A dozen years ago, researchers at a Danish pharmaceutical company developed a diabetes treatment called semaglutide. It’s unlikely they knew then they’d discovered potentially one of the most transformational drugs of the 21st century.
Semaglutide belongs to a class of medications called GLP-1 and is most commonly known by the brand names Ozempic and Wegovy. These drugs have shown to be highly effective in managing weight loss and have become so popular around the globe for celebrities and anyone else looking to shed pounds around the waist that there’s a worldwide shortage.
We only can assume that the folks at the ACC are sitting on a stash of Ozempic because the conference’s NCAA Tournament hopes are looking awfully thin. OK, that was a nauseating transition, but perhaps a little humor is needed. Because for fans and those of a certain age who remember the conference’s (long-lasting!) glory days, the following is going to hurt like a jab in the thigh: This week’s Bracket Watch field includes just three ACC teams.
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North Carolina and Duke, it should come as no surprise, are in great shape and look like national title contenders. Clemson, which at one point was 11-1 and debuted in this space as a No. 3 seed, has gone 1-4 in 2024 with the sole win coming at home over Boston College. The Tigers are still solidly in the field thanks in large part to nonconference wins over Alabama and TCU, but at No. 38 in the NET, their team sheet looks a little flabby around the edges.
And that’s … all there is for ACC teams in the top 40 of the NET. Let’s peek into the rest of the pantry:
• Wake Forest has played well since transfer Efton Reid became eligible. But the Demon Deacons have no Quad 1 wins, are 47th in the NET and haven’t beaten a top-85 team away from home. It’s not enough to get off the bubble yet, especially since they lost to Georgia, LSU, Florida State and NC State, and one of their most notable wins came against …
• Miami. Metrics have never loved the Hurricanes, even as they went to the Final Four last year. But the team’s performance is making the computers look smart. The Canes have lost three of their last four, including a resume-killing Quad 4 setback against Louisville at home, and have twice as many losses in the bottom two quadrants (two) as Quad 1 wins. Miami, with its athleticism, is still a team you wouldn’t want to see in the bracket, but at 66th in KenPom, it’s not on track to get there.
• Florida State and NC State are tied for second in the league, a half-game ahead of Duke. FSU’s turnaround has been impressive — Leonard Hamilton’s team started 4-5 and has won seven of its past eight, including at Miami and against Wake Forest. But the one loss in there was at home against Lipscomb, and an earlier setback against South Florida will leave a mark. The Seminoles have at least given themselves a shot to get into the mix, but at 79th in KenPom and 88th in the NET, there’s much work to do. NC State has been respectable but has no Quad 1 wins and metrics in the 60s and 70s.
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• Virginia beat Virginia Tech on Wednesday in a game that was painful to watch (it was 25-18 at halftime). UVa has thrown out some real stinkers this year, including a 23-point loss to Memphis and a still-hard-to-believe 22-point blowout to Notre Dame. With no Quad 1 wins and shaky metrics, the Cavaliers still have a lot to prove. The Hokies have been on the edge of our field thanks to out-of-league wins against Iowa State and Boise State, but they’ve now lost four of their last five and are clearly on the outside looking in.
• Syracuse? All but two of the Orange’s wins came in Quads 3 and 4, and they lost by a combined 56 points to Duke and North Carolina. Empty calories here.
This is not just a one-year burp, either, as the ACC has not ranked higher than fifth in KenPom’s conference ratings since 2020. Last year, it was seventh, behind the Mountain West. Success in March — the league has produced four Final Four teams in the past four tournaments, including Virginia’s 2019 title — has masked a stark decline in regular-season prowess. Jokes were going around last year about a #OneBidACC, but the conference ended up with five teams in March Madness and posted a 7-5 record.
The news isn’t all bad. ACC teams notched some good wins in the nonconference, and mild improvement in the bottom of the league reduces the risk of devastating losses the rest of the way. Games against UNC or Duke, meanwhile, provide major statement opportunities. There are still 58 days until Selection Sunday, and this current three-bid status will almost certainly improve. But if you see an ACC fan, don’t be surprised if they’re a little sick to their stomach right now.
Some other notes on this week’s bracket:
• If these are lean times in the ACC, the Mountain West is looking robust. The MWC has five bids this week, which would match its previous high set in 2013. Getting six bids is not entirely out of the question, either, as Boise State — which is 6-4 in the first two quads — is lurking on the bubble despite a Quad 3 loss to UNLV on Tuesday. The Mountain West has four teams in the top 28 of the NET (twice as many as the ACC).
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• As we project automatic qualifiers from the likely one-bid conferences, we lean on metrics and current standings. And thus, we no longer can ignore that Saint Mary’s, not Gonzaga, sits in the driver’s seat in the WCC. So for the first time, we have the Zags out of the field. We wrote two weeks ago about how strange this is and Gonzaga’s challenges ahead.
• We’re sticking with the same four No. 1 seeds this week, but UConn moves to No. 2 overall. Kansas remains on the No. 2 line, but its metrics are inching closer toward the profile of a No. 1. The hardest call this week was the final No. 2 seed. We settled on a controversial choice: Auburn, which has no Quad 1 wins but has been utterly dominant. The metrics are elite: fourth in KenPom, sixth in BPI, seventh in the NET. The big wins, we believe, are coming soon.
• The complaints from ACC fans and Auburn fans should be interesting, but bring your questions to the comments section, and we’ll do our best to answer them as long as things remain civil. Just because Ozempic injections are prickly doesn’t mean we need to be.
| First Four Out | Next Four Out | Last Four In | Last Four Byes |
|---|---|---|---|
Gonzaga | Colorado | Providence | Texas Tech |
Wake Forest | Miami | Kansas State | Oregon |
Boise State | Xavier | New Mexico | Nebraska |
James Madison | Indiana State | South Carolina | Ole Miss |
| League | Bids |
|---|---|
Big 12 | 10 |
SEC | 8 |
Big East | 7 |
Big Ten | 6 |
Mountain West | 5 |
ACC | 3 |
Pac-12 | 3 |
AAC | 2 |
1 | Purdue | AQ |
2 | UConn | AQ |
3 | Houston | AQ |
4 | Arizona | AQ |
5 | Kansas | |
6 | North Carolina | AQ |
7 | Tennessee | AQ |
8 | Auburn | |
9 | Wisconsin | |
10 | Duke | |
11 | Kentucky | |
12 | Marquette | |
13 | Baylor | |
14 | Illinois | |
15 | Creighton | |
16 | Alabama | |
17 | BYU | |
18 | Dayton | AQ |
19 | Iowa State | |
20 | Colorado State | AQ |
21 | San Diego State | |
22 | Oklahoma | |
23 | Memphis | AQ |
24 | Florida Atlantic | |
25 | Villanova | |
26 | Seton Hall | |
27 | Utah State | |
28 | Clemson | |
29 | St. John's | |
30 | Utah | |
31 | Mississippi State | |
32 | Texas A&M | |
33 | Michigan State | |
34 | Nevada | |
35 | Northwestern | |
36 | Cincinnati | |
37 | TCU | |
38 | Grand Canyon | AQ |
39 | Texas Tech | |
40 | Oregon | |
41 | Nebraska | |
42 | Princeton | AQ |
43 | Ole Miss | |
44 | Saint Mary's | AQ |
45 | Providence | |
46 | Kansas State | |
47 | New Mexico | |
48 | South Carolina | |
49 | Drake | AQ |
50 | McNeese State | AQ |
51 | UC Irvine | AQ |
52 | Appalachian State | AQ |
53 | Samford | AQ |
54 | Akron | AQ |
55 | High Point | AQ |
56 | Drexel | AQ |
57 | Eastern Washington | AQ |
58 | Morehead State | AQ |
59 | Vermont | AQ |
60 | Oakland | AQ |
61 | Colgate | AQ |
62 | Kennesaw State | AQ |
63 | Sam Houston State | AQ |
64 | Denver | AQ |
65 | Southern | AQ |
66 | Saint Peter's | AQ |
67 | Norfolk State | AQ |
68 | Merrimack | AQ |
(Top photo of Wake Forest’s Zach Keller (25) and Cameron Hildreth (2) and Florida State’s Cam Corhen (3): Melina Myers / USA Today)