Lowetide: Why Oilers forward Sam Gagner is having success in his role

The Edmonton Oilers signed veteran forward Corey Perry on Monday, giving the team another wrinkle on the wing for the stretch run and playoffs.

Already heavy on two-way types (Mattias Janmark, Derek Ryan, Connor Brown) who can penalty kill and be trusted at five-on-five, the addition of Perry gives coach Kris Knoblauch an agitator with no fear and an ability to get opponents off their game.

The other veteran in the group is Sam Gagner. Currently on his third tour with the Oilers, he goes all the way back to the beginning of the “decade of darkness” and has seen some tough days playing hockey in Edmonton.

The first time Gagner played for the team, coach Craig MacTavish ran the young pivot with youngsters Robert Nilsson and Andrew Cogliano. The trio scored well (Gagner posted a 2.77 points per 60 with Nilsson and 2.89 points per 60 at five-on-five in 2007-08, via Natural Stat Trick) but the line was outscored (Gagner: 38-49, 44 percent) badly in what was a rebuilding year.

Gagner continued in that role (offensive centre-wing) until being dealt in a three-way deal to the Arizona Coyotes.

Per 82 games from 2007-08 through 2013-14, Gagner averaged 17 goals and 50 points (0.61 points per game). His five-on-five goal share (264-308, 46 percent) reflected his struggles and the generally poor quality of the teams he played for in Edmonton.

His seasons with the team since the initial run show a player who has matured. Gagner plays less than he did a few years ago, but in 2023-24 is a roaring success.

All numbers five-on-five

That’s outstanding production from a bottom-six forward.

What’s more, his offensive output depends very little on Edmonton’s elite centres. Entering Tuesday’s game, Gagner has played 30 minutes with Connor McDavid at five-on-five without scoring a point and has played just 13 minutes with Leon Draisaitl, recording one point.

He plays depth minutes and so far this season Gagner is plundering opponents. Here are his minutes and scoring success with various linemates:

Player	TOI	Gagner Pts-60
James Hamblin	75	3.18
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	49	1.23
Derek Ryan	47	3.84
Ryan McLeod	42	1.4
Evander Kane	40	2.96
Connor McDavid	30	0
Warren Foegele	21	2.75
Connor Brown	15	4.04
Dylan Holloway	15	4.05
Leon Draisaitl	13	4.48
Adam Erne	12	10.3

All numbers five-on-five

There are very few pure utility offensive forwards in the NHL at any given time. Most of that group is populated by young players who either find a way to move up the depth chart (Daniel Sprong) or fade despite real and obvious offensive ability (Martin Frk).

Gagner could have faded from the NHL years ago, but his desire to remain in the league dictated adjustment in his game.

He remains an exceptional passer, always an elite skill for him. He has moved off centre and plays the wing, using his intelligence to remain on the good side of the puck (he is used for offensive-zone faceoffs more than defensive-zone faceoffs).

Puck IQ and the soft parade

Theoretically, a team’s depth lines should be playing against the opposition’s depth lines. I call those units the soft parade.

The Oilers are long past having enforcers hang out on the fourth line, but have endured some dark days over the last decade in these moments.

Puck IQ has Gagner thriving against elites, and doing well against the softer opponents.

All numbers five-on-five

These totals are not reliable due to lack of sample size (200 minutes in each metric is required, Gagner hasn’t played 200 total minutes at five-on-five this season).

He has struggled against mid-level competition, possibly a reflection of the low minutes total.

Gagner can succeed against all levels of opponent while not relying on the impact centres. That has real value.

Best lines

During the 2023-24 season, the Oilers are 10-7 goals five-on-five (59 percent) while Gagner is on the ice, 53 percent with him off the ice.

First blush would suggest he is getting a push with one of the superstars (he is not) or a massive offensive zone advantage (it is there but not overwhelming).

Gagner hasn’t played enough to be associated with a specific linemate or line.

The most common line this season has Gagner with Ryan and James Hamblin. In 42 minutes at five-on-five, the trio has scored 2-1 goals and owns an expected goal share of 61 percent.

His second most common line has him on right wing with centre Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Evander Kane. In 20 minutes this season, the line is 1-1 goals and 61 percent expected goals.

Gagner is a plug-and-play option up and down the depth chart.

It is a small sample, and there is half a season to go, but Gagner’s performance with Hamblin and Ryan this season ranks as the most effective outscoring line in his time with Edmonton.

All numbers five-on-five

In Gagner’s first two seasons in the NHL, coach MacTavish found his young line some clean air and the group enjoyed success.

In his third year, new coach Pat Quinn had Gagner start the season on the fourth line between Ethan Moreau and Zack Stortini. It didn’t last long (the line spent just 23 minutes together all year). Gagner landed on an effective line with Dustin Penner and Robert Nilsson.

Tom Renney took over as coach in 2010-11 and Gagner fell on hard times. He was not effective with Magnus Paajarvi and Linus Omark, and also struggled with Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle.

From there, Gagner’s outscoring and point totals were a concern, while his cap hit kept going up.

MacTavish, by then Edmonton’s general manager, signed Gagner to a three-year deal with a cap hit of $4.8 million in July 2013 and traded him the following June.

Gagner’s early arrival in the NHL, and his ability to produce offence, meant his contract was inefficient by the time he turned 24.

In both of his return trips to the organization, Gagner has been a value contract.

The future

Perry’s arrival is sending ripples through the roster.

Adam Erne cleared waivers and will play for the Bakersfield Condors until the playoffs. He’ll likely spend the spring with the big club as part of the taxi squad.

For the rest of the depth wingers, it will be an open competition.

The penalty-killing wingers on depth lines are Janmark, Ryan and Brown.

None of the third and fourth line wingers get much power-play work, but Perry could see some time there.

All five wingers (Gagner, Perry, Janmark, Ryan, Brown) will see time at even strength, but it’s likely one of them will be a healthy scratch for each game.

There are four right-handed wingers and Janmark. That could come into play.

Also important: Scoring and outscoring.

Player	TOI	Pts-60	Goal Share
Sam Gagner	9:35	2.81	59
Mattias Janmark	10:19	1.09	48
Derek Ryan	8:42	0.98	42
Connor Brown	11:17	0.46	30
Corey Perry	9:45	1.92	47

All numbers five-on-five

Gagner leads the group in points per 60 and in goal share.

It’s likely the club will rotate the player rested, but Gagner’s strong performance this season in a depth role puts him in a good position.

Gagner’s role

He is contributing to a team with a chance to win the Stanley Cup. There was a time (17 years ago) when the Oilers brought Gagner to the NHL as a teenager who represented hope for better times.

These long years later, Gagner is part of an Oilers team with a real chance to win it all.

It’s a great story in need of a championship ending.

(Photo: Sergei Belski / USA Today)