What to watch for from Pistons, Raptors and Wizards: View from the basement

Not every team in the NBA can be in the Western Conference’s top 10. In that realm, every team is fighting for something, or at least to avoid the fate of having to win twice in the Play-In Tournament just to make the playoffs. There will be drama there.

Per Basketball Reference, there are 10 teams — five in each conference — that have worse than a 10 percent chance of making the playoffs. Those teams still have a third or so of their season to play, too. With that in mind, James L. Edwards III (The Athletic’s Detroit Pistons beat writer), Eric Koreen (Toronto Raptors) and Josh Robbins (Washington Wizards) discussed what they are looking for when watching some of the league’s … less urgent games down the stretch.

Koreen: Dear colleagues, dear readers, let me tell you a little story about a team you surely all remember: The 2008-09 Toronto Raptors.

Following two straight playoff appearances, the Raptors had a disappointing season, finishing 33-49. An offseason trade for Jermaine O’Neal was a bust, a move that eventually required the expenditure of another pick to undo. After a loss on March 13, they were 20 games under .500. This was a bad team.

Everyone remembers that Shawn Marion finished that season as a Raptor, adding a bit of wing defence that was helpful to the team. The Raptors ended the season by winning nine of their final 13 games.

Those games were fool’s gold. It didn’t make that much difference in the awesome 2009 NBA Draft — the Raptors ended up with the ninth pick, taking DeMar DeRozan. (Bonus question: Who from that class won NBA Rookie of the Year in 2010? Answer below.) A worse finish would have taken them down to eighth, but they would have had to go 5-8 to fall another spot to seventh in the reverse standings. In that spot, the Golden State Warriors took a smallish combo guard named Stephen Curry.

I believe that finish tricked the Raptors into thinking they were a little better than they were. Had they stumbled to an ugly ending, maybe the Raptors would have looked for a new head coach instead of retaining Jay Triano, and maybe they would have seriously considered trading Chris Bosh going into the final year of his contract. Instead, the Raptors splurged on Hedo Turkoglu in free agency.

With that collection of names, we don’t have to remind people of how that plan worked. (Poorly.) The three teams we cover aren’t going to make the playoffs. With the Raptors having traded OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam, none of them have the pressure of trying to placate a star heading into free agency as those Raptors did. They are in different stages of rebuilding, but they are all in the same vague area.

The Raptors don’t have much recent experience in playing meaningless games, save for the 2020-21 season played in Tampa Bay, which we pretend didn’t happen. To start this conversation off: What do you look for in these games? As importantly: What should be discarded out of hand?

Edwards: I’ve got a lot of experience here, Mr. Koreen. Let me take this one.

Coaches, players and front-office executives will tell you these final games aren’t meaningless. And while that’s not true, there is some merit to it. Teams can build momentum going into the next season — see the bubble Phoenix Suns — and they can evaluate who is worth keeping going forward.

Covering Detroit, I look for individual development. This rebuild isn’t going to work unless at least one of their lottery picks in recent years starts proving to be a top-20 player in this league. Cade Cunningham is the most likely, but can he become a consistent 3-point shooter and continue to limit his turnovers? Ausar Thompson has a lot of what you want in a prospect, but can his shot show any improvements moving forward? Jalen Duren’s upside will be unlocked if he improves defensively. Jaden Ivey needs to turn down the turnovers and become a consistent shooter for his potential to be reached.

All of that is what I’ll be watching. It’s hard to meaningfully evaluate this team because I don’t think a lot of them will be here after this season.

Robbins: For a team that no longer has a chance of making the playoffs, the final 25-something games of a season don’t have to be meaningless. The stretch of games is similar to many other things in life, like college, a profession or an exercise regimen: You get what you put into it.

So, in the Wizards’ case, and I would imagine in the cases of the Pistons and Raptors, it’s the responsibility of everyone involved — players, coaches, staff members, front offices — to try to make the most of things rather than play out the string. As James said, that’s what the 2019-20 Suns did in the bubble; they used those games as a springboard to better days.

It sounds cliché, but the Wizards do need to develop better habits, particularly on defense and with effort. That’s part of what their interim coach, Brian Keefe, and his assistant coaches are trying to accomplish. Any growth now can serve as a foundation for the 2024-25 season and beyond even if some of the players currently on the roster won’t return next season.

So, whether or not the Wizards are making strides within a team concept will be crucial. I’ll also want to monitor whether individual players are improving.

But, Eric, you also asked: What should be discarded out of hand late in a season? That’s a great question. It’s dangerous to put too much emphasis on the point totals of individual players who are on bad teams. Someone has to score the points, and point totals alone aren’t necessarily indicative of how well someone contributes to a team. Everything needs to be placed within context. But if someone has a string of breakout performances, as Deni Avdija did when he capped a nice stretch with a 43-point game on Feb. 14, it can illustrate growth and reveal talents that can be employed in seasons ahead (in Avdija’s case, handling the basketball in pick-and-rolls).

Koreen: That is all very clarifying. Intellectually, I’m interested in the way Gary Trent Jr. closes the season, specifically because his vague player type has been valued differently around the league, from the likes of Tyler Herro and Jordan Poole getting near-max money two rookie extension cycles ago to Malik Beasley signing for the minimum last summer. (The player type being combo guard scorer.) However, I’m not sure how much that matters for the Raptors’ purposes — that is more of a league-wide thing I’m monitoring.

Josh, you mentioned habits and effort, and that is where I look to start. I mentioned this stat in an earlier piece, but the Raptors lost by 20 or more points six times in the first 14 games following the Pascal Siakam trade after losing five times by that margin in the prior year and a half. (Shout out to many 17-, 18- and 19-point losses for helping that stat exist.) It’s hard to build a foundation when you’re getting punted like that nightly. The Raptors have played much better in the last three games with two wins and a narrow defeat.

Similarly, I’m interested in how the Raptors come together defensively. First-year coach Darko Rajaković has spoken about adjusting some of the foundational underpinnings he has preached since the beginning of the season. No matter the roster they have had, the Raptors have struggled defensively this season. After ranking eighth in the league defensively in their first 10 games, they ranked 18th, 19th, 27th and 26th in their next 10-game sets, respectively. They’ve started the next 10 in 13th, which is meaningful for this younger team.

To get more precise, in your team’s case, who are those players you will be zeroing in on as the season winds down? It can be one player or the development of a few different players’ skills.

Edwards: For me, it’s Cunningham, Ivey, Thompson and Duren, as well as the newly-acquired Simone Fontecchio (aka Tek-19). The first four have the most upside to be top-20 players one day, so it’s clear why they get the bulk of the attention. However, as it pertains to Tek-19, I’m curious to see how he fares in a bigger role. It’s only been a few games but coach Monty Williams has used him a bit like how the team used Bojan Bogdanović when he was here. Is Tek-19 able to provide 80 percent of that offense while being a major upgrade defensively? I’m eager to find out.

Robbins: How will Bilal Coulibaly finish his rookie season, and will he offer additional glimpses on how high his ceiling can be? Will Avdija maintain the momentum he brought into the All-Star break? Will Poole regain traction? Will Johnny Davis show he can be an NBA player? Those are some of the questions I would like answered.

Koreen: I’ve already written about a few of my curiosities. The core of this team is obvious, but I want to see how Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley play off of each other. Since the Pascal Siakam trade, Gradey Dick is looking more like the player the Raptors thought they were getting late in last June’s lottery, shooting 51 percent from the floor and 45 percent from 3.

Additionally, I want to see how Barnes looks as the “point guard” in a shooting-heavy second unit. I am curious how a lineup of Barnes, Dick, Trent, Kelly Olynyk and Bruce Brown would fare, other than being poor defensively.

From a coverage standpoint, how do you treat the end of the season? Some of the above goes into what you’re inquiring and writing about, but what else are you trying to bring to readers? Is there still patience from readers to consume something light after a year of disappointment — expected or otherwise? (Yes, I am stealing all your ideas.)

Edwards: This season is different from the last few because Detroit wanted to take a step forward and has taken 10 steps back. So I’ll continue to figure out why that is the case and if it is salvageable with a productive offseason. Other than that, I focus on the individual development of some of the names I’ve previously mentioned. Lastly, around the time March Madness hits, I pivot to some draft coverage. People, particularly in Detroit, need hope.

Robbins: I’ll treat the end of a season the same way I treated the last few months, with one general exception: Whether the Wizards win or lose individual games matters less now than it did several months ago. This would be different if the 2024 NBA Draft included someone who is considered a generational talent such as Victor Wembanyama. While improving lottery odds still is important, it’s nowhere near as important as it was down the stretch of last season.

The beauty of this sport, and sports in general, is that there’s no shortage of interesting storylines even if a team is well out of the playoff picture.

Part of what makes the Wizards’ situation so interesting is that there’s a lot new with the franchise. The hiring last year of Michael Winger, and the subsequent hiring of Will Dawkins, didn’t just initiate a new rebuild; those moves set in motion new ways of doing things for the franchise, and those are of interest to readers.

Koreen: Let’s fast forward a year: What’s your best guess about your team’s standing in the Eastern Conference, and their general momentum? Any major changes you would predict?

Part of the reason I am less concerned than many Raptors fans regarding the status of their draft pick this year is that I would expect them to be in this position for at least one more year after this one. Their pick is top-six protected through 2026, so my thought is better to give it up this year when people smarter than me believe the draft is not very good, even if that pick is “better” than it might be in the next few years.

Other than the Wizards — sorry Josh — I don’t see a team that is behind where the Raptors are in the Eastern Conference. That is not to say the Pistons, Charlotte Hornets, Brooklyn Nets, Atlanta Hawks and Chicago Bulls couldn’t find a way down into this conversation at this time next year, but it’s hard for me to imagine a scenario in which the Raptors are altogether out of it. (Obviously, the Hornets and Pistons are already in this conversation from a record perspective. We see you, Charlotte.) The Raptors’ possibilities for next year range between hanging around the back end of the Play-In Tournament and ping-pong ball hunting.

Edwards: I don’t even know where to start with a prediction. The Pistons have single-digit wins and it’s almost March. No one can predict that. I thought this team would hover somewhere between 27-32 wins this season, so I missed something somewhere. To save my butt because I’d rather be overly cautious than overly optimistic, I think Detroit adds some decent pieces over the summer — hello, Tobias Harris — and is in contention for a postseason spot. I don’t know if they’ll get it but the Pistons will have a realistic shot to get there by this time next season.

Robbins: Next year, I expect the Wizards to be better through their first 56 games than 9-47, but they’ll still be at or near the bottom of the NBA standings.

Washington is still in the initial stages of what most likely will be a long rebuild. It would’ve been one thing if Winger and Dawkins had inherited a team flush with draft capital, but they did not. Bradley Beal’s no-trade clause and unwillingness to go to any team other than the Suns hurt. Kristaps Porziņģis’ intention to test unrestricted free agency during the summer of 2023 also tied Winger’s and Dawkins’ hands.

Making matters worse, the Wizards have begun their rebuild at an inopportune draft cycle since the 2024 draft does not seem to have a franchise-cornerstone prospect along the lines of Wembanyama or perhaps even along the lines of Brandon Miller or Scoot Henderson. Patience will be required for everyone involved.

(Bonus answer: Tyreke Evans.)