North Carolina vs. Michigan State expert picks: Spread, odds, projections for NCAA Tournament second-round game

Two of the most storied programs in college basketball square off in what should be one of the more exciting games in the Round of 32. Both North Carolina and Michigan State cruised to opening-round wins, setting the stage for a clash of teams both ranked in the top 16 in KenPom. This West Regional game is not your typical 1-seed vs. 9-seed matchup, with the Tar Heels only slight favorites against a Spartans team that, despite its 20-14 record, is rounding into form in March in typical Tom Izzo fashion.

North Carolina’s point total will be the key number to watch for. If Michigan State is going to compete, it’ll need to use its sixth-ranked defense to muddy up the game against a Tar Heels team ranked 20th in the country in points per game. The Spartans are 3-10 this season when allowing 70 or more points (compared to 17-4 when holding opponents under that 70-point mark). The Tar Heels don’t live on offense alone (they’re seventh in KenPom in defensive efficiency), but it’s worth noting that five of their seven losses occurred when they scored fewer than 80 points.

There’s no substitute for experience, and both these squads have plenty of it. The Tar Heels have the sixth-most Division I experience on their roster, spearheaded by Armando Bacot and RJ Davis, both of whom got Final Four experience during North Carolina’s run to the national title game in 2022. Michigan State counters with a senior-led backcourt of Tyson Walker and AJ Hoggard, giving the Spartans the 14th-highest minutes continuity in the country. In the one-and-done era, both teams have savvy veterans who have been on this stage before.

The Tar Heels are the better team on paper and have a defense that can make up for any lulls on offense. Michigan State doesn’t have that luxury, and we’ll find out soon if the Spartans’ 10-for-23 performance from deep in a win over Mississippi State was the start of a hot streak or an outlier for a team that averaged just 6.2 made triples per game in the regular season (266th in the country). Still, Izzo has 56 career NCAA Tournament wins and is one year removed from taking a seventh-seeded group to the Sweet 16. Bet against him at your own risk.