Reed Sheppard, Stephon Castle and 7 more NBA Draft prospects to watch in March

Who’s ready to do some NBA Draft homework?

With men’s college basketball’s major conference tournaments on tap this week and the NCAA Tournament just around the corner, these next two weeks are a great opportunity for fans of struggling pro teams to do some quick research on the better prospects for this June.

Before we get too deep in the weeds, let’s start with the 10,000-foot view: It’s an unusual draft this year on two levels. First, there is no consensus No. 1 pick right now, or anything even close; this is the most jumbled I’ve seen draft boards since the 2013 draft, when Anthony Bennett was the surprise top pick. Second, several of the best prospects aren’t actually in college basketball. Between G League Ignite and overseas leagues, it’s possible five players will be off the board before a single player is drafted from the NCAA.

Nonetheless, there’s talent every year, and this one is no exception. The key is separating the wheat from the chaff, and while this year might have an unusual amount of chaff, I assure you we will look back in 10 years and realize there were some useful grains.

What follows, then, is a bit of a viewing guide toward the most interesting players to keep an eye on over the next couple weeks, both based on their likelihood of actually participating in meaningful games and on the relative question marks about their games that might get resolved for fans (and scouts) in that time.

This isn’t necessarily a ranking of my top college prospects but a ranking of how much I’d want to track each of them for draft purposes. Here are my top nine players to watch in the madness of March:

1. Reed Sheppard, 6-2 freshman guard, Kentucky

One of the interesting subplots of the past few months has been seeing evaluators try to avoid the conclusion that Reed Sheppard is the best NCAA prospect despite having the evidence punch them in the face every day. Of late, however, Sheppard’s play seems to have won over even his biggest skeptics. He was dominant — again — in Kentucky’s 85-81 win over No. 4 Tennessee on Saturday, finishing with a 27-6-5 line on just 14 shots.

Inexplicably coming off the bench (along with Kentucky’s other likely lottery-bound freshman guard Rob Dillingham) and thus limited to 29 minutes per game, Sheppard has defensive stats that jump off the page. He’s averaging 4.7 steals per 100 possessions, second only to Iowa State’s Tamin Lipsey among major college players, and despite standing 6-2 with a 6-3 wingspan, has blocked 23 shots this season. The eye test backs this up; Kentucky isn’t good on defense, but Sheppard has been a terror.

Meanwhile, his outside shot has been cash. Sheppard is shooting 52.6 percent from 3 and 84.1 percent from the line, with hair-trigger speed on his 3-point launch. While you’d like to see him get more up than his 8.1 attempts per 100, he’s also been effective in the paint (55.7 percent on 2s); the biggest issue in his statistical record is a relatively low usage rate, which can be explained partly by how often he’s shared the court with Dillingham and partly by John Calipari’s multi-decade track record of being the best defense against talented guards.

Nitpickers can have some fun around the edges, perhaps. Sheppard hasn’t had the keys to the offense at Kentucky and would likely need to be a full-time point guard as a pro; he’s been a bit more turnover-prone than you’d hope as well. And his shooting probably isn’t as good as his percentages indicate, because nobody is that good.

Finally, teams will surely fixate on Sheppard’s stature. But “I wish you were 2 inches taller” isn’t an actual weakness unless you can connect it to some other basketball deficiency; Sheppard’s tape and stat lines don’t betray any shortcomings that you can link back to his size.

GO DEEPER

Reed Sheppard and Kentucky, a love story. 'The whole state is connected to him'

2. Stephon Castle, 6-6 freshman guard, Connecticut

While Stephon Castle’s teammate, the massive sophomore Donovan Clingan, is a likely lottery pick, he’s also more of a known quantity at this point. (I wrote about Clingan after my visit to Hartford for UConn-Marquette last month.)

Castle is the more challenging evaluation for scouts, a one-and-done playing as the fifth option on a stacked Huskies team trying to repeat as national champions. He seems clearly capable of more but also has some offensive limitations that could hold him back even at the next level. Most notably, his jump shot is inconsistent — he’s at 30.1 percent from 3 on low volume and has a slow release that at times looks as though his arms are fighting each other.

However, Castle’s combination of size, ball skills and athleticism hints at bigger things. He wowed scouts with 14 points, six rebounds, four steals, three assists and nary a turnover in Connecticut’s rout of Providence this past weekend; on the season, he averages more than two dimes for every turnover and, even with the giant Clingan soaking up so many boards, has an impressive 9.7 percent rebound rate in Big East play.

Stephon Castle (@StephonCastle) with highlight after highlight in no. 3 UConn’s dominant win over SH.

The 6’6 CG is currently projected as a Loterry pick. Showed off his athleticism going to the rim and smooth pace.

21PTS | 9/12FG | 3/3 FT | 3AST | 4REB | 2STL pic.twitter.com/CvNUJhWFAi

— GREENLIGHT MEDIA (@atlgreenlight) March 3, 2024

Castle could really push into the top half of the lottery with a strong March, especially because scouts are still catching up on him after he missed time early in the season with a knee injury. Given the strength of his team, he may still have nine more games to showcase himself.

3. Cody Williams, 6-8 freshman forward, Colorado

Pour one out for execs’ annual Las Vegas trip in March. With the implosion of the Pac-12 Conference, also gone is the one-stop shopping for front offices to catch up on every player west of the Rockies in one sitting by catching the West Coast, Mountain West and Pac-12 tournaments in succession in Sin City.

However, the final version of this should be an absolute banger for scouts, with the Pac-12 punching far above its weight in prospects and an unusually strong year in the Mountain West enabling them to fill in around the edges.

Of particular note for talent evaluators is the Colorado squad that could have three players selected in the upcoming draft. While senior guard K.J. Simpson is a first-round sleeper and German forward Tristan da Silva a sniper candidate in Round 2, the focus will be on Williams.

The brother of Oklahoma City’s Jalen Williams, Cody has had an up-and-down freshman year for the Buffaloes. He has compelling physical tools as a true wing who stands 6-8 and is comfortable pushing in transition and shooting floaters on the move.

However, he’s also had trouble putting potential into practice at times. He’s a 70.8 percent foul shooter and has only taken 35 3-point attempts all season, with a low push shot that is hard to get to on the move. On the ball, Williams keeps his head up for hit-ahead passes, but that has mostly been as a one-way, right-handed driver.

Overall, Williams’ percentages and numbers are solid (13.7 ppg on 59.0 percent shooting; 17.5 PER in Pac-12 play), but teams looking at taking him in the top 10 — or even top five — will want to see more signs of star-level ceiling. In particular, analytics models might not be a huge fan of Williams given his relatively low rates of blocks, steals, rebounds and assists. Defensively, opponents don’t feel his size; he has a habit of giving up ground then letting his thin frame get nudged out of the way, with a particularly rude example in the Isaiah Collier clip further down.

The other issue for scouts is whether he plays at all. Williams sat out a weekend series against Oregon and Oregon State with an ankle injury and missed a month earlier this season with a wrist problem. Colorado enters the Pac-12 tournament on the NCAA Tournament bubble and likely needs to win at least once to make the field; otherwise, you’ll need to check the NIT pairings to find more of Williams.

Colorado’s Cody Williams is the brother of Oklahoma City’s Jalen Williams. (Darren Yamashita / USA Today)

4. Isaiah Collier, 6-5 freshman guard, USC

Blink, and you might miss it: USC plays the Pac-12 tournament opener against Washington on Wednesday afternoon, and the Trojans’ season will end if they lose.

I caught Collier in USC’s upset win over Arizona this past weekend and was going to make him my Prospect of the Week until my Monday column was clocking in at roughly the length of “War and Peace.” So let’s talk about Collier here instead.

While I was seeing Bronny James in L.A., the main event for scouts was his teammate Collier, who has reinvigorated his flagging draft stock since returning from a midseason injury by averaging 20 points and two steals over his last seven games. He scored 16 in the Trojans’ upset win over Arizona, including a crowd-pleasing breakaway dunk that basically put a bow on the win, and continues to show the first-step burst to score at a high rate in the NBA. Here’s one example from earlier this season:

Isaiah Collier screen reject is an automatic paint touch pic.twitter.com/vz9S5BTKW1

— Gabe (@Hoops_GE) March 7, 2024

Notably for scouts, Collier also hop-stepped into a semi-contested catch-and-shoot 3 for one of his buckets. Outside shooting has been one of the question marks on his scouting report — 32.9 percent from 3, 67.8 percent from the line — with a flick off his forehead that doesn’t always repeat the same arc. Collier also has been reluctant to let fly at times, with only 76 attempts on the season; here, for instance, he eats the ball rather than take the 3 the defense has happily conceded.

Collier’s burst off the dribble is accompanied by the power to shrug off defenders on his way to the cup, enabling him to finish in the trees effectively (and also amass a massive free-throw rate) even though he’s mostly doing it below the rim. Watch here, for instance, as he puts a shoulder into Colorado’s Williams (discussed above) and it’s all over; even though the 6-8 Williams should have the advantage closer to the rim, it’s tough for him to make a play while he’s impaled on the stanchion.

Collier also has made strides as a passer and distributor, cutting what was a sky-high early-season turnover rate to something a bit more manageable. He has a habit of throwing almost comically inaccurate passes and had two such instances in the Arizona game (an alley-oop pass thrown to the top of the Hollywood sign and an ankle-biter kickout that nearly tripped its recipient) and can get wildly out of control at times.

While it’s important to remember that he’s labored under a huge usage rate (30.4 percent) as a freshman on a bad team, it’s not hard to build a compendium of drives or shots that end up looking something like this:

That said, Collier’s turnover rate did level off somewhat in conference play, to a still-not-great 14.5 percent. As I noted above, Collier may only have one college game left, but if the Trojans win Wednesday, they’ll get a rematch against Arizona on Thursday; to extend his college career beyond this weekend would require USC to sweep four straight games and seize an automatic NCAA bid by winning the Pac 12 tournament.

5. Dalton Knecht, 6-7 senior forward, Tennessee

A late bloomer who transferred in from Northern Colorado and has taken the SEC by storm, Dalton Knecht hung a 40-burger on Kentucky in a losing effort Saturday, and while he wasn’t super-efficient about it (29 shot attempts and four turnovers), he’s wielded his scoring scalpel much more effectively in other SEC contests. Knecht’s stats in conference games are almost Maravichian: 45.7 points per 100, 42.4 percent from 3, 60.3 percent true shooting, 31.7 PER.

Those 3-point shooting numbers are particularly impressive given the volume and difficulty. As Plan A, B and C for every opposing defense, Knecht makes attempts that are often contested looks off the dribble or running catch-and-shoots flying off pin-downs. Squint and you can see Klay Thompson.

Knecht’s shot has more of a line-drive trajectory than you’d prefer, and his 73.4 percent mark from the line indicates that his current 3-point percentage might be at the high end of what we should expect long term. But movement shooters who can connect at anywhere near this rate are hugely valuable in the NBA — the New Orleans Pelicans’ Jordan Hawkins, for instance, was a 2023 lottery pick based almost entirely off this skill, and he doesn’t have anywhere near the physical profile or shot-creation skill of Knecht.

The question now for scouts is basically one of “How high?” in terms of where Knecht’s shooting skill will put him in the NBA next year, but teams will be watching his lateral movement closely to see how well he can hold up as a wing defender. As an older player who will be 23 on draft night, Knecht also will be evaluated through the lens of being four years older than most of the players who will go in the top 20.

Tennessee may get a rematch with Kentucky in the SEC tournament this week, and regardless should be no worse than a No. 2 seed for the NCAA Tournament.

6. Kyle Filipowski, 6-11 sophomore big, Duke

While all Kyle Filipowski-rattled discourse is currently focused on The Trip and whether the ghost of Grayson Allen has poisoned him with Dukie Unlikability Cooties, the more relevant consideration for scouts is seeing how Filipowski fares against the top-tier offenses he’ll likely face during the late rounds of the upcoming ACC and NCAA tournaments.

Filipowski is clearly talented and productive, but the topic that warrants further scrutiny is whether his best pro position is the four or the five. Filipowski shows flashes of perimeter skill and can take like-sized players off the dribble all day, but he’s also a 31.4 percent career 3-point shooter and at 71.8 percent career from the line.

While he’s not some plodder out of central casting — he averages 2.4 steals per 100 for his career — it still seems questionable whether Filipowski’s feet can hold up on defense as a modern four. However, playing him at the five comes with its own problems; his rebound and block rates are underwhelming for a center, and he’s neither a rim runner nor a post-up masher.

The ultimate question, then, is whether Filipowski is a big more like Al Horford in that he can toggle between the four and five and play effectively at both, or whether he’s more like Frank Kaminsky and can’t quite do either. There’s only $100 million or so riding on the answer.

7. Oso Ighodaro, 6-11 senior center, Marquette

Oso Ighodaro has been one of this draft cycle’s more difficult evaluations, as a skilled big man who is also a non-shooting big. I’m a big believer in the idea that bigs who can pass usually figure out the rest, and some quirky-but-successful bigs of recent yore (Alperen Şengün, Nikola Jokić and, of course from my experience, Marc Gasol) are the proof of that concept. Well, Ighodaro can definitely pass; he averaged six dimes per 100 possessions in 2022-23 and is at 5.1 per 100 this season.

Ighorado also has a good handle for his size; his team even runs inverted pick-and-rolls for him at times. With that skill set, one can easily envision him operating at the elbows in a pro offense. He’s a big fan of short floaters and shoots almost Şengün-esque push shots from 10 feet, plus can get to more standard jump hooks in the paint, especially against mismatches.

What’s missing is the more nuts-and-bolts big man domination you’d expect to see at this level. His rebound rate of just 13.5 percent is piddling for a college five, and the shot-blocking numbers are just OK. He hasn’t been an impactful rim runner either, with a tendency to turn down contact and rim attacks and settle for those short floaters. Additionally, drafting upperclassmen centers hasn’t been a very productive strategy in recent times; Ighodaro will be 22 when he enters his first NBA season.

On the other hand, he’s a legit 6-11 and has improved every year, and his fit at the pro level is perhaps neater than it is in college. Is that enough to get him into the top 20 in a draft where all the college bigs have question marks? A deep run from what is likely to be a No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament could help his cause.

Marquette’s Oso Ighodaro shoots over Connecticut big man Donovan Clingan. (Jeff Hanisch / USA Today)

8. Devin Carter, 6-3 junior guard, Providence

The son of former Heat guard (and University of Hawai’i legend) Anthony Carter, the apple didn’t fall far from the tree here. Devin Carter might be this year’s version of Jaime Jaquez Jr., a tough, smart player who manages to be incredibly effective despite lacking a buttery stroke or electric athleticism.

Old-timers who saw his pops will appreciate Devin shooting moon-ball jumpers on the exact same trajectory, despite a different release point. The younger Carter also has improved on accuracy this season, knocking down 38.5 percent from 3 (up from 29.9 percent as a sophomore) while nearly doubling his volume from a year earlier. Despite standing only 6-3, Carter is a beast on the glass, with a monstrous 15.3 percent rebound rate in Big East games; his defensive rebound rate is percentage points away from leading the conference.

Carter filled the stat sheet Saturday against mighty UConn, with 24 points, 15 rebounds, four assists, two blocks and two steals; unfortunately, his team was down by three touchdowns moments after the opening tip and struggled to ever make it a game. That type of output has been par for the course this year, however, as the junior guard has a 29.4 PER in Big East games with eye-popping 32.1-14.2-5.9 per 100 possession stats.

Currently pegged as a mid-to-late first-rounder, Carter has scouts wondering if his shooting is real and whether his on-ball playmaking can handle moving to the point full time; otherwise, he becomes a mildly interesting undersized two. Providence also needs at least one win this week to cement an NCAA Tournament bid; otherwise, the Friars are likely headed to the NIT. Carter’s squad should have a layup in the opening round Thursday against lowly Georgetown before a stern test against a strong Creighton team.

9. Payton Sandfort, 6-7 junior forward, Iowa

One of the things I’ve asked scouts I run into is where they’ll be headed for conference tournament week. Thus far, none have told me they’re going to the Big Ten tournament; unusually for a power conference, it is something of a wasteland when it comes to NBA talent this season and may not have a single player picked in the first round.

A few very familiar players, including Purdue’s Zach Edey and Indiana’s Kel’El Ware, could break through into the top 30. But as far as a potential late riser to watch, Sandfort is the Big Ten’s most interesting one.

The junior’s combination of size (6-7) and shooting (90.1 percent career from the line, 13.9 3-point launches per 100 possessions) automatically gets him on the radar, and he’s not just some standstill catch-and-shoot fungo hitter either. Sandfort had the first triple-double in Iowa men’s basketball history(!) last week when he dropped a 26-10-10 line against Penn State. (Caitlin Clark probably had three in the time I needed to type that sentence.)

Sandfort intrigues with his passing skill (five dimes per 100 and more than two for every turnover) and punches above his weight on the glass with an 11.2 percent rebound rate in Big Ten games. The next question is lateral movement; scouts want to see him defend against speed. He won’t get much of that in the plodding Big Ten, but he might if Iowa sneaks an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Iowa is firmly on the bubble, opening its Big Ten tourney on Thursday against Ohio State before a potential second-round game against a tough, athletic Illinois team that held Sandfort in check last weekend. The Hawkeyes likely need to win at least twice to get in; otherwise, diehards can check those NIT listings.