College basketball conference tournament projections, best bets: Analytical model predicts Championship Week

Conference tournament season is in full swing, with a few tournaments already done and a handful more underway. The final 17 tournaments get started this week, and I’ve modeled tournament championship chances for every team participating.

My college basketball projection model uses advanced metrics, adjusted for opponents, from more than 10 years of data. From there, I simulate each college basketball tournament one million times to get projected odds for each team to secure an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.

I also pick out some best bets depending on which projections show value compared to betting odds. Today, we’re covering the tournaments that commenced this week, but if you want to track everything, here are the picks from the first week, which still has some teams alive.

Past performance:

2022 conference tournament future bets: 8-16, +7.48 units, +46.5% ROI
2023 conference tournament future bets: 5-6, +5.28 units, +71.8% ROI

2024 Conference Tournament Best Bets

Odds from BetMGM. Always shop around for best prices on odds.

AAC: FAU +185 (risk 1.5 units)
AAC: UAB +1600 (risk 0.1 units)
A10: Loyola Chicago +650 (risk 0.25 units)
A10: George Mason +1600 (risk 0.1 units)
ACC: Duke +190 (risk 0.5 units)
Big Ten: Wisconsin +1500 (risk 0.1 units)
Big Ten: Ohio State +3500 (risk 0.1 units)
MAAC: Iona +900 (risk 0.1 units)
MAC: Toledo +275 (risk 0.5 units)
MAC: Bowling Green +1600 (risk 0.1 units)
MEAC: UNC Central +220 (risk 0.5 units)
Pac-12: Colorado +500 (risk 0.25 units)
Pac-12: Oregon +1200 (risk 0.1 units)
SEC: Texas A&M +4000 (risk 0.1 units)
SWAC: Texas Southern +475 (risk 1 unit)
WAC: Grand Canyon -145 (to win 1.0 unit)

2024 Conference Tournament Projections

“xOdds” is how often a team wins the conference tournament in 1,000,000 simulations. “Odds” is the BetMGM odds as of Monday morning, but odds vary at different sportsbooks on conference tournament bets, so shop around for the best price. “Imp%” (implied percentage) is the percentage chance a team has of winning their conference tournament based on the BetMGM odds. “Edge” is the percentage edge a bet has based on the expected win percentage (xOdds) and the implied percentage (imp%).

Atlantic 10

First round: March 12
Second round: March 13
Quarterfinals: March 14
Semifinals: March 16
Championship: March 17 (1 p.m. ET on CBS)

team	xodds	odds	imp%	edge
Dayton	35.3%	+140	41.7%	-6.4%
Loyola Chicago	15.6%	+650	13.3%	2.3%
UMass	12.9%	+600	14.3%	-1.4%
Richmond	7.7%	+500	16.7%	-9.0%
George Mason	7.2%	+1600	5.9%	1.3%
VCU	5.8%	+1000	9.1%	-3.3%
St. Bonaventure	5.4%	+1200	7.7%	-2.3%
Duquesne	5.1%	+1200	7.7%	-2.6%
Saint Joseph's	4.1%	+2000	4.8%	-0.7%
Davidson	0.5%	+5000	2.0%	-1.5%
Fordham	0.2%	+15000	0.7%	-0.5%
La Salle	0.1%	+10000	1.0%	-0.9%
Saint Louis	0.1%	+20000	0.5%	-0.4%
George Washington	0.0%	+20000	0.5%	-0.5%
Rhode Island	0.0%	+20000	0.5%	-0.5%

ACC

First round: March 12
Second round: March 13
Quarterfinals: March 14
Semifinals: March 15
Championship: March 16 (8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN)

team	xodds	odds	imp%	edge
Duke	35.7%	+190	34.5%	1.2%
North Carolina	30.9%	+200	33.3%	-2.4%
Pitt	10.3%	+900	10.0%	0.3%
Clemson	6.4%	+700	12.5%	-6.1%
Wake Forest	5.9%	+900	10.0%	-4.1%
Virginia	5.4%	+1200	7.7%	-2.3%
Virginia Tech	2.8%	+2500	3.8%	-1.0%
Florida State	0.9%	+8000	1.2%	-0.3%
Syracuse	0.7%	+6600	1.5%	-0.8%
NC State	0.6%	+5000	2.0%	-1.4%
Miami	0.2%	+10000	1.0%	-0.8%
Boston College	0.2%	+30000	0.3%	-0.1%
Notre Dame	0.0%	+25000	0.4%	-0.4%
Georgia Tech	0.0%	+25000	0.4%	-0.4%
Louisville	0.0%	+25000	0.4%	-0.4%

Big 12

First round: March 12
Second round: March 13
Quarterfinals: March 14
Semifinals: March 15
Championship: March 16 (6 p.m. ET on ESPN)

team	xodds	odds	imp%	edge
Houston	57.1%	-165	62.3%	-5.2%
Iowa State	11.8%	+400	20.0%	-8.2%
Baylor	9.1%	+800	11.1%	-2.0%
BYU	7.3%	+1000	9.1%	-1.8%
Texas Tech	4.4%	+2000	4.8%	-0.4%
Kansas	3.6%	+1400	6.7%	-3.1%
Texas	2.9%	+2500	3.8%	-0.9%
Cincinnati	1.0%	+10000	1.0%	0.0%
TCU	1.7%	+5000	2.0%	-0.3%
Kansas State	0.3%	+10000	1.0%	-0.7%
UCF	0.3%	+15000	0.7%	-0.4%
Oklahoma	0.3%	+8000	1.2%	-0.9%
Oklahoma State	0.0%	+20000	0.5%	-0.5%
West Virginia	0.0%	+20000	0.5%	-0.5%

Conference USA

First round: March 12
Quarterfinals: March 13 and 14
Semifinals: March 15
Championship: March 16 (8:30 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network)

team	xodds	odds	imp%	edge
Louisiana Tech	46.7%	+105	48.8%	-2.1%
Sam Houston State	18.8%	+400	20.0%	-1.2%
Liberty	16.0%	+450	18.2%	-2.2%
Western Kentucky	9.1%	+450	18.2%	-9.1%
UTEP	5.8%	+1200	7.7%	-1.9%
Jacksonville State	1.2%	+3000	3.2%	-2.0%
Middle Tennessee	1.1%	+8000	1.2%	-0.1%
New Mexico State	1.0%	+8000	1.2%	-0.2%
FIU	0.3%	+15000	0.7%	-0.4%

MAAC

Opening round: March 12
Quarterfinals: March 13 and 14
Semifinals: March 15
Championship: March 16 (7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU)

team	xodds	odds	imp%	edge
Fairfield	23.1%	+250	28.6%	-5.5%
Quinnipiac	21.2%	+300	25.0%	-3.8%
Iona	11.8%	+900	10.0%	1.8%
Rider	11.8%	+650	13.3%	-1.5%
Marist	10.1%	+550	15.4%	-5.3%
Saint Peter's	9.9%	+550	15.4%	-5.5%
Niagara	5.7%	+1400	6.7%	-1.0%
Mount St. Mary's	4.8%	+1600	5.9%	-1.1%
Canisius	1.4%	+5000	2.0%	-0.6%
Manhattan	0.1%	+15000	0.7%	-0.6%
Siena	0.0%	+25000	0.4%	-0.4%

AAC

First round: March 13
Second round: March 14
Quarterfinals: March 15
Semifinals: March 16
Championship: March 17 (3:15 p.m. ET on ESPN)

team	xodds	odds	imp%	edge
FAU	43.1%	+185	35.1%	8.0%
USF	13.4%	+500	16.7%	-3.3%
Memphis	13.2%	+500	16.7%	-3.5%
SMU	11.3%	+400	20.0%	-8.7%
UAB	8.4%	+1600	5.9%	2.5%
North Texas	5.1%	+850	10.5%	-5.4%
Charlotte	3.0%	+1500	6.3%	-3.3%
Tulane	0.8%	+8000	1.2%	-0.4%
Wichita State	0.5%	+9000	1.1%	-0.6%
Tulsa	0.5%	+15000	0.7%	-0.2%
East Carolina	0.4%	+8000	1.2%	-0.8%
Temple	0.2%	+50000	0.2%	0.0%
UTSA	0.1%	+100000	0.1%	0.0%
Rice	0.0%	+50000	0.2%	-0.2%

Big East

First round: March 13
Quarterfinals: March 14
Semifinals: March 15
Championship: March 16 (6:30 p.m. ET on FOX)

team	xodds	odds	imp%	edge
UConn	61.5%	-165	62.3%	-0.8%
Creighton	18.3%	+375	21.1%	-2.8%
Marquette	7.7%	+650	13.3%	-5.6%
St. John's	6.5%	+1400	6.7%	-0.2%
Villanova	2.2%	+1200	7.7%	-5.5%
Seton Hall	2.2%	+4000	2.4%	-0.2%
Providence	0.8%	+8000	1.2%	-0.4%
Butler	0.5%	+15000	0.7%	-0.2%
Xavier	0.3%	+10000	1.0%	-0.7%
Georgetown	0.0%	+25000	0.4%	-0.4%
DePaul	0.0%	+25000	0.4%	-0.4%

Big Ten

First round: March 13
Second round: March 14
Quarterfinals: March 15
Semifinals: March 16
Championship: March 17 (3:30 p.m. ET on CBS)

team	xodds	odds	imp%	edge
Purdue	42.6%	+100	50.0%	-7.4%
Illinois	20.3%	+300	25.0%	-4.7%
Nebraska	8.8%	+700	12.5%	-3.7%
Michigan State	7.5%	+1000	9.1%	-1.6%
Wisconsin	7.4%	+1500	6.3%	1.2%
Ohio State	6.2%	+3500	2.8%	3.4%
Northwestern	3.5%	+1600	5.9%	-2.4%
Iowa	1.4%	+3500	2.8%	-1.4%
Indiana	1.2%	+8000	1.2%	0.0%
Maryland	0.6%	+6000	1.6%	-1.0%
Penn State	0.3%	+15000	0.7%	-0.4%
Minnesota	0.2%	+10000	1.0%	-0.8%
Rutgers	0.1%	+20000	0.5%	-0.4%
Michigan	0.0%	+35000	0.3%	-0.3%

Big West

First round: March 13
Second round: March 14
Semifinals: March 15
Championship: March 16 (9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2)

team	xodds	odds	imp%	edge
UC Irvine	63.0%	-250	71.4%	-8.4%
UC Davis	17.9%	+450	18.2%	-0.3%
Hawaii	7.7%	+850	10.5%	-2.8%
Long Beach State	5.4%	+1400	6.7%	-1.3%
UC Riverside	2.5%	+5000	2.0%	0.5%
UC Santa Barbara	2.0%	+2000	4.8%	-2.8%
CS Northridge	0.8%	+6600	1.5%	-0.7%
CS Bakersfield	0.6%	+6600	1.5%	-0.9%

MEAC

Quarterfinals: March 13 and 14
Semifinals: March 15
Championship: March 16 (1 p.m. ET on ESPN2)

team	xodds	odds	imp%	edge
Norfolk State	32.5%	+180	35.7%	-3.2%
North Carolina Central	32.4%	+220	31.3%	1.2%
Howard	17.5%	+400	20.0%	-2.5%
South Carolina State	11.1%	+550	15.4%	-4.3%
Delaware State	4.6%	+1000	9.1%	-4.5%
Morgan State	1.3%	+2200	4.3%	-3.0%
Maryland Eastern Shore	0.4%	+9000	1.1%	-0.7%
Coppin State	0.1%	+15000	0.7%	-0.6%

Mountain West

First round: March 13
Second round: March 14
Semifinals: March 15
Championship: March 16 (6 p.m. ET on CBS)

team	xodds	odds	imp%	edge
San Diego State	27.2%	+250	28.6%	-1.4%
Utah State	16.4%	+425	19.0%	-2.6%
Boise State	13.5%	+600	14.3%	-0.8%
Nevada	13.4%	+500	16.7%	-3.3%
Colorado State	12.2%	+600	14.3%	-2.1%
New Mexico	10.6%	+600	14.3%	-3.7%
UNLV	6.2%	+600	14.3%	-8.1%
Wyoming	0.5%	+25000	0.4%	0.1%
Air Force	0.0%	+25000	0.4%	-0.4%
Fresno State	0.0%	+25000	0.4%	-0.4%
San Jose State	0.0%	+25000	0.4%	-0.4%

Pac-12

First round: March 13
Quarterfinals: March 14
Semifinals: March 15
Championship: March 16 (9 p.m. ET on FOX)

team	xodds	odds	imp%	edge
Arizona	43.3%	-175	63.6%	-20.3%
Colorado	24.0%	+500	16.7%	7.3%
Washington State	11.7%	+600	14.3%	-2.6%
Oregon	10.1%	+1200	7.7%	2.4%
Utah	4.9%	+1400	6.7%	-1.8%
UCLA	2.3%	+4000	2.4%	-0.1%
USC	1.4%	+2000	4.8%	-3.4%
Washington	1.3%	+4000	2.4%	-1.1%
Cal	0.4%	+10000	1.0%	-0.6%
Stanford	0.3%	+8000	1.2%	-0.9%
Arizona State	0.2%	+15000	0.7%	-0.5%
Oregon State	0.0%	+25000	0.4%	-0.4%

SEC

First round: March 13
Second round: March 14
Quarterfinals: March 15
Semifinals: March 16
Championship: March 17 (1 p.m. ET on ESPN)

team	xodds	odds	imp%	edge
Auburn	30.5%	+200	33.3%	-2.8%
Tennessee	28.2%	+160	38.5%	-10.3%
Alabama	13.2%	+500	16.7%	-3.5%
Kentucky	11.7%	+500	16.7%	-5.0%
Texas A&M	6.0%	+4000	2.4%	3.6%
Florida	5.1%	+1400	6.7%	-1.6%
Mississippi State	2.5%	+5000	2.0%	0.5%
South Carolina	2.0%	+5000	2.0%	0.0%
Ole Miss	0.3%	+10000	1.0%	-0.7%
LSU	0.2%	+12500	0.8%	-0.6%
Arkansas	0.1%	+15000	0.7%	-0.6%
Georgia	0.1%	+12500	0.8%	-0.7%
Missouri	0.0%	+20000	0.5%	-0.5%
Vanderbilt	0.0%	+20000	0.5%	-0.5%

SWAC

Quarterfinals: March 13 and 14
Semifinals: March 15
Championship: March 16 (9:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU)

team	xodds	odds	imp%	edge
Texas Southern	27.6%	+475	17.4%	10.2%
Alcorn State	19.5%	+280	26.3%	-6.8%
Grambling	14.7%	+350	22.2%	-7.5%
Southern U	12.6%	+300	25.0%	-12.4%
Jackson State	8.2%	+800	11.1%	-2.9%
Bethune-Cookman	7.5%	+2000	4.8%	2.7%
Alabama State	7.3%	+2000	4.8%	2.5%
Alabama A&M	2.6%	+6000	1.6%	1.0%

WAC

First round: March 13
Second round: March 14
Semifinals: March 15
Championship: March 16 (1:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU)

team	xodds	odds	imp%	edge
Grand Canyon	65.4%	-145	59.2%	6.2%
Tarleton State	12.9%	+380	20.8%	-7.9%
UT Arlington	9.6%	+550	15.4%	-5.8%
Seattle	8.3%	+700	12.5%	-4.2%
Stephen F. Austin	1.5%	+2500	3.8%	-2.3%
Utah Valley	1.2%	+3500	2.8%	-1.6%
Abilene Christian	0.7%	+6000	1.6%	-0.9%
Cal Baptist	0.4%	+5000	2.0%	-1.6%

MAC

Quarterfinals: March 14
Semifinals: March 15
Championship: March 16 (7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2)

team	xodds	odds	imp%	edge
Toledo	30.8%	+275	26.7%	4.1%
Akron	26.4%	+175	36.4%	-10.0%
Ohio	23.8%	+225	30.8%	-7.0%
Bowling Green	8.2%	+1600	5.9%	2.3%
Kent State	5.8%	+900	10.0%	-4.2%
Central Michigan	2.0%	+2500	3.8%	-1.8%
Miami Ohio	2.0%	+2500	3.8%	-1.8%
Western Michigan	1.0%	+8000	1.2%	-0.2%