It’s been almost a month since UNC’s season ended, and the Tar Heels’ roster already looks dramatically different.
And given the many moves still left to come, that churn isn’t anywhere near finished.
Let’s dive into what I’m hearing:
What we know
Three players from this season’s Sweet 16 team — Armando Bacot, Cormac Ryan, and Paxson Wojcik — are out of eligibility. Replacing Bacot and Ryan, who finished second and fourth in scoring, respectively, will be especially tough. Bacot led the team in rebounding (10.3 rpg) and Ryan made the second-most 3s on the team, behind only RJ Davis. In addition to their on-court contributions, those two were among UNC’s oldest players and best leaders.
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For now, only one player has entered the transfer portal: forward James Okonkwo, who has since committed to Akron. Sophomore guard Seth Trimble, arguably the best athlete and perimeter defender on the team, entered the portal earlier this month … but announced on Tuesday that he’ll instead be withdrawing his name and returning to UNC. Trimble cut his turnover percentage almost in half compared to his freshman season, per KenPom, while also becoming a more reliable scorer. He’s an ideal third guard, and one who can compete to start in the future.
Then there’s Harrison Ingram, who announced this weekend that he will be entering the NBA Draft. Ingram has maintained his college eligibility, which his public announcement did not mention … but the internal expectation is that Ingram is gone and will remain in the draft regardless.
Where might Ingram go? The Athletic’s NBA Draft expert Sam Vecenie had Ingram at No. 58 on his recent Big Board. That’s a reasonable ranking; NBA sources The Athletic spoke to — who were granted anonymity because they aren’t authorized to publicly discuss draft prospects — are intrigued by Ingram’s potential, but still have questions after his lone season at UNC. Despite Ingram’s ideal size at 6-foot-7 and 235 pounds, for example, he’s a very limited athlete. Can he guard NBA-caliber wings? Scouts aren’t sure, and accordingly forecast Ingram as more of a stretch-four (and even potential small-ball five) at the next level.
Which leaves UNC waiting on one more massive decision.
What’s next for RJ Davis?
Sources familiar with Davis’ thinking are in lockstep with UNC’s internal expectation: that Davis will declare for the NBA Draft while maintaining his college eligibility … and then ultimately return to Chapel Hill for his fifth season.
If he does, Davis — the ACC Player of the Year, a First-Team All-American, and the Jerry West Award winner — would be in line for a seven-figure payday, thanks to various NIL opportunities.
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If Davis were three inches taller, his decision might turn out much differently. But at just 6 feet and 160 pounds, he isn’t drawing serious NBA interest. He did not appear in the top 100 of The Athletic’s latest Big Board, and two NBA scouts predicted that Davis would not be selected in this summer’s draft. There just aren’t many NBA examples of successful 6-foot guards; the Houston Rockets’ Fred VanVleet is one of the few, but he went undrafted out of Wichita State in 2016 before spending large chunks of his rookie season in the G-League.
Davis is already cemented as a UNC great — his jersey will hang in the Smith Center rafters — but he has a chance to improve that legacy even further with a fifth season. Davis is currently UNC’s single-season 3-point leader (113) and the program’s all-time leader in free-throw percentage (85.8 percent). He’s also fifth all-time in scoring … but if he returns, he would have a realistic shot at breaking Tyler Hansbrough’s record. Davis certainly doesn’t need to prove anything else at the college level, but there are more accolades — and money — awaiting if he chases a national championship one more time.
One last note on Davis’ pro prospects: While he is unlikely to be drafted, he would almost certainly still earn a Summer League invite, where he’d likely compete for one of 90 two-way spots in the NBA. Even if he were to secure one of those, his NIL earnings next season would almost certainly outpace his professional paycheck — and especially so if he ultimately ends up playing overseas.
Scholarship situation
With all that said, here’s an update on UNC’s current scholarship situation by position:
- Guards: Elliot Cadeau, Trimble, Ian Jackson
- Wings: Drake Powell
- Bigs: Jalen Washington, Jae’Lyn Withers, Zayden High, James Brown
If Davis returns, that would leave Hubert Davis and his staff with four scholarships to fill via the transfer portal.
Freshmen intel
Any players UNC adds in the transfer portal will have to complement the elite high school talent Hubert Davis is bringing in this summer: top-10 recruits Ian Jackson and Drake Powell.
Jackson is a five-star shooting guard ranked No. 9 nationally, per the 247Sports Composite. At 6-foot-5 and 185 pounds, Jackson has ideal size to play either perimeter spot in North Carolina’s secondary break — and his skill set is equally as tailor-made. Jackson has strong scoring instincts and thanks to his speed, excels attacking the basket. His jump shot, according to evaluators who have seen him, is his swing skill, and the thing that will determine just how impactful he is as a college freshman. Pencil Jackson in as a starter, likely next to Cadeau and Davis, and as someone this coaching staff will depend on from the jump.
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Powell — a 6-foot-6, 195-pound wing ranked 10th nationally — should also play as a freshman, but likely less than Jackson. Powell was one of my favorite high school players to watch in the last two or three classes, mostly because he’s a suffocating defensive player already; he has exceptional instincts and timing, which show up when he steals the ball or blocks shots. Powell is further along defensively than offensively, although that shouldn’t inhibit his playing time early — if anything, that’ll help his case, as Hubert Davis looks to build another top-10 defense. Offensively, Powell can score, especially as a finisher inside, but his jump shot remains a work in progress. He’s a better passer than shooter right now, with solid vision and a propensity for setting up his teammates. I’ve heard Theo Pinson comparisons for Powell, and I don’t think those are unreasonable; if anything, I’d say Powell is a better defensive player right now than Pinson was entering college. Expect him to be a key contributor off the bench, especially given UNC’s present dearth of wings.
Lastly, there’s developmental three-star big man James Brown, who is ranked No. 108 nationally. Brown is UNC’s lowest-rated commit since Will Shaver, and he shouldn’t factor into the frontcourt rotation this coming season.
Transfer portal intel
What everyone wants to know: Who is UNC adding via the transfer portal?
I’ll offer a name or two in a second, but first, focus on the larger needs. They are, in no particular order:
- At least one starting-caliber big wing, ideally one who shoots it well from 3
- A rotational center who can compete to start with Washington
- Another rotational wing
The Tar Heels were in on former five-star recruit and Kentucky center Aaron Bradshaw, who ultimately committed to Ohio State. UNC has since been linked to several big men, including North Carolina native and former Tennessee starter Jonas Aidoo … but industry sources suggest Aidoo is likely to end up at either Baylor or Arkansas. Whoever UNC adds at center, expect that player to be defensive-minded; UNC finished with the nation’s No. 8 adjusted defensive efficiency this season, per KenPom, and the internal hope is to replicate that success next season.
As for UNC’s top transfer portal priority right now? That would be 6-foot-7 wing Cade Tyson, the younger brother of former Clemson star and current Denver Nugget Hunter Tyson. Tyson is ranked No. 13 in The Athletic’s list of best available transfers and is the second-best wing to become available this offseason. Tyson hit 46.5 percent of his 3-pointers last season, on 5.5 attempts per game; that rate was the 15th-best in all of college basketball last season, so it’s easy to understand UNC’s interest. But check out Tyson’s heat map, per CBB Analytics, and how he fits at UNC makes even more sense:
Tyson hit 53.5 percent of his corner 3s last season, making him an ideal fit in UNC’s secondary break offense. It’s a similar reasoning to why UNC signed Cormac Ryan last offseason. Tyson has also shown the potential to drive when defenses close too quickly, and even some ballhandling flashes in pick-and-roll scenarios. Defensively, Tyson will have to tighten some things up — he’s not awesome navigating screens at times — but he would be an ideal sharpshooting four, the latest such portal addition for Hubert Davis and his staff.
(Top photo of RJ Davis: Greg Fiume / Getty Images)