Michigan State vs. Mississippi State expert picks: Spread, odds, projections for NCAA Tournament first-round game

The first of the first-round March Madness games tips off on Thursday at 12:15 p.m. ET, with No. 9 Michigan State vs. No. 8 Mississippi State. Your brackets will lock right around the same time that the Spartans and Bulldogs hit the court for a battle through to the round of 32.

As you might expect for one of the 8/9 seed games, our experts are split on who will claim a win here. So are oddsmakers.

To help you make your picks, we’re breaking down the matchup with profiles for each team, plus odds and expert picks. Our game previews are a collaborative effort between The Athletic staff, The Field of 68 and Brad Evans’ The Gaming Juice.

Michigan State breakdown

Strengths: For all of its flaws, Tom Izzo’s No. 9-seed Michigan State has flashes of dominance. Those flashes usually begin in the fastbreak, where the Spartans average 14.3 points per game, the 22nd-best mark in the nation. A.J. Hoggard, Jaden Akins and Tre Holloman are a trio of guards who can create good looks, so long as they take them, while veteran Malik Hall finished the regular season with one of his strongest stretches. The defense holds opponents to 65.9 points per game, yet Michigan State too often needs leading scorer Tyson Walker to put the game away.

Weaknesses: It’s hard to trust this Michigan State team. The Spartans can’t get over shooting troubles and, despite plenty of good looks, average 73.5 points per game (10th in the Big Ten). Their 46.3 percent field goal mark ranks 80th nationally, while their 35.9 mark from 3-point range ranks just outside the top 60. Ball security is another issue, and the Spartans must stay out of foul trouble.

Outlook: Michigan State enters the NCAA Tournament on the back of a gritty loss to Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals — the second time in March the Spartans played the Boilermakers to the end. Resume-building wins against Baylor, Illinois and a pesky Indiana State team show how the pieces can come together with aggressive rebounding and defense. But the X-factor will be whether Michigan State can get more of its shots to go through.

—Jayna Bardahl

Mississippi State breakdown

In short, when you’ve got a guard and a big like the Bulldogs have, you’ve got a chance.

Strengths: The Bulldogs defend at a high level (top 25 in the nation in defensive efficiency), and they have length and depth. Offensively, this team has solid numbers and is middling in terms of tempo. It all revolves around senior big man Tolu Smith — a powerful 6-foot-11, 245-pound player who demands double teams — and freshman sensation Josh Hubbard. He’s only 5-foot-10, but he’s a solid 190 pounds and a shooter with limitless range and no fear. When he’s chased off the 3-point line, he goes for crafty mid-range shots. Those two players drive everything.

Weaknesses: If an opponent has a big man with the size and quickness to wall off Smith and make him shoot over the top, the Bulldogs can get into a rut. Mississippi State shoots poorly from long range as a team, and while supporting players such as Cameron Matthews, Dashawn Davis and D.J. Jeffries can score, the only consistent producers are Smith and Hubbard. Too many non-shooters sometimes take jump shots, and the Bulldogs can be faulty at the foul line as they only make 67 percent as a team.

Outlook: Under coach Chris Jans, No. 8 Mississippi State should make a regular appearance in the NCAA Tournament — after the program failed to earn bids in 12 of the 13 seasons before he arrived. This team is good enough to open with a victory and earn a shot at one of the tournament’s big boys. Smith and Hubbard average 33 points a game combined, and if they can push that to the 40-45 range with smart offensive play from teammates, they can make things interesting against anyone.

—Joe Rexrode