2024 NCAA Tournament Bracket Watch: Bear of a week shakes up the 68-team field

2024 NCAA Tournament Bracket Watch: Bear of a week shakes up the 68-team field
By Brian Bennett
Jan 12, 2024

A major plot point in last year’s best TV show unexpectedly involved college basketball. In Season 2 of FX’s “The Bear,” ambitious young chef Sydney (played by Ayo Edebiri) is given a copy of Mike Krzyzewski’s motivational book “Leading With the Heart.” She carries it everywhere and uses the book’s wisdom as she prepares to lead the kitchen staff at a new restaurant in Chicago, which happens to be Coach K’s hometown. The incredible episode 7, “Forks,” begins with an interview with Coach K about teamwork intercut with scenes of Sydney and the crew preparing for the restaurant’s grand opening.   

OK, it’s a little weird that other characters’ immediate association with Krzyzewski is Duke’s epic 2001 comeback against Maryland and not, say, his five national titles with the Blue Devils. (We are available for consultation on your college hoops storylines, Hollywood.) But it’s still a great show and one that Coach K — who wasn’t aware he was a part of Season 2 until after it aired — now heartily endorses. “The Bear” won three Golden Globes last Sunday, including for best comedy, and should take home more prizes on Monday night at the 75th Emmy Awards. 

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So, in honor of Carmy, Sydney, Richie, Marcus and the rest of the gang, let’s turn the tables and use references from “The Bear” as we cook up this week’s notable Bracket Watch developments. After all, the only thing nearly as frenetic as a restaurant kitchen is the chaos menu of this college basketball season:

“Go, Devils.” A waiter says this to Sydney when he notices her reading Coach K’s book, from which he can also quote from memory, curiously leaving out the “Blue” in Blue Devils. (Seriously, for a small fee we will serve as your basketball advisor.) Of course, we had to start with Duke, which debuted as a No. 5 seed in our first mock field and is now on the No. 3 line. Coach K’s former team hasn’t beaten anyone of note in the new year and owns just two wins over likely tournament teams (Michigan State and Baylor, on neutral courts). But the, um, Devils have won seven straight with excellent efficiency numbers, moving to No. 13 in NET, No. 7 in KenPom and fifth in BPI. Plus, one might say the selection committee has shown a real appetite for rewarding this program whenever possible.

“Yes, chef!” That’s our response to perhaps incredulous Kansas fans seeing the Jayhawks bumped down to a No. 2 seed, behind a UConn team that they beat in Allen Fieldhouse. Bill Self’s squad undoubtedly has some of the best wins in the country (Kentucky and Tennessee at neutral sites, plus the one over the Huskies). But at 16th in the NET, 19th in KenPom and 18th in BPI, Kansas simply lacks the statistical profile of a No. 1 seed. Consider that the lowest-ranked NET team to earn a No. 1 seed since the metric began was … last year’s Jayhawks, who were ninth on Selection Sunday.

And, yes, chef, KU’s resume is much stronger than Houston’s, but the Cougars — even after Tuesday’s loss at Iowa State — remain No. 1 in every major computer ranking. We saw a similar situation play out last year when Kansas set a record for Quad 1 wins but Houston dominated the computer rankings out of a weak AAC. The committee seeded the Cougars No. 2 overall and the Jayhawks third.

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All the road upsets this week made us even more convinced that Arizona — whose loss at Stanford no longer feels like such an outlier — belongs on the top line. The Wildcats are the No. 2 overall seed this week behind Purdue, whose road loss at Nebraska was just par for the course this week. Bear Down, indeed.

“I wear suits now.” For the past couple of weeks, perhaps to the confusion of some, we declined to consider any teams that lacked a win in Quads 1 or 2 for at-large bids. The reasoning: We’re seeding the field as if today is Selection Sunday, based on results to this point, and beating up on cupcakes is a foolproof way of getting ignored by the committee. In the last week, several notable teams finally got those upper-quadrant check marks, including Texas, Texas Tech, TCU and Cincinnati. But talk about strange currencies; Texas Tech got its Q1 win at Texas, which got its Q1 win at Cincinnati, which got its Q1 win at mostly-untested BYU. The commonality here, of course, is that all those teams play in the circular firing squad that is the Big 12.

So welcome into consideration, fellas. You don’t all get to be front of house, though. We have Cincinnati — which owns the best road win of the bunch, statistically speaking — in the field along with Texas, while Texas Tech and TCU are in the First Four out. Tough calls. But Texas has played a slightly better schedule than the other two, and the Horned Frogs’ only win outside the last two quads was at home (against Oklahoma on Wednesday). If only that questionable flagrant foul call at Kansas had gone the other way for TCU …

Granted, Texas Tech has the better team sheet and won in Austin, so this may seem nonsensical. Yet we believe Texas is a different and much-improved team with a healthy Dylan Disu, who scored 33 points in his first start of the season in that win at Cincinnati. Call us all the names you want, Red Raiders fans, we can take it. After all, we’re not like this because we’re in Van Halen; we’re in Van Halen because we’re like this.

Speaking of (original) beef: Bring your gripes and questions to the comments section, and we’ll answer as many as we can. Heard!

First Four
Dayton
16
Stetson
16
Grambling
Dayton
11
Virginia
11
Texas A&M
Dayton
16
Wagner
16
Norfolk State
Dayton
11
St. John's
11
Indiana State
Midwest Region (Detroit)
Indianapolis
1
Purdue
16
Montana State
Indianapolis
8
Texas
9
Colorado State
Spokane
4
Alabama
13
Princeton
Spokane
5
Clemson
12
South Florida
Pittsburgh
3
Creighton
14
Morehead State
Pittsburgh
6
Florida
11
James Madison
Memphis
2
Baylor
15
Longwood
Memphis
7
Gonzaga
10
Drake
South Region (Dallas)
Memphis
1
Houston
16
Wagner
Norfolk State
Memphis
8
Wisconsin
9
Florida Atlantic
Spokane
4
Illinois
13
Toledo
Spokane
5
South Carolina
12
McNeese State
Pittsburgh
3
Kentucky
14
Oakland
Pittsburgh
6
Washington State
11
St. John's
Indiana State
Charlotte
2
North Carolina
15
Sam Houston State
Charlotte
7
Texas Tech
10
Seton Hall
West Region (Los Angeles)
Charlotte
1
Tennessee
16
Stetson
Grambling
Charlotte
8
Northwestern
9
TCU
Salt Lake City
4
BYU
13
UC Irvine
Salt Lake City
5
Utah State
12
Grand Canyon
Indianapolis
3
Marquette
14
Charleston
Indianapolis
6
Saint Mary's
11
Texas A&M
Virginia
Salt Lake City
2
Arizona
15
South Dakota State
Salt Lake City
7
Nevada
10
Oklahoma
East Region (Boston)
Brooklyn
1
Connecticut
16
Quinnipiac
Brooklyn
8
Dayton
9
Nebraska
Omaha
4
Kansas
13
Samford
Omaha
5
Auburn
12
Richmond
Pittsburgh
3
Duke
14
Vermont
Pittsburgh
6
San Diego State
11
Mississippi State
Omaha
2
Iowa State
15
Colgate
Omaha
7
Boise State
10
Michigan State

First Four OutNext Four OutLast Four InLast Four Byes
Texas Tech
Colorado
Miami
Cincinnati
TCU
Butler
Ole Miss
Oregon
Wake Forest
Boise State
Virginia Tech
Providence
Virginia
Drake
Texas
Ohio State

Multi-bid conferences
Big 12
8
SEC
8
Big East
7
Big Ten
7
ACC
5
Mountain West
4
Pac-12
3
AAC
2

Seed list
1
Purdue
AQ
2
Arizona
AQ
3
Houston
AQ
4
UConn
AQ
5
Kansas
6
Kentucky
AQ
7
North Carolina
AQ
8
Tennesssee
9
Wisconsin
10
Duke
11
Baylor
12
Marquette
13
Auburn
14
Illinois
15
Memphis
AQ
16
Creighton
17
Oklahoma
18
Colorado State
AQ
19
San Diego State
20
Clemson
21
BYU
22
Dayton
AQ
23
Villanova
24
Florida Atlantic
25
Alabama
26
Iowa State
27
Nevada
28
Utah State
29
Utah
30
St. John's
31
Texas A&M
32
Nebraska
33
Mississippi State
34
Northwestern
35
Grand Canyon
AQ
36
Michigan State
37
Seton Hall
38
South Carolina
39
Gonzaga
AQ
40
Cincinnati
41
Oregon
42
Providence
43
Ohio State
44
Princeton
AQ
45
Miami
46
Ole Miss
47
Virginia Tech
48
Texas
49
James Madison
AQ
50
Indiana State
AQ
51
McNeese State
AQ
52
UC Irvine
AQ
53
Akron
AQ
54
Weber State
AQ
55
Charleston
AQ
56
Morehead State
AQ
57
Samford
AQ
58
High Point
AQ
59
UMass Lowell
AQ
60
Purdue Fort Wayne
AQ
61
Colgate
AQ
62
Lipscomb
AQ
63
Jacksonville State
AQ
64
South Dakota State
AQ
65
Saint Peter's
AQ
66
Southern
AQ
67
Norfolk State
AQ
68
Merrimack
AQ

(Photo of Jeremy Roach: Michael Caterina / AP)

 

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Brian Bennett

Brian Bennett is a senior editor for The Athletic covering National Basketball Association. He previously wrote about college sports for ESPN.com for nine years and The (Louisville) Courier-Journal for nine years prior to that. Follow Brian on Twitter @GBrianBennett