Gardner Minshew likely to compete with Aidan O’Connell for Raiders’ starting QB job

The Las Vegas Raiders have agreed to terms with former Indianapolis Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew on a two-year, $25 million deal with $15 million guaranteed, a league source confirmed to The Athletic on Monday.

Minshew, 27, will likely compete for the starting job in Las Vegas with second-year quarterback Aidan O’Connell and possibly a 2024 NFL Draft pick.

He filled in well for injured 2023 No. 4 pick Anthony Richardson last season with the Colts. Minshew threw for 3,305 yards with 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions as Indianapolis went 7-6 with him as the starter.

This will be the fourth stop in six seasons for the 2019 fifth-round pick. He played with the Jacksonville Jaguars for two seasons before being traded to the Philadelphia Eagles leading up to the 2021 season. After two years in Philly, Minshew landed with the Colts last offseason.

In five NFL seasons, he has started 37 games and thrown for 9,937 yards with 59 touchdowns and 24 interceptions, resulting in a 90.2 passer rating.

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Raiders have agreed to terms with QB Gardner Minshew on a 2-year deal. (via @rapsheet) pic.twitter.com/Lzy1bOgU7P

— NFL (@NFL) March 11, 2024

How he fits

The Raiders committed a significant amount of money to Minshew, but he’s likely to compete with O’Connell for the starting quarterback job. O’Connell started 10 games for Las Vegas last season and played at a decent level considering he wasn’t expected to play much as a rookie. He’s well regarded by the Raiders and isn’t going to hand the job over to Minshew.

Minshew’s signing also doesn’t rule out the possibility that the Raiders could explore selecting a quarterback in next month’s draft. It’s conceivable that this ends up being a three-way competition between Minshew, O’Connell and a rookie.

2024 impact

For this move to be worth it for the Raiders, Minshew needs to win the starting job. Having a capable backup quarterback on the roster is important, but they could’ve landed a player to fill that role for much less money.

History

Minshew was underwhelming for the Colts last season. He completed 62.2 percent of his passes (26th in the league), averaged 212.8 passing yards per game, accounted for 18 touchdowns (T-23rd) and committed 14 turnovers (T-11th most). It was an up-and-down campaign for Minshew with some exciting highs and some miserable lows. Generally speaking, that sums up the caliber of player he has been thus far.

From 2019 to 2023, Minshew ranks 36th in the NFL in completion percentage, 31st in yards per attempt and 22nd in touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has been a consistently below-average player.

Cap update

To determine how much cap space the Raiders have, we’ll need to learn more about the structure of both Minshew’s and defensive tackle Christian Wilkins’ contracts. Over the Cap estimated the Raiders had about $36.1 million in cap space before signing Wilkins, but that doesn’t factor in the cap relief for releasing quarterback Brian Hoyer and defensive tackle Jerry Tillery and the cap hit for re-signing running back Ameer Abdullah. If the Raiders need to create more space, however, that should be easy to accomplish.

The Raiders are expected to move on from quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and receiver Hunter Renfrow. Cutting Garoppolo would save $11.26 million, and letting Renfrow go would save $8.21 million. They could also extend players already on the roster or restructure existing contracts to create additional cap space.

Outlook

The Raiders offense feels shaky right now. Their cache of offensive weapons took a hit Monday when they lost running back Josh Jacobs to the Packers. They still have a solid collection of offensive talent featuring receivers Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker, tight end Michael Mayer and running back Zamir White, but the unit finished 23rd in scoring last season.

For the offense to improve, the Raiders will need coordinator Luke Getsy to be an upgrade over former head coach Josh McDaniels as the offensive play caller. They’ll also need to see improved play from the offensive line and have Minshew play much better than he has in recent seasons. It’s possible that could all come together, but it feels like a stretch for 2024.

Required reading

(Photo: Cooper Neill / Getty Images)