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Do you ever think about an alternate universe where the Seahawks ran the ball on their final play of Super Bowl 49? Just me?
Today, we’re kicking off our 2024 team previews with the AFC North, a division that might not currently include Russell Wilson if then-Seahawks OC Darrell Bevell had called that run play. Yes, I had Seattle.
Today’s NFL update:
- 🔏 Patriots’ re-signing spree
- 👀 AFC North preview
- ⚠️ Concerns for all 32 teams
Patriots extend Rhamondre Stevenson, re-signing spree continues
In early March, the Patriots had $101 million in cap space, the most in the NFL per Over the Cap. They also desperately needed to improve at multiple positions, including receiver. Signing Calvin Ridley was their top priority.
But rather than overpay for a 29-year-old receiver, new GM Eliot Wolf dropped out of a bidding war with the Titans. The Pats’ most expensive offseason addition became (starting?) QB Jacoby Brissett’s one-year, $8 million deal. Their biggest cap hit in 2024? LB Matt Judon’s $14.6 million.
Instead of spending on the open market, Wolf made a priority of re-signing New England’s core players. Prior to last Thursday, the Patriots had signed in-house talents to reasonable extensions, including DL Christian Barmore, S Kyle Dugger and OT Mike Onwenu.
Late last week, the Patriots continued that trend by signing RB Rhamondre Stevenson to a four-year extension worth up to $48 million. As The Athletic’s staff noted, the deal starts at $36 million with $17 million guaranteed, meaning the Patriots could move on in two years, when Stevenson turns 28. The deal also has another potential $3 million per year in upside incentives.
This makes Stevenson ($9 million APY) the seventh-highest paid RB, just ahead of D’Andre Swift and Derrick Henry, who are both at $8 million.
It’s not all roses. Stevenson’s numbers declined across the board in 2023, with his 4.0 yards per carry by far the lowest of his career. He missed five games with an ankle sprain and finished with a PFF ranking of 71.3, tied with Samaje Perine for 31st among RBs. The Patriots also brought in former Washington RB Antonio Gibson, who will challenge for third-down touches.
Some of the blame for his struggles falls on the Patriots’ offensive line, which PFF dropped from No. 11 in 2022 to No. 20 last season. But Stevenson also saw his yards after contact drop from a league-leading 3.8 per attempt in 2022 to 2.8 last season, per PFF, evidence that it wasn’t just the line.
Still, the Patriots are betting that new OC Alex Van Pelt, who recently led Cleveland’s offense, will successfully implement a zone-rushing scheme that is a perfect fit for Stevenson. Expect a run-heavy attack with plenty of play action, and the Patriots’ new highest-paid offensive weapon at the center of it all.
This signing also shows a continued commitment to homegrown talent, illustrating the upside for players who buy into the new Patriot way.
What’s next for the Pats? It’s almost July, and they still have $45 million in cap room, by far the most in the NFL per Over the Cap. They could rollover unused cap to 2025 and potentially target a WR like Tee Higgins. It’d be a patient approach to team-building.
2024 NFL Team previews: AFC North
In 2023, for the first time since 1935, every team in a division — the AFC North — finished with a winning record. What better place to start our team previews than the best division in football and the subject of this year’s in-season edition of HBO’s “Hard Knocks.”
Bengals in 2024
Biggest question: Can they protect Joe Burrow?
They avoided tying up long-term capital in Tee Higgins, who signed his franchise tag, and should benefit from a schematic expansion under new OC Dan Pitcher, but the critical piece (as always) is their line, which PFF ranked 26th in 2023. Adding two mutants (6-8, 370-pound RT Trent Brown and 6-8, 340-pound first-round OT Amarius Mims) won’t hurt.
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Position to watch: Safety.
The secondary struggled in 2023, allowing the NFL’s most yards per play (6.0) and most passing yards per attempt (7.1). Bringing back safety Vonn Bell and former Raven Geno Stone should address their penchant for allowing explosive plays.
Fantasy sleeper: WR Jermaine Burton.
An out-of-character pick for the Bengals, Burton fell due to his reputation as an undisciplined player. If in Cincy can fix that, Pro Football Focus’ fourth-highest-graded receiver can capably fill the role of Tyler Boyd, who left nearly 100 targets up for grabs when he signed with Tennessee.
Better than in 2023?
Yes, Burrow should be healthy, and their defense improved where it needed to. As a Bengals fan, I expect more than nine wins, plus a long playoff run.
Latest read: Bengals DC Lou Anarumo ‘feeling good’ about spring secondary reorganization.
Browns in 2024
Biggest question: Can their defense improve in the red zone?
In the Browns’ first year in DC Jim Schwartz’s aggressive scheme, they allowed the NFL’s fewest total yards. Yet their red zone defense was the NFL’s worst, with opponents scoring TDs on 71 percent of their visits. New linebackers Jordan Hicks and Devin Bush should help.
Position to watch: Quarterback.
Can Deshaun Watson recapture the form he showed in Houston? He has the weapons — Amari Cooper, David Njoku and newly acquired Jerry Jeudy form one of the league’s most talented skill-position groups — but does he have the arm? He’ll need it, especially with the third-toughest schedule.
Fantasy sleeper: RB Nick Chubb.
An annual top-10 RB, Chubb recently said he’s unsure whether a Week 1 return is realistic, which means he didn’t rule it out. With his average draft position hovering near the 100s, this might be the most available he’ll ever be. Don’t forget, Chubb (albeit a younger version) suffered a similar injury while at Georgia in October of 2015, but recovered by the following September.
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Better than in 2023?
Not easy after an 11-win season, but there’s room for improvement on both sides of the ball. Still, with that schedule, I’d be surprised to see them win more than nine games.
Latest read: Browns offseason roster observations: How will the QB depth chart shake out?
Ravens in 2024
Biggest question: Can Lamar Jackson finally take the next step in the postseason?
In playoff games, among QBs with four-plus appearances over the past 10 years, Jackson ranks third-worst in passer rating (75.7) and second-worst in completion percentage (57.4), and only Marcus Mariota had a higher sack percentage than Jackson’s 11.8. All are significantly worse than his regular-season averages.
Position to watch: Offensive line.
In their most recent playoff loss, Jackson was sacked four times, and their run game was non-existent. Then, three OL starters left this offseason and may be replaced by three players (Andrew Vorhees, Ben Cleveland and rookie Roger Rosengarten) with just seven career starts between them. Without any big-name signings, it appears the Ravens are comfortable with their in-house options.
Fantasy sleeper: RB Derrick Henry.
Yes, he’s a star name, but he remains underrated in fantasy drafts. In 2023, the Ravens’ top two running backs, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill, combined for 282 carries, 1,592 total yards and 17 touchdowns. Let’s say Henry replicates that by himself (he had almost exactly that many carries last season); in most fantasy leagues, that production would’ve ranked second-best among RBs in 2023. Oh, and Henry’s a touch better than Edwards and Hill.
Better than in 2023?
Baltimore was pillaged this offseason, losing those lineman, their defensive coordinator and many other coaches, as well as key defensive players. Winning 13 games is a stretch, but I won’t be surprised if they are in the AFC Championship again.
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Latest read: Ravens news, notes and opinions: Could Brandon Stephens be next to get an extension?
Steelers in 2024
Biggest question: Can Russell Wilson return to form?
After Pittsburgh’s forgettable two years with Kenny Pickett and a mostly miserable experience for Wilson in Denver, the 35-year-old is in a make-or-break season. Wilson has impressed throughout this offseason, with beat reporter Mark Kaboly writing, “You couldn’t have asked for much more out of Wilson during OTAs and minicamp.”
Position to watch: Receiver.
George Pickens could be a blend of D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, if he can capitalize on Wilson’s deep ball. Behind Pickens, there has been speculation of acquiring another receiver via trade (more on this below) or starting either rookie Roman Wilson, third-year pro Calvin Austin III or former Ram Van Jefferson.
Fantasy sleeper: TE Pat Freiermuth.
In the final year of his rookie deal, Freiermuth has been Wilson’s favorite offseason target in new OC Arthur Smith’s TE-friendly offense (since 2021, Smith’s Atlanta offense ranked top-three in tight end target rate). Kaboly listed the tight end as Pittsburgh’s No. 1 offseason winner.
Better than in 2023?
Ten wins will be difficult. Having the NFL’s toughest schedule doesn’t help, but Smith was able to get the best of Ryan Tannehill during their time in Tennessee, and the OC’s play-action, RPO-heavy scheme should be a positive for Wilson. If Wilson returns to form and Pittsburgh builds off 2023, anything is possible. It’s a big if.
Latest read: Steelers mailbag: What’s next with Cam Heyward as training camp approaches?
Jacob’s Picks
📕 Worried about your team? Join us. This morning, The Athletic’s NFL staff listed one concern for each team entering training camp. One nugget on the Steelers 👀: “A trade for one of the 49ers’ receivers — Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel — might materialize.” (The Athletic)
🎙 What’s the difference between J.J. Redick and Jeff Saturday? Mike Sando and Randy Mueller compare inexperienced head-coaching hires and consider how coaching differs between the NBA and NFL. (Football GM)
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