State of the Phillies farm system: Assessing the hitters, as organizational philosophies shift

About 70 players convened this week at the Carpenter Complex in Clearwater, Fla., for the Phillies’ annual instructional league program catered to some of the youngest talent in the organization. They were greeted by some 20 coaches and officials, none of whom were hitting instructors. The Phillies began this three-week-long camp without a farm director nor with a hitting infrastructure in place.

“There are some things offensively in the minor leagues that we’d like to change moving forward,” Phillies general manager Matt Klentak said earlier this week. He added: “It’s important at any level of instruction to stay current with what’s happening and with the developments in baseball.”

So the position-player development program is at something of a crossroads. For the early part of this decade, the Phillies targeted high-ceiling athletes in their draft room. They pulled talents like Roman Quinn and Aaron Altherr and J.P. Crawford. They missed on many, many more. The draft room is heavier on analytics now, and it shows in the club’s more recent and “safer” top picks.

Those shifting philosophies, along with a hitting program stuck in limbo following the dismissal of four instructors, have generated a group of position players that lacks projectable talent. The Athletic surveyed a dozen evaluators — both inside and outside the Phillies organization — for a consensus assessment of the club’s minor-league talent. What follows is an amalgamation of their opinions, ending today with the club’s hitters.

The Phillies have graduated quite a few players — Rhys Hoskins, Jorge Alfaro, Nick Williams, Scott Kingery and J.P. Crawford — to the majors. That has diminished the pool. But evaluators saw a concerning profile emerge across the system. It is, for the most part, unathletic hitters who lack strength. There are few prospects who are above-average runners. Most project as utility types in the majors. Some have potential as average regulars, but that is a best-case scenario for those players.

It is a stark contrast to the club’s considerable pitching depth.

“You can’t say it’s the same,” Phillies assistant general manager Bryan Minniti said. “It’s just not the same. But, look, drafting hitters is hard. College or high school, it doesn’t matter. International, finding hitters is hard. Pitching is almost more of a volume game than anything else. But it’s hard to find hitters. So we’re going to keep giving guys a shot. We’ll keep drafting and signing them. We’ll keep signing international guys who can hit. We’ll keep working with him. The attrition rate on hitters is dramatic. But we’ll keep trying.”

The high-pick outfielders

Every assessment of the Phillies’ system starts with 1-1, Mickey Moniak. And few players generate a difference of opinion like Moniak does. His first half at High-A Clearwater was horrendous and his second half was illuminating. He tried to hit the ball in the air more. He drew five walks in his first 240 plate appearances and 17 walks in his final 225 plate appearances. He slugged .307 before July 1 and .470 after July 1.

Minniti would not detail whatever adjustments were applied.

“We’re excited for the progress he made,” Minniti said. “We’re looking forward to seeing what happens next year. He obviously gets a lot of attention for a lot of reasons. He’s a very talented kid. We’re happy to see the second half he put together. It was fantastic.”

Those who saw Moniak both at the beginning of the season and the end did not see noticeable mechanical changes at the plate. But he looked more comfortable. “He wasn’t chasing,” a National League scout said. “I chalked it up more to a confidence thing.” The Phillies had numerous team officials impress on Moniak that the pressure of being a No. 1 overall pick was a burden best not carried.

Still, there are questions about his approach and ceiling. The Phillies wanted Moniak to lift the ball, but he lacks the current strength to drive it. He is just 20 years old. The club put him through their strength program last offseason with the hopes he’d gain some more muscle and retain strength. That, again, is the priority this winter.

The debate centers around projections for Moniak, and they range from an up-and-down extra outfielder to a corner outfielder with good bat-to-ball skills. The Phillies were aggressive in pushing Moniak to the Florida State League, but No. 1 picks are designed to be pushed. He hit .270/.304/.383 for the season. He could repeat Clearwater to start 2019.

“You still have to buy into the swing,” an American League scout said. “He has tools. Sometimes we just have to be patient.”

Adam Haseley, the club’s top pick in the 2017 amateur draft, is more advanced. He finished strong at Double-A Reading. He’s on the big-league radar for some point in 2019, although he’s a tough profile for a corner outfield spot. Haseley is an average runner and an average defender with lingering questions about his power potential. “He’ll have to hit 15-20 homers,” one NL evaluator said. “I’m just not sure that power exists in his frame.” An AL scout disagreed, saying Haseley could hit 15 homers in Philadelphia.

The University of Virginia product makes contact and uses the opposite field. Haseley, 22, hit .305/.361/.433 in 513 plate appearances. Six of his 11 home runs came in Double A.

“Look, he hit at both levels,” Minniti said. “I mean, he’s a year-and-change removed from the ACC and he’s on pace to be in Triple A at some point next year. So, yeah, we can’t ask for much more there.”

The Phillies picked Haseley eighth overall. That’s a pick that carries more expectations than an average, everyday player. But, given the lack of that kind of talent in the system, Haseley ranks near the top.

They used the 10th-overall pick in 2015 on Cornelius Randolph, a less-developed prep player who spent the entire 2018 season at Double-A Reading. He posted the league’s third-lowest slugging percentage (.322) among qualified hitters. Evaluators did not see power potential even in batting practice. His fly-ball rate dipped despite the Phillies’ attempts to have him hit the ball in the air more. Outside the organization, he is not seen as a prospect.

“We view him as a prospect,” Minniti said. “Particularly, his last month was very good. He’s athletic. He can swing the bat. We still have high hopes.”

The teenager’s introduction

No one made a first impression like the one Luis Garcia did this summer. The 17-year-old Dominican shortstop signed for $2.5 million — one of the club’s largest-ever international bonuses — and made his professional debut in the Gulf Coast League. He hit .369/.433/.488 in 187 plate appearances — 184 of which were against pitchers older than him.

He will ascend prospect lists this winter. Garcia has a chance to play at Low-A Lakewood in 2019 as an 18-year-old.

“He is a talented kid offensively and defensively,” Minniti said. “He had an enormous year offensively in the GCL. You can definitely push a guy like that. I don’t know how far. He’s a very skilled kid. He has done everything you can ask for and then some down there.”

Garcia showed advanced feel for his age at shortstop. He has an accurate arm with good hands. He flashed some pop, which is notable for a 5-foot-11, 170-pound teenager. “He can really handle the bat,” an AL scout said. “Controls the zone. Quick bat. Gap power. He did everything you like.”

The emerging catchers

Rodolfo Duran mashed seven homers in June for Low-A Lakewood, and it was quite an accomplishment because he did not homer at all last season and entered 2018 as a diminutive catcher known for his defensive skills. Then he hit six more homers in August and finished with a total of 18 along with an .800 OPS in the South Atlantic League as a 20-year-old.

Duran, listed at 5-foot-9, was a benefit of both the organization’s strength program last season and a swing change that focused on putting the ball in the air more. “He plays with a lot of energy,” an AL scout said. “He’s just small so you don’t know if he’ll be able to handle a full season. Not many catchers of that stature are full-time guys.” Duran threw out 42 percent of would-be stealers, which led the league. His 18 passed balls also led the league.

He’s someone to watch.

The Phillies were proud of their emerging depth at catcher, a position that is the weakest across the majors. But most of the promising catchers are young, either in their first or second professional seasons, and difficult to project. There was praise from evaluators for Logan O’Hoppe, a 23rd-round pick in last June’s draft from a Long Island high school. The 18-year-old hit for power and reached base well in the Gulf Coast League. Abrahan Gutierrez, who signed with the Phillies for $550,000 after he was declared a free agent as a result of the Atlanta Braves’ international shenanigans, repeated the GCL and performed well. He’s 18.

Rafael Marchan, 19, hit for average but not power at rookie ball in Williamsport. He is an athletic catcher with advanced feel. Juan Aparicio, 18, is another who impressed during his first stateside appearances this summer despite questions about whether he can stick behind the plate. He is a bat-first backstop.

“Their strength right now is backup catchers who have a chance to play every day if things go right,” an NL scout said.

The Phillies face something of a logjam in the lower minors and could push catchers to more advanced levels in 2019 to ensure playing time for all of them.

“We had three, four, five guys off those GCL teams who really need a chance to get out of there,” Minniti said. “So it’s going to be a little tricky. Catching is a big part of that. We’re fired up. Every level you went to this year, every day you saw someone catch who had an interesting set of tools and are interesting kids.”

The big-bonus Dominican outfielder

Some within the organization viewed Jhailyn Ortiz, the 19-year-old outfielder, as the hitting prospect with the highest ceiling before 2018 began. He signed for $4 million and last season displayed a rare rookie-ball combination of power and discipline. The Phillies tested him with a full season in Lakewood and the results were uneven. He hit .225/.297/.375 in 454 plate appearances.

Ortiz is a big-bodied right fielder who has deceptive athleticism. He could stick in right field with the proper conditioning. But there were growing pains at the plate. Ortiz wore glasses this season. His pitch recognition — specifically the identification of breaking balls — became an issue. “It varies,” an AL scout said. “Sometimes he’ll recognize pitches. Other times he won’t.” His power is real and that will be his ticket, so long as he can reduce the swing-and-miss tendencies.

The notables

Alec Bohm, 22, went third in the 2018 draft and a foot injury limited him to 158 plate appearances. It’s an incomplete grade. Drafted for his power, Bohm failed to homer in his first professional season.  Evaluators have doubts about his chances of sticking at third base and it will require a strong work ethic to stay there.

Two infielders at Lakewood — Nick Maton and Jake Scheiner — drew some interest. Maton, 21, was a seventh-round pick who skipped college to sign with the Phillies. He has smooth actions at shortstop with sharp instincts. He could push the current consensus opinion of a future utility player with a strong 2019. Scheiner, 23, played three different positions and posted an .842 OPS. He hit for some power but doesn’t have an above-average skill. The Phillies will try him at catcher in instructional league.

Dylan Cozens has one more option year, and the Phillies will see his development through for as long as possible. His strikeouts plateaued and his walk rate rose. His power played better in the International League. “But, for the most part, same thing,” an AL scout said. “Unfortunately, I think he’s his own worst enemy.”

Zach Green, 24, stayed healthy for the first time in his pro career and reached Triple A after a breakout performance in Double A. He profiles as an extra bat. So does Mitch Walding, who posted the second-highest walk rate (15.5 percent) in the International League. His isolated power (.209) ranked third. It will be interesting to see if Walding sticks on the 40-man roster this winter.

Infielder Cole Stobbe, who signed above slot for $1.1 million as a third-round pick in 2016, played in just 12 games. A series of nagging hamstring injuries derailed the 21-year-old’s season.

“He probably tried to come back a little too soon,” Minniti said. “He wanted to play. He had a nice spring, and we were all kind of excited. It’s a shame.”

The positionless hitter

What is Austin Listi? “That’s a great question,” Minniti said. It’s a question the Phillies were forced to consider this season as Listi mashed Florida State League pitching then finished well in the Eastern League — but all along without a viable position in the field.

The Phillies honored him with their Paul Owens Award as the best hitter in the system. Listi, 24, hit .312/.412/.502 in 507 plate appearances.

“We’ll see,” Minniti said. “He’s the kind of guy who will have every opportunity to get here. If he keeps hitting, at some point, you have to bring him. I don’t know when that is. Maybe it doesn’t happen. But he can really swing the bat. He goes up there with intent.

“Is he an up-down guy? Is he a platoon guy? I don’t know. His bat will dictate where he goes.”

Listi’s performance conjured a familiar comparison from evaluators: Darin Ruf. One scout called Listi “a roster nightmare.” Another said, “He can hit. I just don’t know where you’re playing this guy.” There was a Steve Pearce comp. The Phillies tried Listi at first base, third base, left field and right field. He’ll play in the outfield during the Arizona Fall League. He projects as an AL player; maybe the hit tool makes him a trade chip.

“You can’t just walk away from him,” a third scout said.

The Rule 5 decisions

Arquimedes Gamboa is a 20-year-old shortstop who is the organization’s best infield defender. He lacks power but he showed some on-base skill. He is the club’s most interesting Rule 5 decision; it’s why the Phillies will send him to the Arizona Fall League for some further challenges. “He’s one of our most-tooled-up kids we’ve got,” Minniti said. Gamboa has a flare that, depending on the perspective, is just his style or prompts questions about his effort level.

But he has above-average speed and an above-average arm and those are tools that few players in the organization possess. That is why the Phillies could add him to the 40-man roster. A club could use a Rule 5 pick on Gamboa with the idea of carrying him as a defensive player — akin to what Texas did with Carlos Tocci this season — but the bat is not even close to readiness.

This season was something of an awakening for Jose Pujols, always touted for his power but hamstrung by holes in his swing. He was unprotected last winter and not selected because he had a .552 OPS and 150 strikeouts for Clearwater. He repeated Clearwater in 2018 and finished at Reading. The power stroke returned. The strikeouts dipped a bit. The walks were up. Pujols turns 23 at the end of the month and a team could be enticed by his raw power and rebound season.

“Whether whatever adjustment he made is sustainable, it’s tough to say,” said an AL scout, who saw Pujols at the beginning and end of the season.

But Pujols has power to all fields. He has a plus arm. It’s a package that could land him on a rebuilding team with a roster spot to burn.

From the time Deivi Grullon entered the system as a big-bonus catcher from the Dominican Republic, observers lauded his defensive skills. He added huge power numbers at Reading in 2018. He projects as a backup catcher with a strong arm. There are concerns about his conditioning. He looks to pull the ball and his swing is sometimes long and exploited by pitchers. But catching is hard to find, and that could convince a team to take a deeper look.

Two more catchers, Austin Bossart and Edgar Cabral, are eligible. Bossart was Grullon’s backup. Cabral, who earned an invitation to big-league camp last spring, split time at Clearwater. Both are strong-armed catchers who could be reserves.

The sketch

The next farm director will inherit some deficient areas. Team president Andy MacPhail, who is less involved in baseball decisions but helped shape the organization’s philosophies, believes the Phillies can develop arms and buy bats. They leaned toward safer position-player picks in recent drafts, which were guided by analytics that favor college players with on-base skills.

“A lot of utility types,” an AL scout said. “That’s what’s kind of scary about them.”

There’s an argument to be made that major-league rosters feature fewer players with a hit tool than ever before. The Phillies have placed more value on that tool than ones found in more athletic-type prospects. If the previous regime was dinged for its riskier, high-ceiling selections, then the new one should not be punished for swaying in the opposite direction. Perhaps, then, the sweet spot is in the middle.

The player-development staff, which will feature a new cohort of hitting instructors, has a gap to overcome.

“I’m not going to sit here and say that our group was or wasn’t doing certain things because it’s not that simple or it’s not isolated to just that,” Klentak said. “But I do think, broadly speaking in player development, we do want to create an environment of open-mindedness and forward thinking.”

> State of the Phillies farm system: Assessing the pitchers, and sorting through the organization’s strength

(Top photo of Mickey Moniak: Cliff Welch / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)