The Midwest Regional of the 2024 NCAA Tournament features the Big 10 regular season champion Purdue, the SEC regular season champion Tennessee, as well as Kansas and several teams looking to pull an upset in March Madness.
Purdue again is a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. After last year’s loss to No. 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson, the Boilermakers want to re-write their tournament history. They’re led by last year’s NCAA Player of the Year and this year’s Big Ten Player of the Year Zach Edey.
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Can the Boilermakers make it out of the Midwest Regional and to the Final Four in Arizona? The Midwest Regional right now has 18 teams in it because two of the First Four games are in this regional. Nos. 10 Colorado State and Virginia will play Tuesday for the right to play Texas in the first round and Nos. 16 Grambling and Montana State will play for the right to play Purdue.
The No. 2-seed Volunteers have never made a Final Four and this could be their best chance since the 2010 team that advanced to the Elite Eight. Dalton Knecht averaged more than 20 points per game and claimed SEC Player of the Year honors.
If you’re hunting for upsets, No. 12 seed McNeese and No. 13 seed Samford may be your cup of tea. McNeese is 30-3 this season with one of the most effective offenses in the country according to KenPom and also boasts a defense that turns opponents over 23.1 percent of the time. The Cowboys play Gonzaga in the first round.
A banged-up Kansas team will need to play its best basketball to beat Samford. The Bulldogs love to take a lot of 3-pointers and have the eighth-best percentage in the country. Junior forward Achor Achor averages 15.8 points per game and 6.1 rebounds per game.
All odds are from BetMGM.
“Sweet 16 projected chance” is the percentage chance that Austin Mock’s model gives a team to make the Sweet 16. “Final Four projected chance” is the percentage chance that his model gives a team to make the Final Four. See his full projections here.
You can buy tickets to all tournament games here.
Purdue
Strengths: Matt Painter’s crew is in the top five in adjusted offensive efficiency and top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Boilermakers share the ball beautifully (No. 4 nationally in assists-to-field-goals made) and bombard the basket from all points, shooting over 41 percent on 3-pointers in the regular season and converting over 53 percent from inside the arc. At 7-foot-4, Zach Edey’s sheer size and dexterity typically dominate the paint. With the big man flanked by superb gunners Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, Mason Gillis and Lance Jones, Purdue is excellent on defense.
Weaknesses: Despite being a seasoned group, the Boilermakers too often leave the door ajar after halftime. Their stellar execution on both ends dries up late in games, leading to uncomfortable hold-the-line moments. Over the season’s final two months, Purdue also deteriorated in two key areas — offensive turnover rate and perimeter defense. If the Boilermakers don’t challenge shots effectively, disaster could strike.
Outlook: Purdue Pete still hasn’t recovered from last year’s opening-round debacle vs. Fairleigh Dickinson. To permanently bury their demons, the Boilers must bring a consistent 40 minutes. They have what’s needed to conquer the bracket — in particular, Jones’ off-the-dribble efficiency and overall athleticism give PU the backcourt spark they sorely lacked last year.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Matt Painter’s crew is in the top five in adjusted offensive efficiency and top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Boilermakers share the ball beautifully (No. 4 nationally in assists-to-field-goals made) and bombard the basket from all points, shooting over 41 percent on 3-pointers in the regular season and converting over 53 percent from inside the arc. At 7-foot-4, Zach Edey’s sheer size and dexterity typically dominate the paint. With the big man flanked by superb gunners Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, Mason Gillis and Lance Jones, Purdue is excellent on defense.
Weaknesses: Despite being a seasoned group, the Boilermakers too often leave the door ajar after halftime. Their stellar execution on both ends dries up late in games, leading to uncomfortable hold-the-line moments. Over the season’s final two months, Purdue also deteriorated in two key areas — offensive turnover rate and perimeter defense. If the Boilermakers don’t challenge shots effectively, disaster could strike.
Outlook: Purdue Pete still hasn’t recovered from last year’s opening-round debacle vs. Fairleigh Dickinson. To permanently bury their demons, the Boilers must bring a consistent 40 minutes. They have what’s needed to conquer the bracket — in particular, Jones’ off-the-dribble efficiency and overall athleticism give PU the backcourt spark they sorely lacked last year.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Matt Painter’s crew is in the top five in adjusted offensive efficiency and top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Boilermakers share the ball beautifully (No. 4 nationally in assists-to-field-goals made) and bombard the basket from all points, shooting over 41 percent on 3-pointers in the regular season and converting over 53 percent from inside the arc. At 7-foot-4, Zach Edey’s sheer size and dexterity typically dominate the paint. With the big man flanked by superb gunners Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, Mason Gillis and Lance Jones, Purdue is excellent on defense.
Weaknesses: Despite being a seasoned group, the Boilermakers too often leave the door ajar after halftime. Their stellar execution on both ends dries up late in games, leading to uncomfortable hold-the-line moments. Over the season’s final two months, Purdue also deteriorated in two key areas — offensive turnover rate and perimeter defense. If the Boilermakers don’t challenge shots effectively, disaster could strike.
Outlook: Purdue Pete still hasn’t recovered from last year’s opening-round debacle vs. Fairleigh Dickinson. To permanently bury their demons, the Boilers must bring a consistent 40 minutes. They have what’s needed to conquer the bracket — in particular, Jones’ off-the-dribble efficiency and overall athleticism give PU the backcourt spark they sorely lacked last year.
—Brad Evans
Team in 16 words: The Boilermakers have a proven veteran core determined to erase last year’s opening-round nightmare.
Record: 29-4 (17-3 Big Ten)
Coach: Matt Painter (17-15 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Zach Edey (Big Ten Player of the Year)
Tennessee
Strengths: This team has all the ingredients to get it done, thanks to Dalton Knecht going from presumed nice portal add to transformational lottery talent. He’s the most talented Volunteer since Allan Houston 30 years ago, and he’s why Tennessee’s offensive efficiency has risen to elite — joining its defensive efficiency, which is always there. Tennessee has the scoring star, the point guard (Zakai Zeigler), the big man (Jonas Aidoo), the depth, the experience and the togetherness. This is the team, for Tennessee and coach Rick Barnes.
Weaknesses: Even with Knecht, and even with the Vols making a significant leap in tempo this season — a key Barnes adjustment — Tennessee can find itself in offensive funks. Some of that is a tendency to settle for 3-pointers rather than forcing opponents to defend inside-out. Some of it is simply not making good shots. Santiago Vescovi was a central offensive piece the past two seasons and has struggled. Aidoo can still be overpowered at times, especially by physical bigs. That all came to fruition in an SEC Tournament loss to Mississippi State.
Outlook: Knecht is going to get the ball and he’s going to get attention and various looks from opponents. Offensive role players Vescovi, Josiah-Jordan James and Jordan Gainey are going to get clean looks and will have to hit enough to keep people honest. As long as the Vols don’t have deathly offensive droughts, they have the defense — a defense that went on the road and held Alabama and its then-No. 1 offense without a bucket for nine minutes — to get this thing to Arizona.
—Joe Rexrode
Strengths: This team has all the ingredients to get it done, thanks to Dalton Knecht going from presumed nice portal add to transformational lottery talent. He’s the most talented Volunteer since Allan Houston 30 years ago, and he’s why Tennessee’s offensive efficiency has risen to elite — joining its defensive efficiency, which is always there. Tennessee has the scoring star, the point guard (Zakai Zeigler), the big man (Jonas Aidoo), the depth, the experience and the togetherness. This is the team, for Tennessee and coach Rick Barnes.
Weaknesses: Even with Knecht, and even with the Vols making a significant leap in tempo this season — a key Barnes adjustment — Tennessee can find itself in offensive funks. Some of that is a tendency to settle for 3-pointers rather than forcing opponents to defend inside-out. Some of it is simply not making good shots. Santiago Vescovi was a central offensive piece the past two seasons and has struggled. Aidoo can still be overpowered at times, especially by physical bigs. That all came to fruition in an SEC Tournament loss to Mississippi State.
Outlook: Knecht is going to get the ball and he’s going to get attention and various looks from opponents. Offensive role players Vescovi, Josiah-Jordan James and Jordan Gainey are going to get clean looks and will have to hit enough to keep people honest. As long as the Vols don’t have deathly offensive droughts, they have the defense — a defense that went on the road and held Alabama and its then-No. 1 offense without a bucket for nine minutes — to get this thing to Arizona.
—Joe Rexrode
Strengths: This team has all the ingredients to get it done, thanks to Dalton Knecht going from presumed nice portal add to transformational lottery talent. He’s the most talented Volunteer since Allan Houston 30 years ago, and he’s why Tennessee’s offensive efficiency has risen to elite — joining its defensive efficiency, which is always there. Tennessee has the scoring star, the point guard (Zakai Zeigler), the big man (Jonas Aidoo), the depth, the experience and the togetherness. This is the team, for Tennessee and coach Rick Barnes.
Weaknesses: Even with Knecht, and even with the Vols making a significant leap in tempo this season — a key Barnes adjustment — Tennessee can find itself in offensive funks. Some of that is a tendency to settle for 3-pointers rather than forcing opponents to defend inside-out. Some of it is simply not making good shots. Santiago Vescovi was a central offensive piece the past two seasons and has struggled. Aidoo can still be overpowered at times, especially by physical bigs. That all came to fruition in an SEC Tournament loss to Mississippi State.
Outlook: Knecht is going to get the ball and he’s going to get attention and various looks from opponents. Offensive role players Vescovi, Josiah-Jordan James and Jordan Gainey are going to get clean looks and will have to hit enough to keep people honest. As long as the Vols don’t have deathly offensive droughts, they have the defense — a defense that went on the road and held Alabama and its then-No. 1 offense without a bucket for nine minutes — to get this thing to Arizona.
—Joe Rexrode
Team in 16 words: This is Tennessee’s best national championship shot since Ernie and Bernie, if not its best ever.
Record: 24-8 (14-4 SEC)
Coach: Rick Barnes (27-27 in NCAA Tournament, 1 Final Four)
Player to watch: Dalton Knecht (SEC Player of the Year)
Creighton
Strengths: It starts with Ryan Kalkbrenner, a 7-foot-1 anchor who is a three-time reigning Big East Defensive Player of the Year. The Jays are exceptional at running opposing shooters off the 3-point line and funneling them into the big fella at the rim. Their opponents had the highest percentage of shots from 2-point range in college hoops this season — and the Jays are elite at defending from that range. Greg McDermott has shooters galore, from Steven Ashworth to Baylor Scheierman to Trey Alexander. All three are elite catch-and-shoot threats.
Weaknesses: There are two major concerns with this team. The first is that they lack a truly explosive creator. There aren’t many coaches better than McDermott at scheming his team shots with the sets that he runs, but on nights when a defense can take the Bluejays out of what they want to run, they don’t have a guy who can go get a shot on his own. The other issue is that Creighton really goes about four deep. Francisco Farabello, Mason Miller and Isaac Traudt are fine when it comes to being shooters and floor-spacers, but there’s not much else that they bring.
Outlook: I am higher than the field on this Creighton team. I’m less concerned with their lack of depth than others because Creighton is sensational when it comes to avoiding fouls. That, combined with the longer TV timeouts in the NCAA Tournament, makes the depth issues far less of a concern. They have one of the five best big men in America, Scheierman has been on an incredible run the last six weeks and the Jays are a nightmare to prepare for on short notice.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: It starts with Ryan Kalkbrenner, a 7-foot-1 anchor who is a three-time reigning Big East Defensive Player of the Year. The Jays are exceptional at running opposing shooters off the 3-point line and funneling them into the big fella at the rim. Their opponents had the highest percentage of shots from 2-point range in college hoops this season — and the Jays are elite at defending from that range. Greg McDermott has shooters galore, from Steven Ashworth to Baylor Scheierman to Trey Alexander. All three are elite catch-and-shoot threats.
Weaknesses: There are two major concerns with this team. The first is that they lack a truly explosive creator. There aren’t many coaches better than McDermott at scheming his team shots with the sets that he runs, but on nights when a defense can take the Bluejays out of what they want to run, they don’t have a guy who can go get a shot on his own. The other issue is that Creighton really goes about four deep. Francisco Farabello, Mason Miller and Isaac Traudt are fine when it comes to being shooters and floor-spacers, but there’s not much else that they bring.
Outlook: I am higher than the field on this Creighton team. I’m less concerned with their lack of depth than others because Creighton is sensational when it comes to avoiding fouls. That, combined with the longer TV timeouts in the NCAA Tournament, makes the depth issues far less of a concern. They have one of the five best big men in America, Scheierman has been on an incredible run the last six weeks and the Jays are a nightmare to prepare for on short notice.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: It starts with Ryan Kalkbrenner, a 7-foot-1 anchor who is a three-time reigning Big East Defensive Player of the Year. The Jays are exceptional at running opposing shooters off the 3-point line and funneling them into the big fella at the rim. Their opponents had the highest percentage of shots from 2-point range in college hoops this season — and the Jays are elite at defending from that range. Greg McDermott has shooters galore, from Steven Ashworth to Baylor Scheierman to Trey Alexander. All three are elite catch-and-shoot threats.
Weaknesses: There are two major concerns with this team. The first is that they lack a truly explosive creator. There aren’t many coaches better than McDermott at scheming his team shots with the sets that he runs, but on nights when a defense can take the Bluejays out of what they want to run, they don’t have a guy who can go get a shot on his own. The other issue is that Creighton really goes about four deep. Francisco Farabello, Mason Miller and Isaac Traudt are fine when it comes to being shooters and floor-spacers, but there’s not much else that they bring.
Outlook: I am higher than the field on this Creighton team. I’m less concerned with their lack of depth than others because Creighton is sensational when it comes to avoiding fouls. That, combined with the longer TV timeouts in the NCAA Tournament, makes the depth issues far less of a concern. They have one of the five best big men in America, Scheierman has been on an incredible run the last six weeks and the Jays are a nightmare to prepare for on short notice.
—Rob Dauster
Team in 16 words: Creighton’s rep? A team that "lets it fly" — but the Bluejays are a stalwart defensive outfit.
Record: 23-9 (14-6 Big East)
Coach: Greg McDermott (9-11 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Baylor Scheierman (first-team All-Big East)
Kansas
Strengths: Kansas shares the ball (it leads all teams in assist rate), it makes a ton of its 2-point attempts (54.8 percent) and has one of the game’s elite five-man units. The Jayhawks aren’t elite defensively, but are solid inside the paint and in passing lanes. They’re also underrated as an up-tempo team. Kansas outgunned Kentucky earlier this season. When they’re hitting from the perimeter — or if point guard Dajuan Harris Jr. is able to attract attention — Kansas can play with anyone.
Weaknesses: The bench gets most of the attention — only a handful of high-major teams play their starters more than Kansas — but that’s not what derails KU. It’s the shot volume. Between pitiful offensive rebounding (291st in the country) and turnover propensity, Kansas is well below the national average at creating opportunities to score. The Jayhawks shoot 33 percent beyond the arc, but fewer than 30 percent of their shots come from deep, 333rd nationally.
Outlook: The Jayhawks were No. 1 in the AP preseason poll. They beat UConn, Tennessee and Houston. But their two All-Big 12 players — Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr. have been battling injuries. McCullar, the Big 12’s leading scorer (18.3 ppg) sufered a bone bruise in late January and will miss the tournament. Dickinson, the league’s second-leading scorer (18.0 ppg) and top rebounder (10.8 rpg), dislocated his shoulder and missed the Big 12 Tournament. But he says he will play! It could be the second straight season Kansas exits before the second week.
—Mike Miller
Strengths: Kansas shares the ball (it leads all teams in assist rate), it makes a ton of its 2-point attempts (54.8 percent) and has one of the game’s elite five-man units. The Jayhawks aren’t elite defensively, but are solid inside the paint and in passing lanes. They’re also underrated as an up-tempo team. Kansas outgunned Kentucky earlier this season. When they’re hitting from the perimeter — or if point guard Dajuan Harris Jr. is able to attract attention — Kansas can play with anyone.
Weaknesses: The bench gets most of the attention — only a handful of high-major teams play their starters more than Kansas — but that’s not what derails KU. It’s the shot volume. Between pitiful offensive rebounding (291st in the country) and turnover propensity, Kansas is well below the national average at creating opportunities to score. The Jayhawks shoot 33 percent beyond the arc, but fewer than 30 percent of their shots come from deep, 333rd nationally.
Outlook: The Jayhawks were No. 1 in the AP preseason poll. They beat UConn, Tennessee and Houston. But their two All-Big 12 players — Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr. have been battling injuries. McCullar, the Big 12’s leading scorer (18.3 ppg) sufered a bone bruise in late January and will miss the tournament. Dickinson, the league’s second-leading scorer (18.0 ppg) and top rebounder (10.8 rpg), dislocated his shoulder and missed the Big 12 Tournament. But he says he will play! It could be the second straight season Kansas exits before the second week.
—Mike Miller
Strengths: Kansas shares the ball (it leads all teams in assist rate), it makes a ton of its 2-point attempts (54.8 percent) and has one of the game’s elite five-man units. The Jayhawks aren’t elite defensively, but are solid inside the paint and in passing lanes. They’re also underrated as an up-tempo team. Kansas outgunned Kentucky earlier this season. When they’re hitting from the perimeter — or if point guard Dajuan Harris Jr. is able to attract attention — Kansas can play with anyone.
Weaknesses: The bench gets most of the attention — only a handful of high-major teams play their starters more than Kansas — but that’s not what derails KU. It’s the shot volume. Between pitiful offensive rebounding (291st in the country) and turnover propensity, Kansas is well below the national average at creating opportunities to score. The Jayhawks shoot 33 percent beyond the arc, but fewer than 30 percent of their shots come from deep, 333rd nationally.
Outlook: The Jayhawks were No. 1 in the AP preseason poll. They beat UConn, Tennessee and Houston. But their two All-Big 12 players — Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr. have been battling injuries. McCullar, the Big 12’s leading scorer (18.3 ppg) sufered a bone bruise in late January and will miss the tournament. Dickinson, the league’s second-leading scorer (18.0 ppg) and top rebounder (10.8 rpg), dislocated his shoulder and missed the Big 12 Tournament. But he says he will play! It could be the second straight season Kansas exits before the second week.
—Mike Miller
Team in 16 words: Awesome starting five that when healthy can beat anyone. But they’re not healthy. Upset watch.
Record: 22-10 (10-8 Big 12)
Coach: Bill Self (56-22 in NCAA Tournament, 4 Final Fours, 2 national titles)
Player to watch: Hunter Dickinson (first-team All-Big 12)
Gonzaga
Strengths: Gonzaga’s offense gets fans out of their seats like rocking chords of “Born to Run” at a Bruce Springsteen concert. Mark Few’s crew won 14 of its last 16 contests. The Bulldogs improved defensively and are now top 40 in effective field-goal percentage nationally. Not to be discounted, the Zags rarely turn over the ball and generate second-chance opportunities. Forward Graham Ike scored at least 20 points in a seven-game stretch that started on Feb. 10. His dominance in the paint combined with Ryan Nembhard’s floor leadership gives the Bulldogs a deadly 1-2 punch.
Weaknesses: Sporadic conversions from 3-point range limit Gonzaga’s overall offensive impact. Nembhard, Nolan Hickman and Ben Gregg are capable sharpshooters, but only 24.5 percent of the Bulldogs’ scoring production has come on 3s, ranking outside the top 300 nationally. Most discouraging, a formidable interior defensive team featuring a proven frontline could force them into uncomfortable situations.
Outlook: Only weeks ago, Gonzaga’s 24 straight NCAA Tournament appearances streak was in jeopardy. Then, the script flipped. The Bulldogs’ stellar road wins against Kentucky and Saint Mary’s showed the Zags’ evolution. Humming at the most opportune time, they are a likely bracket disrupter.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Gonzaga’s offense gets fans out of their seats like rocking chords of “Born to Run” at a Bruce Springsteen concert. Mark Few’s crew won 14 of its last 16 contests. The Bulldogs improved defensively and are now top 40 in effective field-goal percentage nationally. Not to be discounted, the Zags rarely turn over the ball and generate second-chance opportunities. Forward Graham Ike scored at least 20 points in a seven-game stretch that started on Feb. 10. His dominance in the paint combined with Ryan Nembhard’s floor leadership gives the Bulldogs a deadly 1-2 punch.
Weaknesses: Sporadic conversions from 3-point range limit Gonzaga’s overall offensive impact. Nembhard, Nolan Hickman and Ben Gregg are capable sharpshooters, but only 24.5 percent of the Bulldogs’ scoring production has come on 3s, ranking outside the top 300 nationally. Most discouraging, a formidable interior defensive team featuring a proven frontline could force them into uncomfortable situations.
Outlook: Only weeks ago, Gonzaga’s 24 straight NCAA Tournament appearances streak was in jeopardy. Then, the script flipped. The Bulldogs’ stellar road wins against Kentucky and Saint Mary’s showed the Zags’ evolution. Humming at the most opportune time, they are a likely bracket disrupter.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Gonzaga’s offense gets fans out of their seats like rocking chords of “Born to Run” at a Bruce Springsteen concert. Mark Few’s crew won 14 of its last 16 contests. The Bulldogs improved defensively and are now top 40 in effective field-goal percentage nationally. Not to be discounted, the Zags rarely turn over the ball and generate second-chance opportunities. Forward Graham Ike scored at least 20 points in a seven-game stretch that started on Feb. 10. His dominance in the paint combined with Ryan Nembhard’s floor leadership gives the Bulldogs a deadly 1-2 punch.
Weaknesses: Sporadic conversions from 3-point range limit Gonzaga’s overall offensive impact. Nembhard, Nolan Hickman and Ben Gregg are capable sharpshooters, but only 24.5 percent of the Bulldogs’ scoring production has come on 3s, ranking outside the top 300 nationally. Most discouraging, a formidable interior defensive team featuring a proven frontline could force them into uncomfortable situations.
Outlook: Only weeks ago, Gonzaga’s 24 straight NCAA Tournament appearances streak was in jeopardy. Then, the script flipped. The Bulldogs’ stellar road wins against Kentucky and Saint Mary’s showed the Zags’ evolution. Humming at the most opportune time, they are a likely bracket disrupter.
—Brad Evans
Team in 16 words: The Zags, once on the bubble, lept into the field largely due to superb offensive execution.
Record: 25-7 (14-2 WCC)
Coach: Mark Few (41-23 NCAA Tournament, 2 Final Fours)
Player to watch: Graham Ike (first-team All-WCC)
South Carolina
Strengths: Slam-dunk SEC Coach of the Year — and national coach of the year contender — Lamont Paris has brought the gritty, deliberate basketball he absorbed from Bo Ryan at Wisconsin, and produced one of the sport’s surprise teams in his second season. Meechie Johnson sets the tone, an aggressive force on both ends — not a great shooter, but he hits big shots. Freshman big man Collin Murray-Boyles is going to be a pro. The Gamecocks are top 60 in offensive and defensive efficiency, at around 350 in tempo. They are big and powerful everywhere, starting with 6-foot-8, 270-pound forward B.J. Mack.
Weaknesses: When it goes bad for this team, it goes really bad – such as an 86-55 SEC Tournament loss to high-flying Auburn, a team with the speed and athleticism to blow up the way the Gamecocks want to play. But as long as South Carolina keeps things close, it usually finds a way to win. Ta’Lon Cooper and Myles Stute are both efficient 3-point shooters, but everyone else who shoots from long range with any volume is in the high 20s/low 30s in percentage. If an opponent can take Murray-Boyles away without doubling, South Carolina can get stagnant.
Outlook: The last look at this team wasn’t pretty: A 28 percent shooting night with the opponent getting 17 layups or dunks. An athletic opponent who is willing to be that aggressive is a bad matchup, though few, if any, teams in college basketball have as much horsepower as Auburn. If South Carolina plays its brand of basketball, it can get to the second weekend. Johnson is the kind of player who wills teams to win in March.
—Joe Rexrode
Strengths: Slam-dunk SEC Coach of the Year — and national coach of the year contender — Lamont Paris has brought the gritty, deliberate basketball he absorbed from Bo Ryan at Wisconsin, and produced one of the sport’s surprise teams in his second season. Meechie Johnson sets the tone, an aggressive force on both ends — not a great shooter, but he hits big shots. Freshman big man Collin Murray-Boyles is going to be a pro. The Gamecocks are top 60 in offensive and defensive efficiency, at around 350 in tempo. They are big and powerful everywhere, starting with 6-foot-8, 270-pound forward B.J. Mack.
Weaknesses: When it goes bad for this team, it goes really bad – such as an 86-55 SEC Tournament loss to high-flying Auburn, a team with the speed and athleticism to blow up the way the Gamecocks want to play. But as long as South Carolina keeps things close, it usually finds a way to win. Ta’Lon Cooper and Myles Stute are both efficient 3-point shooters, but everyone else who shoots from long range with any volume is in the high 20s/low 30s in percentage. If an opponent can take Murray-Boyles away without doubling, South Carolina can get stagnant.
Outlook: The last look at this team wasn’t pretty: A 28 percent shooting night with the opponent getting 17 layups or dunks. An athletic opponent who is willing to be that aggressive is a bad matchup, though few, if any, teams in college basketball have as much horsepower as Auburn. If South Carolina plays its brand of basketball, it can get to the second weekend. Johnson is the kind of player who wills teams to win in March.
—Joe Rexrode
Strengths: Slam-dunk SEC Coach of the Year — and national coach of the year contender — Lamont Paris has brought the gritty, deliberate basketball he absorbed from Bo Ryan at Wisconsin, and produced one of the sport’s surprise teams in his second season. Meechie Johnson sets the tone, an aggressive force on both ends — not a great shooter, but he hits big shots. Freshman big man Collin Murray-Boyles is going to be a pro. The Gamecocks are top 60 in offensive and defensive efficiency, at around 350 in tempo. They are big and powerful everywhere, starting with 6-foot-8, 270-pound forward B.J. Mack.
Weaknesses: When it goes bad for this team, it goes really bad – such as an 86-55 SEC Tournament loss to high-flying Auburn, a team with the speed and athleticism to blow up the way the Gamecocks want to play. But as long as South Carolina keeps things close, it usually finds a way to win. Ta’Lon Cooper and Myles Stute are both efficient 3-point shooters, but everyone else who shoots from long range with any volume is in the high 20s/low 30s in percentage. If an opponent can take Murray-Boyles away without doubling, South Carolina can get stagnant.
Outlook: The last look at this team wasn’t pretty: A 28 percent shooting night with the opponent getting 17 layups or dunks. An athletic opponent who is willing to be that aggressive is a bad matchup, though few, if any, teams in college basketball have as much horsepower as Auburn. If South Carolina plays its brand of basketball, it can get to the second weekend. Johnson is the kind of player who wills teams to win in March.
—Joe Rexrode
Team in 16 words: South Carolina’s toughness is elite, but athletic, fast-paced teams can give the Gamecocks problems.
Record: 26-7 (13-5 SEC)
Coach: Lamont Paris (0-1 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Meechie Johnson (second-team All-SEC)
Texas
Strengths: When Texas plays through Dylan Disu, it’s an elite offense. The 6-foot-9 big is a load down low, and has made half of his 78 3-point attempts this season. When he and Max Abmas (17.1 ppg, 37 percent from 3) are on, the Longhorns are a load. They’re also among the most experienced teams in the field and made a run to the Elite Eight last season before losing to Miami.
Weaknesses: Texas stinks at rebounding and perimeter defense. Not a good combo when you’re trying to keep teams from scoring.
Outlook: Texas seemingly has all the pieces. An elite scorer in Abmas. A lock-down defender in Tyrese Hunter. Disu can score from inside and out. Dillon Mitchell’s a bouncy slasher with athleticism. Kadin Shedrick can protect the rim, and Brock Cunningham does a little of everything. Yet the pieces rarely fit. Another run to the Elite Eight seems improbable.
—Mike Miller
Strengths: When Texas plays through Dylan Disu, it’s an elite offense. The 6-foot-9 big is a load down low, and has made half of his 78 3-point attempts this season. When he and Max Abmas (17.1 ppg, 37 percent from 3) are on, the Longhorns are a load. They’re also among the most experienced teams in the field and made a run to the Elite Eight last season before losing to Miami.
Weaknesses: Texas stinks at rebounding and perimeter defense. Not a good combo when you’re trying to keep teams from scoring.
Outlook: Texas seemingly has all the pieces. An elite scorer in Abmas. A lock-down defender in Tyrese Hunter. Disu can score from inside and out. Dillon Mitchell’s a bouncy slasher with athleticism. Kadin Shedrick can protect the rim, and Brock Cunningham does a little of everything. Yet the pieces rarely fit. Another run to the Elite Eight seems improbable.
—Mike Miller
Strengths: When Texas plays through Dylan Disu, it’s an elite offense. The 6-foot-9 big is a load down low, and has made half of his 78 3-point attempts this season. When he and Max Abmas (17.1 ppg, 37 percent from 3) are on, the Longhorns are a load. They’re also among the most experienced teams in the field and made a run to the Elite Eight last season before losing to Miami.
Weaknesses: Texas stinks at rebounding and perimeter defense. Not a good combo when you’re trying to keep teams from scoring.
Outlook: Texas seemingly has all the pieces. An elite scorer in Abmas. A lock-down defender in Tyrese Hunter. Disu can score from inside and out. Dillon Mitchell’s a bouncy slasher with athleticism. Kadin Shedrick can protect the rim, and Brock Cunningham does a little of everything. Yet the pieces rarely fit. Another run to the Elite Eight seems improbable.
—Mike Miller
Team in 16 words: An underwhelming, underachieving team capable of winning 2-3 tourney games.
Record: 20-12 (9-9 Big 12)
Coach: Rodney Terry (3-2 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Max Abmas (second-team All-Big 12)
Utah State
Strengths: Danny Sprinkle did arguably the best coaching job in America this season. He took over Utah State last March and did not inherit a single point. He brought a couple of his players with him from Montana State — All-Mountain West performers Great Osobor and Darius Brown II — but that doesn’t change the fact that he won a loaded Mountain West building a program from scratch. Offensively, the Aggies are balanced. They have four different players who can lead in scoring any given game.
Weaknesses: For starters, Utah State is not a great 3-point shooting team. They don’t shoot a lot of them, and they don’t shoot them well. They run a lot of offense through Osobor at the five, and while he’s a dominant force at the Mountain West level, that’s not necessarily a guarantee to translate against bigger, more athletic four-men from power-conference schools. The other concern is rim protection. Utah State’s big men struggle defensively.
Outlook: Utah State has a lot going for it. The Aggies have a very good point guard. Their four-man is terrific. Those are the two most important positions in college basketball. But they are not great around the rim defensively and they don’t shoot it all that well. I think this team will have a real chance to win a game, but it’s hard for me to see them making a deep run into the second weekend.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Danny Sprinkle did arguably the best coaching job in America this season. He took over Utah State last March and did not inherit a single point. He brought a couple of his players with him from Montana State — All-Mountain West performers Great Osobor and Darius Brown II — but that doesn’t change the fact that he won a loaded Mountain West building a program from scratch. Offensively, the Aggies are balanced. They have four different players who can lead in scoring any given game.
Weaknesses: For starters, Utah State is not a great 3-point shooting team. They don’t shoot a lot of them, and they don’t shoot them well. They run a lot of offense through Osobor at the five, and while he’s a dominant force at the Mountain West level, that’s not necessarily a guarantee to translate against bigger, more athletic four-men from power-conference schools. The other concern is rim protection. Utah State’s big men struggle defensively.
Outlook: Utah State has a lot going for it. The Aggies have a very good point guard. Their four-man is terrific. Those are the two most important positions in college basketball. But they are not great around the rim defensively and they don’t shoot it all that well. I think this team will have a real chance to win a game, but it’s hard for me to see them making a deep run into the second weekend.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Danny Sprinkle did arguably the best coaching job in America this season. He took over Utah State last March and did not inherit a single point. He brought a couple of his players with him from Montana State — All-Mountain West performers Great Osobor and Darius Brown II — but that doesn’t change the fact that he won a loaded Mountain West building a program from scratch. Offensively, the Aggies are balanced. They have four different players who can lead in scoring any given game.
Weaknesses: For starters, Utah State is not a great 3-point shooting team. They don’t shoot a lot of them, and they don’t shoot them well. They run a lot of offense through Osobor at the five, and while he’s a dominant force at the Mountain West level, that’s not necessarily a guarantee to translate against bigger, more athletic four-men from power-conference schools. The other concern is rim protection. Utah State’s big men struggle defensively.
Outlook: Utah State has a lot going for it. The Aggies have a very good point guard. Their four-man is terrific. Those are the two most important positions in college basketball. But they are not great around the rim defensively and they don’t shoot it all that well. I think this team will have a real chance to win a game, but it’s hard for me to see them making a deep run into the second weekend.
—Rob Dauster
Team in 16 words: The regular-season champions of the Mountain West are the biggest surprise in college hoops.
Record: 27-6 (14-4 MWC)
Coach: Danny Sprinkle (0-2 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Great Osobor (MWC Player of the Year)
TCU
Strengths: The Horned Frogs have experience (third-oldest roster) and speed, two traits that should help them in the second round. Also, watch for Trevian Tennyson, who’s great from outside (41.9 percent) but is in a bit of a slump — just 31 percent in his last eight games.
Weaknesses: Shot-making. Jameer Nelson Jr. and Avery Anderson III are inefficient scorers, and their post scoring is inconsistent. TCU also struggles with turnovers when it plays too fast and doesn’t shoot enough 3-pointers to make up deficits.
Outlook: TCU was one of the last at-large bids, a reflection of its good-not-great profile. It was awesome at home — ask Houston — and just OK on the road. The Horned Frogs were 7-7 in games decided by eight points or less and 4-7 against ranked teams. They can run with anyone, but their offensive scoring droughts prevent them from being elite. Another of the Big 12 teams that’ll be tough to beat but may not be around long.
—Mike Miller
Strengths: The Horned Frogs have experience (third-oldest roster) and speed, two traits that should help them in the second round. Also, watch for Trevian Tennyson, who’s great from outside (41.9 percent) but is in a bit of a slump — just 31 percent in his last eight games.
Weaknesses: Shot-making. Jameer Nelson Jr. and Avery Anderson III are inefficient scorers, and their post scoring is inconsistent. TCU also struggles with turnovers when it plays too fast and doesn’t shoot enough 3-pointers to make up deficits.
Outlook: TCU was one of the last at-large bids, a reflection of its good-not-great profile. It was awesome at home — ask Houston — and just OK on the road. The Horned Frogs were 7-7 in games decided by eight points or less and 4-7 against ranked teams. They can run with anyone, but their offensive scoring droughts prevent them from being elite. Another of the Big 12 teams that’ll be tough to beat but may not be around long.
—Mike Miller
Strengths: The Horned Frogs have experience (third-oldest roster) and speed, two traits that should help them in the second round. Also, watch for Trevian Tennyson, who’s great from outside (41.9 percent) but is in a bit of a slump — just 31 percent in his last eight games.
Weaknesses: Shot-making. Jameer Nelson Jr. and Avery Anderson III are inefficient scorers, and their post scoring is inconsistent. TCU also struggles with turnovers when it plays too fast and doesn’t shoot enough 3-pointers to make up deficits.
Outlook: TCU was one of the last at-large bids, a reflection of its good-not-great profile. It was awesome at home — ask Houston — and just OK on the road. The Horned Frogs were 7-7 in games decided by eight points or less and 4-7 against ranked teams. They can run with anyone, but their offensive scoring droughts prevent them from being elite. Another of the Big 12 teams that’ll be tough to beat but may not be around long.
—Mike Miller
Team in 16 words: TCU plays fast, yet every game feels like a grind.
Record: 21-12 (9-9 Big 12)
Coach: Jamie Dixon (14-14 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Emanuel Miller (second-team All-Big 12)
Colorado State
Strengths: Point guard Isaiah Stevens is one of the finest floor generals west of the Mississippi. His smooth orchestrations explain why CSU slots inside the top five nationally in assists-to-field-goals made. The Rams rarely turn the ball over, convert oodles of around-the-rim hoops (57.6 percent, top 10 in the country) and cash in often on free throws (75.4 percent). Alongside Stevens, fellow starters Joel Scott, Josiah Strong, Patrick Cartier and Nique Clifford kick in scoring contributions. On defense over their final 10 regular-season games, the Rams ranked inside the top 14 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Weaknesses: Though decent on the defensive side, the Rams rarely generate second-chance opportunities, evidenced by their No. 327 ranking in offensive rebounding in the regular season. They netted only 29.9 percent from distance over the final six weeks of the regular season. Cartier and Clifford, in particular, need to rediscover their once-reliable outside strokes.
Outlook: With a non-conference win on a neutral court against high-seeded Creighton and five additional triumphs vs. Quad 1 competition, the Rams have shown they can hang. Guard play is nearly everything in tournament play, and with Stevens on the roster, CSU is capable of ousting a team or three. But a formidable frontline on the opponent’s side may take them down. Given their tough draw, the latter is most likely.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Point guard Isaiah Stevens is one of the finest floor generals west of the Mississippi. His smooth orchestrations explain why CSU slots inside the top five nationally in assists-to-field-goals made. The Rams rarely turn the ball over, convert oodles of around-the-rim hoops (57.6 percent, top 10 in the country) and cash in often on free throws (75.4 percent). Alongside Stevens, fellow starters Joel Scott, Josiah Strong, Patrick Cartier and Nique Clifford kick in scoring contributions. On defense over their final 10 regular-season games, the Rams ranked inside the top 14 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Weaknesses: Though decent on the defensive side, the Rams rarely generate second-chance opportunities, evidenced by their No. 327 ranking in offensive rebounding in the regular season. They netted only 29.9 percent from distance over the final six weeks of the regular season. Cartier and Clifford, in particular, need to rediscover their once-reliable outside strokes.
Outlook: With a non-conference win on a neutral court against high-seeded Creighton and five additional triumphs vs. Quad 1 competition, the Rams have shown they can hang. Guard play is nearly everything in tournament play, and with Stevens on the roster, CSU is capable of ousting a team or three. But a formidable frontline on the opponent’s side may take them down. Given their tough draw, the latter is most likely.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Point guard Isaiah Stevens is one of the finest floor generals west of the Mississippi. His smooth orchestrations explain why CSU slots inside the top five nationally in assists-to-field-goals made. The Rams rarely turn the ball over, convert oodles of around-the-rim hoops (57.6 percent, top 10 in the country) and cash in often on free throws (75.4 percent). Alongside Stevens, fellow starters Joel Scott, Josiah Strong, Patrick Cartier and Nique Clifford kick in scoring contributions. On defense over their final 10 regular-season games, the Rams ranked inside the top 14 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Weaknesses: Though decent on the defensive side, the Rams rarely generate second-chance opportunities, evidenced by their No. 327 ranking in offensive rebounding in the regular season. They netted only 29.9 percent from distance over the final six weeks of the regular season. Cartier and Clifford, in particular, need to rediscover their once-reliable outside strokes.
Outlook: With a non-conference win on a neutral court against high-seeded Creighton and five additional triumphs vs. Quad 1 competition, the Rams have shown they can hang. Guard play is nearly everything in tournament play, and with Stevens on the roster, CSU is capable of ousting a team or three. But a formidable frontline on the opponent’s side may take them down. Given their tough draw, the latter is most likely.
—Brad Evans
Team in 16 words: Despite PG Isaiah Stevens’ stellar stewardship, Colorado State slumped over the season's final month.
Record: 24-10 (10-8 MWC)
Coach: Niko Medved (0-1 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Isaiah Stevens (first-team All-Mountain West)
Virginia
Strengths: If you’ve watched any Virginia games in the past decade, the side of the floor this section focuses on won’t surprise you. The Cavaliers are third in scoring defense (59.5 points per game) and ended the regular season in the top 10 of Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive efficiency rankings for the first time since 2019-20, the year after their national championship run. Reese Beekman is the veteran heartbeat of the team, and rangy sophomore Ryan Dunn is one of the best shot-blockers in the country.
Weaknesses: The Cavaliers play at a pace that makes runaway wins a rarity and early deficits a daunting proposition. And even taking into account that slow pace, they have turned in several stinkers down the stretch against the ACC’s best (and against rival Virginia Tech). Is it bad to fail to crack 50 points in three of your final five regular-season games? For as solid of a player as Beekman is, I don’t love his chances of responding in kind if an opponent’s best player goes on a second-half heater.
Outlook: For long stretches of this season, the ‘Hoos have looked like a caricature of the team their biggest critics make them out to be every year. They largely held serve against inferior teams during the regular season, which would bode well against any would-be Cinderellas, but their recent stumbles have left them as the lower-seeded team looking to catch someone by surprise this March.
—Eric Single
Strengths: If you’ve watched any Virginia games in the past decade, the side of the floor this section focuses on won’t surprise you. The Cavaliers are third in scoring defense (59.5 points per game) and ended the regular season in the top 10 of Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive efficiency rankings for the first time since 2019-20, the year after their national championship run. Reese Beekman is the veteran heartbeat of the team, and rangy sophomore Ryan Dunn is one of the best shot-blockers in the country.
Weaknesses: The Cavaliers play at a pace that makes runaway wins a rarity and early deficits a daunting proposition. And even taking into account that slow pace, they have turned in several stinkers down the stretch against the ACC’s best (and against rival Virginia Tech). Is it bad to fail to crack 50 points in three of your final five regular-season games? For as solid of a player as Beekman is, I don’t love his chances of responding in kind if an opponent’s best player goes on a second-half heater.
Outlook: For long stretches of this season, the ‘Hoos have looked like a caricature of the team their biggest critics make them out to be every year. They largely held serve against inferior teams during the regular season, which would bode well against any would-be Cinderellas, but their recent stumbles have left them as the lower-seeded team looking to catch someone by surprise this March.
—Eric Single
Strengths: If you’ve watched any Virginia games in the past decade, the side of the floor this section focuses on won’t surprise you. The Cavaliers are third in scoring defense (59.5 points per game) and ended the regular season in the top 10 of Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive efficiency rankings for the first time since 2019-20, the year after their national championship run. Reese Beekman is the veteran heartbeat of the team, and rangy sophomore Ryan Dunn is one of the best shot-blockers in the country.
Weaknesses: The Cavaliers play at a pace that makes runaway wins a rarity and early deficits a daunting proposition. And even taking into account that slow pace, they have turned in several stinkers down the stretch against the ACC’s best (and against rival Virginia Tech). Is it bad to fail to crack 50 points in three of your final five regular-season games? For as solid of a player as Beekman is, I don’t love his chances of responding in kind if an opponent’s best player goes on a second-half heater.
Outlook: For long stretches of this season, the ‘Hoos have looked like a caricature of the team their biggest critics make them out to be every year. They largely held serve against inferior teams during the regular season, which would bode well against any would-be Cinderellas, but their recent stumbles have left them as the lower-seeded team looking to catch someone by surprise this March.
—Eric Single
Team in 16 words: Tony Bennett’s Cavaliers play great defense but might have a fatal lack of firepower. Sound familiar?
Record: 23-10 (13-7 ACC)
Coach: Tony Bennett (16-10 in NCAA Tournament, 1 Final Four, 1 national title)
Player to watch: Reece Beekman (second-team All-ACC)
Oregon
Strengths: Pounding the paint is Oregon’s greatest asset. N’Faly Dante simply would not be contained down the homestretch and into the Pac-12 Tournament, which the Ducks needed to win to get into the NCAA Tournament and they did. He enters the NCAA Tournament after a flawless 12-for-12 shooting performance in the championship game against Colorado. Mind-blowing. Over their final seven regular-season contests, Oregon, as a team, made 56.4 percent of its shots inside the arc. Decent on the glass and occasionally effective from 3-point range, Dana Altman’s group has reached their offensive apex at the most opportune time.
Weaknesses: Defensively, the Ducks are more of the rubber variety. Over the final month of the regular season, they ranked a wretched No. 270 nationally in effective field-goal percentage defense, surrendering a staggering 53.3 percent from two and an equally loathsome 35.7 percent from beyond the arc. The Ducks’ backcourt shot the rock more effectively in the Pac-12 tournament, but in their last eight games they checked in at No. 346 in 3-point percentage offense (27.2). Bottom line, the Ducks are truly kings of inconsistency in myriad ways.
Outlook: Much like the NES classic Duck Hunt, the spiraling Quackers — days before the Pac-12 tourney — were food for snickering dogs. However, a stirring and unforeseen March run allowed them to steal a bid. If Dante, Jermaine Couisnard and Jackson Shelstad continue to sizzle, the storybook ending could have them laughing last.
— Brad Evans
Strengths: Pounding the paint is Oregon’s greatest asset. N’Faly Dante simply would not be contained down the homestretch and into the Pac-12 Tournament, which the Ducks needed to win to get into the NCAA Tournament and they did. He enters the NCAA Tournament after a flawless 12-for-12 shooting performance in the championship game against Colorado. Mind-blowing. Over their final seven regular-season contests, Oregon, as a team, made 56.4 percent of its shots inside the arc. Decent on the glass and occasionally effective from 3-point range, Dana Altman’s group has reached their offensive apex at the most opportune time.
Weaknesses: Defensively, the Ducks are more of the rubber variety. Over the final month of the regular season, they ranked a wretched No. 270 nationally in effective field-goal percentage defense, surrendering a staggering 53.3 percent from two and an equally loathsome 35.7 percent from beyond the arc. The Ducks’ backcourt shot the rock more effectively in the Pac-12 tournament, but in their last eight games they checked in at No. 346 in 3-point percentage offense (27.2). Bottom line, the Ducks are truly kings of inconsistency in myriad ways.
Outlook: Much like the NES classic Duck Hunt, the spiraling Quackers — days before the Pac-12 tourney — were food for snickering dogs. However, a stirring and unforeseen March run allowed them to steal a bid. If Dante, Jermaine Couisnard and Jackson Shelstad continue to sizzle, the storybook ending could have them laughing last.
— Brad Evans
Strengths: Pounding the paint is Oregon’s greatest asset. N’Faly Dante simply would not be contained down the homestretch and into the Pac-12 Tournament, which the Ducks needed to win to get into the NCAA Tournament and they did. He enters the NCAA Tournament after a flawless 12-for-12 shooting performance in the championship game against Colorado. Mind-blowing. Over their final seven regular-season contests, Oregon, as a team, made 56.4 percent of its shots inside the arc. Decent on the glass and occasionally effective from 3-point range, Dana Altman’s group has reached their offensive apex at the most opportune time.
Weaknesses: Defensively, the Ducks are more of the rubber variety. Over the final month of the regular season, they ranked a wretched No. 270 nationally in effective field-goal percentage defense, surrendering a staggering 53.3 percent from two and an equally loathsome 35.7 percent from beyond the arc. The Ducks’ backcourt shot the rock more effectively in the Pac-12 tournament, but in their last eight games they checked in at No. 346 in 3-point percentage offense (27.2). Bottom line, the Ducks are truly kings of inconsistency in myriad ways.
Outlook: Much like the NES classic Duck Hunt, the spiraling Quackers — days before the Pac-12 tourney — were food for snickering dogs. However, a stirring and unforeseen March run allowed them to steal a bid. If Dante, Jermaine Couisnard and Jackson Shelstad continue to sizzle, the storybook ending could have them laughing last.
— Brad Evans
Team in 16 words: Thought to be foie gras, the Ducks flap into the field thanks to a high-flying offense.
Record: 23-11 (12-8 Pac-12)
Coach: Dana Altman (16-15 NCAA Tournament, 1 Final Four)
Player to watch: N’Faly Dante (first-team All-Pac-12)
McNeese
Strengths: Will Wade’s bunch has energy for days. The Cowboys are an exceptional defensive team and thrive off the chaos they create. McNeese is in the top 40 at limiting field goal percentage. The Cowboys’ unrelenting pressure created opponent turnovers on nearly 25 percent of possessions. They’re tenacious on the offensive glass, generating a second chance more than 30 percent of the time. Featuring four players who shoot better than 40 percent from the arc while also converting easy transition opportunities, McNeese is a dynamite offensive club, evident in its 54.9 eFG percent for the season.
Weaknesses: Competitive squads equipped with frontcourt size and a suitable ball handler could carve up the Cowboys. At No. 337 in effective height, according to KenPom, they’re diminutive. Also alarming, McNeese feasted on largely meek competition this year. Among tournament teams, it sports one of the lowest non-conference strength-of-schedules in the field. The Cowboys did emerge victorious against the only top-100 KenPom school they faced this year in a road matchup at VCU.
Outlook: A member of the “little guys,” McNeese nevertheless shouldn’t be glossed over. The Cowboys are pesky, well-drilled and markedly efficient on both ends. If matched against a team with questionable guards, they’ll expose them. The small-ball warriors always pack a sharpened sword. Weigh them heavily to advance a line or two.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Will Wade’s bunch has energy for days. The Cowboys are an exceptional defensive team and thrive off the chaos they create. McNeese is in the top 40 at limiting field goal percentage. The Cowboys’ unrelenting pressure created opponent turnovers on nearly 25 percent of possessions. They’re tenacious on the offensive glass, generating a second chance more than 30 percent of the time. Featuring four players who shoot better than 40 percent from the arc while also converting easy transition opportunities, McNeese is a dynamite offensive club, evident in its 54.9 eFG percent for the season.
Weaknesses: Competitive squads equipped with frontcourt size and a suitable ball handler could carve up the Cowboys. At No. 337 in effective height, according to KenPom, they’re diminutive. Also alarming, McNeese feasted on largely meek competition this year. Among tournament teams, it sports one of the lowest non-conference strength-of-schedules in the field. The Cowboys did emerge victorious against the only top-100 KenPom school they faced this year in a road matchup at VCU.
Outlook: A member of the “little guys,” McNeese nevertheless shouldn’t be glossed over. The Cowboys are pesky, well-drilled and markedly efficient on both ends. If matched against a team with questionable guards, they’ll expose them. The small-ball warriors always pack a sharpened sword. Weigh them heavily to advance a line or two.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Will Wade’s bunch has energy for days. The Cowboys are an exceptional defensive team and thrive off the chaos they create. McNeese is in the top 40 at limiting field goal percentage. The Cowboys’ unrelenting pressure created opponent turnovers on nearly 25 percent of possessions. They’re tenacious on the offensive glass, generating a second chance more than 30 percent of the time. Featuring four players who shoot better than 40 percent from the arc while also converting easy transition opportunities, McNeese is a dynamite offensive club, evident in its 54.9 eFG percent for the season.
Weaknesses: Competitive squads equipped with frontcourt size and a suitable ball handler could carve up the Cowboys. At No. 337 in effective height, according to KenPom, they’re diminutive. Also alarming, McNeese feasted on largely meek competition this year. Among tournament teams, it sports one of the lowest non-conference strength-of-schedules in the field. The Cowboys did emerge victorious against the only top-100 KenPom school they faced this year in a road matchup at VCU.
Outlook: A member of the “little guys,” McNeese nevertheless shouldn’t be glossed over. The Cowboys are pesky, well-drilled and markedly efficient on both ends. If matched against a team with questionable guards, they’ll expose them. The small-ball warriors always pack a sharpened sword. Weigh them heavily to advance a line or two.
—Brad Evans
Team in 16 words: A poor man’s Houston, the Cowboys are scrappy, balanced and buyable as a classic Cinderella.
Record: 30-3 (17-1 Southland)
Coach: Will Wade (2-3 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Shahada Wells (Southland Player of the Year)
Samford
Outlook: Four years ago, coach Bucky McMillan was wrapping up his 12th season at Mountain Brook High School, just outside Birmingham, Ala. Now? He turned the Bulldogs into a Southern Conference powerhouse. They won the last two regular-season titles with Bucky Ball, his playing style that features full-court pressure defense, lots of 3-pointers, and a deep rotation so fresh legs can continually hound opponents.
Samford ranks among the top 20 teams in defensive turnover rate (21.8 percent) and 3-point shooting (39.3 percent), both of which should make them a dark-horse Sweet 16 candidate, but Bucky Ball tends to overwhelm overmatched teams. Via Evanmiya.com’s relative ratings, they’re akin to UMass, Richmond and Syracuse.
Forward Achor Achor made first-team All-Southern Conference, while McMillan was named coach of the year. Guard A.J. Staton-McCray is a great defensive player who also made the all-defensive team.
—Mike Miller
Outlook: Four years ago, coach Bucky McMillan was wrapping up his 12th season at Mountain Brook High School, just outside Birmingham, Ala. Now? He turned the Bulldogs into a Southern Conference powerhouse. They won the last two regular-season titles with Bucky Ball, his playing style that features full-court pressure defense, lots of 3-pointers, and a deep rotation so fresh legs can continually hound opponents.
Samford ranks among the top 20 teams in defensive turnover rate (21.8 percent) and 3-point shooting (39.3 percent), both of which should make them a dark-horse Sweet 16 candidate, but Bucky Ball tends to overwhelm overmatched teams. Via Evanmiya.com’s relative ratings, they’re akin to UMass, Richmond and Syracuse.
Forward Achor Achor made first-team All-Southern Conference, while McMillan was named coach of the year. Guard A.J. Staton-McCray is a great defensive player who also made the all-defensive team.
—Mike Miller
Outlook: Four years ago, coach Bucky McMillan was wrapping up his 12th season at Mountain Brook High School, just outside Birmingham, Ala. Now? He turned the Bulldogs into a Southern Conference powerhouse. They won the last two regular-season titles with Bucky Ball, his playing style that features full-court pressure defense, lots of 3-pointers, and a deep rotation so fresh legs can continually hound opponents.
Samford ranks among the top 20 teams in defensive turnover rate (21.8 percent) and 3-point shooting (39.3 percent), both of which should make them a dark-horse Sweet 16 candidate, but Bucky Ball tends to overwhelm overmatched teams. Via Evanmiya.com’s relative ratings, they’re akin to UMass, Richmond and Syracuse.
Forward Achor Achor made first-team All-Southern Conference, while McMillan was named coach of the year. Guard A.J. Staton-McCray is a great defensive player who also made the all-defensive team.
—Mike Miller
Team in 16 words: “Bucky Ball” is shorthand for Samford’s approach: Up-tempo, pressing and lots of 3-pointers.
Record: 29-5 (15-3 Southern)
Coach: Bucky McMillan (First NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Achor Achor (first-team All-Southern)
Akron
Outlook: The Zips have length, experience and defense. They block shots, defend the 3-point line (12th nationally per KenPom) and aren't overly reliant on one player at the offensive end. They have a senior star in Enrique Freeman, who's improving offensively and routinely dominates the glass, but he's just one of six upperclassmen who won't be fazed by the big moment.
However, their shot selection is often questionable, and the offense can go stale for long stretches. The Zips are still playing in spite of a late-season offensive slump that saw them drop a series of head-scratching games and lose their grip on the MAC regular-season title. Akron wants to play a half-court game, but when shots don't drop, it's hard to keep up with quality opposition.
Freeman and 6-foot-8 senior guard Ali Ali have played in the NCAA Tournament before, and both are gifted enough to dominate in stretches. The defense sets up the offense, and Freeman was a load in the post against MAC competition. Can a bottom-100 team in 3-point shooting make enough treys to advance a game or two? If a few shots drop and Akron gets its tempo, it can hang with most of the field.
—Zac Jackson
Outlook: The Zips have length, experience and defense. They block shots, defend the 3-point line (12th nationally per KenPom) and aren't overly reliant on one player at the offensive end. They have a senior star in Enrique Freeman, who's improving offensively and routinely dominates the glass, but he's just one of six upperclassmen who won't be fazed by the big moment.
However, their shot selection is often questionable, and the offense can go stale for long stretches. The Zips are still playing in spite of a late-season offensive slump that saw them drop a series of head-scratching games and lose their grip on the MAC regular-season title. Akron wants to play a half-court game, but when shots don't drop, it's hard to keep up with quality opposition.
Freeman and 6-foot-8 senior guard Ali Ali have played in the NCAA Tournament before, and both are gifted enough to dominate in stretches. The defense sets up the offense, and Freeman was a load in the post against MAC competition. Can a bottom-100 team in 3-point shooting make enough treys to advance a game or two? If a few shots drop and Akron gets its tempo, it can hang with most of the field.
—Zac Jackson
Outlook: The Zips have length, experience and defense. They block shots, defend the 3-point line (12th nationally per KenPom) and aren't overly reliant on one player at the offensive end. They have a senior star in Enrique Freeman, who's improving offensively and routinely dominates the glass, but he's just one of six upperclassmen who won't be fazed by the big moment.
However, their shot selection is often questionable, and the offense can go stale for long stretches. The Zips are still playing in spite of a late-season offensive slump that saw them drop a series of head-scratching games and lose their grip on the MAC regular-season title. Akron wants to play a half-court game, but when shots don't drop, it's hard to keep up with quality opposition.
Freeman and 6-foot-8 senior guard Ali Ali have played in the NCAA Tournament before, and both are gifted enough to dominate in stretches. The defense sets up the offense, and Freeman was a load in the post against MAC competition. Can a bottom-100 team in 3-point shooting make enough treys to advance a game or two? If a few shots drop and Akron gets its tempo, it can hang with most of the field.
—Zac Jackson
Team in 16 words: Enrique Freeman is a unicorn, and there's enough roster experience that Akron could be a tough out.
Record: 24-10 (13-5 MAC)
Coach: John Groce (4-4 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Enrique Freeman (MAC Player of the Year)
Saint Peter's
Outlook: Two years after putting Jersey City on the map with an Elite Eight run as a No. 15 seed, Saint Peter’s is back — with a new coach and a mostly overhauled roster. Only senior guard Latrell Reid, who played one minute in the four-game tourney run in 2022, remains, and Bashir Mason replaced Shaheen Holloway, who left for Seton Hall, as head coach. Mason, 40, worked as an assistant under Dan Hurley at Wagner before leading the Seahawks from 2012 to 2022.
Two things haven’t changed: The Peacocks’ commitment to slowing the game down and winning with defense. The best defensive team in the MAAC, Saint Peter’s is top 40 in both effective field goal percentage and turnover percentage nationally, per KenPom.
Offensively, Saint Peter’s doesn’t look like a Cinderella. The Peacocks make just 42.4 percent of their 2-point attempts, which ranks 359th of 362 teams, per KenPom. They turn the ball over at a high rate, too. But they make up for it on the offensive glass and at the free-throw line. Six-foot-9 sophomore Mouhamed Sow leads the efforts on the boards — it was his putback at the buzzer that sent Saint Peter’s past top-seeded Quinnipiac in the MAAC semifinals. Sophomore Corey Washington (16.5 points per game) can fill it up; he has 10 20-point games this season.
—Mark Cooper
Outlook: Two years after putting Jersey City on the map with an Elite Eight run as a No. 15 seed, Saint Peter’s is back — with a new coach and a mostly overhauled roster. Only senior guard Latrell Reid, who played one minute in the four-game tourney run in 2022, remains, and Bashir Mason replaced Shaheen Holloway, who left for Seton Hall, as head coach. Mason, 40, worked as an assistant under Dan Hurley at Wagner before leading the Seahawks from 2012 to 2022.
Two things haven’t changed: The Peacocks’ commitment to slowing the game down and winning with defense. The best defensive team in the MAAC, Saint Peter’s is top 40 in both effective field goal percentage and turnover percentage nationally, per KenPom.
Offensively, Saint Peter’s doesn’t look like a Cinderella. The Peacocks make just 42.4 percent of their 2-point attempts, which ranks 359th of 362 teams, per KenPom. They turn the ball over at a high rate, too. But they make up for it on the offensive glass and at the free-throw line. Six-foot-9 sophomore Mouhamed Sow leads the efforts on the boards — it was his putback at the buzzer that sent Saint Peter’s past top-seeded Quinnipiac in the MAAC semifinals. Sophomore Corey Washington (16.5 points per game) can fill it up; he has 10 20-point games this season.
—Mark Cooper
Outlook: Two years after putting Jersey City on the map with an Elite Eight run as a No. 15 seed, Saint Peter’s is back — with a new coach and a mostly overhauled roster. Only senior guard Latrell Reid, who played one minute in the four-game tourney run in 2022, remains, and Bashir Mason replaced Shaheen Holloway, who left for Seton Hall, as head coach. Mason, 40, worked as an assistant under Dan Hurley at Wagner before leading the Seahawks from 2012 to 2022.
Two things haven’t changed: The Peacocks’ commitment to slowing the game down and winning with defense. The best defensive team in the MAAC, Saint Peter’s is top 40 in both effective field goal percentage and turnover percentage nationally, per KenPom.
Offensively, Saint Peter’s doesn’t look like a Cinderella. The Peacocks make just 42.4 percent of their 2-point attempts, which ranks 359th of 362 teams, per KenPom. They turn the ball over at a high rate, too. But they make up for it on the offensive glass and at the free-throw line. Six-foot-9 sophomore Mouhamed Sow leads the efforts on the boards — it was his putback at the buzzer that sent Saint Peter’s past top-seeded Quinnipiac in the MAAC semifinals. Sophomore Corey Washington (16.5 points per game) can fill it up; he has 10 20-point games this season.
—Mark Cooper
Team in 16 words: Saint Peter’s probably won’t be a popular pick — but then again, it wasn’t in 2022, either.
Record: 19-13 (12-8 MAAC)
Coach: Bashir Mason (First NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Corey Washington (first-team All-MAAC)
Grambling State
Outlook: With blowout non-conference losses to quality opposition in Iowa State, Florida, Washington State, Drake and Colorado, the Tigers didn’t exactly apply the needle to the record outside of league play. The daunting schedule did propel Donte Jackson’s club to in-conference heights, but the reality of November/December is about to rear its unfortunate head.
For a team that ranks No. 319 nationally in 3-point scoring and is highly reliant on free-throw conversions, squaring off against a formidable high-major school is a daunting task. Apologies, Tigers, but another shellacking is on the immediate horizon.
—Brad Evans
Outlook: With blowout non-conference losses to quality opposition in Iowa State, Florida, Washington State, Drake and Colorado, the Tigers didn’t exactly apply the needle to the record outside of league play. The daunting schedule did propel Donte Jackson’s club to in-conference heights, but the reality of November/December is about to rear its unfortunate head.
For a team that ranks No. 319 nationally in 3-point scoring and is highly reliant on free-throw conversions, squaring off against a formidable high-major school is a daunting task. Apologies, Tigers, but another shellacking is on the immediate horizon.
—Brad Evans
Outlook: With blowout non-conference losses to quality opposition in Iowa State, Florida, Washington State, Drake and Colorado, the Tigers didn’t exactly apply the needle to the record outside of league play. The daunting schedule did propel Donte Jackson’s club to in-conference heights, but the reality of November/December is about to rear its unfortunate head.
For a team that ranks No. 319 nationally in 3-point scoring and is highly reliant on free-throw conversions, squaring off against a formidable high-major school is a daunting task. Apologies, Tigers, but another shellacking is on the immediate horizon.
—Brad Evans
Team in 16 words: The SWAC has won seven NCAA Tournament games; the Tigers are unlikely to increase that number.
Record: 20-14 (14-4 SWAC)
Coach: Donte Jackson (First NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Kintavious Dozier (first-team All-SWAC)
Montana State
Outlook: Despite their questionable outward appearance, the Bobcats do bare their teeth in multiple categories. They finished the regular season teetering in the top 100 in effective field-goal percentage offense.
Most notably, they drill a robust 36.4 percent from 3-point range. In fact, thanks to the perimeter accuracy of Robert Ford III (42.6 percent), Eddie Turner III (38.4), Tyler Patterson (38.4) and Brian Goracke (36.1), over 34 percent of State’s points come on triples. They’re also laudable defensively along the arc (No. 100 nationally) and forcing turnovers (top 50 in steals per game).
However, oversized opponents with reliable frontcourt pieces pose a major challenge, evidenced by their 300-plus national ranking in two-point percentage defense and subpar rebounding outputs. Still, among the lower seeds, Matt Logie’s bunch own the most Fairleigh Dickinson-like upside.
—Brad Evans
Outlook: Despite their questionable outward appearance, the Bobcats do bare their teeth in multiple categories. They finished the regular season teetering in the top 100 in effective field-goal percentage offense.
Most notably, they drill a robust 36.4 percent from 3-point range. In fact, thanks to the perimeter accuracy of Robert Ford III (42.6 percent), Eddie Turner III (38.4), Tyler Patterson (38.4) and Brian Goracke (36.1), over 34 percent of State’s points come on triples. They’re also laudable defensively along the arc (No. 100 nationally) and forcing turnovers (top 50 in steals per game).
However, oversized opponents with reliable frontcourt pieces pose a major challenge, evidenced by their 300-plus national ranking in two-point percentage defense and subpar rebounding outputs. Still, among the lower seeds, Matt Logie’s bunch own the most Fairleigh Dickinson-like upside.
—Brad Evans
Outlook: Despite their questionable outward appearance, the Bobcats do bare their teeth in multiple categories. They finished the regular season teetering in the top 100 in effective field-goal percentage offense.
Most notably, they drill a robust 36.4 percent from 3-point range. In fact, thanks to the perimeter accuracy of Robert Ford III (42.6 percent), Eddie Turner III (38.4), Tyler Patterson (38.4) and Brian Goracke (36.1), over 34 percent of State’s points come on triples. They’re also laudable defensively along the arc (No. 100 nationally) and forcing turnovers (top 50 in steals per game).
However, oversized opponents with reliable frontcourt pieces pose a major challenge, evidenced by their 300-plus national ranking in two-point percentage defense and subpar rebounding outputs. Still, among the lower seeds, Matt Logie’s bunch own the most Fairleigh Dickinson-like upside.
—Brad Evans
Team in 16 words: Seizing the Big Sky title from the favored Montana Grizzlies, Montana State improbably dances.
Record: 17-17 (9-9 Big Sky)
Coach: Matt Logie (First NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Robert Ford III (first-team All-Big Sky)
Contributors: Jayna Bardahl, Paul Bourdett, Gene Clemons, Mark Cooper, Rob Dauster, Brad Evans, Jeff Goodman, Stewart Mandel, Marc Mazzoni, Mike Miller, Joe Rexrode, Mark Ross, Eric Single, Mark Ross
About The Gaming Juice: From the mind of award-winning writer, FSWA Hall of Famer, show creator, producer, booming on-air voice and sporadically profitable bettor Brad Evans is The Gaming Juice. Covering the spectrum of sports — CBK, MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL and more — from a betting and fantasy perspective, The Gaming Juice is a site for gamers by a gamer. It’s built around accessibility, community and experiences. Best of all, FREE picks and pieces are posted daily. If you’re seeking engaging, entertaining and transparent content, give The Gaming Juice a squeeze and sign up for a FREE membership today. Get SEDUCED BY THE JUICE at TheGamingJuice.com.
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