The midway point of the NBA 2023-24 season is almost here, and that makes this the perfect time for The Athletic to review what’s happened so far — and to make some predictions about the future.
Beginning today, and continuing Thursday and Monday, we’ll examine the season from every perspective.
Today, we’ll reevaluate moves made during the 2023 offseason and identify the teams and players that have overachieved and underachieved.
To tip things off, we’ve assembled three of our NBA writers: Will Guillory, in New Orleans; Eric Koreen, in Toronto; and Josh Robbins, in Washington.
Let’s evaluate some of the moves made during the 2023 offseason. Which decision has turned out best so far, and why?
Will Guillory: The biggest move this offseason wasn’t one singular trade. It was the Boston Celtics somehow turning Marcus Smart, Malcolm Brogdon and Robert Williams III into Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porziņģis with two separate deals. The previous iteration of the Celtics was already one of the best teams in the NBA. But adding Holiday and Porziņģis made this group the clear favorite to win the title this season. They even have a chance to make history after starting 19-0 at home. The moves they made over the summer certainly sacrificed some depth, which they’ll have to address before the trade deadline. Still, as long as the starting five remains healthy, Boston will be a matchup nightmare for anyone in its path.
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Eric Koreen: How about a non-move: the Minnesota Timberwolves standing pat, more or less, after a disappointing first year following the Rudy Gobert trade. Given how much they gave up to acquire Gobert, the pressure was on to change something dramatically following barely squeaking into the playoffs and a five-game exodus in the first round. They could have moved on from head coach Chris Finch, traded Karl-Anthony Towns or simply not extended Jaden McDaniels and kept their financial options open. Instead, the Timberwolves continued to believe in what they had put together, and now are one of the best teams in the NBA, a legitimate title threat.
Josh Robbins: The Milwaukee Bucks trading for Damian Lillard has turned out great — but not because that move will catapult the Bucks back to the NBA Finals. The truth is, despite what Lillard brings on offense, the Bucks may not be as strong as they were at this time last season. Losing Holiday has severely impacted Milwaukee’s defense; Milwaukee entered Tuesday ranked 19th in points allowed per possession, which is cause for concern.
But the Lillard trade already has been a huge win for the Bucks, and here’s why: It helped pave the way for Giannis Antetokounmpo to sign a contract extension, as The Athletic’s Eric Nehm and Sam Amick have written. The extension runs through the 2026-27 season and includes a player option for the 2027-28 season. Keeping Giannis keeps the Bucks relevant.
Look, as much as I enjoy Milwaukee as a great place to raise a family, it’s not one of the NBA’s glamour cities. All small-market franchises have to worry about keeping their superstars. But Antetokounmpo has remained happy in Milwaukee; a large part of that has to do with his essential character traits, of course, but it also stems from the Bucks doing what’s been necessary to surround him with the right players. Adding Lillard certainly qualifies. And that already makes adding Lillard a huge win.
Which 2023 offseason move has underwhelmed the most so far, and why?
Guillory: I’ll say Jordan Poole’s move from the Golden State Warriors to the Wizards. It’s so easy to forget that just two years ago this guy was a difference-maker on a team that won the NBA Finals. Now, he’s become one of the biggest punchlines in the league. And it’s not just because of the memeable moments he frequently produces. His efficiency is awful for someone with such a high usage rate, and he holds the worst individual plus-minus of any player in the NBA. (His teammate Kyle Kuzma is a close second.) Over the summer, some folks joked about Poole averaging 30 points per game once he was given the freedom to be a No. 1 option on a team with low expectations. Now, he may have turned himself into the least valuable asset in the NBA.
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Koreen: The Bradley Beal trade and related transactions didn’t necessarily cost the Phoenix Suns much, but they consolidated their assets even more following the Kevin Durant trade. The moves put huge pressure on a big three which features two players — Beal and Durant — who are frequently injured. Phoenix’s depth is mostly minimum signings as a result. Beal has missed most of the season, and the Suns are staying afloat, barely, because of the brilliance of Durant and Devin Booker. If all three are healthy in April and May, the Suns will still be a difficult out in the Western Conference. But the first half of their season has shown their margin for error is thin.
Robbins: I’m going to pull “an Eric Koreen” here and go with a non-move: How about the Chicago Bulls’ decision to keep their veteran nucleus together? Not moving DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine and also re-signing Nikola Vučević is laudable in the sense the Bulls are trying to win. But that core group has topped out, and the Bulls are 20th out of 30 teams in the standings. In other words, they’re mediocre, and in the NBA, it’s difficult for a franchise mired in mediocrity to make marked long-term improvements. At this moment, the Bulls seem stuck in the mud. That, along with DeRozan’s expiring contract, makes the Bulls a fascinating team to watch as the trade deadline approaches.
Which player or team has exceeded expectations the most?
Guillory: While I was a big fan of Chet Holmgren when he came out of Gonzaga a few years ago, there’s no way I could’ve imagined he would be this good in his first full season. Certainly, it helps that he was given a full redshirt season to prepare himself for the physicality of the NBA and to tighten up his skills. Now that he’s healthy, he’s blossomed into the favorite for Rookie of the Year and legitimately one of the best centers in the NBA. He’s a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in Year 1 and he’s averaging nearly 18 points per game on 55/39/80 shooting splits. With Holmgren manning the middle, Oklahoma City has turned into a legitimate title contender. This was a team that barely snuck into the Play-In last season, despite having a first-team All-NBA caliber season from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Koreen: All aboard the Coby White hype train! Since Dec. 1, the former Chicago Bulls lottery pick is averaging 22.7 points, 5.8 assists and 5.9 rebounds per game on 48/42/81 shooting splits. Before the season, the Bulls got White to sign a three-year, $36-million extension. The Toronto Raptors acquired Immanuel Quickley in the OG Anunoby trade, and will be lucky if they can sign the guard, averaging 18.9 points, 4.6 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game since the trade, to a deal in restricted free agency with a starting salary that is double White’s. The Bulls have been in a self-defeating cycle of going-for-it moves, with few, if any of them, paying off. One of the best things that can happen to a franchise, in terms of team-building, is signing a contributor to a multi-year contract just before he breaks out. The White deal doesn’t erase what came before it, but it helps cushion the blow.
Robbins: The Timberwolves have been the NBA’s best overachievers. Eric touched on this earlier, but it deserves to be repeated: Minnesota has staged an epic turnaround. The Wolves finished last season eighth in the West standings and fell to the Denver Nuggets in the first round of the playoffs. This year, they lead the West with a 28-11 record and have the NBA’s top-ranked defense. Anthony Edwards is on the verge of superstardom, and Gobert has resuscitated his career.
Which player or team has failed to live up to expectations the most?
Guillory: While I’m tempted to say the Warriors here because they’ve been such a disaster, I have to go with the Los Angeles Lakers. After bringing mostly the same group back that went to the Western Conference Finals last year, it’s been shocking to see the Lakers struggle so much to keep their heads above water. I’m not the first to spotlight this point, but Anthony Davis and LeBron James have missed a combined six games so far this season. In the past, it’s been Davis and James missing games that have led to some of the Lakers’ struggles. They’ve been bad this season with both of those guys suiting up almost every night. The expectations will be championship-or-bust for any team that includes LeBron. But with this group, Los Angeles might have to make some moves to have a chance to reach the Play-In.
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Koreen: I imagine this will be dominated by the Suns/Lakers/Warriors triangle of sadness, and with good reason. A face in the palm for the Atlanta Hawks is deserved, though. Following his tenure in Utah, Quin Snyder seemed like one of the best coaches in the NBA, and he perhaps still deserves that reputation. However, the Hawks are even worse than they were last year, when they had more natural chemistry with the .500 mark than Tom Hanks had with Meg Ryan. The Hawks, thanks to their abysmal defense, are a mess, and look as if they are going to have to move Dejounte Murray within two years of trading for him at a significant net loss of assets just to be able to chart a sensible path forward. Cue the sad bird noise.
Robbins: No one should have expected the Detroit Pistons to charge into the playoffs this season. But even with relatively low expectations, it’s difficult to ignore the ineptitude of any team that opens a season with a 4-36 record, including a 28-game losing streak. That puts them on track to win a grand total of only eight games. I’ll go out on a limb here and say they’ll reach double-digit wins, but that doesn’t make their dismal first half of the season any less of a disappointment.
What has surprised you most in the league this season?
Guillory: That the worst teams in the league have been this bad before even making it to the All-Star break. We expected some of this last season with major prizes like Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson sitting at the top of the lottery board, but last year’s bad teams would mop the floor with some of this year’s bottom feeders. While it’s easy to point and laugh at the Pistons and their record-breaking 28-game losing streak, teams like the Hornets, Blazers, Wizards and Spurs have been just as putrid as Detroit during certain stretches. And their awful play hasn’t been with a bigger goal in mind; by most accounts, this year’s draft class will be one of the worst the league has seen in years. There is some outstanding basketball being played in certain cities around the NBA. But the bad teams we’ve seen this season are up there with some of the worst we’ve ever seen.
Koreen: This perhaps says more about me than the league, but I cannot believe that offense continues to ascend at this rate. Entering Tuesday, seven teams are at or above Sacramento’s record-setting offensive rating of 118.6, set last year. Congratulations to the Pacers, Bucks, Celtics, Thunder, 76ers, Clippers and Nuggets. The median offensive rating is up by more than a point per 100 possessions from last year. There are so many smart minds on coaching staffs obsessing over how to curtail scoring that I figured the tide would turn by now. It turns out those minds are better at figuring out the other end. I guess the unreal talent level across the league factors in, too.
Robbins: Those two answers from Will and Eric are so good that I’m going to interpret this question in a slightly different way. Rather than calling it a “surprise,” I’m going to say that it’s a good sign for the league that so many teams located in non-glamour cities are faring well. The Bucks have been good ever since Giannis ascended, and the Denver Nuggets are the defending champs. But the Timberwolves, Thunder, Indiana Pacers, Orlando Magic, Sacramento Kings and New Orleans Pelicans also are having good seasons, have cornerstone-level young stars and are inherently relevant. Maybe a bit of NFL-level parity has come to the NBA, and that would be a great thing for the league’s fans.
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(Top photo of Sam Hauser, Anthony Edwards, Jrue Holiday and Jayson Tatum: Winslow Townson / USA Today)