How Guardiola’s double substitution helped save Manchester City against Liverpool

For all the discussion about Pep Guardiola’s determination to change his starting XI and keep opponents guessing, what is sometimes overlooked is how rarely he tinkers within games.

There are sometimes changes of system with the existing players, but Guardiola uses substitutes less than any other manager in the Premier League. This season, he’s used 2.75 substitutes per game. The average is around four. Brighton manager Roberto De Zerbi is at the top of the list, using 4.75 per game. When Manchester City hosted Liverpool at the Etihad Stadium earlier in the season, conceding a late equaliser to draw 1-1, Guardiola didn’t use any substitutions at all. Here, he was forced to use up one change when Ederson was injured and replaced by Stefan Ortega. His double change later on, however, was more crucial.

One of the players removed was Kevin De Bruyne, to his obvious annoyance. The Belgian had a very strange game. In a contest based around intensity with lots of attacking moves struggling to find space, De Bruyne was at his best in terms of finding pockets to play a killer pass from, but he was incredibly ineffective with his final ball.

Here’s an example of him being in his favoured inside-right channel, with three players at the far post to pick out against just two Liverpool defenders, but his cross sailed over everyone and Julian Alvarez had to retrieve the ball near the corner flag.

Here’s an even more promising situation, albeit on his less-favoured left foot — Phil Foden is seemingly the target here, unmarked at the far post, but De Bruyne slices the ball out for a goal kick.

And this is the situation De Bruyne thrives in — inside-right channel, Erling Haaland running in behind. There’s no one in world football you’d rather have playing this pass, but De Bruyne gets the angle wrong and Virgil van Dijk intercepts.

This incident in the second half was also interesting. De Bruyne had an opportunity to dribble forward on the break but was outmuscled by Wataru Endo. After losing the ball, De Bruyne seemingly looked over towards the technical area, perhaps received some criticism from his manager, and threw his arms up into the air in annoyance.

Maybe that was irrelevant, but five minutes later, De Bruyne was substituted and spent a lengthy period querying Guardiola’s decision.

Without De Bruyne, City improved significantly. Having conceded a preventable equaliser just after the break, they looked rattled by the ferocity of Liverpool’s attacks. They completely lost control of the game and the usually reliable De Bruyne was partly culpable. His pass completion rate here was 64 per cent — in his other appearances this season, it hasn’t been below 77 per cent. In the second half, he played six passes. One of them created a good chance for Foden when he perhaps should have squared for Erling Haaland. Two of the other passes were kick-offs. Three were unsuccessful.

It’s unfair to judge De Bruyne by his pass completion rate. His job is to play ambitious passes, so he will naturally concede possession regularly. This season, only Ortega and Haaland have a lower pass completion rate for City, but Guardiola has previously suggested his team can be too determined to get the ball forward quickly and expose themselves to counter-attacks.

So Guardiola reformatted significantly. Mateo Kovacic replaced De Bruyne and played alongside Rodri. This meant Bernardo Silva went out to the right flank and Foden moved inside to play as the No 10. With Rodri, Kovacic, Bernardo and Foden together, City were much better at controlling the game and slowing the tempo. Jeremy Doku also replaced Julian Alvarez down the left.

Both changes worked well. Here’s Kovacic’s first involvement — forced to deal with an awkward high ball from Ortega.

Kovacic brings it down well, protects the ball under pressure, dribbles forward into attack and plays it out to Doku.

And while Doku has been frustrating in the second half of the campaign after a very bright start at City, his dangerous dribbling certainly attracts opponents. Immediately, four Liverpool players seem concerned by him, opening up space elsewhere.

Here’s another example of Doku on the ball and three Liverpool players primarily concerned with showing him backwards. When he does and offloads to Kovacic, there is a huge amount of space in midfield. Kovacic can take his time and play a safe pass, calming the game.

Sometimes Kovacic was more aggressive. Here, yet again Doku has attracted two Liverpool players out towards the touchline and Endo is watching him, which means he doesn’t spot Kovacic’s run in behind him. Doku plays the pass in behind, although Kovacic is quickly closed down.

Doku could even have won the game when he received a pass from Haaland and went down the outside before shooting against the far post with his left foot. The ball bounced straight into the arms of Caoimhin Kelleher.

But that would have been a bonus. The substitutions weren’t really designed to win the game — they were designed not to lose it. Afterwards, Guardiola used the go-to managerial explanation for De Bruyne’s annoyance, the old “it’s a good thing that he didn’t want to come off” line, but he was also more specific. “We needed a player who keeps the ball,” he said. “Kovacic is really good at that. We were happy with Kevin. It’s not a problem.”

We’ll never know what might have happened if Guardiola hadn’t made those changes, but Liverpool were clearly in the ascendency and an end-to-end game suited them well. Guardiola’s tactical moves are usually daring and adventurous, but for once he needed to shut down the game and that double change might turn out to be particularly crucial by the end of the season.

(Top photo: Alex Livesey – Danehouse/Getty Images)