The UEFA Champions League will be changing format next season and expanding from 32 teams to 36 — and Premier League clubs are hoping to boost their chances of qualifying for the lucrative tournament.
That’s because two leagues will get an extra place in the competition based on performances in Europe this season, which are measured by the coefficient rankings.
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But England’s Premier League is currently lagging behind Italy’s Serie A and Germany’s Bundesliga in the race for an additional spot, which means English top-flight sides will be paying close attention to two European matches in particular this week.
In the Champions League, Borussia Dortmund host PSV today, with the aggregate score 1-1 after the first leg in Eindhoven. An away win would seriously dent the Bundesliga’s chances of securing an additional European spot, which would be good news for the Premier League.
But the most interesting game is in the Europa League. West Ham United host SC Freiburg, with the Bundesliga side 1-0 up after the opening leg in Germany. The game is essentially a straight UEFA coefficient shootout: if West Ham win, the Premier League’s coefficient ranking will strengthen and the Bundesliga’s will weaken.
Italy’s Serie A is sitting pretty at the top of the coefficient ranking, meaning there will also be additional intrigue around the fortunes of Inter Milan, AC Milan, Atalanta, Roma and Fiorentina. But what are the Premier League’s current chances of sending five teams to the Champions League next season. We explain all below.
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Why is there an extra Champions League place on offer?
The Champions League will expand at the beginning of next season from the current 32-team format to a 36-team one. The Athletic has explained the format change in great detail, which you can find below.
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How the new Champions League format works
Of those extra four group-stage places, one will be given to the nation that finishes this season fifth in UEFA’s association club coefficient ranking (it’s currently France) and one will be earned by a lesser domestic champion from somewhere across the continent through the qualification rounds. The remaining two will go to the nations whose clubs perform best in this season’s European competitions.
These latter two are being called the ‘European Performance Spots’ by UEFA and could lead to the fifth-placed Premier League team making it directly into next season’s group stage.
So, which nations are leading the race for an extra Champions League place?
As we wait to see which teams will make up the quarter-final line-ups across all three competitions, Italy and Germany lead the way.
But only just.
| Pos | Nation | Coefficient points | Active clubs |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Italy | 16.571 | 5/7 |
2 | Germany | 15.500 | 4/7 |
3 | England | 15.000 | 6/8 |
4 | France | 14.416 | 3/6 |
5 | Spain | 13.812 | 4/8 |
6 | Czech Republic | 13.000 | 3/4 |
7 | Belgium | 12.400 | 2/5 |
Manchester United and Newcastle United’s fourth-placed finishes and premature eliminations from the Champions League have hurt England’s chances of a top-two spot. But Arsenal’s penalty shootout triumph against Porto and Manchester City’s convincing progression has helped significantly.
That help is, however, immediately hindered by Roma’s 4-0 thrashing of Brighton at the Stadio Olimpico and West Ham’s 1-0 first-leg defeat away to Freiburg.
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With that emphatic victory, the Romans have helped put Italy in a very strong position, despite neighbours Lazio’s Champions League last-16 elimination. Inter will take a lead to Madrid where they face Atletico while their four Serie A peers — Milan, Atalanta, Roma and Fiorentina — are well set to progress to the quarter-finals in the Europa League and Europa Conference League.
To ensure they receive an extra spot, Germany need to hold off England in the coefficient table. To do that, they could do with Dortmund utilising home advantage to see off PSV in the Champions League after RB Leipzig were beaten over two legs by Real Madrid.
And then a potentially huge game in the world of coefficients as West Ham host Freiburg in the Europa League on Thursday looking to overturn their one-goal deficit. After battling back to a 2-2 draw, Bundesliga leaders Bayer Leverkusen are well fancied to advance against Azerbaijani side Qarabag.
France and Spain in the positions below England likely to struggle to mount a challenge for one of the two extra Champions League places as half of their European representatives have been knocked out.
What do Premier League clubs need to do this season?
If only it was as easy as saying “Arsenal need to reach X stage, Liverpool need to avoid being eliminated until Y and Villa need to do Z” but there are so many moving parts here, making any calculations incredibly complicated.
In essence, it is a case of needing English clubs generally to go as far as possible in their respective competitions while picking off representatives of their closest rival nations in the process.
Champions League holders Manchester City remain favourites to retain their Champions League crown while Arsenal are into the quarter-final for the first time in 14 years. It is important that they avoid each other for as long as possible in Friday’s draw.
In the Europa League, it is Liverpool who have the targets on their back as favourites. And they may need to live up to their hype with Brighton all-but out and West Ham’s tournament future in the balance.
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The bookmakers are predicting an English clean sweep on the trophy front as Aston Villa stand alone as Conference League favourites, although their last-16 tie is on a knife edge after a goalless draw away to Ajax last week. Progression at Villa Park on Thursday would only further enhance their status as favourites.
Who stands to benefit from the potential extra Champions League place?
It may be doubly beneficial for Emery and his players to reach the latter stages of the Conference League as they are one of the sides who could finish fifth.
In fact, they are now the most likely team to finish fifth after a 4-0 home defeat to closest challengers Tottenham on Sunday. Unai Emery’s side are clinging onto fourth place, but their conquerers are two points them with a game in hand.
It feels like Manchester United have left themselves with too much to do, with back-to-back defeats to Fulham and Manchester City surely consigning them another Europa League campaign.
Here is Opta’s prediction for the fifth-place finisher:
| Team | Probability of fifth place |
|---|---|
53.4% | |
30.7% | |
11.3% | |
1.5% |
Tottenham have a greater probability of finishing in fourth, at 60.9 per cent.
How can coefficient points be accrued?
As the above chart shows, there are lots of points left to be collected. With fewer teams left in Europe to win them, they are even more valuable and will have a greater difference to the overall ranking.
The coefficient that contributes to that ranking is worked out as an average rather than a total, in order to cancel out the advantage gained by nations with more representatives in Europe. The equation is simple: number of points accumulated by teams in a nation divided by number of competing teams.
So, as there were eight English teams competing in Europe at the start of the season, each English team’s points are divided by eight.
Here is how each country accumulates those points:
UCL = UEFA Champions League, UEL = UEFA Europa League, UECL = UEFA Europa Conference League
- 2 – All wins from group stage (UCL, UEL, UECL)
- 1 – All wins in qualifying and play-off matches (UCL, UEL, UECL)
- 1 – All draws from group stage (UCL, UEL, UECL)
- 0.5 – All draws in qualifying and play-off matches (UCL, UEL, UECL)
- 4 – Group stage bonus participation (UCL)
- 4 – Round of 16 bonus participation (UCL)
- 4 – Group winners (UEL)
- 2 – Group runners-up (UEL)
- 2 – Group winners (UECL)
- 1 – Group runners-up (UECL)
- 1 – Each round clubs reach from the round of 16 (UCL, UEL)
- 1 – Each round clubs reach from the semi-finals (UECL)
(Top photo: Nesimages/Michael Bulder/DeFodi Images via Getty Images)