As the playoff race continues to heat up and the trade deadline nears, it’s a busy time for the Detroit Red Wings.
Tuesday, they made news by signing Michael Rasmussen to a four-year extension. And the buzz is only going to heat up more between now and the deadline on March 8.
So, as that date draws closer, it’s a great time to dive into our February mailbag to see what’s on fans’ minds.
Note: Questions have been lightly edited for clarity and length.
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We are about one year from the Filip Hronek trade to the Canucks for draft picks. Do you sense any regret by the Wings given his production this year? — Will G.
I don’t. Hronek is certainly having an outstanding season — entering Tuesday, his 42 points in 57 games ranked 10th among NHL defensemen, improving upon his breakout last season despite a dip in his shooting percentage. He’s a great defenseman.
But I don’t believe the Red Wings traded Hronek doubting that. He was a highly valued contributor in Detroit, and even when Moritz Seider assumed the top-pair role, Hronek was playing more than 21 minutes a night, producing .63 points per game for the Red Wings last season — not that far off the .74 he’s producing now. So I don’t think you’d find anyone in Detroit shocked at what he’s accomplishing in Vancouver, especially considering he’s playing on a defense pair with Norris Trophy favorite Quinn Hughes on one of the league’s highest-scoring teams.
Certainly, he would help them in their playoff chase, but after this season, Hronek’s going to be due a sizable raise. He’s coming in for his third contract, and he’s going to cash in on this career year in a big way. That next AAV was going to be sizable even off his Detroit production, and now it’s only going to get bigger. Detroit probably could have made that work, but considering the raises they’re already going to be giving Seider and Lucas Raymond this summer, taking the short-term hit of losing Hronek to get a first-round pick they used on an eventual Hronek replacement in Axel Sandin Pellikka served the long-term interests in Detroit.
It made sense then, and it still makes sense, even as the Red Wings have proven to be a better team than they might have expected to be one year ago. And with the present savings on Hronek, they signed Shayne Gostisbehere, whose 33 points are good enough to rank top-20 among NHL defenders. He’s not up to Hronek’s caliber defensively, mind you, but when you take that whole picture, I don’t think Detroit will be having any regrets.
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Hey Max — can you help us understand the line combinations a little better? The Andrew Copp/Michael Rasmussen/Christian Fischer combo has been a revelation as a third line and I hope that magic keeps flowing. I’m particularly flummoxed when I see Daniel Sprong on the fourth line and Robby Fabbri and David Perron higher in the lineup. — Jennifer W.
I wrote about this recently with Sprong, and certainly, he has produced at a great rate. But there are a couple of reasons I believe Perron tends to play higher in the lineup (I know you also mentioned Fabbri, but both Fabbri and Sprong routinely play on the fourth line and have very similar average time on ice, so I’ll focus on Perron).
First, they bring different skill sets. Both can score, but Perron is among the best puck protectors in the NHL, and relatedly his wall play is outstanding. That’s crucial to extending possessions while playing with Detroit’s most skilled players in the top six — Dylan Larkin, Raymond, Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane can all do dirty work down low to varying degrees, but when you have someone like Perron who excels in those areas, it frees them up to hunt shots and find space. That’s highly desirable.
Second, there’s always a debate with players like Sprong who score at a high per-minute rate as to whether that means you should play them more (more minutes equals more goals) or leave them producing where they are because it’s valuable to have players that can produce in your bottom six. There’s no one consistent answer, but with Sprong, I think the Red Wings lean more toward the latter — allowing them to hide some of Sprong’s defensive shortcomings and continue to put him against favorable matchups where he can score those goals that help them win.
Is it totally fair to Sprong, who may well be able to score 30 goals if he was playing 20 minutes a night? Maybe not. But the goal is to put the best team and best lineup on the ice, and having Sprong in the bottom six has certainly led to great offensive results for the Red Wings this season.
Any thoughts on moving Ghost (Gostisbehere) at the deadline? — Jeffrey K.
If the Red Wings fall out of the playoff race, then I think naturally Gostisbehere is a name that would get attention as a power-play specialist — just as Carolina traded for him last season. I would caution fans, though, that when he was dealt last year, he only returned a third-round pick, and it’s not as if the market would be radically different this time around.
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So really, the benefit to entertaining such a deal would be to make room for Simon Edvinsson to get time before the end of the season. I guess technically the Red Wings could do that even while still in the playoff hunt, but I don’t think I see them messing with something that’s worked while in the thick of that race.
Anything can happen, and Steve Yzerman always is liable for a surprise move, but that’d be my hunch.
Do you think there’s any interest and/or fit for the Wings with the younger guys in the rumor mill? No reason for another sell-off this year but if there’s a hockey deal to be made? I’d love to see Kaapo Kakko in the Winged Wheel. Would something like defensive depth (Ben Chiarot/Olli Määttä/Justin Holl) with salary retained and Jonatan Berggren be a starting point? — Matt R.
I think targeting a younger NHL player on the trade market could certainly fit the Red Wings, especially at forward, where it’s not yet clear whether Detroit’s next wave of forward prospects (Carter Mazur, Nate Danielson and Marco Kasper) will be ready for the NHL next season. Kakko, in particular, would be an interesting name as a big-bodied forward who can bring elements Detroit lacks to go with the skill that made him the second pick in 2019.
I don’t think that package would get you anywhere close, though. Kakko’s having a down year, for sure, but he was a 40-point player in the NHL at age 21 last season. He’s probably still worth the equivalent of a first-round pick. My guess is he doesn’t move at this deadline, but if he does, I’d think it’s for an upper-lineup veteran who can help the New York Rangers now and in the future (so not a rental). I think he’d be a really interesting target for the Red Wings this offseason, but I certainly wouldn’t expect him to come cheap.
How would you grade Steve Yzerman’s drafts so far? — Luka K.
This is a great question from Luka, with an answer that needs some nuance. I think the Red Wings have been quite good with their first picks under Yzerman. His first two first-rounders, Seider and Raymond, have looked like young pillars, playing at or above their draft slot while already in major roles in the NHL. His next pick, Edvinsson, is someone I expect to be a pillar too, after time to adjust in the NHL.
Kasper and Danielson may not have the star potential those first three possess, but I think both are going to be highly valued parts of an NHL lineup, Kasper as a gritty forward who will win battles all over the ice, and Danielson as a savvy, smooth-skating center who can play in all situations. Add in Sandin Pellikka and Sebastian Cossa as upside swings with additional first-round picks (and Sandin Pellikka progressing especially promisingly as such), and I’d give Detroit’s first-rounders a high mark.
Where it gets tricky is beyond the first round. Because while it’s still a little early by NHL standards to assess second-, third- and fourth-round picks, Detroit has yet to get any NHL contribution from its picks in that range. In fact, the only Red Wings draft pick picked beyond the first round since Yzerman took over to make the NHL is 2019 sixth-rounder Elmer Söderblom, who had 8 points in 21 games last season and has spent all of this campaign in the AHL.
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That doesn’t mean the Red Wings have done nothing in the middle rounds. Again, it’s somewhat early for players in that range still. Mazur looks like a future middle-six NHL winger, which is great value as a third-round pick, and could be that as soon as sometime next season for Detroit. The Red Wings have taken swings on toolsy defensemen in the second round, and all of William Wallinder, Albert Johansson and Antti Tuomisto are now in Grand Rapids, with Johansson probably ready to take NHL minutes if needed, and Wallinder maybe a year away. Shai Buium could join them in Grand Rapids next season.
In Russia, Dmitri Buchelnikov is having an impressive age-20 season in the KHL. And just this past draft, they took goaltender Trey Augustine, who is having a great freshman season at Michigan State, and another promising blueliner in Andrew Gibson from the OHL.
From that group, I think over time the Red Wings will find a handful of NHL regulars, with Mazur, Wallinder and Augustine the best bets. But all along, we’ve talked about the need for the Red Wings to find a star somewhere beyond the first round, and I’m not sure I see that looking at their system. There are players with skill, players with grit, players with physical tools — players who can help them.
I believe the rule of thumb is that you expect to get two NHLers out of a draft class. Over time, I think the Red Wings will hit that benchmark. But they haven’t yet found that slam-dunk difference-maker outside the first round, and that has to be at least somewhat concerning.
To me, it seems like the biggest hole on this team is a legitimate 2D to either play opposite Seider or lead a pair that takes some of the heavier minutes off Seider. How can Stevie address this hole in the short term and long term? — Zach M.
In the long term, I think Edvinsson will be the answer as another big-minute horse who can eat 22-plus minutes a game, taking tough matchups and generating some offense, too. In the short term, he’ll need time to grow into that once he reaches the NHL, and that’s where it gets tricky. I suppose Yzerman could go hunting for a stopgap, but the Red Wings have already tied up quite a bit of term on the blue line.
That makes me wonder if the realistic path might be something more along the lines of what the New Jersey Devils have done, letting their young defenders Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec take their lumps a bit. It is possible, though, that Detroit could trade or explore a buyout on one or more of their defensemen this summer and try to find an upgrade on the free-agent market.
With no first- or second-year players on the roster this year, how many rookies do you see coming up next season? It seems like there are a ton of guys in GR who are ready for a shot with even more on the way, but a team loaded with rookies doesn’t seem like the best idea. — Landon K.
It’s a great question because we haven’t seen much willingness from this regime to have more than a couple of rookies on the team at once. I think at least one is a lock next year and as many as three could be possible. But beyond that, I tend to agree that a group loaded with rookies is dicey for a team that just finally seems to be rounding the corner. And really, it all depends on how Kasper, Danielson, Mazur, Edvinsson and perhaps Johansson look next fall.
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Something NHL-related but not Red Wing-related. The PWHL has instituted a “jailbreak” rule where if the short-handed team scores on the penalty kill, the player in the box becomes “freed” and it becomes five-on-five. … What are your thoughts on this rule and should the NHL implement it? — Emerson V.
Simple answer here: yes. I love the rule, and the incentive to be more aggressive on the kill. It feels like a slam dunk to me.
Can you talk about how the mood has changed around the team from, say, two years ago? I know there are new faces, but it must be such a turnaround with them at least vying for contention this year. — Jake M.
It’s been night and day. I even noticed it last February, when they were on their mini-run to get into the race, how much more talkative and upbeat the room was during availabilities. The nature of this job means trying to talk to people who aren’t always in the mood to talk, but it’s been so refreshing to be around energy where players have been eager to talk about what’s working with the team — and even what needs to be improved. I wonder if that latter element is because of how much more realistic and attainable improvement feels now, from a group that has succeeded and knows that’s within its capabilities.
I think I’ve said this before, but it’s the top reason I think the Red Wings have been right to add and try to get more competitive. I don’t think it would have been healthy for guys like Seider, Raymond and even Larkin (who was in much tougher circumstances for a long time) to stay in the basement for an extended time.
(Top photo of Dylan Larkin and Filip Hronek: Bob Frid / USA Today)