more than he got this year. So all those things are going to kind of come into play. I just don’t have anything definite for you. We’re going to talk about that.”

So what are the options and what factors are in play? Let’s dive deep.

Fix the “Gus Bus”

It would be easier if the Wild knew whether Gustavsson was the apparent No. 1 from 2022-23 or the impossible-to-predict goalie from last season.

The drop off was clear in the basic stats (.931 save percentage to .899, 2.10 goals-against average to 3.06) and emphasized by advanced stats.

Here are his five-on-five numbers from the past two seasons, per Evolving-Hockey:

The difference between the two seasons, among many things, was the consistency.

There was the brilliant 41-save opening night shutout of the defending Eastern Conference champion Panthers. Then a five-game stretch in which he allowed a combined 27 goals. There was the nine-goals-in-seven-games stretch after John Hynes was hired (.954 save percentage from Nov. 28 to Dec. 16). And the injury on Dec. 30 and lack of consistency that followed (.876 save percentage from Jan. 13 to March 3).

“I would say it was ups and downs,” Gustavsson said. “Some very good games, some very poor games. Way more inconsistent than last year. Very frustrating because you can play so good sometimes and then you have bad performances.”

As goalie coach Frederic Chabot put it, “Too much difference between his great games and bad games. It’s not every day you have your ‘A’ game, but you’ve got to find a way to be good, to find your ‘B’ game, where you can still help the team win. But you just feel some days you don’t have it, just find a way.”

What needs to change?

Two things: Gustavsson’s conditioning and his mental approach.

Guerin has cited Gustavsson’s fitness and practice habits as needing work since he arrived in Minnesota. That’ll be a focus this summer.

“That’s why some people make it to the NHL and have good careers and some don’t,” Gustavsson said. “Everyone has those very high levels for a few games. But the ones that are really great can keep it that way more consistently throughout their whole career instead of just doing one, two, three games here and then they’re doing bad things.”

One thing that could help Gustavsson this offseason is that he’ll likely be participating for Sweden in May’s world championships. Gustavsson typically doesn’t get back on the ice in the offseason until early August due to the lack of availability in northern Sweden. Getting right back into competing a month after the season could be big.

So could getting an earlier start in Minnesota before camp. It’s not just Gustavsson’s summer routine but also his practice habits that need work — something Hynes brought up a few times this season.

“The old saying is, ‘You play like you practice, practice like you play,'” Chabot said. “It all feeds together. Works together. You need to bring that level of fitness and hard work every day. Then the games become easy, because your fitness is so high, you don’t get so tired, and you’re used to competing and working in really tough situations in practice that you hardly see in games. Gus, this year, his habits have gotten better. But he can still get better.”

Another area Gustavsson is focusing on is between the ears. There were too many times this season when there were swings in games that Gustavsson didn’t handle well. Gustavsson said there are some “personal things” he needs to sort out to be even better.

“I think the game is there,” Gustavsson said. “I think it’s more about a mental mindset. … When you lose your head a little bit, to be able to work through that and find a way. Because when you’re at this level, it’s mostly about how you approach the game, how you handle your brain during the games.

“If the brain isn’t there, you don’t perform at your highest level.”

Gustavsson appeared to have that handled in his first season in Minnesota and was asked how he unlocked that in his game back then.

“Well, if you’re winning, it’s very easy,” Gustavsson said. “You just feel happiness, getting two points all the time and life is good. When you lose a few or you play bad, you start questioning yourself.”

Chabot suggested that Gustavsson, like many athletes, struggled with handling outside noise.

“Today, the players have a much bigger challenge dealing with media,” Chabot said. “Social media. Trying to block it out and not pay attention to it really helps. It’s a lot of stuff you don’t need to worry about, don’t need to listen to.”

Making it Wallstedt time

If the Wild feel Wallstedt is ready to be in the NHL full-time, it will make their decision easier.

Just find the best deal for Gustavsson and hand the net to arguably the best goalie prospect in the league.

The issue is, can the Wild really say that yet?

Guerin brought it up, saying, “You don’t want to force (Wallstedt)” before he’s ready. It’s one thing to bring a top prospect goalie up, but to play him 30-plus games is another matter. What they have to be encouraged about is how Wallstedt played after his rocky debut in Dallas in January, an assignment that Guerin takes full blame for (the wrong circumstances to put the kid in).

Wallstedt won his second and third NHL starts, against the Blackhawks (a shutout) and Sharks, in early April and handled himself well.

“His first experience was a tough experience and it could have affected him, but he didn’t fold,” Chabot said. “He got pissed off. He went back. He worked hard. He got better. And we gave him two easier games, but he did the job. He was ready. It was a nice improvement in his game. Now he’s starting to understand what it takes and where his game needs to be.”

Wallstedt talked about how much he learned from his NHL debut, how much more confident and comfortable he is now — not only during games but around the dressing room and with teammates.

“Maybe I wasn’t as ready during that game as I would be today.”
I spent an afternoon in Iowa w/ #NHL debut, Hynes’ pep talk, Fleury as a mentor. “He wants to be the man.” https://t.co/2QMPZiKu2R pic.twitter.com/8JzVLvxYrT

— Joe Smith (@JoeSmithNHL) April 3, 2024

How can the Wild tell if he’s ready or not?

“He’s on the right track, that’s all I can say,” Chabot said. “He’s doing the right things. His body language and the way he plays the games. The way he’s playing (in Iowa), he carried the load, played a lot of games, was good on most nights. He’s right on track to make it here. He’s just got to keep doing what he’s doing.”

In any scenario, Wallstedt will get more NHL games next season. He’s not going to benefit from another full season in Iowa. It’s just a matter of whether he’s part of a tandem with Fleury or is a third goalie or call-up getting spot starts. Part of the advantage of keeping Fleury, though, is for the goalie of the future to learn from the future Hall of Famer. And if you ask Wallstedt, that setup is ideal.

“That’d be sick,” he said. “I think the biggest thing with him is his presence. Feeling him when he’s around you. He just brings something else. It’s hard to put into words. It’s something with him that gives you confidence, makes practice even more fun. Having him in your surroundings gives you 2 percent extra.

“I felt that as soon as I was practicing. … He didn’t even say anything to me. I look at him. ‘OK, Flower is here. It’s Flower. He’s played in the NHL as long as I’ve lived. He’s that guy. You grew up with him and (Henrik) Lundqvist, they were playing against each other. It’s just Flower. He’s the guy. It’s special to be around him. It’s something you don’t take for granted. It makes you want to compete with him.”

The ‘Flower’ factor

Whether Fleury is a No. 2/tandem with Gustavsson or a mentor to Wallstedt, there’s one simple fact.

He’s going to have to play a huge chunk of games next season, and he’ll have to be better.

When asked at his post-signing news conference how well he had played, the three-time Cup champion smiled and admitted, “I don’t think I played that well.”

Fleury had an .895 save percentage, the lowest of his 17-season career. It wasn’t that he wasn’t good. He came through after the All-Star break with eight wins in a 10-start stretch, grabbing hold of the net from a struggling Gustavsson.

“Guys like ‘Flower,’ they’re special, they’ve got a special set of skills,” Chabot said. “Not just physical skills but mental skills that help them play at this high level (for) so long. If you’re at this age right now, it’s harder to do it. But his personality helps him stay at this level.

“There are some days when it’s harder. But most of the time, he’s right up there with everybody else.”

Fleury said there were many times this season when he felt “this is it” for his career. But during the second half of the season, he was rejuvenated, both in his love of the game and competing, and in what he had left. But the key for the Wild is preserving Fleury as he turns 40 and putting him in the best position to succeed.

Does that mean Fleury can be penciled in for 40 games like he played this past season? Fleury had 45 starts in 2022-23, 36 in 2023-24.

“I don’t think we’re there,” Chabot said. “You’ve got to take care of a guy like that, have got to help him perform. He really played well this year because we didn’t play him much early on. When his workload got heavy, you could see the performance go down a little bit. So managing his workload is very important.”

Fleury didn’t say how many games he expects to start or what he thinks is best. He’ll roll with the team’s plan.

“I’m here to (do) whatever they need me to,” Fleury said. “I feel fortunate with one more go-round at this. I think Wally’s a very talented kid. He’s a big goalie. He moves well. He’s played well here in the last two games of the season. I think he’s got a good head on his shoulders, too, and whatever way I can help out I’ll do, and I’ll be looking forward to watching him and Gus play for many years to come.”

What’s next?

The Wild enter this summer with two plans:

One with Gustavsson as part of the tandem, one with him not.

Hynes met with Gustavsson at the exit meetings and felt good about how they left it.

“I think he was very well thought out in his meeting, and he recognizes some things that need to improve,” Hynes said. “There’s a clear plan in place for him. We’ll stay connected on it this summer, whether it’s myself or Freddy (Chabot), with him. Sometimes in a tougher year, you learn those lessons of maybe you could get away with certain things before. And then when you go into a situation where it doesn’t, I think sometimes it ignites or ignites someone to realize that there needs to be a certain improvement.”

When Guerin signed Gustavsson to a three-year deal with a $3.75 million average annual value last summer, he said the Swede had a chance to prove he’d be a No. 1. And publicly, he’s standing by that.

“Oh yeah, he can handle the No. 1,” Guerin said. “Yeah, he can handle those types of games and numbers. He can handle it all. But you know, it’s up to us to help him out, stay on him and make sure he’s getting the right workload. Practice, post-practice and all that stuff. He can handle it.”

As much as Guerin might want to say the play in front of the goaltenders led to their season-sinking performances, the numbers don’t bear that out. The Wild gave up 18.63 goals more than expected at all strengths, according to Evolving-Hockey, with Fleury at 9.03, Gustavsson 6.83 and Wallstedt 2.77.

These heat maps, via HockeyViz, show the workload in front of Gustavsson at five-on-five wasn’t much different from the previous season:

Ultimately, summer decisions could depend on what kind of offers the Wild get for Gustavsson. They’re not just going to give him away. Perhaps what he does at the world championships or how he attacks the summer can change perception. There also may not be as much interest in Gustavsson as they’d like.

The Wild are one of about half of the league’s teams with some amount of uncertainty when it comes to their goaltending. And Gustavsson isn’t alone in coming off a down season and potentially being available.

“If you look around the league, analytically, and all those numbers, there are a lot of guys that are right where he is,” Chabot said. “Other No. 1s in the league that people think are awesome and great but had average years. But they are playoff teams and great teams, so nobody talks about them. When teams make the playoffs, it gets overlooked. ‘That guy has a history of being great, he had a down year.’ Now Gus has to go back and have another great year. And people will remember the good ones.

“It’s in his hands.”

(Top photos of Jesper Wallstedt, Filip Gustavsson and Marc-Andre Fleury: Ron Chenoy / USA Today and Bailey Hillesheim / Getty Images)