Fantasy baseball notebook: Who has a new splitter? Mike Trout can steal how many bases?? And more

I Love Fastballs, But It’s the Season of the Split

Every year, we see a new trend with pitches. Remember when it was Marco Estrada succeeding by throwing fastballs up in the zone? Last year, it was the introduction – of the name, really – of the sweeper.

In spring this year, it’s been all about the splitter.

We’ve heard more and more pitchers introducing a splitter this spring, but just how many pitchers are throwing a splitter compared to last season, and to what outcome?

I went through the data, from the start of spring training games until March 4 to look at the numbers.

We should note, these numbers are just for pitchers pitching in a park with Statcast.

• Here are some high-level numbers (thanks to Eno Sarris for the Stuff+ numbers) :
• 35 different pitchers have thrown a splitter this spring.
• Nine pitchers have thrown just 1 splitter.
• Hobie Harris (39) has thrown the most, which is no surprise since he threw the offering 50 percent of the time last season.

But what about pitchers who are introducing the pitcher to their repertoire? Of the 35 players who threw a splitter this spring, 26 of them didn’t throw any splitters in 2023.

Spring Splitters

Player	Throws	Number of Splitters	STUFFplus	wpSTUFFplus	LOCATIONplus	PITCHINGplus
Zack Littell	R	5	152.3	111.6	81.4	98.5
Wily Peralta	R	9	101.1	75.7	55.5	65.8
Tylor Megill	R	3	98	100.6	66.1	88
Tucker Davidson	L	4	75.6	81.6	95.2	103.1
Tanner Rainey	R	1	69.2	101	144.9	164.2
Shelby Miller	R	3	154	106.5	110.6	129.8
Scott McGough	R	5	63.5	78.3	100.7	101.6
Reed Garrett	R	8	100.1	113.9	132.1	137.7
Nate Pearson	R	1	433.7	161.5	128.4	108.9
Matt Bowman	R	5	66.9	102.4	113.2	131.3
Marcus Stroman	R	7	125	67.1	104.4	83.8
Kutter Crawford	R	3	118.6	98.4	97.2	111
Kenta Maeda	R	4	97.6	135.7	100.1	79
Justin Martinez	R	7	174.5	162.4	117.2	136.6
Joe Ryan	R	8	88.1	84.6	102.2	110.8
Jhoan Duran	R	15	119.8	126.2	106.9	107.7
Jeff Hoffman	R	8	138.9	99.7	102	100.5
Hunter Greene	R	11	127.5	85.9	67.7	67.7
Dylan Covey	R	2	119.3	108.3	89.1	85.9
Dane Dunning	R	1	120.1	119.2	100.9	112.9
Chris Bassitt	R	2	52.3	53.8	94.5	110.8
Casey Mize	R	10	137.9	82.1	97.9	108.7
Cal Quantrill	R	1	76.3	80	110	83.1
Bowden Francis	R	9	175.9	91.9	93.1	124.7
Aroldis Chapman	L	12	159	142.2	88	116.6
A.J. Puk	L	4	55.6	90	115.6	101.4

What sticks out are some of the players who are throwing them in a larger sample, of course. Bowden Francis, who may get some run in the Toronto rotation thanks to Alek Manoah’s struggles, has thrown nine splitters this year for a 175.9 Stuff+. Last season, the highest Stuff+ number on a single pitch was Kyle Bradish’s slider at 171. That’s comparing nine splitters to, ahem, 824 sliders, but you get the point.

Hunter Greene and Jhoan Duran were already unfair, but an elite splitter could help Greene take that massive step forward that we are hoping for. 

Don’t overlook Casey Mize, either. I don’t really see a future for him as a starter for the Tigers, but his velocity is up – and holding – so maybe there’s a shot he’s the closer for the Tigers?

Seeing Red

When the Reds signed Jeimer Candelario to a contract in December, everyone had the same question within the fantasy space – what the hell are the Reds going to do about playing time?

They had an influx of infielders – so much so that they moved Spender Steer to the outfield full time. We got more of an answer Friday, as one of Cinci’s top prospects, Noelvi Marte, is going to be suspended for 80 games.

Sometimes, things just work out.

With the suspension of Marte, who was projected to get the majority of starts at third base, we have more of an idea of how playing time will shake out for fantasy purposes.

Marte managers are annoyed by this, and rightfully so. But perhaps, no one is taking a bigger L than this manager:

Well that’s a new one…. #NFBC pic.twitter.com/t3TcWQi6ZQ

— Michael Armstrong (@chefmikeA) January 22, 2024

Yikes.

With Marte’s 80-game suspension, the big winners for fantasy are Candelario, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Jake Fraley, Jonathan India, and Will Benson.

We told you, it was crowded.

Since the beginning of February, using 341 NFBC drafts, Candelario has an ADP of 200 overall, while CES is going 153rd overall. Expect both of those to rise dramatically, as Candelario will be the everyday third baseman, while CES holds down first base on his own (which was likely going to happen, anyway).

This definitely puts India back on the fantasy radar, though. You can argue the overall skillset, and there’s merit to that, of course, but whereas before it was unsure where he was going to play with Matt McLain holding down second base and Elly De La Cruz at short, India should get the bulk of the starts at DH – health pending. 

The Reds should be a sneaky-good offense this year, especially given the ballpark and division they’re in.

Raise the Jolly Roger

Is it a good sign that we are dedicating a full section to the Pirates in March? This is usually what happens when fantasy managers shift their focus to football, but I digress.

There have been a lot of encouraging signs out of Pirates’ camp so far this year, but it still remains absolutely maddening that in the year of our Lorde (the singer) 2024, we were able to watch Paul Skenes pitch to Jackson Holliday live. I can watch Mike Tyson fight Jake Paul, but I can’t watch something meaningful in spring training.

Anyway, Ke’Bryan Hayes is turning heads this spring, as people are hoping that it’s finally time that he breaks out offensively. But what’s being highlighted is how hard he hits the ball. But the truth is that Hayes consistently hits the ball hard over his career.

He’s had a 91.3 average exit velocity over his four seasons in the league, setting a new career high last year with a 92.2 mark. But where Hayes has struggled is raising his launch angle to a point to where the hard-hit balls matter. He had the highest average LA last year at 13.2 degrees, which is the first time it’s been better than league average.

I’ve tracked all of the balls that Hayes has hit this spring with an exit velocity of 91 mph or harder with the data available to us to see if the launch angle is going up, or if it’s still down:

All hard-hit balls are not treated equally, and with Hayes, we are still seeing the trend of lower launch angles despite the really good EV readings.

Speaking of hard-hit balls, Henry Davis, the Pirates’ C2 (lol) is smoking the ball this spring. Pirates Manager Derek Shelton wants Yasmani Grandal to be the team’s starter but said “so to say, like, he’s going to catch 100 games, that’s not going to happen because nobody does it anymore and, again, Yaz is 35 years old.”

That’s good news for Davis and fantasy managers – not to speak of Davis playing outfield when he’s not behind the dish.

Davis has four home runs this spring while slashing .333/.381/.833. But everyone hits home runs in spring, right? What matters is who they hit them off of.

For Davis, his four have come against a trio of, well, good arms – Jack Flaherty, Corbin Burnes, Aaron Civale, and Matt Manning.

Yeah, that’ll play. That’ll play indeed.

The last Pirates player to look at is Jared Jones. Jones is throwing gas this spring, pumping 101.1 with his four-seamer, sitting at 98.4.

Ready for an unfair comparison? OK, here you go. But remember, I warned you:

Jared Jones 4-Seam (Spring)
Avg. Velo: 98.4
Avg. Spin Rate: 2601
IVB: 17.6
HB: 10.6
VAA: -4.1°
Extension: 6.7

Jacob DeGrom 4-Seam (2023)
Avg. Velo: 98.7
Avg. Spin Rate: 2549
IVB: 17.6
HB: 8.7
VAA: -4°
Extension: 6.8pic.twitter.com/4A362xUbdd

— Stats by Tim (@TimStats) March 9, 2024

Jared deGrom? Or is it Jacob Jones?

Shelton said that Jones is a contender for a rotation spot, and fair townspeople I swear to God if Eric Lauer beats out Jones for that spot, I will write a hand-crafted letter to Ben Cherington. And it will be at least PG-rated.

Anything You Can Do Mookie Can Do Better

You probably saw it by now, but Yoshinobu Yamamoto “struggled” his last time out. I use the quotations marks because here are five of the six runs he gave up:

5 of the 6 hits off of Yoshinobu Yamamoto yesterday. https://t.co/UZuRDXtv7F pic.twitter.com/xpVj4gK4zN

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 7, 2024

So, yeah. As elite as the Dodgers’ offense may be, their defense showed some signs of concern. Dave Roberts was essentially standing behind the curtain with one of those hooked rods that we see in cartoons and yanked Gavin Lux off stage. Well, at least over to second base.

Because he said that Mookie Betts is moving to shortstop and that it’s “permanent, for now.”

The juxtaposition, people!

What can’t Mookie do, though? We have the opportunity – unless the Dodgers trade for Willy Adames – to get a triple-eligible Betts for 2024 if he can stick at shortstop. Hell, just make him the closer and allow him to catch when he’s feeling bored at this point.

Quick Hitters

Parker Meadows: Meadows has had an ADP of 276 since the beginning of February, but we’ve already seen that climb 10 spots since March 1 given his spring performance. Meadows was a popular sleeper for this year – and in some circles last year – and he’s showing why.

Meadows was fine in his cup of coffee last year, and this spring, he’s slashing .350/.381/.750 with two homers in 21 plate appearances. Power and elite sprint speed out of the leadoff spot? Sign me up.

Parker Meadows running down 1B line at 30.0 ft/sec to beat pitcher to bag on grounder to 1B. That’s elite sprint speed. pic.twitter.com/J5VFO56tF4

— Jason Beck (@beckjason) March 7, 2024

Mike Trout: It looks like Ron Washington wants the Angels to run a ton this year. The player this means the most for is Mike Trout, as you could have probably guessed by the bullet point. 

“If Mike Trout wants to steal bases, he can steal bases. He could steal 100 if he wanted to,” Washington said to MLB.com.

It could also bump up Mickey Moniak and Zach Neto, but Trout is the one who could improve his value the most if he can steal bases and stay healthy.

“I think so. Maybe. You never know,” Trout said to MLB.com when asked if he wanted to run more. 

Giddy up.

Cylor Megill: Has Tylor Megill hurt us before? Yes, yes he has. But it’s OK to go back to the well on a player if there are substantive changes. With Megill, who is in line to start in the Mets rotation after the Kodai Senga injury, has a new cutter and splitter (who doesn’t?) and absolutely fooled the Yankees in his last outing, striking out six over three innings.

For the spring, he has 13 strikeouts over eight innings with a 1.13 ERA. Do the numbers mean much? No, they don’t. But the stuff looks good, and he’s basically free in drafts with an ADP of 399 since March 1.

Carlos Rodón: I’m not a Rodón guy. Let’s just start out with that. There have been too many red flags over the last couple of seasons, that I’m fine leaving him for others to fight over. His last outing was rough against the Rays. Rodón allowed two homers, which is whatever, honestly, but it was the velocity being down more than 2 miles per hour and the overall lacking command that put up another one of those flags for me. Draft Rodón at your own risk.

Eloy Jiménez: Your MLB spring training hits leader is none other than Eloy Jiménez. Did you have that on your Bingo card? Of course, others in the top five are Owen Caissie, Blaze Alexander, and Miguel Andujar, but it’s extremely encouraging for Jiménez who is really in his last year of trying to capture the potential that we’ve hoped for for a long time from him in Chicago. 

Jiménez hasn’t hit more than 18 home runs since 2019, when he debuted with 31. He isn’t quite the power value – nor does he possess the power upside – that Giancarlo Stanton does in the late 200s in drafts, but at No. 213, Jiménez could provide a massive return on your draft investment.

Victor Scott: Sonny Gray? Hurt. Lars Nootbaar? Hurt. Tommy Edman? survey says* hurt. It’s a rough start so far for the Cardinals to the season before the season. With the injuries that are piling up, there’s a chance for Victor Scott to get some literal run. Scott had 94 steals last year in Single-A and Double-A, which makes you say Great Scott!

I’ll show myself out.

He’s going in the mid-300s of drafts, but he could be seeing that ADP creep up more toward 300 if news becomes clear that he’s going to break camp.

(Top image: ; Pic of Eloy getting a hit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports)