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The West Regional of the NCAA Tournament has a resurrected No. 1 seed in North Carolina, a team that missed the 2023 tournament for the first time in over a decade. They have one of the country’s most elite guards in RJ Davis, the ACC Player of the Year, and are coming into this tournament with something to prove.
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But if you’re looking for a dark-horse champion, our analysts say pay attention to No. 3 Baylor. The Bears have what it takes to reach the Final Four or even clinch the championship if their defense is on.
For Cinderella play, take a deeper look at No. 11 New Mexico (playing Clemson in the first round) and No. 12 Grand Canyon (playing Saint Mary’s in the first round). The Lobos have a backcourt capable of carrying them into the second weekend for Sweet 16 play, and Grand Canyon could pull it off if Saint Mary’s has any regression to the sluggishness we saw entering December.
Dig into all that and more below in our previews for all of the teams in the West, written by analysts from The Athletic, Brad Evans’ The Gaming Juice, and The Field of 68. “Sweet 16 projected chance” is the percentage chance that Austin Mock’s model gives a team to make the Sweet 16. “Final Four projected chance” is the percentage chance that his model gives a team to make the Final Four. See his full projections here.
Plus:
- Check out all our region previews: East | Midwest | South
- Region previews too specific? We have the capsules for all 68 teams here
- Our March Madness hub with all our tourney coverage
North Carolina
Strengths: The Tar Heels have one of the elite guards in the country in RJ Davis — who has thrived with the departure of Caleb Love. Armando Bacot has a decreased offensive role, and he’s accepted it. Two transfers — Harrison Ingram (Stanford), Cormac Ryan (Notre Dame) — and reclassified freshman point guard Elliot Cadeau have made the Tar Heels legit Final Four contenders again.
Weaknesses: Bacot hasn’t been nearly as effective this season on the offensive end, and tends to struggle against length and athleticism. While the Tar Heels have been improved defensively, the backcourt is small — and Cadeau is still a freshman who isn’t much of a threat to shoot it.
Outlook: This team has chemistry, which was clearly lacking a year ago. They have floor-spacing with the addition of Ingram and Ryan. Davis uses his bench this year, and they have a guy who can go get a basket — and is efficient in doing so. This is a group that came into the season with something to prove, and they have done so — with improved defense, winning on the road and claiming the ACC regular-season title.
—Jeff Goodman
Strengths: The Tar Heels have one of the elite guards in the country in RJ Davis — who has thrived with the departure of Caleb Love. Armando Bacot has a decreased offensive role, and he’s accepted it. Two transfers — Harrison Ingram (Stanford), Cormac Ryan (Notre Dame) — and reclassified freshman point guard Elliot Cadeau have made the Tar Heels legit Final Four contenders again.
Weaknesses: Bacot hasn’t been nearly as effective this season on the offensive end, and tends to struggle against length and athleticism. While the Tar Heels have been improved defensively, the backcourt is small — and Cadeau is still a freshman who isn’t much of a threat to shoot it.
Outlook: This team has chemistry, which was clearly lacking a year ago. They have floor-spacing with the addition of Ingram and Ryan. Davis uses his bench this year, and they have a guy who can go get a basket — and is efficient in doing so. This is a group that came into the season with something to prove, and they have done so — with improved defense, winning on the road and claiming the ACC regular-season title.
—Jeff Goodman
Strengths: The Tar Heels have one of the elite guards in the country in RJ Davis — who has thrived with the departure of Caleb Love. Armando Bacot has a decreased offensive role, and he’s accepted it. Two transfers — Harrison Ingram (Stanford), Cormac Ryan (Notre Dame) — and reclassified freshman point guard Elliot Cadeau have made the Tar Heels legit Final Four contenders again.
Weaknesses: Bacot hasn’t been nearly as effective this season on the offensive end, and tends to struggle against length and athleticism. While the Tar Heels have been improved defensively, the backcourt is small — and Cadeau is still a freshman who isn’t much of a threat to shoot it.
Outlook: This team has chemistry, which was clearly lacking a year ago. They have floor-spacing with the addition of Ingram and Ryan. Davis uses his bench this year, and they have a guy who can go get a basket — and is efficient in doing so. This is a group that came into the season with something to prove, and they have done so — with improved defense, winning on the road and claiming the ACC regular-season title.
—Jeff Goodman
Team in 16 words: The transfer portal and go-to guy RJ Davis have given the Tar Heels new life.
Record: 27-7 (17-3 ACC)
Coach: Hubert Davis (5-1 in NCAA Tournament, 1 Final Four)
Player to watch: RJ Davis (ACC Player of the Year)
Arizona
Strengths: The Wildcats have been a terrific offensive team in all three seasons under Tommy Lloyd. Caleb Love can be erratic, but he transferred in from North Carolina and filled a major need of a guard who can go get a bucket. Arizona has no shortage of experience, and added another transfer in Keshad Johnson who has Final Four experience from a year ago at San Diego State.
Weaknesses: When point guard Kylan Boswell doesn’t play well, it usually results in a loss for the ‘Cats. In their eight losses, Boswell shot 21 percent from the field and averaged 4.8 points per game. And Arizona doesn’t have another true point guard when Boswell is struggling. There’s also the concern of when Love struggles, he can really struggle.
Outlook: Lloyd has a team capable of getting to the Final Four, but it depends on the guard tandem of Love and Boswell. If they play well, Arizona can beat anyone in the country because Pelle Larsson is a terrific role player, Johnson is a terrific defender and Oumar Ballo is one of the better big men in the country. But it’s truly up to the consistency of Love and Boswell.
—Jeff Goodman
Strengths: The Wildcats have been a terrific offensive team in all three seasons under Tommy Lloyd. Caleb Love can be erratic, but he transferred in from North Carolina and filled a major need of a guard who can go get a bucket. Arizona has no shortage of experience, and added another transfer in Keshad Johnson who has Final Four experience from a year ago at San Diego State.
Weaknesses: When point guard Kylan Boswell doesn’t play well, it usually results in a loss for the ‘Cats. In their eight losses, Boswell shot 21 percent from the field and averaged 4.8 points per game. And Arizona doesn’t have another true point guard when Boswell is struggling. There’s also the concern of when Love struggles, he can really struggle.
Outlook: Lloyd has a team capable of getting to the Final Four, but it depends on the guard tandem of Love and Boswell. If they play well, Arizona can beat anyone in the country because Pelle Larsson is a terrific role player, Johnson is a terrific defender and Oumar Ballo is one of the better big men in the country. But it’s truly up to the consistency of Love and Boswell.
—Jeff Goodman
Strengths: The Wildcats have been a terrific offensive team in all three seasons under Tommy Lloyd. Caleb Love can be erratic, but he transferred in from North Carolina and filled a major need of a guard who can go get a bucket. Arizona has no shortage of experience, and added another transfer in Keshad Johnson who has Final Four experience from a year ago at San Diego State.
Weaknesses: When point guard Kylan Boswell doesn’t play well, it usually results in a loss for the ‘Cats. In their eight losses, Boswell shot 21 percent from the field and averaged 4.8 points per game. And Arizona doesn’t have another true point guard when Boswell is struggling. There’s also the concern of when Love struggles, he can really struggle.
Outlook: Lloyd has a team capable of getting to the Final Four, but it depends on the guard tandem of Love and Boswell. If they play well, Arizona can beat anyone in the country because Pelle Larsson is a terrific role player, Johnson is a terrific defender and Oumar Ballo is one of the better big men in the country. But it’s truly up to the consistency of Love and Boswell.
—Jeff Goodman
Team in 16 words: The most balanced team in Tommy Lloyd’s tenure. Can score, have a go-to guy, are improved defensively.
Record: 25-8 (15-5 Pac-12)
Coach: Tommy Lloyd (2-2 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Caleb Love (Pac-12 Player of the Year)
Baylor
Strengths: Scoring. Baylor ranks among the national leaders in 3-point shooting (39.4 percent) and inside the arc (53.3 percent), and they’re also among the top 20 teams in getting to the free-throw line. And when the Bears miss? They grab 35 percent of their misses, 24th in the country.
Weaknesses: The Bears show flashes of defense, especially when freshman big man Yves Missi is active in the middle. But when he’s off the court (and even when he’s on) they’re soft in the middle, and rarely force any turnovers.
Outlook: If you’re looking for a dark-horse champion, Baylor is it. Half of the Bears’ losses were either in overtime or by a single possession. They feature two future NBA lottery picks in Missi and Ja’Kobe Walter; Jalen Bridges is an experienced, versatile forward with size; and Jayden Nunn might be the most underrated scorer in the Big 12. Plus, Scott Drew won it all just three years ago. The difference between that championship team and this one is that this year the Bears lack a lock-down defender. Otherwise, everything else is pretty much the same.
—Mike Miller
Strengths: Scoring. Baylor ranks among the national leaders in 3-point shooting (39.4 percent) and inside the arc (53.3 percent), and they’re also among the top 20 teams in getting to the free-throw line. And when the Bears miss? They grab 35 percent of their misses, 24th in the country.
Weaknesses: The Bears show flashes of defense, especially when freshman big man Yves Missi is active in the middle. But when he’s off the court (and even when he’s on) they’re soft in the middle, and rarely force any turnovers.
Outlook: If you’re looking for a dark-horse champion, Baylor is it. Half of the Bears’ losses were either in overtime or by a single possession. They feature two future NBA lottery picks in Missi and Ja’Kobe Walter; Jalen Bridges is an experienced, versatile forward with size; and Jayden Nunn might be the most underrated scorer in the Big 12. Plus, Scott Drew won it all just three years ago. The difference between that championship team and this one is that this year the Bears lack a lock-down defender. Otherwise, everything else is pretty much the same.
—Mike Miller
Strengths: Scoring. Baylor ranks among the national leaders in 3-point shooting (39.4 percent) and inside the arc (53.3 percent), and they’re also among the top 20 teams in getting to the free-throw line. And when the Bears miss? They grab 35 percent of their misses, 24th in the country.
Weaknesses: The Bears show flashes of defense, especially when freshman big man Yves Missi is active in the middle. But when he’s off the court (and even when he’s on) they’re soft in the middle, and rarely force any turnovers.
Outlook: If you’re looking for a dark-horse champion, Baylor is it. Half of the Bears’ losses were either in overtime or by a single possession. They feature two future NBA lottery picks in Missi and Ja’Kobe Walter; Jalen Bridges is an experienced, versatile forward with size; and Jayden Nunn might be the most underrated scorer in the Big 12. Plus, Scott Drew won it all just three years ago. The difference between that championship team and this one is that this year the Bears lack a lock-down defender. Otherwise, everything else is pretty much the same.
—Mike Miller
Team in 16 words: Talented enough to reach the Final Four — especially if the defense can get a stop.
Record: 23-10 (11-7 Big 12)
Coach: Scott Drew (19-10 in NCAA Tournament, 1 Final Four, 1 national title)
Player to watch: RayJ Dennis (second-team All-Big 12)
Alabama
Strengths: Alabama can score, but this should not surprise anyone paying attention. Not only have the Crimson Tide registered a top-three adjusted offensive efficiency rating on KenPom, they also happen to play at the fastest pace of any high-major team. It’s a style specifically designed by Nate Oats to lean into the math: the most efficient way to score is to shoot threes, layups and free throws only. Guards Mark Sears and Aaron Estrada are surrounded by a handful of 3-point snipers (Latrell Wrightsell Jr., Rylan Griffen, Sam Walters) and athletic bigs.
Weaknesses: The problem? Alabama is not interested in playing defense. One of the most impactful early-entry decisions last summer was that of Charles Bediako, a 7-foot shot-blocker who left school with two seasons of eligibility remaining. Without him, Alabama has gone from a top-three defense in the sport to a team that ranked just outside the top 100 in the regular season. As Oats himself put it, “everybody knows we don’t really guard at this point.” It’s a combination of a lack of rim protection and a lack of effort.
Outlook: I want to get excited about this Alabama crew, but it’s very difficult to buy in on the Crimson Tide as a threat to get to the Final Four when they have to rely on trying to score in the triple digits to beat the best teams in the country. When you live by the three… eventually you will die by the three.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Alabama can score, but this should not surprise anyone paying attention. Not only have the Crimson Tide registered a top-three adjusted offensive efficiency rating on KenPom, they also happen to play at the fastest pace of any high-major team. It’s a style specifically designed by Nate Oats to lean into the math: the most efficient way to score is to shoot threes, layups and free throws only. Guards Mark Sears and Aaron Estrada are surrounded by a handful of 3-point snipers (Latrell Wrightsell Jr., Rylan Griffen, Sam Walters) and athletic bigs.
Weaknesses: The problem? Alabama is not interested in playing defense. One of the most impactful early-entry decisions last summer was that of Charles Bediako, a 7-foot shot-blocker who left school with two seasons of eligibility remaining. Without him, Alabama has gone from a top-three defense in the sport to a team that ranked just outside the top 100 in the regular season. As Oats himself put it, “everybody knows we don’t really guard at this point.” It’s a combination of a lack of rim protection and a lack of effort.
Outlook: I want to get excited about this Alabama crew, but it’s very difficult to buy in on the Crimson Tide as a threat to get to the Final Four when they have to rely on trying to score in the triple digits to beat the best teams in the country. When you live by the three… eventually you will die by the three.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: Alabama can score, but this should not surprise anyone paying attention. Not only have the Crimson Tide registered a top-three adjusted offensive efficiency rating on KenPom, they also happen to play at the fastest pace of any high-major team. It’s a style specifically designed by Nate Oats to lean into the math: the most efficient way to score is to shoot threes, layups and free throws only. Guards Mark Sears and Aaron Estrada are surrounded by a handful of 3-point snipers (Latrell Wrightsell Jr., Rylan Griffen, Sam Walters) and athletic bigs.
Weaknesses: The problem? Alabama is not interested in playing defense. One of the most impactful early-entry decisions last summer was that of Charles Bediako, a 7-foot shot-blocker who left school with two seasons of eligibility remaining. Without him, Alabama has gone from a top-three defense in the sport to a team that ranked just outside the top 100 in the regular season. As Oats himself put it, “everybody knows we don’t really guard at this point.” It’s a combination of a lack of rim protection and a lack of effort.
Outlook: I want to get excited about this Alabama crew, but it’s very difficult to buy in on the Crimson Tide as a threat to get to the Final Four when they have to rely on trying to score in the triple digits to beat the best teams in the country. When you live by the three… eventually you will die by the three.
—Rob Dauster
Team in 16 words: Alabama plays like an NBA team: 3s and layups, nothing mid-range and defense is optional.
Record: 21-11 (13-5 SEC)
Coach: Nate Oats (6-6 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Mark Sears (first-team All-SEC)
Saint Mary's
Strengths: “Three and D” is what many NBA teams subscribe to, and the Gaels methodically employ similar tactics without the world-class athletes. Saint Mary’s typically dictates a slower half-court game. That deliberate approach, combined with the Gaels stifling defense (top 10 in effective field goal percentage), ratchets up opponent frustration. The Gaels’ rebounding chops only exacerbate the anguish — they’re top 10 nationally in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. They also blitz the basket consistently from outside. Alex Ducas, Aidan Mahaney and Augustas Marčiulionis are all threats from beyond the arc.
Weaknesses: Teams with athletic downhill guards can cause problems for the Gaels, as we witnessed in their March 2 matchup against Gonzaga. Saint Mary’s gets uncomfortable with speed and direct attacks off the bounce. With non-conference losses to San Diego State, Xavier, Utah and Boise State, some by substantial margins, the Gaels have yet to show they can hang with formidable competition outside the WCC. They’re also poor at making free throws (67.4 percent).
Outlook: Taking liberty with a Dickens’ classic, it was a Tale of Two Seasons for Saint Mary’s. If it resembles the team that clubbed competitors in January and February, Saint Mary’s will make the Sweet 16 for the third time in school history. If not, bitterness will set in.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: “Three and D” is what many NBA teams subscribe to, and the Gaels methodically employ similar tactics without the world-class athletes. Saint Mary’s typically dictates a slower half-court game. That deliberate approach, combined with the Gaels stifling defense (top 10 in effective field goal percentage), ratchets up opponent frustration. The Gaels’ rebounding chops only exacerbate the anguish — they’re top 10 nationally in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. They also blitz the basket consistently from outside. Alex Ducas, Aidan Mahaney and Augustas Marčiulionis are all threats from beyond the arc.
Weaknesses: Teams with athletic downhill guards can cause problems for the Gaels, as we witnessed in their March 2 matchup against Gonzaga. Saint Mary’s gets uncomfortable with speed and direct attacks off the bounce. With non-conference losses to San Diego State, Xavier, Utah and Boise State, some by substantial margins, the Gaels have yet to show they can hang with formidable competition outside the WCC. They’re also poor at making free throws (67.4 percent).
Outlook: Taking liberty with a Dickens’ classic, it was a Tale of Two Seasons for Saint Mary’s. If it resembles the team that clubbed competitors in January and February, Saint Mary’s will make the Sweet 16 for the third time in school history. If not, bitterness will set in.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: “Three and D” is what many NBA teams subscribe to, and the Gaels methodically employ similar tactics without the world-class athletes. Saint Mary’s typically dictates a slower half-court game. That deliberate approach, combined with the Gaels stifling defense (top 10 in effective field goal percentage), ratchets up opponent frustration. The Gaels’ rebounding chops only exacerbate the anguish — they’re top 10 nationally in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. They also blitz the basket consistently from outside. Alex Ducas, Aidan Mahaney and Augustas Marčiulionis are all threats from beyond the arc.
Weaknesses: Teams with athletic downhill guards can cause problems for the Gaels, as we witnessed in their March 2 matchup against Gonzaga. Saint Mary’s gets uncomfortable with speed and direct attacks off the bounce. With non-conference losses to San Diego State, Xavier, Utah and Boise State, some by substantial margins, the Gaels have yet to show they can hang with formidable competition outside the WCC. They’re also poor at making free throws (67.4 percent).
Outlook: Taking liberty with a Dickens’ classic, it was a Tale of Two Seasons for Saint Mary’s. If it resembles the team that clubbed competitors in January and February, Saint Mary’s will make the Sweet 16 for the third time in school history. If not, bitterness will set in.
—Brad Evans
Team in 16 words: Lifeless entering December, the Gaels have revived thanks to a stellar defense and strong 3-point shooting.
Record: 26-7 (15-1 WCC)
Coach: Randy Bennett (6-9 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Augustas Marčiulionis (WCC Player of the Year)
Clemson
Strengths: Like Brad Brownell’s best team at Clemson — the 2017-18 squad that reached the Sweet 16 — these Tigers can rebound, and that trait can be an equalizer, as bona fide contenders like North Carolina and Alabama learned during the regular season. Ian Schieffelin (9.6 rebounds per game during the regular season) and PJ Hall (6.8) set the tone on the glass, and Chase Hunter and Joseph Girard III make up a veteran starting backcourt.
Weaknesses: After Hall, the Tigers’ leading scorer and versatile man in the middle, the Tigers don’t have a surplus of offensive options — although Girard is never too far away from a hot streak from deep. If they run into an opponent with a bombs-away approach, as Boston College brought in an ACC tourney blowout upset, keeping pace is no guarantee. Is the fact that Clemson is 0-5 in games decided by three points or fewer since mid-December a product of bad luck … or a harbinger of March heartbreak?
Outlook: Clemson’s nightmare 3-5 January dropped it off the national radar, but the team that recovered in the ensuing six weeks to secure a bid looks like one you don’t have to worry about no-showing — at least, it did, until last week’s early ACC Tournament exit. Do the Tigers do anything well enough (besides make their free throws, at a sterling 79.0 percent clip) to talk anyone into predicting a deep run?
—Eric Single
Strengths: Like Brad Brownell’s best team at Clemson — the 2017-18 squad that reached the Sweet 16 — these Tigers can rebound, and that trait can be an equalizer, as bona fide contenders like North Carolina and Alabama learned during the regular season. Ian Schieffelin (9.6 rebounds per game during the regular season) and PJ Hall (6.8) set the tone on the glass, and Chase Hunter and Joseph Girard III make up a veteran starting backcourt.
Weaknesses: After Hall, the Tigers’ leading scorer and versatile man in the middle, the Tigers don’t have a surplus of offensive options — although Girard is never too far away from a hot streak from deep. If they run into an opponent with a bombs-away approach, as Boston College brought in an ACC tourney blowout upset, keeping pace is no guarantee. Is the fact that Clemson is 0-5 in games decided by three points or fewer since mid-December a product of bad luck … or a harbinger of March heartbreak?
Outlook: Clemson’s nightmare 3-5 January dropped it off the national radar, but the team that recovered in the ensuing six weeks to secure a bid looks like one you don’t have to worry about no-showing — at least, it did, until last week’s early ACC Tournament exit. Do the Tigers do anything well enough (besides make their free throws, at a sterling 79.0 percent clip) to talk anyone into predicting a deep run?
—Eric Single
Strengths: Like Brad Brownell’s best team at Clemson — the 2017-18 squad that reached the Sweet 16 — these Tigers can rebound, and that trait can be an equalizer, as bona fide contenders like North Carolina and Alabama learned during the regular season. Ian Schieffelin (9.6 rebounds per game during the regular season) and PJ Hall (6.8) set the tone on the glass, and Chase Hunter and Joseph Girard III make up a veteran starting backcourt.
Weaknesses: After Hall, the Tigers’ leading scorer and versatile man in the middle, the Tigers don’t have a surplus of offensive options — although Girard is never too far away from a hot streak from deep. If they run into an opponent with a bombs-away approach, as Boston College brought in an ACC tourney blowout upset, keeping pace is no guarantee. Is the fact that Clemson is 0-5 in games decided by three points or fewer since mid-December a product of bad luck … or a harbinger of March heartbreak?
Outlook: Clemson’s nightmare 3-5 January dropped it off the national radar, but the team that recovered in the ensuing six weeks to secure a bid looks like one you don’t have to worry about no-showing — at least, it did, until last week’s early ACC Tournament exit. Do the Tigers do anything well enough (besides make their free throws, at a sterling 79.0 percent clip) to talk anyone into predicting a deep run?
—Eric Single
Team in 16 words: The Tigers can battle anyone for 40 minutes. But how much is left in the tank?
Record: 21-11 (11-9 ACC)
Coach: Brad Brownell (3-6 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: PJ Hall (first-team All-ACC)
Dayton
Strengths: Dayton can score the basketball. Over its final 10 regular-season games, the Flyers ranked in the top five in effective field-goal percentage offense. DaRon Holmes II is a mauler in the post. His Gumby-like length, pivot moves and athleticism explain why he’s racked up dozens of dunks this year. He also nets 38.5 percent from distance. With Holmes flanked by Koby Brea (49.2 percent on 3-pointers), Kobe Elvis (37.5 percent) and Nate Santos (42.7 percent), Dayton is undoubtedly a dynamite offensive team. The Flyers limit opponents’ second-chance opportunities.
Weaknesses: It’s too bad Obi Toppin is no longer wearing the Flyers red. Defensively, Anthony Grant’s group is a liability. Coming unraveled in the category down the regular-season homestretch, the Flyers ranked poorly nationally in effective field-goal percentage defense. Challenging shots along the perimeter wasn’t especially problematic, but competitors gashed them on near-proximity opportunities. The Flyers turned the ball over on 15.8 percent of their possessions this season.
Outlook: Dayton stands at No. 40 in all-time wins; it’s a school with a rich basketball history. However, the Flyers have one Sweet 16 appearance (2014) since the days when parachute pants were fashionable. Due to defensive inadequacies, turnover problems, absent depth and a relatively unchallenging schedule, they’re unlikely to survive the first weekend, no matter how unrestrainable Holmes may be.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Dayton can score the basketball. Over its final 10 regular-season games, the Flyers ranked in the top five in effective field-goal percentage offense. DaRon Holmes II is a mauler in the post. His Gumby-like length, pivot moves and athleticism explain why he’s racked up dozens of dunks this year. He also nets 38.5 percent from distance. With Holmes flanked by Koby Brea (49.2 percent on 3-pointers), Kobe Elvis (37.5 percent) and Nate Santos (42.7 percent), Dayton is undoubtedly a dynamite offensive team. The Flyers limit opponents’ second-chance opportunities.
Weaknesses: It’s too bad Obi Toppin is no longer wearing the Flyers red. Defensively, Anthony Grant’s group is a liability. Coming unraveled in the category down the regular-season homestretch, the Flyers ranked poorly nationally in effective field-goal percentage defense. Challenging shots along the perimeter wasn’t especially problematic, but competitors gashed them on near-proximity opportunities. The Flyers turned the ball over on 15.8 percent of their possessions this season.
Outlook: Dayton stands at No. 40 in all-time wins; it’s a school with a rich basketball history. However, the Flyers have one Sweet 16 appearance (2014) since the days when parachute pants were fashionable. Due to defensive inadequacies, turnover problems, absent depth and a relatively unchallenging schedule, they’re unlikely to survive the first weekend, no matter how unrestrainable Holmes may be.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Dayton can score the basketball. Over its final 10 regular-season games, the Flyers ranked in the top five in effective field-goal percentage offense. DaRon Holmes II is a mauler in the post. His Gumby-like length, pivot moves and athleticism explain why he’s racked up dozens of dunks this year. He also nets 38.5 percent from distance. With Holmes flanked by Koby Brea (49.2 percent on 3-pointers), Kobe Elvis (37.5 percent) and Nate Santos (42.7 percent), Dayton is undoubtedly a dynamite offensive team. The Flyers limit opponents’ second-chance opportunities.
Weaknesses: It’s too bad Obi Toppin is no longer wearing the Flyers red. Defensively, Anthony Grant’s group is a liability. Coming unraveled in the category down the regular-season homestretch, the Flyers ranked poorly nationally in effective field-goal percentage defense. Challenging shots along the perimeter wasn’t especially problematic, but competitors gashed them on near-proximity opportunities. The Flyers turned the ball over on 15.8 percent of their possessions this season.
Outlook: Dayton stands at No. 40 in all-time wins; it’s a school with a rich basketball history. However, the Flyers have one Sweet 16 appearance (2014) since the days when parachute pants were fashionable. Due to defensive inadequacies, turnover problems, absent depth and a relatively unchallenging schedule, they’re unlikely to survive the first weekend, no matter how unrestrainable Holmes may be.
—Brad Evans
Team in 16 words: With an uncontainable big man in DaRon Holmes and a soaring offense, Dayton possesses disruptive characteristics.
Record: 24-7 (14-4 A-10)
Coach: Anthony Grant (1-3 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: DaRon Holmes II (Atlantic 10 co-Player of the Year)
Mississippi State
Strengths: The Bulldogs defend at a high level, top 25 in the nation in defensive efficiency, and they have length and depth. Offensively, this team has solid numbers and is middling in terms of tempo. It all revolves around senior big man Tolu Smith — a powerful 6-foot-11, 245-pound player who demands double teams — and freshman sensation Josh Hubbard. He’s only 5-foot-10, but he's a solid 190 pounds and a shooter with limitless range and no fear. When he’s chased off the 3-point line, he goes for crafty mid-range shots. Those two players drive everything.
Weaknesses: If an opponent has a big man with the size and quickness to wall off Smith and make him shoot over the top, the Bulldogs can get into a rut. Mississippi State shoots poorly from long range as a team, and while supporting players such as Cameron Matthews, Dashawn Davis and D.J. Jeffries can score, the only consistent producers are Smith and Hubbard. Too many non-shooters sometimes take jump shots, and the Bulldogs can be faulty at the foul line as they only make 67 percent as a team.
Outlook: Under coach Chris Jans, Mississippi State should make a regular appearance in the NCAA Tournament — after the program failed to earn bids in 12 of the 13 seasons before he arrived. This team is good enough to open with a victory and earn a shot at one of the tournament’s big boys. Smith and Hubbard average 33 points a game combined, and if they can push that to the 40-45 range with smart offensive play from teammates, they can make things interesting against anyone.
—Joe Rexrode
Strengths: The Bulldogs defend at a high level, top 25 in the nation in defensive efficiency, and they have length and depth. Offensively, this team has solid numbers and is middling in terms of tempo. It all revolves around senior big man Tolu Smith — a powerful 6-foot-11, 245-pound player who demands double teams — and freshman sensation Josh Hubbard. He’s only 5-foot-10, but he's a solid 190 pounds and a shooter with limitless range and no fear. When he’s chased off the 3-point line, he goes for crafty mid-range shots. Those two players drive everything.
Weaknesses: If an opponent has a big man with the size and quickness to wall off Smith and make him shoot over the top, the Bulldogs can get into a rut. Mississippi State shoots poorly from long range as a team, and while supporting players such as Cameron Matthews, Dashawn Davis and D.J. Jeffries can score, the only consistent producers are Smith and Hubbard. Too many non-shooters sometimes take jump shots, and the Bulldogs can be faulty at the foul line as they only make 67 percent as a team.
Outlook: Under coach Chris Jans, Mississippi State should make a regular appearance in the NCAA Tournament — after the program failed to earn bids in 12 of the 13 seasons before he arrived. This team is good enough to open with a victory and earn a shot at one of the tournament’s big boys. Smith and Hubbard average 33 points a game combined, and if they can push that to the 40-45 range with smart offensive play from teammates, they can make things interesting against anyone.
—Joe Rexrode
Strengths: The Bulldogs defend at a high level, top 25 in the nation in defensive efficiency, and they have length and depth. Offensively, this team has solid numbers and is middling in terms of tempo. It all revolves around senior big man Tolu Smith — a powerful 6-foot-11, 245-pound player who demands double teams — and freshman sensation Josh Hubbard. He’s only 5-foot-10, but he's a solid 190 pounds and a shooter with limitless range and no fear. When he’s chased off the 3-point line, he goes for crafty mid-range shots. Those two players drive everything.
Weaknesses: If an opponent has a big man with the size and quickness to wall off Smith and make him shoot over the top, the Bulldogs can get into a rut. Mississippi State shoots poorly from long range as a team, and while supporting players such as Cameron Matthews, Dashawn Davis and D.J. Jeffries can score, the only consistent producers are Smith and Hubbard. Too many non-shooters sometimes take jump shots, and the Bulldogs can be faulty at the foul line as they only make 67 percent as a team.
Outlook: Under coach Chris Jans, Mississippi State should make a regular appearance in the NCAA Tournament — after the program failed to earn bids in 12 of the 13 seasons before he arrived. This team is good enough to open with a victory and earn a shot at one of the tournament’s big boys. Smith and Hubbard average 33 points a game combined, and if they can push that to the 40-45 range with smart offensive play from teammates, they can make things interesting against anyone.
—Joe Rexrode
Team in 16 words: When you’ve got a guard and a big like the Bulldogs have, you’ve got a chance.
Record: 21-13 (8-10 SEC)
Coach: Chris Jans (1-4 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Josh Hubbard (second-team All-SEC)
Michigan State
Strengths: For all of its flaws, Michigan State has flashes of dominance. Those flashes usually begin in the fastbreak, where the Spartans average 14.3 points per game, the 22nd-best mark in the nation. A.J. Hoggard, Jaden Akins and Tre Holloman are a trio of guards who can create good looks, so long as they take them, while veteran Malik Hall finished the regular season with one of his strongest stretches. The defense holds opponents to 65.9 points per game, yet Michigan State too often needs leading scorer Tyson Walker to put the game away.
Weaknesses: It’s hard to trust this Michigan State team. The Spartans can’t get over shooting troubles and, despite plenty of good looks, average 73.5 points per game (10th in the Big Ten). Their 46.3 percent field goal mark ranks 80th nationally, while their 35.9 mark from 3-point range ranks just outside the top 60. Ball security is another issue and the Spartans must stay out of foul trouble.
Outlook: Michigan State enters the NCAA Tournament on the back of a gritty loss to Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals — the second time in March the Spartans played the Boilermakers to the end. Resume-building wins against Baylor, Illinois and a pesky Indiana State team show how the pieces can come together with aggressive rebounding and defense. But the X-factor will be whether Michigan State can get more of its shots to go through.
—Jayna Bardahl
Strengths: For all of its flaws, Michigan State has flashes of dominance. Those flashes usually begin in the fastbreak, where the Spartans average 14.3 points per game, the 22nd-best mark in the nation. A.J. Hoggard, Jaden Akins and Tre Holloman are a trio of guards who can create good looks, so long as they take them, while veteran Malik Hall finished the regular season with one of his strongest stretches. The defense holds opponents to 65.9 points per game, yet Michigan State too often needs leading scorer Tyson Walker to put the game away.
Weaknesses: It’s hard to trust this Michigan State team. The Spartans can’t get over shooting troubles and, despite plenty of good looks, average 73.5 points per game (10th in the Big Ten). Their 46.3 percent field goal mark ranks 80th nationally, while their 35.9 mark from 3-point range ranks just outside the top 60. Ball security is another issue and the Spartans must stay out of foul trouble.
Outlook: Michigan State enters the NCAA Tournament on the back of a gritty loss to Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals — the second time in March the Spartans played the Boilermakers to the end. Resume-building wins against Baylor, Illinois and a pesky Indiana State team show how the pieces can come together with aggressive rebounding and defense. But the X-factor will be whether Michigan State can get more of its shots to go through.
—Jayna Bardahl
Strengths: For all of its flaws, Michigan State has flashes of dominance. Those flashes usually begin in the fastbreak, where the Spartans average 14.3 points per game, the 22nd-best mark in the nation. A.J. Hoggard, Jaden Akins and Tre Holloman are a trio of guards who can create good looks, so long as they take them, while veteran Malik Hall finished the regular season with one of his strongest stretches. The defense holds opponents to 65.9 points per game, yet Michigan State too often needs leading scorer Tyson Walker to put the game away.
Weaknesses: It’s hard to trust this Michigan State team. The Spartans can’t get over shooting troubles and, despite plenty of good looks, average 73.5 points per game (10th in the Big Ten). Their 46.3 percent field goal mark ranks 80th nationally, while their 35.9 mark from 3-point range ranks just outside the top 60. Ball security is another issue and the Spartans must stay out of foul trouble.
Outlook: Michigan State enters the NCAA Tournament on the back of a gritty loss to Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals — the second time in March the Spartans played the Boilermakers to the end. Resume-building wins against Baylor, Illinois and a pesky Indiana State team show how the pieces can come together with aggressive rebounding and defense. But the X-factor will be whether Michigan State can get more of its shots to go through.
—Jayna Bardahl
Team in 16 words: Tom Izzo’s inconsistent Spartans show flashes of potential but often come up short in big moments.
Record: 19-14 (10-10 Big Ten)
Coach: Tom Izzo (55-24 in NCAA Tournament, 8 Final Fours, 1 national title)
Player to watch: Tyson Walker (second-team All-Big Ten)
Nevada
Strengths: When you talk about Nevada you have to start with their backcourt. Jarod Lucas and Kenan Blackshear were probably the best backcourt in the Mountain West and could match up well with any pair of guards in college basketball this season. That duo is the engine for an offense that ranked third in efficiency in the Mountain West this season. The Wolf Pack were also the hottest team in the conference over the final month of the regular season, despite the fact that Blackshear missed some time.
Weaknesses: Nevada relies on being able to get to the free-throw line more than anyone else in the Big Dance. We know that the NCAA Tournament is officiated differently. Will they get the benefit of a friendly whistle when facing off with a team from one of the Big Six leagues?
Outlook: The Wolf Pack have three things going for them right now. First, they’ve been on fire in February and March, going 10-2 entering the Big Dance. Second, they have a pair of excellent guards, and guard play matters more than anything else in the NCAA Tournament. Third, they’ve beaten strong teams like Washington and TCU. The Wolf Pack can win a game or two in this tournament.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: When you talk about Nevada you have to start with their backcourt. Jarod Lucas and Kenan Blackshear were probably the best backcourt in the Mountain West and could match up well with any pair of guards in college basketball this season. That duo is the engine for an offense that ranked third in efficiency in the Mountain West this season. The Wolf Pack were also the hottest team in the conference over the final month of the regular season, despite the fact that Blackshear missed some time.
Weaknesses: Nevada relies on being able to get to the free-throw line more than anyone else in the Big Dance. We know that the NCAA Tournament is officiated differently. Will they get the benefit of a friendly whistle when facing off with a team from one of the Big Six leagues?
Outlook: The Wolf Pack have three things going for them right now. First, they’ve been on fire in February and March, going 10-2 entering the Big Dance. Second, they have a pair of excellent guards, and guard play matters more than anything else in the NCAA Tournament. Third, they’ve beaten strong teams like Washington and TCU. The Wolf Pack can win a game or two in this tournament.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: When you talk about Nevada you have to start with their backcourt. Jarod Lucas and Kenan Blackshear were probably the best backcourt in the Mountain West and could match up well with any pair of guards in college basketball this season. That duo is the engine for an offense that ranked third in efficiency in the Mountain West this season. The Wolf Pack were also the hottest team in the conference over the final month of the regular season, despite the fact that Blackshear missed some time.
Weaknesses: Nevada relies on being able to get to the free-throw line more than anyone else in the Big Dance. We know that the NCAA Tournament is officiated differently. Will they get the benefit of a friendly whistle when facing off with a team from one of the Big Six leagues?
Outlook: The Wolf Pack have three things going for them right now. First, they’ve been on fire in February and March, going 10-2 entering the Big Dance. Second, they have a pair of excellent guards, and guard play matters more than anything else in the NCAA Tournament. Third, they’ve beaten strong teams like Washington and TCU. The Wolf Pack can win a game or two in this tournament.
—Rob Dauster
Team in 16 words: Steve Alford’s best team at Nevada has a backcourt that’s as good as any.
Record: 26-7 (13-5 MWC)
Coach: Steve Alford (11-12 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Kenan Blackshear (second-team All-MWC)
New Mexico
Strengths: New Mexico plays fast (top 10 in adjusted tempo per KenPom) but it takes care of the ball (top 20 in offensive turnover rate) and features a frontcourt in Nelly Junior Joseph and JT Toppin that hits the offensive glass. The Lobos are talented enough to play with almost anyone.
Weaknesses: The Lobos needed game-winning shots to beat UT Arlington and New Mexico State, and are 4-3 in games decided by a basket. If they shot better from the perimeter (33.4 percent from 3), they’d blow out teams.
Outlook: Only Kentucky’s backcourt features two quicker, more explosive players. Jaelen House — a 6-foot senior who shrugged off injuries at the start of the season — is the heart and soul of the team. His production (16.1 ppg, 3.5 apg, 2.3 spg) is down from previous years, but he’s a dynamic offensive player and a pest on defense. Donovan Dent, a 6-foot-2 sophomore, can score (14.3 ppg) and finish (three game-winning shots this season). They’re capable of carrying the Lobos to two wins and the second week.
—Mike Miller
Strengths: New Mexico plays fast (top 10 in adjusted tempo per KenPom) but it takes care of the ball (top 20 in offensive turnover rate) and features a frontcourt in Nelly Junior Joseph and JT Toppin that hits the offensive glass. The Lobos are talented enough to play with almost anyone.
Weaknesses: The Lobos needed game-winning shots to beat UT Arlington and New Mexico State, and are 4-3 in games decided by a basket. If they shot better from the perimeter (33.4 percent from 3), they’d blow out teams.
Outlook: Only Kentucky’s backcourt features two quicker, more explosive players. Jaelen House — a 6-foot senior who shrugged off injuries at the start of the season — is the heart and soul of the team. His production (16.1 ppg, 3.5 apg, 2.3 spg) is down from previous years, but he’s a dynamic offensive player and a pest on defense. Donovan Dent, a 6-foot-2 sophomore, can score (14.3 ppg) and finish (three game-winning shots this season). They’re capable of carrying the Lobos to two wins and the second week.
—Mike Miller
Strengths: New Mexico plays fast (top 10 in adjusted tempo per KenPom) but it takes care of the ball (top 20 in offensive turnover rate) and features a frontcourt in Nelly Junior Joseph and JT Toppin that hits the offensive glass. The Lobos are talented enough to play with almost anyone.
Weaknesses: The Lobos needed game-winning shots to beat UT Arlington and New Mexico State, and are 4-3 in games decided by a basket. If they shot better from the perimeter (33.4 percent from 3), they’d blow out teams.
Outlook: Only Kentucky’s backcourt features two quicker, more explosive players. Jaelen House — a 6-foot senior who shrugged off injuries at the start of the season — is the heart and soul of the team. His production (16.1 ppg, 3.5 apg, 2.3 spg) is down from previous years, but he’s a dynamic offensive player and a pest on defense. Donovan Dent, a 6-foot-2 sophomore, can score (14.3 ppg) and finish (three game-winning shots this season). They’re capable of carrying the Lobos to two wins and the second week.
—Mike Miller
Team in 16 words: They’re not only happy to be here. They’re thinking Sweet 16.
Record: 26-9 (10-8 MWC)
Coach: Richard Pitino (1-2 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Jaelen House (third-team All-MWC)
Grand Canyon
Strengths: After almost two full years off the court, Tyon Grant-Foster (formerly of Kansas and DePaul) has become the Lopes’ Mr. Everything en route to WAC Player of the Year honors. He takes 23 percent of his team’s shots from the floor and sets the pace with 19.8 points per game. Coach Bryce Drew struck gold with his portal-heavy lineup and has crafted a balanced, battle-tested team that boasts wins over San Diego State and San Francisco plus a single-digit loss to South Carolina.
Weaknesses: Their tallest rotation player, sophomore Duke Brennan, is 6-foot-10, and although Grand Canyon outrebounded their opponents by roughly five boards per game during the regular season, they play a schedule that doesn’t always present a ton of skilled big men. The NCAA Tournament has historically exposed that type of quality-of-competition gap.
Outlook: The Lopes figure to be a trendy upset pick, but so was New Mexico State during its recent decade-plus of WAC dominance — and the Aggies only broke through with a first-round victory in 2022 at UConn’s expense. So exercise caution. Drew’s Valparaiso and Vanderbilt teams came out on the wrong end of some tournament nail-biters that weren’t entirely his fault, and this team feels more ready for primetime than any other team he’s brought into the bracket.
—Eric Single
Strengths: After almost two full years off the court, Tyon Grant-Foster (formerly of Kansas and DePaul) has become the Lopes’ Mr. Everything en route to WAC Player of the Year honors. He takes 23 percent of his team’s shots from the floor and sets the pace with 19.8 points per game. Coach Bryce Drew struck gold with his portal-heavy lineup and has crafted a balanced, battle-tested team that boasts wins over San Diego State and San Francisco plus a single-digit loss to South Carolina.
Weaknesses: Their tallest rotation player, sophomore Duke Brennan, is 6-foot-10, and although Grand Canyon outrebounded their opponents by roughly five boards per game during the regular season, they play a schedule that doesn’t always present a ton of skilled big men. The NCAA Tournament has historically exposed that type of quality-of-competition gap.
Outlook: The Lopes figure to be a trendy upset pick, but so was New Mexico State during its recent decade-plus of WAC dominance — and the Aggies only broke through with a first-round victory in 2022 at UConn’s expense. So exercise caution. Drew’s Valparaiso and Vanderbilt teams came out on the wrong end of some tournament nail-biters that weren’t entirely his fault, and this team feels more ready for primetime than any other team he’s brought into the bracket.
—Eric Single
Strengths: After almost two full years off the court, Tyon Grant-Foster (formerly of Kansas and DePaul) has become the Lopes’ Mr. Everything en route to WAC Player of the Year honors. He takes 23 percent of his team’s shots from the floor and sets the pace with 19.8 points per game. Coach Bryce Drew struck gold with his portal-heavy lineup and has crafted a balanced, battle-tested team that boasts wins over San Diego State and San Francisco plus a single-digit loss to South Carolina.
Weaknesses: Their tallest rotation player, sophomore Duke Brennan, is 6-foot-10, and although Grand Canyon outrebounded their opponents by roughly five boards per game during the regular season, they play a schedule that doesn’t always present a ton of skilled big men. The NCAA Tournament has historically exposed that type of quality-of-competition gap.
Outlook: The Lopes figure to be a trendy upset pick, but so was New Mexico State during its recent decade-plus of WAC dominance — and the Aggies only broke through with a first-round victory in 2022 at UConn’s expense. So exercise caution. Drew’s Valparaiso and Vanderbilt teams came out on the wrong end of some tournament nail-biters that weren’t entirely his fault, and this team feels more ready for primetime than any other team he’s brought into the bracket.
—Eric Single
Team in 16 words: The Lopes just don’t lose often. If a sluggish high-major lets them hang around, it’ll pay.
Record: 29-4 (17-3 WAC)
Coach: Bryce Drew (0-5 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Tyon Grant-Foster (WAC Player of the Year)
Charleston
Outlook: A year ago, Charleston nearly ended national runner-up San Diego State’s tournament in the first round, losing by six in a game that was tied with three minutes to go. The Cougars only returned two starters, but Pat Kelsey’s bunch won 27 games and the CAA regular-season and conference titles for the second year in a row.
They play at a fast tempo and take care of the basketball (30th nationally in turnover percentage, per KenPom). The offense is balanced — six players, led by Reyne Smith (12.8 points per game), average at least eight points per game. The Cougars shoot a lot of 3-pointers. They’re 19-1 when they make at least 10 3-pointers, and 39.5 percent of their points come from beyond the arc — among tournament teams, only BYU relies on them more heavily.
Ante Brzovic, a 6-foot-10 center from Croatia, gives Charleston some size. The metrics show the Cougars aren’t as solid defensively as a year ago (176th in efficiency, per KenPom, versus 67th last season), and that was evident in their only Quad 1 game — a 90-74 loss to Florida Atlantic in December.
Kelsey has been highly successful at the mid-major level, going 47-12 in his final two seasons at Winthrop before taking the Charleston job. He has now run up a 58-11 mark in the last two campaigns, but is still looking for his first NCAA Tournament win — Charleston has to hope it comes soon, before a high-major tries to pry him away.
—Mark Cooper
Outlook: A year ago, Charleston nearly ended national runner-up San Diego State’s tournament in the first round, losing by six in a game that was tied with three minutes to go. The Cougars only returned two starters, but Pat Kelsey’s bunch won 27 games and the CAA regular-season and conference titles for the second year in a row.
They play at a fast tempo and take care of the basketball (30th nationally in turnover percentage, per KenPom). The offense is balanced — six players, led by Reyne Smith (12.8 points per game), average at least eight points per game. The Cougars shoot a lot of 3-pointers. They’re 19-1 when they make at least 10 3-pointers, and 39.5 percent of their points come from beyond the arc — among tournament teams, only BYU relies on them more heavily.
Ante Brzovic, a 6-foot-10 center from Croatia, gives Charleston some size. The metrics show the Cougars aren’t as solid defensively as a year ago (176th in efficiency, per KenPom, versus 67th last season), and that was evident in their only Quad 1 game — a 90-74 loss to Florida Atlantic in December.
Kelsey has been highly successful at the mid-major level, going 47-12 in his final two seasons at Winthrop before taking the Charleston job. He has now run up a 58-11 mark in the last two campaigns, but is still looking for his first NCAA Tournament win — Charleston has to hope it comes soon, before a high-major tries to pry him away.
—Mark Cooper
Outlook: A year ago, Charleston nearly ended national runner-up San Diego State’s tournament in the first round, losing by six in a game that was tied with three minutes to go. The Cougars only returned two starters, but Pat Kelsey’s bunch won 27 games and the CAA regular-season and conference titles for the second year in a row.
They play at a fast tempo and take care of the basketball (30th nationally in turnover percentage, per KenPom). The offense is balanced — six players, led by Reyne Smith (12.8 points per game), average at least eight points per game. The Cougars shoot a lot of 3-pointers. They’re 19-1 when they make at least 10 3-pointers, and 39.5 percent of their points come from beyond the arc — among tournament teams, only BYU relies on them more heavily.
Ante Brzovic, a 6-foot-10 center from Croatia, gives Charleston some size. The metrics show the Cougars aren’t as solid defensively as a year ago (176th in efficiency, per KenPom, versus 67th last season), and that was evident in their only Quad 1 game — a 90-74 loss to Florida Atlantic in December.
Kelsey has been highly successful at the mid-major level, going 47-12 in his final two seasons at Winthrop before taking the Charleston job. He has now run up a 58-11 mark in the last two campaigns, but is still looking for his first NCAA Tournament win — Charleston has to hope it comes soon, before a high-major tries to pry him away.
—Mark Cooper
Team in 16 words: They enter the tournament hot. The Cougars could scare a high seed — if the 3-pointers fall.
Record: 27-7 (15-3 CAA)
Coach: Pat Kelsey (0-3 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Ante Brzovic (first-team All-CAA)
Colgate
Outlook: Previous Colgate teams boasted elite offenses behind elite perimeter shooting (in previous NCAA tourney appearances, they ranked first, second, third and seventh in 3-point percentage). This version relies on defense. It limits opponents’ second-chance points and challenges every perimeter shot and leaves the offense to sophomore point guard Braeden Smith, who can create his own shot, but excels at creating for others. The Raiders aren’t overly athletic, which might bode ill if they face a team that can press or create shots off the bounce.
—Mike Miller
Outlook: Previous Colgate teams boasted elite offenses behind elite perimeter shooting (in previous NCAA tourney appearances, they ranked first, second, third and seventh in 3-point percentage). This version relies on defense. It limits opponents’ second-chance points and challenges every perimeter shot and leaves the offense to sophomore point guard Braeden Smith, who can create his own shot, but excels at creating for others. The Raiders aren’t overly athletic, which might bode ill if they face a team that can press or create shots off the bounce.
—Mike Miller
Outlook: Previous Colgate teams boasted elite offenses behind elite perimeter shooting (in previous NCAA tourney appearances, they ranked first, second, third and seventh in 3-point percentage). This version relies on defense. It limits opponents’ second-chance points and challenges every perimeter shot and leaves the offense to sophomore point guard Braeden Smith, who can create his own shot, but excels at creating for others. The Raiders aren’t overly athletic, which might bode ill if they face a team that can press or create shots off the bounce.
—Mike Miller
Team in 16 words: A good, not great team playing in its fifth straight Big Dance.
Record: 25-9 (16-2 Patriot)
Coach: Matt Langel (0-4 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Braeden Smith (Patriot Player of the Year)
Long Beach State
Outlook: Coach Dan Monson, effectively canned just before the Big West Tournament by the school’s athletic director, is laughing last. Soaking up the sunshine, The Beach — with Monson still coaching — played inspired ball and propelled themselves into the Field of 68. Shocking.
Long Beach stands out by applying on-ball pressure and snagging offensive boards. Over the regular season’s final month, The Beach forced a turnover on nearly 19 percent of opponent possessions. They grabbed an offensive rebound nearly 35 percent of the time. The Big West reps hung with San Diego State in November, their only encounter with an NCAA Tournament team this year. Energized by Monson’s dismissal, they could scare a big boy, provided they limit turnover mistakes and continue to generate ample additional opportunities.
—Brad Evans
Outlook: Coach Dan Monson, effectively canned just before the Big West Tournament by the school’s athletic director, is laughing last. Soaking up the sunshine, The Beach — with Monson still coaching — played inspired ball and propelled themselves into the Field of 68. Shocking.
Long Beach stands out by applying on-ball pressure and snagging offensive boards. Over the regular season’s final month, The Beach forced a turnover on nearly 19 percent of opponent possessions. They grabbed an offensive rebound nearly 35 percent of the time. The Big West reps hung with San Diego State in November, their only encounter with an NCAA Tournament team this year. Energized by Monson’s dismissal, they could scare a big boy, provided they limit turnover mistakes and continue to generate ample additional opportunities.
—Brad Evans
Outlook: Coach Dan Monson, effectively canned just before the Big West Tournament by the school’s athletic director, is laughing last. Soaking up the sunshine, The Beach — with Monson still coaching — played inspired ball and propelled themselves into the Field of 68. Shocking.
Long Beach stands out by applying on-ball pressure and snagging offensive boards. Over the regular season’s final month, The Beach forced a turnover on nearly 19 percent of opponent possessions. They grabbed an offensive rebound nearly 35 percent of the time. The Big West reps hung with San Diego State in November, their only encounter with an NCAA Tournament team this year. Energized by Monson’s dismissal, they could scare a big boy, provided they limit turnover mistakes and continue to generate ample additional opportunities.
—Brad Evans
Team in 16 words: With their coach already fired, The Beach thrived off turnovers and second chances to sneak in.
Record: 21-14 (10-10 Big West)
Coach: Dan Monson (3-3 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Marcus Tsohonis (first-team All-Big West)
Howard
Outlook: Howard heads to its second straight tourney and the experience matters. Last season Shy Odom was the leading scorer and rebounder in their first-round matchup with Kansas, while first-team All-MEAC guard Brice Harris played limited minutes.
They’re in the top 20 in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage (37.5 percent) but rank closer to 200th in attempts. Their coach, Kenneth Blakeney, is a former Duke guard, so there’s some pedigree there. Of their 16 losses, only five have been by more than 10 points, and they took Yale and Cincinnati to overtime.
This team has still lost a lot of games to teams that are not NCAA Tournament quality. They play most opponents close but have a tendency to let the game get away from them in the second half. Even in the games they keep close, they’ve ended up on the losing side more often than they’d probably like.
The Bison upset Norfolk State in the semifinals of the conference tournament and eventually stole the automatic bid. That will likely be the last time they steal anything this year. The glass slipper will not fit.
—Gene Clemons
Outlook: Howard heads to its second straight tourney and the experience matters. Last season Shy Odom was the leading scorer and rebounder in their first-round matchup with Kansas, while first-team All-MEAC guard Brice Harris played limited minutes.
They’re in the top 20 in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage (37.5 percent) but rank closer to 200th in attempts. Their coach, Kenneth Blakeney, is a former Duke guard, so there’s some pedigree there. Of their 16 losses, only five have been by more than 10 points, and they took Yale and Cincinnati to overtime.
This team has still lost a lot of games to teams that are not NCAA Tournament quality. They play most opponents close but have a tendency to let the game get away from them in the second half. Even in the games they keep close, they’ve ended up on the losing side more often than they’d probably like.
The Bison upset Norfolk State in the semifinals of the conference tournament and eventually stole the automatic bid. That will likely be the last time they steal anything this year. The glass slipper will not fit.
—Gene Clemons
Outlook: Howard heads to its second straight tourney and the experience matters. Last season Shy Odom was the leading scorer and rebounder in their first-round matchup with Kansas, while first-team All-MEAC guard Brice Harris played limited minutes.
They’re in the top 20 in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage (37.5 percent) but rank closer to 200th in attempts. Their coach, Kenneth Blakeney, is a former Duke guard, so there’s some pedigree there. Of their 16 losses, only five have been by more than 10 points, and they took Yale and Cincinnati to overtime.
This team has still lost a lot of games to teams that are not NCAA Tournament quality. They play most opponents close but have a tendency to let the game get away from them in the second half. Even in the games they keep close, they’ve ended up on the losing side more often than they’d probably like.
The Bison upset Norfolk State in the semifinals of the conference tournament and eventually stole the automatic bid. That will likely be the last time they steal anything this year. The glass slipper will not fit.
—Gene Clemons
Team in 16 words: The Bison have a great combination of veteran leadership and youthful excitement but likely won’t advance.
Record: 18-16 (9-5 MEAC)
Coach: Kenneth Blakeney (0-1 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Brice Harris (first-team All-MEAC)
Wagner
Outlook: Wagner’s coach, Donald Copeland (great interview here after he won the NEC), is a former Seton Hall point guard, and that’s been a pretty great resume builder for March Madness runs lately (Shaheen Holloway and Danny Hurley can attest). The Seahawks allowed the fewest points per game in the NEC (62.1) and were second in rebounding margin (+1.5).
The NEC ranked second-to-last among conferences this season, and you’d be hard-pressed to find an NCAA Tournament team with worse metrics than Wagner: 290th in the NET, 292nd in KenPom, 11-10 in Quad 4 this regular season.
The Seahawks won the NEC as the No. 6 seed and with just seven healthy players — did that group jell at the right time? According to the New York Post, they had assistant coaches and a football player helping them practice during the season, and they haven’t had contact practices since late December. Wagner will likely lose its first game, but this could be a team with an electric coach that just needed some time to adjust to the missing pieces.
—Brian Bennett and Nando Di Fino
Outlook: Wagner’s coach, Donald Copeland (great interview here after he won the NEC), is a former Seton Hall point guard, and that’s been a pretty great resume builder for March Madness runs lately (Shaheen Holloway and Danny Hurley can attest). The Seahawks allowed the fewest points per game in the NEC (62.1) and were second in rebounding margin (+1.5).
The NEC ranked second-to-last among conferences this season, and you’d be hard-pressed to find an NCAA Tournament team with worse metrics than Wagner: 290th in the NET, 292nd in KenPom, 11-10 in Quad 4 this regular season.
The Seahawks won the NEC as the No. 6 seed and with just seven healthy players — did that group jell at the right time? According to the New York Post, they had assistant coaches and a football player helping them practice during the season, and they haven’t had contact practices since late December. Wagner will likely lose its first game, but this could be a team with an electric coach that just needed some time to adjust to the missing pieces.
—Brian Bennett and Nando Di Fino
Outlook: Wagner’s coach, Donald Copeland (great interview here after he won the NEC), is a former Seton Hall point guard, and that’s been a pretty great resume builder for March Madness runs lately (Shaheen Holloway and Danny Hurley can attest). The Seahawks allowed the fewest points per game in the NEC (62.1) and were second in rebounding margin (+1.5).
The NEC ranked second-to-last among conferences this season, and you’d be hard-pressed to find an NCAA Tournament team with worse metrics than Wagner: 290th in the NET, 292nd in KenPom, 11-10 in Quad 4 this regular season.
The Seahawks won the NEC as the No. 6 seed and with just seven healthy players — did that group jell at the right time? According to the New York Post, they had assistant coaches and a football player helping them practice during the season, and they haven’t had contact practices since late December. Wagner will likely lose its first game, but this could be a team with an electric coach that just needed some time to adjust to the missing pieces.
—Brian Bennett and Nando Di Fino
Team in 16 words: The Seahawks have momentum, seven healthy players and a former Seton Hall point guard as coach.
Record: 16-15 (7-9 NEC)
Coach: Donald Copeland (First NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Melvin Council Jr. (first-team All-NEC)
Contributors: Jayna Bardahl, Paul Bourdett, Gene Clemons, Mark Cooper, Rob Dauster, Brad Evans, Jeff Goodman, Stewart Mandel, Marc Mazzoni, Mike Miller, Joe Rexrode, Mark Ross, Eric Single
All odds via BetMGM.
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