By Josh Kendall, Dianna Russini, Alec Lewis, Larry Holder and Randy Mueller
The Atlanta Falcons have talked a big game about being close to contention all offseason. On Monday, they made a big move to bring that to fruition, agreeing to terms to add free-agent quarterback Kirk Cousins to the roster, according to his agent, Mike McCartney.
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The move represents a big and expensive swing for the team’s 81-year-old owner, Arthur Blank, and first-year head coach Raheem Morris. Cousins’ deal is worth $180 million over four years, including $100 million guaranteed, according to a league source. He gets a $50 million signing bonus, $45 million per year in 2024 and ’25, plus another $10 million in 2026.
The biggest question surrounding the 35-year-old quarterback will be how quickly he can recover from the torn Achilles tendon he sustained in Week 8 last season.
Cousins comes to Atlanta from Minnesota, where he was 51-39-1 in six years as the Vikings’ starting quarterback. The former Michigan State quarterback also spent six years in Washington, where he was 26-31-1 as a starter.
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He was the top quarterback in this year’s free-agent market and ranked seventh overall among free agents by The Athletic’s Randy Mueller and will at minimum stabilize a position that has been in flux in Atlanta since Matt Ryan was traded to Indianapolis in 2022.
The Falcons are hoping, though, that he does more than that.
“We intend to win and compete at the highest levels in 2024,” team CEO Rich McKay said on Jan. 8, the day the team fired former head coach Arthur Smith.
The Falcons are coming off three consecutive 7-10 seasons, posted during Ryan’s final season with the team and the short tenures of Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke at quarterback.
“Having the right quarterback in the NFL is a really big deal,” Blank said in January. “It doesn’t mean you have to have one of the top two or three or four or five, but you want to have a quarterback who’s certainly going to be in the top half, top quartile of the league and somebody who’s going to give you a chance to win.”
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In Atlanta, Cousins will be teamed with one of the NFL’s best offensive lines and three offensive skill-position players drafted in the top 10 of the last three drafts — tight end Kyle Pitts, wide receiver Drake London and running back Bijan Robinson.
The Falcons have another top-10 pick in this year’s draft. They are set to pick eighth and could have chosen to take their chances with a rookie quarterback from a class that includes USC’s Caleb Williams, North Carolina’s Drake Maye, LSU’s Jayden Daniels and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy.
How he fits
Cousins steps in immediately as the starter and fills the team’s most glaring need, and he should be familiar with the offensive system because Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson and Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell both coached offense under Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay.
In the last three seasons, Atlanta was 28th in the NFL in passing yards per game (194.82), 25th in passer rating (84.8) and 22nd in expected points added per dropback (minus-.04) with Matt Ryan, Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke at quarterback, according to TruMedia.
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Cousins was leading the NFL in passing yards per game (291.38) in 2023 before his season ended after eight games because of his Achilles injury. In six seasons in Minnesota, Cousins was third in the NFL in passing touchdowns (171), sixth in passer rating (101.2), 11th in expected points added per attempt (.20), 13th in passing yards per game (264.4) and 17th in yards per attempt (7.6), according to TruMedia.
The Falcons still have both Ridder and Heinicke on the roster although it’s likely one could be moved to shed salary or bring some return on the trade market.
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2024 impact
The Vikings were 12th in the league in points per game (24.14) during Cousins’ six years with the team. The Falcons were 24th in the league in scoring (19.59 ppg) the last three seasons under head coach Arthur Smith. That was despite spending three straight top-10 draft picks on offensive skill players. The belief in Atlanta is that the addition of better quarterback play will allow Pitts, London and Robinson to reach their full potential in the offense.
History
Cousins was selected by Washington in the fourth round of the 2012 draft and became the starter there four seasons later. He was selected to his first Pro Bowl a season later. He has made three more Pro Bowl appearances since and was named the PFWA most improved player in the league in 2015.
The upcoming season will be his 13th in the league, and he has started at least 15 games in eight of his previous 12 seasons. He is 77-70-1 as a starter.
He played in only eight games last year due to his torn Achilles but has posted social media videos this offseason indicating that his recovery is on track.
Cousins was one of three quarterbacks featured in Netflix’s “Quarterback” series last offseason, along with Patrick Mahomes and Mariota. His wife, Julie, is a Georgia native and University of Georgia alumna.
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Cap update
The size of the contract leaves Atlanta with little flexibility to address other areas of its roster, but that’s a tradeoff the Falcons came into the offseason willing to make. Atlanta came into free agency with $37.3 million in cap space and the ability to create more by releasing current players or restructuring contracts.
Outlook
Cousins’ addition makes Atlanta an instant contender in the NFC South, a division won the last three seasons by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who just retained quarterback Baker Mayfield and wide receiver Mike Evans. The Falcons haven’t made the playoffs since the 2017 season. But Cousins’ resume also is lacking postseason success as he is 1-3 in his playoff career.
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What does losing Cousins mean for the Vikings?
First, that they don’t have an obvious starting quarterback for the 2024 season. The Vikings are likely to examine the bridge-quarterback market. Sam Darnold might be the likeliest option. Minnesota is also likely to turn its attention to trading up in the draft for one of the premium rookie options. Neither route comes with much certainty, which adds to the pressure for O’Connell and general manager in Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, who are both entering their third seasons in charge. Minnesota has used some of its available money on defenders like Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel and Blake Cashman. More signings could come. But Minnesota is left in a precarious position with no obvious and solidified answer at the most important position in the sport. — Alec Lewis, Vikings writer
How Cousins stacks up
Cousins was in the midst of one of his best games of the 2023 season when he went down with the Achilles injury. And his traditional numbers looked sharp before the season-ending ailment. Still, the Vikings only stood at 4-4 when Cousins started last season.
Here’s how Cousins stacked up in Expected Points Added per dropback (via TruMedia), passer rating and total QB EPA among qualified passers last season:
| player | EPA/DB | Psr Rt | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|
0.26 (1) | 113.0 (1) | 132.8 (1) | |
0.18 (2) | 105.9 (2) | 117.1 (2) | |
0.15 (3) | 101.1 (5) | 60.7 (5) | |
0.13 (4) | 92.2 (16) | 103.9 (3) | |
0.12 (5) | 96.1 (11) | 75.5 (4) | |
0.11 (6) | 100.8 (6) | 59.9 (7) | |
0.11 (7) | 97.9 (9) | 59.9 (6) | |
0.11 (8) | 92.5 (15) | 59.3 (8) | |
0.09 (9) | 98.4 (7) | 25.6 (14) | |
0.07 (10) | 92.6 (14) | 35.2 (11) | |
0.07 (11) | 93.2 (13) | 29.4 (13) | |
0.07 (12) | 89.1 (20) | 52.4 (9) | |
0.07 (13) | 102.7 (4) | 35.6 (10) | |
0.06 (14) | 94.6 (12) | 29.9 (12) | |
0.06 (15) | 103.8 (3) | 20.3 (16) | |
0.06 (16) | 92.1 (17) | 22.7 (15) | |
0.04 (17) | 97.7 (10) | 14.6 (17) | |
-0.01 (18) | 84.6 (23) | -8.2 (19) | |
-0.01 (19) | 89.4 (19) | -5.8 (18) | |
-0.03 (20) | 91.0 (18) | -13.5 (20) | |
-0.03 (21) | 84.2 (24) | -21.9 (24) | |
-0.03 (22) | 88.5 (21) | -31.1 (25) | |
-0.04 (23) | 83.9 (25) | -16.8 (22) | |
-0.05 (24) | 86.3 (22) | -21.5 (23) | |
-0.05 (25) | 98.0 (8) | -16.7 (21) | |
-0.07 (26) | 83.4 (26) | -43.7 (26) | |
-0.08 (27) | 79.5 (28) | -50.7 (27) | |
-0.12 (28) | 78.9 (29) | -87.1 (30) | |
-0.15 (29) | 81.4 (27) | -54.1 (28) | |
-0.18 (30) | 77.0 (31) | -75.8 (29) | |
-0.21 (31) | 73.7 (32) | -133.5 (32) | |
-0.23 (32) | 77.2 (30) | -117.1 (31) |
The wide margin in rankings between EPA rates and passer rating for Cousins would signal some empty production last season, meaning big numbers at times in less meaningful situations.
Among qualified QBs (38 players), here’s how Cousins fared in the same categories in the last three seasons:
- EPA per dropback: 0.07 (15th)
- Passer rating: 98.7 (eighth)
- Total QB EPA: 109.3 (12th)
The rankings provide a pretty pronounced, accurate range for Cousins and where he stands within the league: an upper, mid-range QB. — Larry Holder, NFL senior writer
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Mueller’s take on Cousins
Cousins is in the Business of Football Hall of Fame. Regardless of the contract details here, he marks a major upgrade for a team that has really struggled to identify quarterback options. This is an easy evaluation for their people. Even if the commitment was longer than the Falcons might have wanted to make, it moves the needle in the NFC South immediately. Paying $45 million per year is an understandable rate considering the Falcons’ lack of options. Cousins might not have the highest ceiling, but he brings an efficiency and consistency that they have really lacked. I could still see them adding a younger, long-term option at quarterback, too.
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Cousins is fundamental in every aspect of his game but at times can be mechanical and robotic. He is pretty efficient and has good intangibles. A tough leader who will stand in the pocket and can deliver most NFL throws, he has taken his skill set to a higher level with his mind and is still capable of being a mid-tier starting QB in the league, even coming off a significant injury. — Randy Mueller, NFL staff writer
Required reading
- 2024 NFL free agency rankings: Brian Burns, Saquon Barkley, Kirk Cousins lead top 150
- NFL free agency rankings 2024: Top 10 players at each position
- NFL beat writer mock draft 2024: Trades shake up top 10 picks and QB landscape
(Photo: Patrick McDermott / Getty Images)