The Phillies began last season with Darick Hall at first base, Jake Cave in left field and Bailey Falter as the fourth starter. Half of the initial bullpen wasn’t on the eventual postseason roster. The Opening Day roster is a snapshot in time and, if anything, it forces teams to make some decisions on fringe players.
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So, while these decisions about a fifth outfielder and a seventh reliever might feel like they carry great importance now, they’ll probably be forgotten by June. The Phillies are happy to be devoting so much focus to lesser spots on the roster. It means the rest of it is secure.
That doesn’t mean there should not be a good debate about the initial 26-man roster. Because, well, there are still 15 more Grapefruit League games to play. Something has to matter.
Here’s our first (and, perhaps, only) roster projection.
Catchers (2)
J.T. Realmuto, Garrett Stubbs
The plan is for Realmuto to play the same amount he did in 2023. He’s started 130 games at catcher in consecutive seasons. That’s the number in his head again. Fair enough. He’s the highest-paid catcher in the sport for a reason.
Realmuto worked hard on swing changes over the winter, and the initial results in spring games are encouraging — if anything, they will give Realmuto confidence he can stick with the new swing mechanics through the ups and downs in April and May. Stubbs will play once a week, and the Phillies are content to prioritize defense over offense in that role.
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Infielders (5)
Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott, Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, Edmundo Sosa
Harper will make mistakes borne out of inexperience, but this spring has reinforced the idea that he could be quite good at first base.
Something unexpected is bound to happen — an injury, ineffectiveness — but this is as good an infield unit as the Phillies have had to enter a season in more than a decade. It’ll be even better if Stott or Bohm takes another step forward.
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Outfielders (5)
Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas, Nick Castellanos, Whit Merrifield, Jake Cave
Marsh should appear in Grapefruit League games sometime this week. He has plenty of time to get prepared for Opening Day. Every indication is Rojas will be in center, beside Marsh, on March 28.
Merrifield is listed here because his best shot at two starts a week is in left field. He could see infield time if the Phillies suffer an injury or need to rest someone.
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Cave is here, for now, because he bats left-handed. The Phillies do not figure to need to pinch hit for any of their regulars — except for Rojas against a righty. That would require them to carry a lefty bench bat. The Phillies are still mining other camps for potential cuts and could make a small acquisition to fill this spot later in March. Cristian Pache has more upside than Cave, but it wouldn’t make much roster sense to carry both Rojas and Pache. The Phillies could look to pass Pache through waivers or trade him if there is interest.
Remember, Dalton Guthrie won the final bench job last spring only for the Phillies to acquire Pache a day before Opening Day. That last bench spot could go to someone not in camp right now.
Designated Hitter (1)
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Starters (5)
Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suárez, Taijuan Walker, Cristopher Sánchez
The only unknown here is the rotation order. Nola has made six straight Opening Day starts. It’s a largely ceremonial thing and ceremonial things are cool. He should make the start again. His wife is expecting and is due in the first week of April, so that could factor into this. If there is a way for Nola to be with his family and not miss a start but it requires him to pitch in the second or third game instead of Opening Day, then so be it.
It’s ironic that Suárez, often slowed in spring training with visa or injury issues, has avoided any interruptions this spring while Wheeler, Sánchez and Walker haven’t. Wheeler took some family time. Sánchez was sick. Walker had knee soreness. He pitched over the weekend and barely cracked 90 mph. Walker told reporters he wasn’t concerned because he is a little behind, but it’s worth monitoring.
Still, this projects as one of the better rotations in baseball.
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Relievers (8)
José Alvarado, Seranthony Domínguez, Gregory Soto, Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, Yunior Marte, Luis Ortiz
The first six names in this bullpen are locks. (That includes Kerkering at this point.) Any combination of relievers could fill the last two spots. No one has separated from the pack. There is time. Connor Brogdon is out of options but has not thrown consistent strikes and doesn’t have zip on his fastball yet. Marte and Michael Rucker are two righties on the 40-man roster with minor-league options and either one could seize the seventh reliever job. They both throw hard but haven’t missed a ton of bats this spring. Michael Mercado is interesting but still needs to learn how to pitch to advanced hitters.
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The easiest pick is Brogdon because everyone else can be sent to the minors and teams love to “preserve depth” while “maintaining flexibility.” Marte did the most in the majors last season, so he wins in our projection.
There is someone else to consider: José Ruiz. He’s pitched 40 big-league innings in four of the past five seasons. He was one of the Phillies’ first minor-league signings over the offseason. He throws hard. He’s generated some ugly swings with his slider. He has not commanded the ball or kept it in the ballpark in the past. He’s not on the 40-man roster. He probably fits better at Triple A to begin the season. But the seventh reliever is typically used when trailing or in low-leverage chances, and the 29-year-old righty fits that role.
The dramatic fight to claim the Phillies’ long reliever role has an under-the-radar candidate in Ortiz. He is solid. He throws strikes. He can pitch multiple innings. He looks like a long reliever. He feels like a long reliever.
Could this be Spencer Turnbull’s job? Sure. But the guess here is the Phillies will do everything they can to convince Turnbull to accept an optional assignment to Triple-A Lehigh Valley so he can continue to pitch in a rotation and implement some adjustments. If he’s the long man, it will be tougher to work on his craft. Turnbull has more value to the Phillies as rotation depth. But, with five years of service time, Turnbull has the right to refuse a trip to the minors.
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Injured list (2)
Covey had shoulder soreness earlier this month. It will probably delay the start of his season. Marchán, who has endured injury after injury, hurt his back during workouts in February. The team has not issued an update on his status.
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(Top photo of Bryce Harper: Jonathan Dyer / USA Today)