They’re just numbers. Or are they?
Is 500 homers just a number? Is 3,000 hits just a number? Is 300 wins just a number?
If you’re someone who appreciates the beautiful history of baseball, try thinking of it this way. Try closing your eyes and reciting those numbers to yourself, slowly enough to let them sink in. Then tell me what you think about.
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When you think of 500 home runs, do you only see that round number 500 flashing across your screen? Or do you think of Miguel Cabrera … or Ted Williams … or Mike Schmidt?
When you think of 3,000 hits, do you think of those four digits on a page? Or do you think of Albert Pujols … or Derek Jeter … or Tony Gwynn?
And what about 300 wins? Even if you’re in that trendy 21st-century “kill the win” club, tell me that number, 300, doesn’t make you reflect on the greatness of Greg Maddux … or Randy Johnson … or Nolan Ryan.
So of course they’re just numbers — technically speaking. But there is magic in those numbers. There are memories in those numbers. There is so much history in those numbers. Even the players chasing them fully understand it.
“I think any time you think about baseball, you think about 300 wins,” said the Phillies’ Bryce Harper, currently sitting at 306 homers and 1,513 hits, at age 31. “You think about 3,000 (strikeouts). You think about 500 homers and 3,000 hits. Those are kind of the epitome of big numbers in baseball, right?”
Right. But here’s why that’s a topic in 2024 — because we find ourselves in a place few living baseball fans have ever been. Let me pose the question that will explain everything:
How many active players are currently walking around Planet Baseball with 500 homers … or 3,000 hits … or 300 wins?
The answer: Not one!
When Miguel Cabrera gathered up one final groundball last Oct. 1, stepped on first base and exited the stage, he left this sport without a single 3,000-hit or 500-homer man anywhere in sight.
And you would have to go back to 2009, when Randy Johnson decided it was time to stop snapping off killer sliders and start snapping off cool photos, to find the last time baseball had a 300-game winner.
So can that really mean we’re suddenly surrounded by none of the above — all at the same time? It does. And not a single human now playing baseball has ever lived in a world where that was true.
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The last time there was no one at 500/3,000/300 for an entire season? That was nearly a half-century ago, in 1977. It took Pete Rose’s 3,000th hit, a few weeks into the 1978 season, to end that drought.
But before that? Whew. You would have to travel way back to the years following World War 2, after so many stars had gone off to war and put their pursuit of baseball history on hold.
The drought back then lasted a full decade, from Opening Day 1948 until Stan Musial joined the 3,000-Hit Club on May 13, 1958. That’s the most years this sport has gone with a void in the 500/3,000/300 milestone super-trifecta since early in the 19th century, the beginning of baseball time. (Hat tip to @NotGaetti on X.)
But are we about to venture into a similar void? Consider the active leaders in those three categories:
Home runs: Giancarlo Stanton, 402.
Hits: Joey Votto, 2,135.
Wins: Justin Verlander, 257.
So how many years are we looking at before this drought ends? Never have 98 homers, 865 hits and 43 wins seemed like such massive mountains to climb. So let’s reflect on this odd moment in baseball time, on what it tells us, on what those numbers embody and on the chances of an active player crossing any of those magic, round-number thresholds anytime soon.
The meaning of Miggy
In those final seasons of Miguel Cabrera’s career, did we appreciate what we were watching?
He reached 500 homers on Aug. 22, 2021. He ascended to the summit of Mount 3,000 on April 23, 2022. He would finish his career with 511 homers and 3,174 hits. Only three other men ever reached both of those plateaus: Henry Aaron, Willie Mays and Albert Pujols.
At Comerica Park in Detroit, Miggy’s numbers hung on the outfield wall for three years, so they were impossible to miss. And that matters — because they were a reminder of much more than merely the arithmetic.
They were a reminder that we were watching a walking history museum. And the Tigers made sure to deliver that message to every young player on their roster.
“The value of that, to his teammates, was immense,” said their manager, A.J. Hinch, “because we used Miggy’s ascent up those charts as history lessons for them to understand. When you’re saying he’s one of five, he’s one of three, he’s one of seven ever to play, that resonates with today’s player. So that, in itself, was awesome for our guys to see.”
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Hinch knew there were people on the outside who looked at the 40-year-old version of Cabrera and used words like “overpaid” to describe him. But as Miggy smiled his way through his final season, savoring every trip to the plate and every mile of his orbit around the baseball earth, his team experienced something powerful — and unexpected.
“You couldn’t even fathom how many records that guy broke,” said 27-year-old Tigers utilityman Matt Vierling. “Or how many hits he had. Or doubles. Or RBIs. It was like a milestone every other week. It made me think: This guy’s got how many doubles? I’ve got like 10 this year. … So being part of that was something really special, and something I don’t think I’ll ever be able to experience again.”
On the Tigers’ final trip to Kansas City, the Royals provided yet another reminder of the human highlight reel Cabrera had become. Kansas City was the place, in 2012, where he completed baseball’s first Triple Crown since 1967. So guess what video played on the scoreboard when Miggy walked toward home plate as the Royals honored him last July?
Jim Leyland, now bound for the Hall of Fame himself, was Cabrera’s manager the year he won that Triple Crown. Leyland, not surprisingly by his sentimental standards, got emotional this spring merely reminiscing about that season. But what still makes it meaningful for him, 12 years later, is the powerful imprint that feat left on every Tiger on that team.
“I think it’s going to have an impact on those guys for the rest of their life,” Leyland said, “because they’re going to be able to say: ‘I was on the team with Miguel Cabrera when he won the Triple Crown.’ They’ll be telling that story to their grandkids forever.”
So why was there a celebration of Miguel Cabrera in every city he visited last year? That’s why. It wasn’t just goodbye. It was thank you — and thanks for the memories. So no wonder Hinch made it a rule that “we had our team down on the field for every ceremony.” He wanted every player to reflect, for a few minutes, on what Cabrera’s numbers represented.
“I think (they gained) an understanding, or an appreciation, of the accomplishment,” Hinch said. “But it’s also a picture. So many players, so many people, have played this game. So many people have been in the big leagues. We had one that was at or near the top of a lot of lists. … So it was literally a walk through the history of the game every day.”
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Is this a blip or a trend?
How did we get here? That’s always a question worth asking. And how do we get out of here? Be sure to ask that one, too.
Maybe this is just a temporary intermission in the Milestone Show. But doesn’t it feel like more than that?
In the new (and, sadly, final) edition of the “Bill James Handbook,” the godfather of analytics writes all about this topic — and the dwindling number of players with even a chance to achieve what he calls “The Standards of Excellence.”
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“Baseball in the last 10 years has begun to drift away from its historic norms, in a few unprecedented ways,” James wrote. “This has consequences.”
Has baseball changed more in the last 10 years than it had in the previous 100 years? I’d argue yes. Is this 500/3,000/300 milestone void a “consequence” of that change? In many ways, of course.
“Change is the one constant, and change is good,” James wrote. “Until there is too damn much of it and you no longer recognize the things that you used to love.”
I don’t know about you. But when the voice wondering if change is good is Bill James, I start getting worried. So let’s dive deeper into why the absence of Milestone Men seems to be more than merely one of those fluky times that come along in life.
It’s hard to hit! You can’t get 3,000 hits if it’s semi-impossible to get any hits. And before baseball restricted The Shift last year, league-wide batting averages had plummeted to their lowest rate (.243) since 1968. As recently as 2000, league average was still .270. So this sport was literally making over 5,000 hits a year disappear. Yes, 5,000.
Everybody throws 100! The pitches that come exploding out of pitchers’ hands these days are so hard and ridiculous, it’s amazing anyone ever gets a hit. The average fastball velocity last season (94.1 mph, according to Statcast) was the hardest ever recorded. But the percentage of pitches that were fastballs (32.3 percent) has never been lower. So yikes, it’s tough to hit.
The information age is raging! Not to mention that every pitcher goes to the mound armed with more intel on every hitter’s weaknesses than at any point in history. And defenses are happy to use that data and drop a dude with a glove in the exact spot that every hitter is most likely to hit the ball. So hey, that’s fun.
Try on your lab coats! And as if all that wasn’t enough to torment hitters, have you seen any videos of those modern pitching labs? Nearly every team has one now. Some college programs have even trendier versions. And is there a Driveline — or Driveline imitator — on every corner now, or does it just seem like it? Those labs break down biomechanics, spot delivery flaws, design pitch shapes and hone the art of tunneling until hitters are standing at the plate, watching baseballs move in ways they’ve never moved before. Good times.
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It’s harder to take those Flintstones vitamins! Hmmm. For some reason, there was a dramatic upswing in the membership of the 500-Homer Club in recent years. I wonder why that was. From 1876, through the 1980s — that’s 115 seasons — just 14 men joined that club. Then, from 1996 through 2021 — that’s 26 seasons — 15 men joined the club. Gee, what could have happened? Hey, let’s ask Joey Votto: “For about 15 to 20 years or so,” Votto said, “there was an era. I won’t say it specifically, but there was an era. And you know, it is what it is.”
We made starting pitchers irrelevant! So that sums up the issues for hitters stalking 3,000 hits and 500 homers. Meanwhile, on the pitching side, it’s hard to win 300 games if the manager doesn’t leave his starter in long enough to win one game. That’s another trend that’s taking its toll.
Last season, only 45 pitchers in the majors — that’s 1.5 per team — threw enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. Ten years ago, it was 89 — that’s three per team.
The average start now lasts 15 outs. If you get only 14 outs, the rules say the starter can’t “win” that game. So is it safe to say that if Justin Verlander doesn’t reach 300 wins, nobody ever will? It’s seeming safer every day.
Ah, but what are we really missing?
So what’s the big deal? Why should you even care? Sports change. Life changes. Records come. Records go. That’s part of baseball. It always has been. Why should anyone shed a tear just because Earth has spun in a way that the magic numbers of yesteryear don’t seem so magical anymore?
Excellent questions! Thanks for asking them. You’re not all wrong. Change is cool. Change is necessary. Change is inevitable. But as Bill James put it … there are consequences.
And what are those consequences? You might want to re-read the beginning of this column. In other words, these are more than just numbers.
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So 500 homers don’t merely represent a line on the stat sheet. They connect the dots of history — from Miguel Cabrera to Ken Griffey Jr., from Henry Aaron to Babe freaking Ruth.
“I was there for Pujols’ 400th and 500th,” Bryce Harper said, “because he hit both of them against (the Nationals). It was incredible, really, to see that. I mean, every night that Pujols played, you had a chance to see history. I’ll never forget it. Just incredible.”
But now let’s think about why it was so incredible, why Harper remembers Pujols’ 500th (right down to the otherwise anonymous pitcher who gave it up, Taylor Jordan) 10 years later. What is it about That Number, about 500, that delivers all those goosebumps — and then preserves them in a time capsule burrowed deep inside us?
It’s baseball’s secret sauce. It’s that thing that literally separates baseball from every other sport — the powerful meaning of its big round numbers, the ability of ordinary fans to recite the names of the men who have achieved them and the way they resonate through time.
It’s how we can mention Greg Maddux in the same sentence with Walter Johnson. Or how we can drop Derek Jeter’s name in the same sentence as Stan Musial — or drop Jim Thome into the same sentence as Jimmie Foxx.
So that emotion that washes over us when someone’s 500th homer disappears into the crowd isn’t simply along for the ride on that particular home run ball. It’s riding a wave of history, a ride that began the day the major leagues started rolling out the baseballs — nearly 150 years ago.
“Absolutely. It’s the whole picture,” Jim Leyland said. “It’s not the one base hit that broke ‘the record.’ It’s everything that built up to it.”
“When I think about the great players,” said Joey Votto, “when I think about Hank and Willie, when I think about (Ted) Williams and Joe DiMaggio — I know DiMaggio didn’t have any big (round) numbers, but he had 56 (his 56-game hitting streak). When I think about them, they’re all tied to a connection with the baseball community, a connection with the national pastime. And with that longevity came a big number — 3,000 … 500 … 600.”
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So as we look at that void, we don’t just see it. We feel it. And how can we not wonder what would have to happen for this sport to climb out of it — especially at a time when more and more 30-something players are pushed out of the game?
“I see it as a responsibility for those that are close to keep going and keep trying,” A.J. Hinch said. “We have a few people that have a chance to move up those lists, and it’s worth it — not only for yourself and your accomplishments, but for the whole game.
“The void is, we need to find new ways to keep our best players in the games, our most accomplished players. Part of that is going to be on the players, to be good. But also, having experienced it with Miggy, I hope that Manny (Machado), Jose (Altuve), Bryce, (Juan) Soto — the guys that are accomplishing so much at a young age — stay healthy and stay hungry.”
Who has a shot?
So let’s look at that group. Who has a realistic chance to reach those increasingly unreachable stars? It’s easy to toss out the names. It’s so much harder to know what the future holds.
Once upon a time, Bill James built a Career Assessment Tool also known as The Favorite Toy. We’ll refer to that as we go along. But beware! There are always variations. The Favorite Toy doesn’t know that Harper is determined to play into his mid-40s. It doesn’t know that Justin Verlander has talked about doing whatever it takes to be the last 300-game winner in history.
So we’re partly projecting, but also partly guessing. We know everyone is wired differently. But that’s what makes this fun. OK, let’s go.
Who could hit 500?
Of all of these magic numbers, 500 homers seems the most attainable. So let’s review that field — starting with Harper, because he had so many thoughts on this topic.
Bryce Harper (Bill James projection: 19 percent) — On the day he hit No. 300 last season, Harper hinted that he had 500 on his mind. But he was reluctant to say that out loud this spring, especially coming off two years in which injuries cost him nearly 100 games.
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“On a personal level, I don’t really think about that stuff day to day,” he said. “I mean, when you’re just hitting 300, I’m so far away from 500. … So I don’t really think about it too much as I play. I think if you think about it, it’s not going to happen.”
James’ projection tool is too generic to know that Harper is signed for eight more years and aspires to go five years beyond that. It also doesn’t know it was a series of flukish injuries that depressed his totals over the past two years — or that his pace after he got healthy last year would equate to nearly a 50-homer season over six months.
So he’s projected to hit “only” 440. But to reach 500, he would simply have to average a tick over 24 homers a year for the rest of his contract. So I’ll take the “over.”
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Giancarlo Stanton (Bill James projection: 79 percent) — The Career Assessment tool doesn’t know anything about Stanton except his age (33), career total (402) and three most recent seasons. So it projects him to finish with 528. While a bunch of exasperated Yankees fans might find that shocking, have you seen what happens when this behemoth squares one up?
“He’s a threat every single at-bat if he stays healthy,” Hinch said.
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Aaron Judge (Bill James projection: 53 percent) — Judge sits at 257 homers. He turns 32 in April. He’s a humongous human being. He’s about to take on the physical toll of being the Yankees’ center fielder. So 50-50 seems like the perfect assessment of his chances.
After all, he’s a 50-homer season waiting to happen. So his Career Assessment Tool projection is for 508, but it also predicts that he has only five and a half healthy seasons remaining. So he would have to average more than 40 a year — and do it into his late 30s.
How feasible is that? You’ve got me. But a Judge pursuit of 500 would be mesmerizing. I hope it happens!
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Manny Machado (Bill James projection: 39 percent) — Who else out there is aware that Machado has more career home runs (313) than Harper, and they’re the same age? Maybe that explains why the projection tool sees Machado finishing at 479 homers. But he too has eight seasons left on his contract, giving him a real chance at 500 if he remains as durable as he has been so far. More on his chances at 3,000 hits shortly.
Juan Soto (Bill James projection: 33 percent) — The Career Assessment Tool sees Soto hitting 442 homers. Considering he’s already at 160 through age 24, I thought that sounded low. Of course, given his style of hitting, Soto is a better bet to break Rickey Henderson’s career walks record (2,558) than he is to reach any round number that involves hits or homers. Still, anything is possible with this guy.
Mike Trout (Bill James projection: 49 percent) — Trout is trending in all the wrong directions. But the Career Assessment Tool has him finishing at 498 homers — so 49 percent seems shockingly low, for all sorts of reasons. Not the least of those is … he’s Mike Trout.
Who could reach 3,000?
I asked Joey Votto this spring if he could name the active leader in hits now that Miguel Cabrera has retired. To a guy whose brain works like Votto’s, that question wouldn’t quite fit the definition of “a stumper.”
“Of course,” he replied. “That would be me.”
Correct! So let’s start the 3,000-hit conversation with that guy.
Joey Votto (Bill James projection: 0 percent) — He’s 40 years old. He has no clear path to regular playing time in Toronto. There is no guarantee he will ever make it back to the big leagues at all. But I included him because he feels like a perfect illustration of how hard it is to reach these magic numbers, even for a guy who has rolled up a Hall of Fame-type stat line for 17 years.
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Votto, however, didn’t see it quite that purely. He agreed that it proves “it’s incredibly hard,” but he also understands “I’m not that type of hitter.” True. Because of all his walks, he has reached base 3,581 times — just not because he spews 200 hits a year. In fact, he has reached base only 210 fewer times than Ichiro, despite 900 fewer hits!
Freddie Freeman (Bill James projection: 53 percent) — If Votto doesn’t make the Blue Jays to start the season (as expected), Freeman would become the active leader (with 2,115, at age 34). And who would bet against him reaching 3,000? Not even the projection tool, which sees him finishing with 3,023.
“I think Freddie is one of the most undervalued, best first basemen I’ve ever seen,” Harper said. “And I think he’s one of the best hitters in at least the last 15 years.”
Jose Altuve (Bill James projection: 14 percent) — I found this projection surprisingly low, too. Altuve is at 2,047 hits, through his age-33 season. And other than the 2020 shortened season, he has never had a bad year. If he averages 150 hits for the next six seasons, he’d have 3,000 in his sights. But the Career Assessment Tool doesn’t even see him reaching 2,700 hits. Hinch, who managed him in Houston, is thinking bigger thoughts.
“He’s got such a gift, and such great bat-to-ball skills, that he finds ways to get a ton of hits,” Hinch said. “And he also does damage (as a power threat). So he has a great chance, I think.”
Machado (Bill James projection: 17 percent) — Back in Manny World, Machado already has cleared 1,700 hits, and he’s only 31. But his road to 3,000 is still rocky. He would have to average 158 hits a year over the remaining eight seasons of his contract. And it’s hard not to notice that he has reached 158 only once since he was 25. The projection is that he won’t even get to 2,600. I think there’s more there.
Who could win 300?
Well, this won’t take long. The Career Assessment Tool projects every active starter at … 0 percent. And that includes this guy …
Justin Verlander (Bill James projection: 0%) — Anyone who knows Verlander would have a hard time telling him he has no shot. But he’s 41, battling shoulder issues and in the last year of his contract. So the Career Assessment Tool sees 275 as his landing point.
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Is it realistic to think he can average 15 wins a season for the next three years — at age 41, 42 and 43? Before you answer, you might want to consider that only one right-handed non-knuckleballer has won 15 or more in a season, at 43 or older, in the past 90 years … and it’s Bartolo Colon (for the 2016 Mets). But have no doubt Verlander is convinced he can be the second.
“I’m sure he’ll be motivated (to do it),” said Hinch, who managed Verlander in Houston. “But that’s hard, especially with the way that pitching is being utilized for an entire generation.”
And that’s the problem. The Win is so endangered that if Verlander can’t figure out how to get to 300, how could anyone in the next generation — or the generations after that?
What about Gerrit Cole, you ask? He’s still 155 away and facing elbow questions — with his 34th birthday approaching in September.
Max Scherzer? Still 86 away — and he turns 40 in July. Clayton Kershaw? Still 90 away — but he’s 36. And physically, how much more tread do those two surefire Hall of Famers have left on their tires?
Then what about the under-30 crowd? Hoo boy. You don’t want to know.
Most wins by a pitcher who hasn’t turned 30 yet — 83, by José Berríos
Most wins by a pitcher who will be in his 20s all season — 60, by Shane Bieber (turns 29 in May)
Most wins by a pitcher 25 or younger — just 32, by Spencer Strider (age 25)
Greg Maddux had 75 wins at Strider’s age, 150 at Bieber’s age and 333 at Verlander’s age. Get the picture?
And is it possible the journey to 3,000 hits is just as precarious? Whether we consider Votto or Freeman to be the active hits leader, the last time the active leader was this far away from 3,000 was … 1952 (when Stan Musial was at 2,023). And before that, you’d have to go back to … 1888 (when Cap Anson had 2,121).
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So just by default, 500 homers emerges as the most attainable. But can Stanton stay on the field enough to average 33 home runs a year for the next three seasons? How many 30-homer seasons does Trout have left in him?
How Ruthian can Judge be as he cruises toward his mid-30s? How healthy will Harper remain, with that furious Tiger Woods swing? And then there’s Mookie Betts, who is too darned well-rounded, apparently, for his own good. (Mookie’s Bill James projections: 35 percent at 500 homers, only 14 percent at 3,000 hits.)
So after digesting all that, do we have a better appreciation of Miguel Cabrera yet?
“I learned, when I came here, exactly how much injury Miggy played through,” Hinch said, “exactly how much he put into being on the field every day, what the process is. It’s not an easy journey. Time wins every time. Right? It’s going to hit everybody, so everything that you do matters. You need a lot of things on your side to get to those kinds of accomplishments.”
That doesn’t mean they’re impossible. But here’s what it does mean, says Votto: It just takes patience — so our only option is to enjoy the ride in other ways.
“I can say that the game will be in outstanding hands with Mike Trout and Bryce Harper and Mookie Betts,” Votto said. “I think, as they age, they’re going to be amazing for the game. Those are our DiMaggio, our Williams, our Mickey Mantle, our (Roberto) Clemente right now. We’re just going to have to give it a little bit of time, because (an older) generation just left.”
So let’s raise a glass to those magic numbers we’ve grown up with — 500 homers … 3,000 hits … 300 wins — because they put all of this in such perfect perspective. They’re there to help us appreciate the greatness of the generation that just moved on. They’ll be hanging above the heads of that next generation, as they reach for their place in history.
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Who knows how many years it will take to fill this void. Will it be five? Will it be 10? Will it be 20? Could this even be forever? We can’t possibly say who will fill that void or when. But one thing we can safely say is that players will always chase the greatest milestones in the history of their sport. And you know why?
Because they’re not just numbers. They’re what makes baseball special.
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(Top image: John Bradford / The Athletic. Photos: Daniel Shirey, Tim Nwachukwu, Chris Coduto / Getty Images)