Congratulations. You made it through another season of bad backup quarterbacks and worse officiating. It’s time to see if any of these flawed teams can step up in the playoffs and prevent an inevitable Super Bowl rematch between the 49ers and Ravens.
While we would never call an NFL team soft, the Miami Dolphins — our preseason long shot — appear to be fortitude-challenged when it comes to playing the better teams in adverse conditions …
And, as luck should have it, they open up in Kansas City against the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs in what might be the coldest playoff game ever.
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Meanwhile, we love the Joe Flacco story — and even more so going against inexperienced QBs in the playoffs — but we’re not sure the Cleveland Browns get out of the first round.
We limped to the finish line with our picks the last few weeks, but it’s a new race. Let’s go …
Last week: 6-10 against the spread, 2-3 on best bets.
Regular-season record: 135-130-7 against the spread, 48-41-1 on best bets.
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All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (+2) | 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, NBC
Here’s the money stat when it comes to picking playoff games, updated and shared to backslaps and free drinks every year: Quarterbacks making their first playoff start versus QBs who have playoff experience are 17-35-1 against the spread (32.7 percent) since 2002. (They are 17-36 straight up.) Flacco versus C.J. Stroud is the first of four such matchups this weekend, and Flacco has been very good to us. With a win Sunday, Flacco would surpass Tom Brady (seven) for most road playoff wins by a starting quarterback in NFL history.
Here’s the problem: Houston just got a look at Flacco three weeks ago, and though Amari Cooper torched them with 265 receiving yards, he is battling a heel injury. And the Texans were missing key defensive players in that 36-22 loss, including rookie dynamo Will Anderson Jr. The Texans also didn’t have Stroud (concussion) in that game, and while the Browns defense was elite at one point, there has been slippage on the road and late in the season. And the Browns’ pressure shouldn’t bother the rookie that much. Stroud did not throw an interception in 146 pressured pass attempts during the regular season, the most such attempts without a pick by any player since Aaron Rodgers in 2018 (159). We’re taking the home underdog.
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The pick: Texans
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Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) | 8 p.m. ET Saturday, Peacock
Damn the wise guys. I had no intention of backing the Dolphins in Kansas City, but I also am allergic to traps. And an opening line of the Chiefs favored by 2.5 at home is definitely a trap — it’s up to 4.5 and climbing as everyone and their grandma knows the Dolphins lost by an average of 26 points at Buffalo, at Philadelphia and at Baltimore. The Chiefs have serious issues at receiver and tight end Travis Kelce has been slowed by injuries, old age and the paparazzi. And it’s not like they will be able to run the ball. The Dolphins rank sixth in the NFL in opponent yards per rush (3.8) and Miami has allowed the third-lowest percentage of rushes to go 5-plus yards (30.7 percent). Meanwhile, the Dolphins will be able to run. The Chiefs defense ranks 24th in yards after contact per rush (2.96). I think it’s a field goal game either way.
The pick: Dolphins
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-10) | 4:30 p.m. ET Monday, CBS
Tip of the cap to Mike Tomlin. He took a bad team to the playoffs, thanks to winning three straight games. He probably loses to the Ravens’ B-squad last week if not for the fact QB Tyler Huntley somehow has gotten worse in four seasons as Baltimore’s backup. Mason Rudolph, on the other hand, is not terrible anymore, though he gets a much tougher test with the Bills defense this week. And the Steelers offensive line is not very good. Rudolph ranks 22nd in yards per attempt against pressure (6.2) since his first start in Week 16. From a clean pocket over the same span, Rudolph ranks first at 12.2. Did we mention that T.J. Watt is out for the Steelers? The Steelers have pressured opposing QBs on 37.7 percent of dropbacks with Watt on the field the past two seasons — fourth in the NFL. Without him, that number drops to 28.1 percent — which would rank dead last. Blowout city.
The pick: Bills
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-7) | 4:30 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
If you’re paying attention, we have gone against the magic formula two out of three times, as Tua Tagovailoa is making his first playoff start against Patrick Mahomes, same as Stroud against Flacco. This is the fourth game, and we are going back to common sense — like we did with Rudolph against Josh Allen — and we’re picking veteran Dak Prescott over Jordan Love. We have had zero success predicting Love’s roller-coaster season, and we are worried about Packers running back Aaron Jones. The Cowboys rank 29th in rush defense success rate, second worst among playoff teams. (Only the Eagles have been worse at 58.1 percent.) But you just can’t go against Prescott and CeeDee Lamb at home this season. The Packers, by the way, have allowed 8.8 yards per attempt on passes to players who lined up in the slot, 30th in the NFL.
The pick: Cowboys
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3) | 8:15 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC
Dan Campbell decided to play his starters last week (they had a tiny shot at a higher seed) and paid the price when the Lions lost tight end Sam LaPorta to a knee injury. He said Thursday he’s optimistic about suiting up, but a fully healthy LaPorta would have been huge this week, as the Rams have allowed 8.4 yards per attempt on passes to tight ends this season, worst in the NFL. Not to mention eight touchdowns, second worst to only the Broncos (10). But we’re still picking the gritty Lions? Because we love some backup tight end named James Mitchell? No, because we think Jared Goff is very good at home and he will get some revenge against Sean McVay and his former team. Plus, the week off resting players may actually hurt the rhythm that Matthew Stafford — set for his return to Detroit — and the Rams offense had going down the stretch when they were 7-1.
The pick: Lions
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Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) | 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ABC/ESPN
If things weren’t going bad enough for the Eagles, A.J. Brown (knee) and Jalen Hurts (finger) suffered injuries in last week’s loss to the Giants. Hurts has already been playing with a bad knee and has not been very good for a while now. Hurts has a 58.9 passer rating when pressured during the Eagles’ current 1-5 stretch, which ranks 22nd in the NFL in that span. Hurts ranked sixth over the first 11 games (86.5). It’s not all on him, as the offensive line has also been bad and the defense even worse. They are so bad, they really have no shot at stopping the Buccaneers’ Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans and Rachaad White on the road. Yeah, you read that right. I wonder if Jim Harbaugh wants to coach the Eagles.
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The pick: Buccaneers
Byes: Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers
Best bets: Bills over the Steelers and Cowboys over the Packers.
Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): Buccaneers take down the defending NFC champion Eagles.
— TruMedia research courtesy of Jason Starrett.
(Top photo of Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff: Ben Liebenberg / Associated Press)
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