NFL free agency begins Monday at noon ET when the negotiating window opens. The ensuing hours and days feature the height of player movement in the league calendar, and the spectacle of it all only seems to grow with each passing season.
In 2023, we saw Jimmy Garoppolo sign with the Las Vegas Raiders for $72.75 million, Derek Carr sign with the New Orleans Saints for twice that much, and two offensive tackles — the Denver Broncos’ Mike McGlinchey and Kansas City Chiefs’ Jawaan Taylor — ink deals of at least $80 million in total value. The NFL raised its salary cap by close to $30 million this offseason. Teams are rife with space to use, and the money will surely be flying once again.
Advertisement
Does it really matter?
Last year, ahead of the negotiating window, we set out to answer that question. The goal was to quantify how much value teams actually create via free agency. And now we are back with our second iteration of the team free agency rankings, with an extra year of data included.
GO DEEPER
2024 NFL free-agency tracker: From Danielle Hunter to Jamal Adams, see where top 150 players land
A refresher on the methodology: Using contract figures from Over the Cap, we determined the amount of cash spent on each of 897 free agent signings over the past four seasons — 2020 through 2023. We only included free-agent signings who received at least $1 million in cash, and we also only included free agents who signed before the start of the regular season. So in-season signings like Kyle Van Noy, who signed with the Baltimore Ravens in late September of last season, were not factored in. Players who re-signed with a team were also not included. The cash number was calculated only for the seasons in which a player was on his free-agent contract. If a player signed an extension, we stopped counting the cash the year the extension went into effect.
Once we had the cash amount for each free agent, we had to cross-reference it with value data. Unlike in baseball with Wins Above Replacement, there is not an ideal statistic to use for this. However, Pro Football Reference has a statistic called Approximate Value (AV) that is about as close as we can get. It is not perfect, and that is something to keep in mind when reviewing the results of our study. Pro Football Reference describes AV as “an attempt to put a single number on the seasonal value of a player at any position from any year (since 1960).” You can find a full explanation for how AV is calculated here.
We input cash spent and approximate value figures for each of the 897 free agents. Using those figures, we could then calculate how much cash each team spent on free agents over the past four seasons, as well as how much total approximate value those free agents produced.
Last year, we were working with three years of data from 2020 to 2022. This year, we have expanded that window to four years. And in future years, we will continue working in four-year windows. For the 2025 team free agency rankings, for instance, we will use cash and approximate value figures for 2021 to 2024. Four-season windows will give us the best snapshot of how free agents have produced. NFL players very rarely stay on one contract for five seasons. Only a few free agents signed in 2020 even made it to the fourth year of their free-agent contract. Most often by that fifth year, the player has been cut, or his contract has been extended. The four-year window also aligns with the length of a rookie contract.
GO DEEPER
Which NFL teams have the most to lose in free agency? Why the Ravens and others are at risk
Once we had the data, there were several ways to organize it to produce different rankings.
We can sort by total AV produced to see which teams have gotten the most value out of free agents over the past three seasons, regardless of the money spent.
We can sort by cash spent to see which teams were most active in free agency.
Advertisement
Divide the approximate value by the millions of cash spent, and you end up with how much approximate value each team produced per million spent — an indication of which teams have been most efficient in free agency over the past four seasons.
We can also sort the free agents individually to see which players produced the most total AV, as well as which players produced the most AV per $1 million cash earned.
| Team | Total AV | Cash spent |
|---|---|---|
197 | $ 286,626,529 | |
185 | $ 205,889,092 | |
178 | $ 346,070,586 | |
176 | $ 323,499,854 | |
176 | $ 226,665,981 | |
172 | $ 233,533,819 | |
160 | $ 270,301,252 | |
160 | $ 248,630,355 | |
149 | $ 229,846,125 | |
143 | $ 221,716,943 | |
138 | $ 196,994,097 | |
137 | $ 141,427,166 | |
136 | $ 203,483,677 | |
134 | $ 239,615,588 | |
131 | $ 198,042,529 | |
121 | $ 228,968,170 | |
118 | $ 147,877,060 | |
115 | $ 143,892,500 | |
112 | $ 157,103,000 | |
112 | $ 110,659,294 | |
109 | $ 125,977,503 | |
106 | $ 159,477,281 | |
105 | $ 125,426,976 | |
103 | $ 130,189,167 | |
101 | $ 130,329,706 | |
100 | $ 121,931,162 | |
93 | $ 111,189,064 | |
75 | $ 96,177,500 | |
73 | $ 83,593,382 | |
72 | $ 53,706,176 | |
64 | $ 92,758,824 | |
38 | $ 20,992,451 |
The Cincinnati Bengals led in our total AV rankings last year, largely because of the additions they made on defense. Defensive lineman D.J. Reader, safety Vonn Bell, edge rusher Trey Hendrickson, cornerback Mike Hilton, cornerback Chidobe Awuzie and defensive lineman Larry Ogunjobi were all signed in free agency between 2020 and 2021. That nucleus helped generate a run to the Super Bowl after the 2021 season.
The Bengals maintained their lead after another year of free agency, and most of their added value in 2023 specifically came along the offensive line. Guard Alex Cappa and center Ted Karras, both 2022 signings, started 17 games for Cincinnati last season while on their free-agent contract. The Bengals also signed tackle Orlando Brown Jr. to a $64 million free-agent contract last year, and he also started 17 games.
A fascinating team is the one ranked right below the Bengals: the Houston Texans. General manager Nick Caserio has taken a unique approach to free agency, signing 53 qualified free agents in three offseasons since taking the job. That is the most in the league by a wide margin.
Virtually all of those free agents fell into the middle or lower tier. The Texans have not spent more than $11.16 million in cash on any free agent since Caserio took over. More chances at bat by avoiding the top of the market. And the strategy has produced an impressive amount of value. The Texans won a playoff game in 2023. They had to hit on the quarterback in C.J. Stroud. But Caserio’s approach has allowed the Texans to build depth through free agency. No other team is attacking free agency in quite the same way to quite the same degree.
Advertisement
The next eight teams behind the Texans in total AV have all spent more cash.
The Green Bay Packers are again at the bottom of the total AV rankings. And it is no surprise: They have spent just $20.99 million in cash on free agents since 2020. Only one other team — the Dallas Cowboys — is even below $80 million in cash spent. And yet the Packers made it to the divisional round in 2023.
When we shift to AV per million, the Packers jump to the top of the table:
| Team | AV Per million | Cash spent |
|---|---|---|
1.81 | $ 20,992,451 | |
1.341 | $ 53,706,176 | |
1.012 | $ 110,659,294 | |
0.969 | $ 141,427,166 | |
0.899 | $ 205,889,092 | |
0.873 | $ 83,593,382 | |
0.865 | $ 125,977,503 | |
0.837 | $ 125,426,976 | |
0.836 | $ 111,189,064 | |
0.82 | $ 121,931,162 | |
0.799 | $ 143,892,500 | |
0.798 | $ 147,877,060 | |
0.791 | $ 130,189,167 | |
0.78 | $ 96,177,500 | |
0.776 | $ 226,665,981 | |
0.775 | $ 130,329,706 | |
0.737 | $ 233,533,819 | |
0.713 | $ 157,103,000 | |
0.701 | $ 196,994,097 | |
0.69 | $ 92,758,824 | |
0.687 | $ 286,626,529 | |
0.668 | $ 203,483,677 | |
0.665 | $ 159,477,281 | |
0.661 | $ 198,042,529 | |
0.648 | $ 229,846,125 | |
0.645 | $ 221,716,943 | |
0.644 | $ 248,630,355 | |
0.592 | $ 270,301,252 | |
0.559 | $ 239,615,588 | |
0.544 | $ 323,499,854 | |
0.528 | $ 228,968,170 | |
0.514 | $ 346,070,586 |
The Packers hit on linebacker De’Vondre Campbell during the 2021 free-agency window. He signed a cheap one-year deal and was named an All-Pro. That skewed their numbers. The lifeblood of their organization is drafting. A really good head coach in Matt LaFleur helps drive their success, as well. The Packers spent $2.09 million in cash on qualified free agents last year, and more than half of that went to long snapper Matthew Orzech.
The bottom of these rankings are littered with cautionary tales.
The New York Jets have a lengthy list of free agency whiffs — Corey Davis, Carl Lawson, Allen Lazard. They paid guard Laken Tomlinson and cornerback D.J. Reed $50 million in cash for 20 AV over two seasons. Tomlinson was cut last month. They paid tackle Duane Brown more than $19 million for 15 starts. The Jets spent the most cash on free agents of any team during the four-year window.
The Broncos paid edge rusher Randy Gregory $26.66 million in cash for three sacks over two seasons.
The New York Giants paid receiver Kenny Golladay $40.5 million in cash for 43 catches.
The Raiders paid edge rusher Chandler Jones $33.03 million in cash for 4 1/2 sacks. They also paid Garoppolo $24.07 million in cash for six starts.
The Los Angeles Chargers paid cornerback J.C. Jackson $38.44 million in cash for seven starts. He injured his knee in 2022 and was traded in 2023.
Advertisement
The Miami Dolphins have been more efficient in free agency since Mike McDaniel arrived in 2022. But they are still wearing the weight of the Byron Jones deal, which GM Chris Grier signed in 2020. The Dolphins paid Jones $54.375 million for 30 starts. That is the most cash paid to an individual free agent in the 2020-23 window.
The Jacksonville Jaguars’ fall down these rankings has come as GM Trent Baalke has taken an aggressive approach to free agency in his three offseasons. The Jags did not get an equitable value return on most of those signings — cornerback Shaquill Griffin, linebacker Foyesade Oluokun, receiver Christian Kirk, guard Brandon Scherff, cornerback Darious Williams, etc.
If a team is going to pay a player a top-of-the-market contract, that player must at least produce somewhere close to the top of his position.
And there are certainly examples of that:
| PLAYER | YEAR SIGNED | AV | CASH SPENT | AV PER MILLION |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2021 | 33 | $48,000,000 | 0.6875 | |
2020 | 28 | $45,750,000 | 0.612 | |
2021 | 28 | $46,735,294 | 0.5991 | |
2020 | 25 | $42,000,000 | 0.5952 | |
2020 | 24 | $39,000,000 | 0.6154 | |
2022 | 23 | $31,250,000 | 0.736 | |
2021 | 23 | $31,976,470 | 0.7193 | |
2021 | 22 | $22,500,000 | 0.9778 | |
2020 | 22 | $40,000,000 | 0.55 | |
2020 | 21 | $52,788,236 | 0.3978 |
The Chiefs’ Joe Thuney was seventh in our total AV rankings for players last year. He shot up to No. 1 with a first-team All-Pro season.
Haason Reddick cracked the top 10 with another double-digit sack season for the Philadelphia Eagles.
Reader and the Washington Commanders’ Kendall Fuller made the list because of longevity. They were two of the rare players who played through the fourth year of their free-agent contracts.
The Ravens’ Kevin Zeitler was the fourth new addition. He made his first Pro Bowl last season.
| PLAYER | YEAR SIGNED | AV PER MILLION | AV | CASH SPENT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2020 | 7.6372 | 8 | $1,047,500 | |
2020 | 6.7368 | 8 | $1,187,500 | |
2020 | 6.6667 | 7 | $1,050,000 | |
2022 | 6.6176 | 7 | $1,057,778 | |
2023 | 6.0721 | 8 | $1,317,500 | |
2020 | 5.7279 | 6 | $1,047,500 | |
2022 | 5.6338 | 6 | $1,065,000 | |
2021 | 5.6 | 14 | $2,500,000 | |
2021 | 5.5814 | 6 | $1,075,000 | |
2022 | 5.3812 | 6 | $1,115,000 |
This final table provides a look at some of the best value contracts signed in the window. All of these players were on one-year deals and vastly outperformed their contracts. John Jenkins is the only addition to the list from last year. His AV was likely buoyed by the fumble-return touchdown he had against the Chargers in Week 15.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield did not quite make this list with his AV per million of 3.25. Still, his AV of 13 on a one-year, $4 million deal — especially factoring in his positional value at QB and helping lead the Bucs to a playoff win — makes him the best value of last year’s free agent cycle.
We asked a question to start, and we will answer it.
Yes, free agency does matter. But there is a little more nuance to it. A few general takeaways from the data:
1. There is more risk than reward when shopping at the top of the market. Teams must be really, really smart when investing that much money in a player. It can work, like with Thuney or Matthew Judon or Javon Hargrave. But there are far more examples of these deals blowing up than providing equitable value.
Advertisement
2. Relying too heavily on free agency for the backbone of your roster can lead to diminishing returns. Sure, it can spur a surge in the short term. The Jaguars won a playoff game in 2022. But as those expensive contracts play out, the players must continue performing at top-of-their-position levels to provide the needed value. The margin for error is very slim.
3. Building through the draft is the most sustainable way to win. Ascending players on cheap contracts. The Packers spent by far the least cash on free agents in the four-year window. They made the playoffs three times.
4. Free agency is best used as a supplement. The market inefficiency might very well be the middle-to-lower tiers of the free agent pool. The Texans have attacked the inefficiency. Other teams, if cap space allows, might be better off following this model. Depth can be achieved in many ways. And viewing free agency as an avenue toward depth as opposed to that shiny star could be a valuable approach.
GO DEEPER
Who are the best available NFL free agents? Justin Simmons, Josh Reynolds lead list
(Top illustration: Sean Reilly / The Athletic;
photos of Baker Mayfield, Derek Carr and Joe Thuney:
Rich Storry, Jonathan Bachman and Ryan Kang / Getty Images)