(Editor’s note: This is part of the Bracket Central Series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s and women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.)
Usually, right around this time, we find ourselves saying, “Do any of these bubble teams actually want to play in the NCAA Tournament?”
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Not this season. In six years of doing Bracket Watch, we can’t remember a time when the cutline has been this competitive two days before Selection Sunday. Consider teams that were just outside our field before Thursday:
• Providence, which beat Creighton in the Big East tournament for its sixth Quad 1 win.
• Colorado, which entered the day 26th in KenPom, blew out Utah in the Pac-12 tournament.
• New Mexico, which beat Boise State in the Mountain West tournament for its fourth Q1 win after entering the day 25th in the NET.
That doesn’t even count Pitt, which knocked Wake Forest out of the ACC tournament as part of its late surge. Meanwhile, three teams in our First Four — Virginia, Texas A&M and St. John’s — all won too, as did the team with the last bye, Mississippi State. Imagine if Villanova managed to beat Marquette in overtime.
It looked like an extra spot in the field would open up when the top two seeds in the Atlantic 10 lost in the quarterfinals, but then Dayton went ahead and lost too, assuring that the league gets two bids. In this game of musical chairs, the tune is winding down, and the seats are rapidly diminishing.
And we think that’s bad news, sadly, for Indiana State.
The Sycamores are a great story, but the resume remains awfully thin. They get bumped in favor of New Mexico, which improved to 7-7 in the first two quads and rose to 23rd in the NET and 27th in KenPom. It’s hard to see a team with those numbers being left out. Colorado is 26th in the NET with no losses outside of the first two quads. But dig a little deeper on the Buffaloes. While clearly talented, they haven’t beaten a team in the top 40 of the NET all season. Their two Quad 1 wins came against Washington and Oregon, neither of whom is sniffing tournament consideration. Colorado has beaten just one team in the field — Washington State, at home — and has a losing record in the first two quads and on the road. Those are giant red flags.
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There’s still basketball left to be played — chances for teams like Providence (vs. Marquette) and Pitt (against North Carolina) to boost their resumes or for teams like Texas A&M (against Kentucky) and Mississippi State (vs. Tennessee) to play themselves out of the field with poor showings on Friday. Colorado gets another shot at Washington State in Las Vegas and perhaps can solidify its standing. Another at-large spot could open up if Florida Atlantic wins the AAC tournament; the Owls open the postseason on Friday. Unfortunately for Indiana State, all it can do is wait.
A few good teams likely will miss the tournament. It’s almost an argument for expanding the field … except the exclusivity is what makes the drama of Championship Week so compelling.
| First Four Out | Next Four Out | Last Four In | Last Four Byes |
|---|---|---|---|
Indiana State | Kansas State | Virginia | Michigan State |
Colorado | Villanova | St. John's | Oklahoma |
Providence | Ohio State | New Mexico | Seton Hall |
Pitt | Wake Forest | Texas A&M | Mississippi State |
| League | Bids |
|---|---|
Big 12 | 9 |
SEC | 8 |
Big Ten | 6 |
Mountain West | 6 |
Big East | 5 |
ACC | 4 |
Pac-12 | 2 |
A10 | 2 |
AAC | 2 |
WCC | 2 |
1 | Purdue | AQ |
2 | Houston | AQ |
3 | UConn | AQ |
4 | Tennessee | AQ |
5 | North Carolina | AQ |
6 | Arizona | AQ |
7 | Iowa State | |
8 | Marquette | |
9 | Baylor | |
10 | Creighton | |
11 | Duke | |
12 | Kentucky | |
13 | Kansas | |
14 | Illinois | |
15 | Alabama | |
16 | BYU | |
17 | Auburn | |
18 | South Carolina | |
19 | Washington State | |
20 | Utah State | AQ |
21 | Clemson | |
22 | Saint Mary's | AQ |
23 | Texas Tech | |
24 | San Diego State | |
25 | Florida | |
26 | Gonzaga | |
27 | Boise State | |
28 | Nevada | |
29 | Texas | |
30 | Wisconsin | |
31 | Northwestern | |
32 | Dayton | |
33 | Nebraska | |
34 | Colorado State | |
35 | Florida Atlantic | |
36 | TCU | |
37 | Michigan State | |
38 | Oklahoma | |
39 | Seton Hall | |
40 | Drake | AQ |
41 | Mississippi State | |
42 | Virginia | |
43 | St. John's | |
44 | New Mexico | |
45 | Texas A&M | |
46 | James Madison | AQ |
47 | South Florida | AQ |
48 | Grand Canyon | AQ |
49 | McNeese State | AQ |
50 | VCU | AQ |
51 | Samford | AQ |
52 | Princeton | AQ |
53 | Akron | AQ |
54 | UC Irvine | AQ |
55 | Vermont | AQ |
56 | Charleston | AQ |
57 | Oakland | AQ |
58 | Morehead State | AQ |
59 | Colgate | AQ |
60 | Sam Houston State | AQ |
61 | South Dakota State | AQ |
62 | Longwood | AQ |
63 | Quinnipiac | AQ |
64 | Montana State | AQ |
65 | Stetson | AQ |
66 | Norfolk State | AQ |
67 | Grambling | AQ |
68 | Wagner | AQ |
The Bracket Central series is part of a partnership with E*TRADE.
The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Photo of Virginia’s Reece Beekman: Nick Wass / AP)