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The East Region of the Men’s Tournament can best be described as quirky — it features overall No. 1 seed UConn, last year’s Final Four Cinderellas FAU and San Diego State, the champions of four major conferences as the top four seeds (Big East, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC), buzzer-beating Ivy Leaguers Yale, and Duquesne, who Sam Vecenie calls, “the laziest committee decision that has ever occurred” as an 11 seed.
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As a public service announcement, be sure not to shorthand your printout with “SDSU” if you’re a San Diego State fan and are looking for South Dakota State upsets as well — they both fit the bill. In fact, the lower half of the East Region bracket has four schools with “State” in the name. They don’t keep records for things like that, but it seems like a lot.
What you’ll find below are previews for all of the teams in the East, written by the staffs of The Athletic, Brad Evans’ The Gaming Juice, and The Field of 68. “Sweet 16 projected chance” is the percentage chance that Austin Mock’s model gives a team to make the Sweet 16. “Final Four projected chance” is the percentage chance that his model gives a team to make the Final Four. See his full projections here. Enjoy the research and good luck in your brackets!
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UConn
Strengths: UConn is the most complete team this season. You want guards? The Huskies have Tristen Newton, Cam Spencer and Stephon Castle. You want bigs? Donovan Clingan is arguably the nation’s best defensive center. UConn goes seven deep on the bench before there are any questions or concerns. The scary part is that the Huskies are just now peaking. Clingan and Castle both battled injuries earlier this year. Since Jan. 17 — when Clingan returned to the lineup — UConn ranks top three in offensive and defensive efficiency.
Weaknesses: There is a path to beating the Huskies. It starts with getting Clingan in foul trouble. Backup center Samson Johnson is good, but he’s not good enough to make up for the fact that UConn’s perimeter defense can be an issue. The Huskies don’t have many playmakers who can create independently when the offense breaks down. Dan Hurley’s system is intricate and elaborate, but if an opponent can run them off of the 3-point line (like Creighton did) or successfully switch everything 1-through-4 (like Kansas and Seton Hall did), they have a chance.
Outlook: UConn is the best team in college basketball. The Huskies are peaking at the right time. They have an All-America point guard in Newton who is flanked by an athletic, slashing playmaker in Castle and one of the toughest, savviest players in the country in Spencer. Alex Karaban is as good a floor-spacer as you’ll find at the four anywhere, and Cling Kong is going to be a lottery pick for a reason. UConn will be the favorite in every game they play in the Big Dance.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: UConn is the most complete team this season. You want guards? The Huskies have Tristen Newton, Cam Spencer and Stephon Castle. You want bigs? Donovan Clingan is arguably the nation’s best defensive center. UConn goes seven deep on the bench before there are any questions or concerns. The scary part is that the Huskies are just now peaking. Clingan and Castle both battled injuries earlier this year. Since Jan. 17 — when Clingan returned to the lineup — UConn ranks top three in offensive and defensive efficiency.
Weaknesses: There is a path to beating the Huskies. It starts with getting Clingan in foul trouble. Backup center Samson Johnson is good, but he’s not good enough to make up for the fact that UConn’s perimeter defense can be an issue. The Huskies don’t have many playmakers who can create independently when the offense breaks down. Dan Hurley’s system is intricate and elaborate, but if an opponent can run them off of the 3-point line (like Creighton did) or successfully switch everything 1-through-4 (like Kansas and Seton Hall did), they have a chance.
Outlook: UConn is the best team in college basketball. The Huskies are peaking at the right time. They have an All-America point guard in Newton who is flanked by an athletic, slashing playmaker in Castle and one of the toughest, savviest players in the country in Spencer. Alex Karaban is as good a floor-spacer as you’ll find at the four anywhere, and Cling Kong is going to be a lottery pick for a reason. UConn will be the favorite in every game they play in the Big Dance.
—Rob Dauster
Strengths: UConn is the most complete team this season. You want guards? The Huskies have Tristen Newton, Cam Spencer and Stephon Castle. You want bigs? Donovan Clingan is arguably the nation’s best defensive center. UConn goes seven deep on the bench before there are any questions or concerns. The scary part is that the Huskies are just now peaking. Clingan and Castle both battled injuries earlier this year. Since Jan. 17 — when Clingan returned to the lineup — UConn ranks top three in offensive and defensive efficiency.
Weaknesses: There is a path to beating the Huskies. It starts with getting Clingan in foul trouble. Backup center Samson Johnson is good, but he’s not good enough to make up for the fact that UConn’s perimeter defense can be an issue. The Huskies don’t have many playmakers who can create independently when the offense breaks down. Dan Hurley’s system is intricate and elaborate, but if an opponent can run them off of the 3-point line (like Creighton did) or successfully switch everything 1-through-4 (like Kansas and Seton Hall did), they have a chance.
Outlook: UConn is the best team in college basketball. The Huskies are peaking at the right time. They have an All-America point guard in Newton who is flanked by an athletic, slashing playmaker in Castle and one of the toughest, savviest players in the country in Spencer. Alex Karaban is as good a floor-spacer as you’ll find at the four anywhere, and Cling Kong is going to be a lottery pick for a reason. UConn will be the favorite in every game they play in the Big Dance.
—Rob Dauster
Team in 16 words: The reigning champs will enter the tournament as the odds-on favorite to repeat.
Record: 31-3 (18-2 Big East)
Coach: Dan Hurley (8-4 in NCAA Tournament, 1 Final Four, 1 national title)
Player to watch: Tristen Newton (first-team All-Big East)
Iowa State
Strengths: Iowa State won the Big 12 Tournament and blew out Houston 69-41 in the championship game. Few teams exhaust an offense like the Cyclones. They’re constantly double-teaming opponents and swarming the ball, which results in turnovers — their 25.7 defensive turnover percentage is second nationally — and lots of 10-0 runs that sink opponents. Tamin Lipsey, a 6-foot-1 guard, is especially adept at steals. He has 16 games with at least three of them.
Weaknesses: Shot-making. If this team had a go-to scorer, it’d be a Final Four threat. But it can go long periods without a basket, whether inside the arc (51.7 percent on 2s) or beyond the arc (34.9 percent on 3-pointers). As is, the Cyclones must manufacture points and grind down opponents.
Outlook: Iowa State was picked seventh in the Big 12 preseason poll because its roster doesn’t have NBA talent or overwhelming size. But the Cyclones defied those expectations. Lipsey is an all-conference guard and Milan Momcilovic presents matchup issues, but that’s about it. Iowa State was unbeaten at home and crushed overmatched foes. But against good teams in a neutral-court setting? Was the Big 12 tourney an aberration or a sign of things to come?
—Mike Miller
Strengths: Iowa State won the Big 12 Tournament and blew out Houston 69-41 in the championship game. Few teams exhaust an offense like the Cyclones. They’re constantly double-teaming opponents and swarming the ball, which results in turnovers — their 25.7 defensive turnover percentage is second nationally — and lots of 10-0 runs that sink opponents. Tamin Lipsey, a 6-foot-1 guard, is especially adept at steals. He has 16 games with at least three of them.
Weaknesses: Shot-making. If this team had a go-to scorer, it’d be a Final Four threat. But it can go long periods without a basket, whether inside the arc (51.7 percent on 2s) or beyond the arc (34.9 percent on 3-pointers). As is, the Cyclones must manufacture points and grind down opponents.
Outlook: Iowa State was picked seventh in the Big 12 preseason poll because its roster doesn’t have NBA talent or overwhelming size. But the Cyclones defied those expectations. Lipsey is an all-conference guard and Milan Momcilovic presents matchup issues, but that’s about it. Iowa State was unbeaten at home and crushed overmatched foes. But against good teams in a neutral-court setting? Was the Big 12 tourney an aberration or a sign of things to come?
—Mike Miller
Strengths: Iowa State won the Big 12 Tournament and blew out Houston 69-41 in the championship game. Few teams exhaust an offense like the Cyclones. They’re constantly double-teaming opponents and swarming the ball, which results in turnovers — their 25.7 defensive turnover percentage is second nationally — and lots of 10-0 runs that sink opponents. Tamin Lipsey, a 6-foot-1 guard, is especially adept at steals. He has 16 games with at least three of them.
Weaknesses: Shot-making. If this team had a go-to scorer, it’d be a Final Four threat. But it can go long periods without a basket, whether inside the arc (51.7 percent on 2s) or beyond the arc (34.9 percent on 3-pointers). As is, the Cyclones must manufacture points and grind down opponents.
Outlook: Iowa State was picked seventh in the Big 12 preseason poll because its roster doesn’t have NBA talent or overwhelming size. But the Cyclones defied those expectations. Lipsey is an all-conference guard and Milan Momcilovic presents matchup issues, but that’s about it. Iowa State was unbeaten at home and crushed overmatched foes. But against good teams in a neutral-court setting? Was the Big 12 tourney an aberration or a sign of things to come?
—Mike Miller
Team in 16 words: An overachieving, defensive menace that can keep any game close.
Record: 27-7 (13-5 Big 12)
Coach: T.J. Otzelberger (2-4 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Tamin Lipsey (first-team All-Big 12)
Illinois
Strengths: The Illini — Big Ten tourney winners — can flex their muscles offensively. They netted 1.25 points per possession (per KenPom), the third-highest rate in the nation, and they’re insatiable on the offensive glass, generating a second chance on 36 percent of their possessions. Guard Terrence Shannon Jr. is capable of Carmelo Anthony-like dominance and 6-foot-10 forward Coleman Hawkins is a matchup nightmare who can defend every position. Hawkins nailed more than 39 percent of his 3-pointers during the regular season and was arguably the B1G’s staunchest defender.
Weaknesses: Glaring inconsistencies have often impeded Illinois. Over the season’s first half, the Illini were a top-10 unit in effective field-goal percentage defense but collapsed down the home stretch. They also occasionally failed to close out games against meek opponents, like their loss to Penn State when they choked away a seven-point lead with 36 seconds remaining.
Outlook: If the Fightin’ Dee Browns bring even a B-level defensive game, an Elite Eight or Final Four appearance isn’t some fever-induced dream. Their across-the-board size and scoring ability, especially Shannon’s, are superb. But, without a true point guard, they could crumble in tight late-game situations. Still, count on the Illini to at least reach the second weekend.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: The Illini — Big Ten tourney winners — can flex their muscles offensively. They netted 1.25 points per possession (per KenPom), the third-highest rate in the nation, and they’re insatiable on the offensive glass, generating a second chance on 36 percent of their possessions. Guard Terrence Shannon Jr. is capable of Carmelo Anthony-like dominance and 6-foot-10 forward Coleman Hawkins is a matchup nightmare who can defend every position. Hawkins nailed more than 39 percent of his 3-pointers during the regular season and was arguably the B1G’s staunchest defender.
Weaknesses: Glaring inconsistencies have often impeded Illinois. Over the season’s first half, the Illini were a top-10 unit in effective field-goal percentage defense but collapsed down the home stretch. They also occasionally failed to close out games against meek opponents, like their loss to Penn State when they choked away a seven-point lead with 36 seconds remaining.
Outlook: If the Fightin’ Dee Browns bring even a B-level defensive game, an Elite Eight or Final Four appearance isn’t some fever-induced dream. Their across-the-board size and scoring ability, especially Shannon’s, are superb. But, without a true point guard, they could crumble in tight late-game situations. Still, count on the Illini to at least reach the second weekend.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: The Illini — Big Ten tourney winners — can flex their muscles offensively. They netted 1.25 points per possession (per KenPom), the third-highest rate in the nation, and they’re insatiable on the offensive glass, generating a second chance on 36 percent of their possessions. Guard Terrence Shannon Jr. is capable of Carmelo Anthony-like dominance and 6-foot-10 forward Coleman Hawkins is a matchup nightmare who can defend every position. Hawkins nailed more than 39 percent of his 3-pointers during the regular season and was arguably the B1G’s staunchest defender.
Weaknesses: Glaring inconsistencies have often impeded Illinois. Over the season’s first half, the Illini were a top-10 unit in effective field-goal percentage defense but collapsed down the home stretch. They also occasionally failed to close out games against meek opponents, like their loss to Penn State when they choked away a seven-point lead with 36 seconds remaining.
Outlook: If the Fightin’ Dee Browns bring even a B-level defensive game, an Elite Eight or Final Four appearance isn’t some fever-induced dream. Their across-the-board size and scoring ability, especially Shannon’s, are superb. But, without a true point guard, they could crumble in tight late-game situations. Still, count on the Illini to at least reach the second weekend.
—Brad Evans
Team in 16 words: The best-constructed Illinois team for tournament success in the Brad Underwood era.
Record: 26-8 (14-6 Big Ten)
Coach: Brad Underwood (4-7 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Terrence Shannon Jr. (first-team All-Big Ten)
Auburn
Strengths: Auburn won the SEC Tournament, beating Florida 86-67 on Selection Sunday. Johni Broome and Jaylin Williams combine to average nearly 30 points and more than 12 rebounds per game. That’s one of the better frontcourt duos in the SEC. Auburn can guard, and that’s why the Tigers have won so many games. Bruce Pearl’s teams are almost always tough and defend at a high level. He also goes deep into his bench, which can help wear down teams, but also manage foul trouble and injury issues.
Weaknesses: The backcourt is mediocre. Freshman Aden Holloway was terrific early, but struggled mightily in SEC play, shooting 25 percent from 3-point range. Denver Jones (FIU transfer) has been solid and Tre Donaldson plays hard, but they are limited. Pearl doesn’t have a guard who he can just give the ball to and trust them to go make a play. Broome and Williams are the two best players, and both are frontcourt guys. That’s not the recipe for tourney success.
Outlook: Pearl can coach. There’s no doubt about that. But this isn’t a team that can match up talent-wise with some of the other top teams in the country. Pearl has overachieved with his talent, but that’s not to say that the Tigers — who play a lot of guys — can’t find a way into the second weekend with a star big man in Broome. But much will depend on the perimeter play.
—Jeff Goodman
Strengths: Auburn won the SEC Tournament, beating Florida 86-67 on Selection Sunday. Johni Broome and Jaylin Williams combine to average nearly 30 points and more than 12 rebounds per game. That’s one of the better frontcourt duos in the SEC. Auburn can guard, and that’s why the Tigers have won so many games. Bruce Pearl’s teams are almost always tough and defend at a high level. He also goes deep into his bench, which can help wear down teams, but also manage foul trouble and injury issues.
Weaknesses: The backcourt is mediocre. Freshman Aden Holloway was terrific early, but struggled mightily in SEC play, shooting 25 percent from 3-point range. Denver Jones (FIU transfer) has been solid and Tre Donaldson plays hard, but they are limited. Pearl doesn’t have a guard who he can just give the ball to and trust them to go make a play. Broome and Williams are the two best players, and both are frontcourt guys. That’s not the recipe for tourney success.
Outlook: Pearl can coach. There’s no doubt about that. But this isn’t a team that can match up talent-wise with some of the other top teams in the country. Pearl has overachieved with his talent, but that’s not to say that the Tigers — who play a lot of guys — can’t find a way into the second weekend with a star big man in Broome. But much will depend on the perimeter play.
—Jeff Goodman
Strengths: Auburn won the SEC Tournament, beating Florida 86-67 on Selection Sunday. Johni Broome and Jaylin Williams combine to average nearly 30 points and more than 12 rebounds per game. That’s one of the better frontcourt duos in the SEC. Auburn can guard, and that’s why the Tigers have won so many games. Bruce Pearl’s teams are almost always tough and defend at a high level. He also goes deep into his bench, which can help wear down teams, but also manage foul trouble and injury issues.
Weaknesses: The backcourt is mediocre. Freshman Aden Holloway was terrific early, but struggled mightily in SEC play, shooting 25 percent from 3-point range. Denver Jones (FIU transfer) has been solid and Tre Donaldson plays hard, but they are limited. Pearl doesn’t have a guard who he can just give the ball to and trust them to go make a play. Broome and Williams are the two best players, and both are frontcourt guys. That’s not the recipe for tourney success.
Outlook: Pearl can coach. There’s no doubt about that. But this isn’t a team that can match up talent-wise with some of the other top teams in the country. Pearl has overachieved with his talent, but that’s not to say that the Tigers — who play a lot of guys — can’t find a way into the second weekend with a star big man in Broome. But much will depend on the perimeter play.
—Jeff Goodman
Team in 16 words: Bruce Pearl’s teams defend, play hard and if they make enough shots from deep, are dangerous.
Record: 27-7 (13-5 SEC)
Coach: Bruce Pearl (17-12 in NCAA Tournament, 1 Final Four)
Player to watch: Johni Broome (first-team All-SEC)
San Diego State
Strengths: The defense is completely different than it was a year ago en route to the Final Four run, since there’s no rim protector this season. But the Aztecs are still one of the top defensive teams in the nation (No. 8 on KenPom). Jaedon LeDee averaged 7.9 points on last year’s team, but has developed into one of the nation’s top players, and he’s a big, strong forward who can win matchups with opposing big men.
Weaknesses: The Aztecs struggle to shoot the ball from deep. Of the four players who have attempted more than 100 3-pointers this season, only Reese Waters (36.9 percent) is hitting more than a third of them. There’s also no true point guard on the team, and besides LeDee, no one averages more than 10.2 points per contest. San Diego State has a bunch of solid guards, but this team is largely reliant on LeDee to put up points.
Outlook: It’s hard to count out the Aztecs after last year’s surprising run to the national title game, but this team just doesn’t appear as capable without a rim protector in the paint and also without a sidekick to LeDee on the offensive end. Coach Brian Dutcher will need last year’s hero, Lamont Butler, to step it up offensively along with Micah Parrish and Darrion Trammell.
—Jeff Goodman
Strengths: The defense is completely different than it was a year ago en route to the Final Four run, since there’s no rim protector this season. But the Aztecs are still one of the top defensive teams in the nation (No. 8 on KenPom). Jaedon LeDee averaged 7.9 points on last year’s team, but has developed into one of the nation’s top players, and he’s a big, strong forward who can win matchups with opposing big men.
Weaknesses: The Aztecs struggle to shoot the ball from deep. Of the four players who have attempted more than 100 3-pointers this season, only Reese Waters (36.9 percent) is hitting more than a third of them. There’s also no true point guard on the team, and besides LeDee, no one averages more than 10.2 points per contest. San Diego State has a bunch of solid guards, but this team is largely reliant on LeDee to put up points.
Outlook: It’s hard to count out the Aztecs after last year’s surprising run to the national title game, but this team just doesn’t appear as capable without a rim protector in the paint and also without a sidekick to LeDee on the offensive end. Coach Brian Dutcher will need last year’s hero, Lamont Butler, to step it up offensively along with Micah Parrish and Darrion Trammell.
—Jeff Goodman
Strengths: The defense is completely different than it was a year ago en route to the Final Four run, since there’s no rim protector this season. But the Aztecs are still one of the top defensive teams in the nation (No. 8 on KenPom). Jaedon LeDee averaged 7.9 points on last year’s team, but has developed into one of the nation’s top players, and he’s a big, strong forward who can win matchups with opposing big men.
Weaknesses: The Aztecs struggle to shoot the ball from deep. Of the four players who have attempted more than 100 3-pointers this season, only Reese Waters (36.9 percent) is hitting more than a third of them. There’s also no true point guard on the team, and besides LeDee, no one averages more than 10.2 points per contest. San Diego State has a bunch of solid guards, but this team is largely reliant on LeDee to put up points.
Outlook: It’s hard to count out the Aztecs after last year’s surprising run to the national title game, but this team just doesn’t appear as capable without a rim protector in the paint and also without a sidekick to LeDee on the offensive end. Coach Brian Dutcher will need last year’s hero, Lamont Butler, to step it up offensively along with Micah Parrish and Darrion Trammell.
—Jeff Goodman
Team in 16 words: Brian Dutcher’s team shocked the nation last year, and now are hoping to ride star Jaedon LeDee.
Record: 24-10 (11-7 MWC)
Coach: Brian Dutcher (5-4 in NCAA Tournament, 1 Final Four)
Player to watch: Jaedon LeDee (first-team All-MWC)
BYU
Strengths: No team in the field relies on 3-pointers more than BYU. The Cougars shoot 34.8 percent from deep — right at the national average — but 50.7 percent of their total field-goal attempts come from beyond the arc. All the threes also open up easy shots inside the arc where BYU connects on 58 percent of its twos. The Cougars rank in the top 20 in adjusted efficiency on KenPom, but sometimes fall behind without good shooting. Their best wins include beating Iowa State and Texas at home and at Kansas in late February.
Weaknesses: BYU’s defense only forces turnovers on about 16 percent of opponents’ possessions which is one of the worst rates in the country, and isn’t great at protecting the rim. It’s not a bad defense, but it rarely alters the game. The Cougars will hustle, but that’s about it. The Cougars also don’t get many free throws because they shoot so many threes.
Outlook: BYU spreads out opponents with its 5-out approach. Whether it’s Dallin Hall running the show or Aly Khalifa spotting shooters from the top of the key, BYU’s size helps it spot open shooters over the defense. And when opponents try to limit 3s, BYU will drive to the basket. The Cougars also use 6-foot-6 Fousseyni Traore down low when Khalifa is on the bench, offering more space for those shooters. BYU could make a formidable foe this week. However, a deep run is only possible if the shots are falling.
—Mike Miller
Strengths: No team in the field relies on 3-pointers more than BYU. The Cougars shoot 34.8 percent from deep — right at the national average — but 50.7 percent of their total field-goal attempts come from beyond the arc. All the threes also open up easy shots inside the arc where BYU connects on 58 percent of its twos. The Cougars rank in the top 20 in adjusted efficiency on KenPom, but sometimes fall behind without good shooting. Their best wins include beating Iowa State and Texas at home and at Kansas in late February.
Weaknesses: BYU’s defense only forces turnovers on about 16 percent of opponents’ possessions which is one of the worst rates in the country, and isn’t great at protecting the rim. It’s not a bad defense, but it rarely alters the game. The Cougars will hustle, but that’s about it. The Cougars also don’t get many free throws because they shoot so many threes.
Outlook: BYU spreads out opponents with its 5-out approach. Whether it’s Dallin Hall running the show or Aly Khalifa spotting shooters from the top of the key, BYU’s size helps it spot open shooters over the defense. And when opponents try to limit 3s, BYU will drive to the basket. The Cougars also use 6-foot-6 Fousseyni Traore down low when Khalifa is on the bench, offering more space for those shooters. BYU could make a formidable foe this week. However, a deep run is only possible if the shots are falling.
—Mike Miller
Strengths: No team in the field relies on 3-pointers more than BYU. The Cougars shoot 34.8 percent from deep — right at the national average — but 50.7 percent of their total field-goal attempts come from beyond the arc. All the threes also open up easy shots inside the arc where BYU connects on 58 percent of its twos. The Cougars rank in the top 20 in adjusted efficiency on KenPom, but sometimes fall behind without good shooting. Their best wins include beating Iowa State and Texas at home and at Kansas in late February.
Weaknesses: BYU’s defense only forces turnovers on about 16 percent of opponents’ possessions which is one of the worst rates in the country, and isn’t great at protecting the rim. It’s not a bad defense, but it rarely alters the game. The Cougars will hustle, but that’s about it. The Cougars also don’t get many free throws because they shoot so many threes.
Outlook: BYU spreads out opponents with its 5-out approach. Whether it’s Dallin Hall running the show or Aly Khalifa spotting shooters from the top of the key, BYU’s size helps it spot open shooters over the defense. And when opponents try to limit 3s, BYU will drive to the basket. The Cougars also use 6-foot-6 Fousseyni Traore down low when Khalifa is on the bench, offering more space for those shooters. BYU could make a formidable foe this week. However, a deep run is only possible if the shots are falling.
—Mike Miller
Team in 16 words: If the threes are falling, watch out. If not, BYU won’t be around long.
Record: 23-10 (10-8 Big 12)
Coach: Mark Pope (0-1 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Jaxson Robinson (Big 12 Sixth Man of the Year)
Washington State
Strengths: Wazzu is a balanced group that finished the conference season top 50 in offensive and defensive efficiency nationally. With the ball, Washington State attacks teams around the rim. More than half of its points come inside the arc. Though long-distance jacks aren’t the centerpiece of the offense, the Cougars are quite effective at making threes. Jaylen Wells, Myles Rice and Andrej Jakimovski can tear up defenses. On the opposite end, the Cougars bare their teeth, ranking among the top 40 teams in effective field-goal percentage defense.
Weaknesses: Wazzu’s most obvious shortcoming is at the charity stripe. It has made just 70.1 percent of its attempts. Close games will be a sweat. The Cougars only play bench players around 27.1 percent of the time. Depth is a problem. They’re unchallenging non-conference schedule (No. 318 non-con SOS) also raises doubts.
Outlook: If you wagered on Washington State to make the dance preseason, congrats on the newly acquired island in the Bahamas. Widely picked to finish in the Pac-12’s bottom half, the Cougars greatly exceeded expectations. Kyle Smith can coach his tail off. Given the Cougars’ slow grind (near the bottom of the country in adjusted tempo) and sharpness on both ends, they’re a Sweet 16 dark horse. Their road win at Arizona was no aberration.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Wazzu is a balanced group that finished the conference season top 50 in offensive and defensive efficiency nationally. With the ball, Washington State attacks teams around the rim. More than half of its points come inside the arc. Though long-distance jacks aren’t the centerpiece of the offense, the Cougars are quite effective at making threes. Jaylen Wells, Myles Rice and Andrej Jakimovski can tear up defenses. On the opposite end, the Cougars bare their teeth, ranking among the top 40 teams in effective field-goal percentage defense.
Weaknesses: Wazzu’s most obvious shortcoming is at the charity stripe. It has made just 70.1 percent of its attempts. Close games will be a sweat. The Cougars only play bench players around 27.1 percent of the time. Depth is a problem. They’re unchallenging non-conference schedule (No. 318 non-con SOS) also raises doubts.
Outlook: If you wagered on Washington State to make the dance preseason, congrats on the newly acquired island in the Bahamas. Widely picked to finish in the Pac-12’s bottom half, the Cougars greatly exceeded expectations. Kyle Smith can coach his tail off. Given the Cougars’ slow grind (near the bottom of the country in adjusted tempo) and sharpness on both ends, they’re a Sweet 16 dark horse. Their road win at Arizona was no aberration.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Wazzu is a balanced group that finished the conference season top 50 in offensive and defensive efficiency nationally. With the ball, Washington State attacks teams around the rim. More than half of its points come inside the arc. Though long-distance jacks aren’t the centerpiece of the offense, the Cougars are quite effective at making threes. Jaylen Wells, Myles Rice and Andrej Jakimovski can tear up defenses. On the opposite end, the Cougars bare their teeth, ranking among the top 40 teams in effective field-goal percentage defense.
Weaknesses: Wazzu’s most obvious shortcoming is at the charity stripe. It has made just 70.1 percent of its attempts. Close games will be a sweat. The Cougars only play bench players around 27.1 percent of the time. Depth is a problem. They’re unchallenging non-conference schedule (No. 318 non-con SOS) also raises doubts.
Outlook: If you wagered on Washington State to make the dance preseason, congrats on the newly acquired island in the Bahamas. Widely picked to finish in the Pac-12’s bottom half, the Cougars greatly exceeded expectations. Kyle Smith can coach his tail off. Given the Cougars’ slow grind (near the bottom of the country in adjusted tempo) and sharpness on both ends, they’re a Sweet 16 dark horse. Their road win at Arizona was no aberration.
—Brad Evans
Team in 16 words: An undeniable surprise, but deserving entrant, the Cougars are well-rounded and well-coached on both ends.
Record: 24-9 (14-6 Pac-12)
Coach: Kyle Smith (First NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Myles Rice (Pac-12 Freshman of the Year)
Florida Atlantic
Strengths: The Owls brought just about everyone back from a team that went to the Final Four a year ago, so they have a level of experience that no other squad can match. FAU also has one of the best guards in the country in Johnell Davis — who is capable of scoring with efficiency from all three levels. Big man Vlad Goldin has made strides and at times has been the team’s best player, and also a legit low-post scoring threat.
Weaknesses: The defense was a staple last season, ranking 34th in KenPom. This year the Owls struggled on that end, ranking outside of the top 100. That’s been a major area of concern for coach Dusty May all season, along with starting games slow and having to come from behind on a frequent basis. Alijah Martin’s inconsistency has also been worrisome.
Outlook: The Owls were tough to figure this season. They had some terrible losses (Bryant and Florida Gulf Coast) and some terrific wins (Arizona). They were expected to win the AAC, but finished behind South Florida. But this is a team that can make another run with Davis, Goldin and Martin — who stepped up last postseason and will need to do it again.
—Jeff Goodman
Strengths: The Owls brought just about everyone back from a team that went to the Final Four a year ago, so they have a level of experience that no other squad can match. FAU also has one of the best guards in the country in Johnell Davis — who is capable of scoring with efficiency from all three levels. Big man Vlad Goldin has made strides and at times has been the team’s best player, and also a legit low-post scoring threat.
Weaknesses: The defense was a staple last season, ranking 34th in KenPom. This year the Owls struggled on that end, ranking outside of the top 100. That’s been a major area of concern for coach Dusty May all season, along with starting games slow and having to come from behind on a frequent basis. Alijah Martin’s inconsistency has also been worrisome.
Outlook: The Owls were tough to figure this season. They had some terrible losses (Bryant and Florida Gulf Coast) and some terrific wins (Arizona). They were expected to win the AAC, but finished behind South Florida. But this is a team that can make another run with Davis, Goldin and Martin — who stepped up last postseason and will need to do it again.
—Jeff Goodman
Strengths: The Owls brought just about everyone back from a team that went to the Final Four a year ago, so they have a level of experience that no other squad can match. FAU also has one of the best guards in the country in Johnell Davis — who is capable of scoring with efficiency from all three levels. Big man Vlad Goldin has made strides and at times has been the team’s best player, and also a legit low-post scoring threat.
Weaknesses: The defense was a staple last season, ranking 34th in KenPom. This year the Owls struggled on that end, ranking outside of the top 100. That’s been a major area of concern for coach Dusty May all season, along with starting games slow and having to come from behind on a frequent basis. Alijah Martin’s inconsistency has also been worrisome.
Outlook: The Owls were tough to figure this season. They had some terrible losses (Bryant and Florida Gulf Coast) and some terrific wins (Arizona). They were expected to win the AAC, but finished behind South Florida. But this is a team that can make another run with Davis, Goldin and Martin — who stepped up last postseason and will need to do it again.
—Jeff Goodman
Team in 16 words: Last season’s Cinderella story brought just about everyone back, but were up and down this season.
Record: 25-8 (14-4 AAC)
Coach: Dusty May (4-1 in NCAA Tournament, 1 Final Four)
Player to watch: Johnell Davis (AAC Player of the Year)
Northwestern
Strengths: Northwestern is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country, led by fifth-year senior Boo Buie, whose percentage jumped from 31.8 to 44.3 this season. Princeton transfer Ryan Langborg (41.5) and Brooks Barnhizer (35.2) make it rain as well. They’ve kept it up despite losing their starting shooting guard Ty Berry to a season-ending injury in early February. The Wildcats’ offense also boasts one of the lowest turnover percentages in the country (13.3).
Weaknesses: The 2023-24 squad is not as strong defensively as last year’s team that took No. 2-seed UCLA to the wire in the Round of 32. Opponents have averaged nearly 36 percent from three. Meanwhile, 7-foot center Matthew Nicholson, the Wildcats’ blocks leader and second-leading rebounder, has been out with an injury suffered March 2 against Iowa. His status for the NCAA Tournament is uncertain.
Outlook: Northwestern finished tied for third in the Big Ten and upset No. 1 Purdue for a second straight season, in addition to getting solid wins over tourney teams Dayton, Michigan State and Illinois. The Wildcats admirably withstood Berry’s injury, but their depth will be thin if Nicholson can’t return. They can win at least once if Buie is his usual sensational self, but Barnhizer, Langborg and some role players will need to catch fire in order to make the program’s first Sweet 16.
—Stewart Mandel
Strengths: Northwestern is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country, led by fifth-year senior Boo Buie, whose percentage jumped from 31.8 to 44.3 this season. Princeton transfer Ryan Langborg (41.5) and Brooks Barnhizer (35.2) make it rain as well. They’ve kept it up despite losing their starting shooting guard Ty Berry to a season-ending injury in early February. The Wildcats’ offense also boasts one of the lowest turnover percentages in the country (13.3).
Weaknesses: The 2023-24 squad is not as strong defensively as last year’s team that took No. 2-seed UCLA to the wire in the Round of 32. Opponents have averaged nearly 36 percent from three. Meanwhile, 7-foot center Matthew Nicholson, the Wildcats’ blocks leader and second-leading rebounder, has been out with an injury suffered March 2 against Iowa. His status for the NCAA Tournament is uncertain.
Outlook: Northwestern finished tied for third in the Big Ten and upset No. 1 Purdue for a second straight season, in addition to getting solid wins over tourney teams Dayton, Michigan State and Illinois. The Wildcats admirably withstood Berry’s injury, but their depth will be thin if Nicholson can’t return. They can win at least once if Buie is his usual sensational self, but Barnhizer, Langborg and some role players will need to catch fire in order to make the program’s first Sweet 16.
—Stewart Mandel
Strengths: Northwestern is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country, led by fifth-year senior Boo Buie, whose percentage jumped from 31.8 to 44.3 this season. Princeton transfer Ryan Langborg (41.5) and Brooks Barnhizer (35.2) make it rain as well. They’ve kept it up despite losing their starting shooting guard Ty Berry to a season-ending injury in early February. The Wildcats’ offense also boasts one of the lowest turnover percentages in the country (13.3).
Weaknesses: The 2023-24 squad is not as strong defensively as last year’s team that took No. 2-seed UCLA to the wire in the Round of 32. Opponents have averaged nearly 36 percent from three. Meanwhile, 7-foot center Matthew Nicholson, the Wildcats’ blocks leader and second-leading rebounder, has been out with an injury suffered March 2 against Iowa. His status for the NCAA Tournament is uncertain.
Outlook: Northwestern finished tied for third in the Big Ten and upset No. 1 Purdue for a second straight season, in addition to getting solid wins over tourney teams Dayton, Michigan State and Illinois. The Wildcats admirably withstood Berry’s injury, but their depth will be thin if Nicholson can’t return. They can win at least once if Buie is his usual sensational self, but Barnhizer, Langborg and some role players will need to catch fire in order to make the program’s first Sweet 16.
—Stewart Mandel
Team in 16 words: Northwestern’s first-ever back-to-back tournament team boasts veteran star Boo Buie but has been stung by injuries.
Record: 21-11 (12-8 Big Ten)
Coach: Chris Collins (2-2 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Boo Buie (first-team All-Big Ten)
Drake
Strengths: Drake is pugnacious scoring the basketball. The Bulldogs ranked in the top 30 nationally in effective field-goal percentage offense and made a spectacular 36.5 percent from three. They commit few turnovers, deliver smooth extra passes and pile up points. Fifteen times this season the Bulldogs have scored more than 80 points in a game. Tucker DeVries’ stunning versatility, Darnell Brodie’s mammoth size and Atin Wright’s scoring prowess make Drake tough to contain.
Weaknesses: On the defensive end, Drake is at times tofu tasteless. The Bulldogs ranked No. 208 in effective field-goal percentage defense. Zeroing in, they allowed an abhorrent 52 percent inside the arc. Brodie encounters are a challenge, but if the whistles mount? The Bulldogs lack meaningful depth. Bottom line, they’ll need to shoot well versus teams with size.
Outlook: Drake defeated MVC heartthrob Indiana State twice and logged a non-conference victory over a stellar Nevada team. It is a school not to underestimate. DeVries is a sensational ball handler and scorer who, at 6-foot-7, is a matchup nightmare. As long as Des Moines’ finest can adequately defend and avoid foul trouble, these Bulldogs are entirely capable of donning Cinderella’s glass slipper. Love the Drake.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Drake is pugnacious scoring the basketball. The Bulldogs ranked in the top 30 nationally in effective field-goal percentage offense and made a spectacular 36.5 percent from three. They commit few turnovers, deliver smooth extra passes and pile up points. Fifteen times this season the Bulldogs have scored more than 80 points in a game. Tucker DeVries’ stunning versatility, Darnell Brodie’s mammoth size and Atin Wright’s scoring prowess make Drake tough to contain.
Weaknesses: On the defensive end, Drake is at times tofu tasteless. The Bulldogs ranked No. 208 in effective field-goal percentage defense. Zeroing in, they allowed an abhorrent 52 percent inside the arc. Brodie encounters are a challenge, but if the whistles mount? The Bulldogs lack meaningful depth. Bottom line, they’ll need to shoot well versus teams with size.
Outlook: Drake defeated MVC heartthrob Indiana State twice and logged a non-conference victory over a stellar Nevada team. It is a school not to underestimate. DeVries is a sensational ball handler and scorer who, at 6-foot-7, is a matchup nightmare. As long as Des Moines’ finest can adequately defend and avoid foul trouble, these Bulldogs are entirely capable of donning Cinderella’s glass slipper. Love the Drake.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: Drake is pugnacious scoring the basketball. The Bulldogs ranked in the top 30 nationally in effective field-goal percentage offense and made a spectacular 36.5 percent from three. They commit few turnovers, deliver smooth extra passes and pile up points. Fifteen times this season the Bulldogs have scored more than 80 points in a game. Tucker DeVries’ stunning versatility, Darnell Brodie’s mammoth size and Atin Wright’s scoring prowess make Drake tough to contain.
Weaknesses: On the defensive end, Drake is at times tofu tasteless. The Bulldogs ranked No. 208 in effective field-goal percentage defense. Zeroing in, they allowed an abhorrent 52 percent inside the arc. Brodie encounters are a challenge, but if the whistles mount? The Bulldogs lack meaningful depth. Bottom line, they’ll need to shoot well versus teams with size.
Outlook: Drake defeated MVC heartthrob Indiana State twice and logged a non-conference victory over a stellar Nevada team. It is a school not to underestimate. DeVries is a sensational ball handler and scorer who, at 6-foot-7, is a matchup nightmare. As long as Des Moines’ finest can adequately defend and avoid foul trouble, these Bulldogs are entirely capable of donning Cinderella’s glass slipper. Love the Drake.
—Brad Evans
Team in 16 words: Well-coached, unintimidated and superb on offense, Drake is a team with buyable second weekend upside.
Record: 28-6 (16-4 MVC)
Coach: Darian DeVries (1-2 NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Tucker DeVries (MVC Player of the Year)
Duquesne
Strengths: You can’t spell Duquesne without a ‘D,’ which is entirely appropriate. Unshakeable when guarding the basketball, the Dukes locked down the opposition with steady ferocity. Exhibiting shifty hands, they forced a turnover on more than 19 percent of opponent possessions. Their physical on-ball onslaught will frustrate any team with subpar rock handlers.
Weaknesses: At No. 284 nationally in average height, per KenPom, Duquesne is often outmatched against strong interior teams. Unsurprisingly, the Dukes don’t rate very highly in terms of offensive and defensive rebounding. Keith Dambrot’s group also lacks pizzazz offensively. Over the regular season’s final month, they tallied a mediocre 1.07 points per possession, No. 172 nationally during the stretch. Whether scoring inside or out, they’re average, at best.
Outlook: Entering the NCAA Tournament sporting one of the longest active win streaks (eight games) on the collegiate circuit, the Dukes have reached their zenith at the most opportune time. Given their willingness to defend, generally methodical pace and overall experience, they’re somewhat interesting. However, expectations should be tempered. Duquesne recorded zero victories against the tournament at-large field.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: You can’t spell Duquesne without a ‘D,’ which is entirely appropriate. Unshakeable when guarding the basketball, the Dukes locked down the opposition with steady ferocity. Exhibiting shifty hands, they forced a turnover on more than 19 percent of opponent possessions. Their physical on-ball onslaught will frustrate any team with subpar rock handlers.
Weaknesses: At No. 284 nationally in average height, per KenPom, Duquesne is often outmatched against strong interior teams. Unsurprisingly, the Dukes don’t rate very highly in terms of offensive and defensive rebounding. Keith Dambrot’s group also lacks pizzazz offensively. Over the regular season’s final month, they tallied a mediocre 1.07 points per possession, No. 172 nationally during the stretch. Whether scoring inside or out, they’re average, at best.
Outlook: Entering the NCAA Tournament sporting one of the longest active win streaks (eight games) on the collegiate circuit, the Dukes have reached their zenith at the most opportune time. Given their willingness to defend, generally methodical pace and overall experience, they’re somewhat interesting. However, expectations should be tempered. Duquesne recorded zero victories against the tournament at-large field.
—Brad Evans
Strengths: You can’t spell Duquesne without a ‘D,’ which is entirely appropriate. Unshakeable when guarding the basketball, the Dukes locked down the opposition with steady ferocity. Exhibiting shifty hands, they forced a turnover on more than 19 percent of opponent possessions. Their physical on-ball onslaught will frustrate any team with subpar rock handlers.
Weaknesses: At No. 284 nationally in average height, per KenPom, Duquesne is often outmatched against strong interior teams. Unsurprisingly, the Dukes don’t rate very highly in terms of offensive and defensive rebounding. Keith Dambrot’s group also lacks pizzazz offensively. Over the regular season’s final month, they tallied a mediocre 1.07 points per possession, No. 172 nationally during the stretch. Whether scoring inside or out, they’re average, at best.
Outlook: Entering the NCAA Tournament sporting one of the longest active win streaks (eight games) on the collegiate circuit, the Dukes have reached their zenith at the most opportune time. Given their willingness to defend, generally methodical pace and overall experience, they’re somewhat interesting. However, expectations should be tempered. Duquesne recorded zero victories against the tournament at-large field.
—Brad Evans
Team in 16 words: Duquesne landed a haymaker on VCU to reach the Dance for the first time since 1977.
Record: 24-11 (10-8 A-10)
Coach: Keith Dambrot (0-3 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Jimmy Clark III (second-team All-A-10)
UAB
Strengths: UAB can score. The Blazers scored more than 85 points seven times this season and even hit 100 once. It was that 100-point game that was the impetus for the giant Temple betting scandal from a couple of weeks ago. Bart Torvik says they're 62nd in the nation in adjusted efficiencies and 20th in offensive rebounding percentage. Plus, Tony Toney is probably good for at least one highlight-reel dunk. Junior Yaxel Lendeborg earned first-team All-American Athletic Conference honors for a reason and he’s one of the best defensive rebounders in the country according to KenPom.
Weaknesses: This is a team that experienced a three-game mid-season losing streak to McNeese, Southern Miss and Arkansas State. Plus late-season back-to-back losses to Wichita State and Memphis.
Outlook: The Blazers won all three games in the AAC Tournament by double digits. The resume doesn't scream upset unless UAB has figured something out since earlier this season.
—Nando Di Fino
Strengths: UAB can score. The Blazers scored more than 85 points seven times this season and even hit 100 once. It was that 100-point game that was the impetus for the giant Temple betting scandal from a couple of weeks ago. Bart Torvik says they're 62nd in the nation in adjusted efficiencies and 20th in offensive rebounding percentage. Plus, Tony Toney is probably good for at least one highlight-reel dunk. Junior Yaxel Lendeborg earned first-team All-American Athletic Conference honors for a reason and he’s one of the best defensive rebounders in the country according to KenPom.
Weaknesses: This is a team that experienced a three-game mid-season losing streak to McNeese, Southern Miss and Arkansas State. Plus late-season back-to-back losses to Wichita State and Memphis.
Outlook: The Blazers won all three games in the AAC Tournament by double digits. The resume doesn't scream upset unless UAB has figured something out since earlier this season.
—Nando Di Fino
Strengths: UAB can score. The Blazers scored more than 85 points seven times this season and even hit 100 once. It was that 100-point game that was the impetus for the giant Temple betting scandal from a couple of weeks ago. Bart Torvik says they're 62nd in the nation in adjusted efficiencies and 20th in offensive rebounding percentage. Plus, Tony Toney is probably good for at least one highlight-reel dunk. Junior Yaxel Lendeborg earned first-team All-American Athletic Conference honors for a reason and he’s one of the best defensive rebounders in the country according to KenPom.
Weaknesses: This is a team that experienced a three-game mid-season losing streak to McNeese, Southern Miss and Arkansas State. Plus late-season back-to-back losses to Wichita State and Memphis.
Outlook: The Blazers won all three games in the AAC Tournament by double digits. The resume doesn't scream upset unless UAB has figured something out since earlier this season.
—Nando Di Fino
Team in 16 words: A high-pace, high-scoring team with an elite dunker that has won close games.
Record: 23-11 (12-6 AAC)
Coach: Andy Kennedy (2-3 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Yaxel Lendeborg (first-team All-AAC)
Yale
Outlook: Full of future check-writers, Yale is a team capable of cashing. The Bulldogs, alongside Princeton and Cornell, were the smartest of the smartypants, setting the pace in myriad categories.
During the regular season, they ranked No. 82 in effective field goal percentage offense, netting 52.8 percent inside the arc and 34.7 percent outside of it. Power forward Matt Knowling and long point guard Bez Mbeng were particularly effective on near-proximity shots. Both have combined for 59.1 percent from 2. Most impactful is 7-footer Danny Wolf, who not only flexes in the post but also launches accurate arrows from distance (34.2 percent on 3-pointers).
James Jones’ crew isn’t the most studious defensively (No. 134 eFG percentage D), but its assertiveness on the glass and cautiousness with the rock make Yale a decent Cinderella candidate.
—Brad Evans
Outlook: Full of future check-writers, Yale is a team capable of cashing. The Bulldogs, alongside Princeton and Cornell, were the smartest of the smartypants, setting the pace in myriad categories.
During the regular season, they ranked No. 82 in effective field goal percentage offense, netting 52.8 percent inside the arc and 34.7 percent outside of it. Power forward Matt Knowling and long point guard Bez Mbeng were particularly effective on near-proximity shots. Both have combined for 59.1 percent from 2. Most impactful is 7-footer Danny Wolf, who not only flexes in the post but also launches accurate arrows from distance (34.2 percent on 3-pointers).
James Jones’ crew isn’t the most studious defensively (No. 134 eFG percentage D), but its assertiveness on the glass and cautiousness with the rock make Yale a decent Cinderella candidate.
—Brad Evans
Outlook: Full of future check-writers, Yale is a team capable of cashing. The Bulldogs, alongside Princeton and Cornell, were the smartest of the smartypants, setting the pace in myriad categories.
During the regular season, they ranked No. 82 in effective field goal percentage offense, netting 52.8 percent inside the arc and 34.7 percent outside of it. Power forward Matt Knowling and long point guard Bez Mbeng were particularly effective on near-proximity shots. Both have combined for 59.1 percent from 2. Most impactful is 7-footer Danny Wolf, who not only flexes in the post but also launches accurate arrows from distance (34.2 percent on 3-pointers).
James Jones’ crew isn’t the most studious defensively (No. 134 eFG percentage D), but its assertiveness on the glass and cautiousness with the rock make Yale a decent Cinderella candidate.
—Brad Evans
Team in 16 words: Yale, much like its endowment, is a worthy investment for the upset-minded.
Record: 22-9 (11-3 Ivy League)
Coach: James Jones (1-3 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Danny Wolf (first-team All-Ivy)
Morehead State
Outlook: The Eagles lost Mark Freeman — the preseason Ohio Valley Player of the Year — a week before the season began and reeled off 26 wins. That’s reason enough to be impressed by Preston Spradlin’s squad.
But there’s more! The Eagles can shoot from outside (36.1 percent) and do so frequently (45 percent of their shots are beyond the arc). They have multiple ball-handlers who can initiate the offense, the size to throw at high-major teams inside, and a bonafide go-to guy in the 6-foot-7 Riley Minix (20.8 points per game). The Eagles may not win a game, but they’re going to be a tough out.
—Mike Miller
Outlook: The Eagles lost Mark Freeman — the preseason Ohio Valley Player of the Year — a week before the season began and reeled off 26 wins. That’s reason enough to be impressed by Preston Spradlin’s squad.
But there’s more! The Eagles can shoot from outside (36.1 percent) and do so frequently (45 percent of their shots are beyond the arc). They have multiple ball-handlers who can initiate the offense, the size to throw at high-major teams inside, and a bonafide go-to guy in the 6-foot-7 Riley Minix (20.8 points per game). The Eagles may not win a game, but they’re going to be a tough out.
—Mike Miller
Outlook: The Eagles lost Mark Freeman — the preseason Ohio Valley Player of the Year — a week before the season began and reeled off 26 wins. That’s reason enough to be impressed by Preston Spradlin’s squad.
But there’s more! The Eagles can shoot from outside (36.1 percent) and do so frequently (45 percent of their shots are beyond the arc). They have multiple ball-handlers who can initiate the offense, the size to throw at high-major teams inside, and a bonafide go-to guy in the 6-foot-7 Riley Minix (20.8 points per game). The Eagles may not win a game, but they’re going to be a tough out.
—Mike Miller
Team in 16 words: Ignore the November results. Morehead State won’t go quietly against a high-major team.
Record: 26-8 (14-4 OVC)
Coach: Preston Spradlin (0-1 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Riley Minix (OVC Player of the Year)
South Dakota State
Outlook: This was not the easiest season Eric Henderson has experienced in Brookings. The Jackrabbits lost their first four games and when Summit League play started, they were 3-7. But as he is wont to do, Hendo figured it out and won five in a row to close the regular season before rolling through the Summit League Tournament.
This is not your typical SDSU team. Part of the reason the Jackrabbits have struggled in past tournaments is that they just aren’t quite good enough defensively to hang with a power-conference opponent. That’s not the case this year.
And while this group is not among the offensive elite, what they do have at their disposal is a guard who can take over games in Zeke Mayo. Luke Appel’s development as a stretch big creates the space for Mayo to operate, and while the numbers don’t necessarily show it — they are 134th in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom as opposed to 14th in their 2022 trip to the dance — they have weapons. College basketball is a guard’s game, and you’ll struggle to find guards at the mid-major level better than Mayo.
I like the Jackrabbits to land themselves an upset.
—Rob Dauster
Outlook: This was not the easiest season Eric Henderson has experienced in Brookings. The Jackrabbits lost their first four games and when Summit League play started, they were 3-7. But as he is wont to do, Hendo figured it out and won five in a row to close the regular season before rolling through the Summit League Tournament.
This is not your typical SDSU team. Part of the reason the Jackrabbits have struggled in past tournaments is that they just aren’t quite good enough defensively to hang with a power-conference opponent. That’s not the case this year.
And while this group is not among the offensive elite, what they do have at their disposal is a guard who can take over games in Zeke Mayo. Luke Appel’s development as a stretch big creates the space for Mayo to operate, and while the numbers don’t necessarily show it — they are 134th in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom as opposed to 14th in their 2022 trip to the dance — they have weapons. College basketball is a guard’s game, and you’ll struggle to find guards at the mid-major level better than Mayo.
I like the Jackrabbits to land themselves an upset.
—Rob Dauster
Outlook: This was not the easiest season Eric Henderson has experienced in Brookings. The Jackrabbits lost their first four games and when Summit League play started, they were 3-7. But as he is wont to do, Hendo figured it out and won five in a row to close the regular season before rolling through the Summit League Tournament.
This is not your typical SDSU team. Part of the reason the Jackrabbits have struggled in past tournaments is that they just aren’t quite good enough defensively to hang with a power-conference opponent. That’s not the case this year.
And while this group is not among the offensive elite, what they do have at their disposal is a guard who can take over games in Zeke Mayo. Luke Appel’s development as a stretch big creates the space for Mayo to operate, and while the numbers don’t necessarily show it — they are 134th in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom as opposed to 14th in their 2022 trip to the dance — they have weapons. College basketball is a guard’s game, and you’ll struggle to find guards at the mid-major level better than Mayo.
I like the Jackrabbits to land themselves an upset.
—Rob Dauster
Team in 16 words: An elite guard. Size and shooting. A willing defense. That’s how upsets are made in March.
Record: 22-12 (12-4 Summit League)
Coach: Eric Henderson (0-1 in NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Zeke Mayo (Summit League Player of the Year)
Stetson
Outlook: The Stetson Hatters have their first NCAA bid, as does Donnie Jones, after 6-foot-3 junior guard Jalen Blackmon poured in a career-high 43 points in the Atlantic Sun Tournament title game.
This team looked to be in trouble in February when 6-foot-9 senior forward Josh Smith was lost for the season to a knee injury, but Jones went with a four-guard lineup and his perimeter group — led by Blackmon and his 21.5 points a game — got cooking. Stephan Swenson is one of three other players averaging double figures in scoring (13.8), and he creates much of the offense (5.9 assists per game).
The Hatters do have size with Aubin Gateretse (11.8 points, 7.6 rebounds per game) and 7-footer Treyton Thompson. But mostly, this team specializes in getting shots up and hitting at a high rate. Stetson is 37th nationally in 3-point accuracy (36.5 percent). The Hatters are 53rd in effective field-goal percentage (53.4), and they shoot great from the line as well — 76.3 percent.
The defensive numbers are not good — this team is right around 350th in defensive efficiency. But those bigs help some. Stetson’s block percentage of 8.1 percent ranks in the top 90 nationally. The Hatters won 85-82 at UCF and gave Cincinnati a tough game on the road before falling 83-75. They figure to have a tough time getting stops. But any team that shoots it this well has a chance to make things interesting.
—Joe Rexrode
Outlook: The Stetson Hatters have their first NCAA bid, as does Donnie Jones, after 6-foot-3 junior guard Jalen Blackmon poured in a career-high 43 points in the Atlantic Sun Tournament title game.
This team looked to be in trouble in February when 6-foot-9 senior forward Josh Smith was lost for the season to a knee injury, but Jones went with a four-guard lineup and his perimeter group — led by Blackmon and his 21.5 points a game — got cooking. Stephan Swenson is one of three other players averaging double figures in scoring (13.8), and he creates much of the offense (5.9 assists per game).
The Hatters do have size with Aubin Gateretse (11.8 points, 7.6 rebounds per game) and 7-footer Treyton Thompson. But mostly, this team specializes in getting shots up and hitting at a high rate. Stetson is 37th nationally in 3-point accuracy (36.5 percent). The Hatters are 53rd in effective field-goal percentage (53.4), and they shoot great from the line as well — 76.3 percent.
The defensive numbers are not good — this team is right around 350th in defensive efficiency. But those bigs help some. Stetson’s block percentage of 8.1 percent ranks in the top 90 nationally. The Hatters won 85-82 at UCF and gave Cincinnati a tough game on the road before falling 83-75. They figure to have a tough time getting stops. But any team that shoots it this well has a chance to make things interesting.
—Joe Rexrode
Outlook: The Stetson Hatters have their first NCAA bid, as does Donnie Jones, after 6-foot-3 junior guard Jalen Blackmon poured in a career-high 43 points in the Atlantic Sun Tournament title game.
This team looked to be in trouble in February when 6-foot-9 senior forward Josh Smith was lost for the season to a knee injury, but Jones went with a four-guard lineup and his perimeter group — led by Blackmon and his 21.5 points a game — got cooking. Stephan Swenson is one of three other players averaging double figures in scoring (13.8), and he creates much of the offense (5.9 assists per game).
The Hatters do have size with Aubin Gateretse (11.8 points, 7.6 rebounds per game) and 7-footer Treyton Thompson. But mostly, this team specializes in getting shots up and hitting at a high rate. Stetson is 37th nationally in 3-point accuracy (36.5 percent). The Hatters are 53rd in effective field-goal percentage (53.4), and they shoot great from the line as well — 76.3 percent.
The defensive numbers are not good — this team is right around 350th in defensive efficiency. But those bigs help some. Stetson’s block percentage of 8.1 percent ranks in the top 90 nationally. The Hatters won 85-82 at UCF and gave Cincinnati a tough game on the road before falling 83-75. They figure to have a tough time getting stops. But any team that shoots it this well has a chance to make things interesting.
—Joe Rexrode
Team in 16 words: If you like guard-heavy teams that run relentlessly and shoot from deep, you’ll love Stetson.
Record: 22-12 (11-5 Atlantic Sun)
Coach: Donnie Jones (First NCAA Tournament)
Player to watch: Jalen Blackmon (first-team All-Atlantic Sun)
Contributors: Jayna Bardahl, Paul Bourdett, Gene Clemons, Mark Cooper, Rob Dauster, Brad Evans, Jeff Goodman, Stewart Mandel, Marc Mazzoni, Mike Miller, Joe Rexrode, Mark Ross, Eric Single
All odds via BetMGM.
About The Gaming Juice: From the mind of award-winning writer, FSWA Hall of Famer, show creator, producer, booming on-air voice and sporadically profitable bettor Brad Evans is The Gaming Juice. Covering the spectrum of sports — CBK, MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL and more — from a betting and fantasy perspective, The Gaming Juice is a site for gamers by a gamer. It’s built around accessibility, community and experiences. Best of all, FREE picks and pieces are posted daily. If you’re seeking engaging, entertaining and transparent content, give The Gaming Juice a squeeze and sign up for a FREE membership today. Get SEDUCED BY THE JUICE at TheGamingJuice.com.
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(Top photo: AP; Phelan M. Ebenhack, Nick Wass; design by Dan Goldfarb)