Lowetide: Stuart Skinner, Ryan McLeod and the Oilers’ development system

Young players do not develop in a straight line.

Losing NHL teams never learn that lesson.

Edmonton Oilers history is littered with short-sighted decisions that sent away young NHL players before they established themselves. In some cases, the players did make the grade as productive players and were still sent away in a management fit of pique or a cap-related issue.

The most recent young players who experienced a pressure point that could have become a trade crossroads are Ryan McLeod and Stuart Skinner.

The list of players Edmonton sent away early in their careers, then watched as those same players flourished for a decade or more, is substantial. From Jason Chimera to Devan Dubnyk to Jeff Petry, Andrew Cogliano and beyond, Oilers management lacked the maturity (or consistency) to be patient with some fine talent.

Some Oilers fans were calling for major change early this season, as both McLeod and Skinner struggled with the rest of the team.

When evaluating a player, it’s important to make certain the sample being observed is large enough to be trusted. Here’s a look at each player, and why a kneejerk reaction to the slow start would have been a terrible idea.

The numbers: Skinner

Skinner took a great deal of heat early in the season, but the long resume, the one we should be discussing, shows a great deal of consistency over several years of pro hockey.

Includes all game states

Skinner’s path as a goalie is quite consistent for a hockey position notorious for wild peaks and valleys of performance.

He was building through his AHL career, and has done the same since arriving with the Oilers.

At the start of 2023-24, the organization was trying a modified defensive structure and it wasn’t working. Part of that was goaltending, and Skinner struggled. However, Edmonton used the old system and had success in 2022-23, so the tweak involved altering a successful structure due to specific breakdowns on a small number of playoff goals against.

That kind of major change means a small sample was being held up as proof of a fatal flaw, when in actual fact that may not be the case.

Familiarity with a system is a key element, new deployment of any kind takes time to learn.

That decision cost Jay Woodcroft his coaching job, and placed Skinner in some danger as the team’s co-starter (with the now banished to AHL Jack Campbell).

The identical situation impacted Dubnyk and led directly to his being dealt by the Oilers. It sent the big goaltender’s career out of control for several months before he was able to build on his resume with the Arizona Coyotes.

The “swarm” is long forgotten, and when Dubnyk’s career is mentioned there’s a good chance no one will mention the weeks of alarming defensive coverage in front of Edmonton’s goaltenders.

Skinner’s situation this fall was somewhat similar, and credit to the organization for not overreacting and sending the young goalie away.

That kind of maturity wasn’t on display in Dubnyk’s time in Edmonton.

When an organization invests draft picks and development time, it has to be valued by management. A slight wobble in a small sample, especially in goal, is going to happen over a long career.

Skinner has righted the ship, and the long resume (more sample size) suggests Edmonton can expect something close to .915 goaltending in the coming years from Skinner. It is less than elite, but easily covers his cap hit.

The young goaltender saved the team’s season in 2022-23, and is on the way to doing it again.

Five-on-five save percentage is the purest form of save percentage (according to the experts) because it comes closest to measuring individual performance. Here is Skinner, from debut to today.

All numbers five-on-five

Skinner’s career is not yet an established one, but in his two full seasons, the young netminder has been successful in the game state. Since Kris Knoblauch took over, Skinner’s .926 save percentage at five-on-five ranks No. 11 among NHL starters.

The swarm sent Dubnyk wandering. The organization stayed the course with Skinner. It was the right play.

The numbers: McLeod

McLeod enjoyed a steady rise up the depth chart with the AHL Bakersfield Condors during his minor-league career. His points per game progression (0.41, 1.0, 0.71) shows a player who saw increased ice time and had success. In fact, McLeod in the AHL transported the puck out of the defensive zone and into the offensive zone with aplomb. He also saw power-play time in the minors.

His outscoring at even strength by season in Bakersfield (50 percent in 2019-20; 71 percent in 2020-21 and 46 percent in 2021-22) was less consistent, but the Condors resume was rock solid as McLeod entered the NHL.

The worry for him wasn’t speed, or defensive coverage, but rather providing enough offence at five-on-five. McLeod has delivered, with only the Woodcroft games earlier this season representing a worry.

All numbers five-on-five

Since returning to health, and with a recent push due to joining the Leon Draisaitl line, McLeod has exceeded last season’s goal share and is in the range as a scorer.

McLeod’s issues pertain to his hesitancy to join in the battle at the net-front, but part of that may have been injury. His overall performance in the NHL, especially in 2022-23 and while playing for Knoblauch since November, reflect a valuable young player with a value contract.

The next: Broberg and Holloway

In Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway, the Oilers have two young players who are beyond the prospect pipeline and are at a point in their careers when they should be contributing at the NHL level.

Both men have played extensively in the AHL and are building NHL careers. Here’s the tale of the tape for each player, in both leagues.

The numbers for both men suggest an NHL career is likely.

Broberg’s offence is strong in the minors, less impressive in the NHL. Much of the offence for defencemen in the NHL comes via the power play; Broberg may never get power-play time. In the AHL, his even-strength outscoring came while playing big minutes against all levels of opposition.

At the NHL level, Broberg has been protected to the extreme. His outer marker as a prospect might be a two-way type who uses his considerable speed and wingspan at even strength and on the penalty kill.

Holloway performed well in the AHL, although his even-strength offence (9-8-17 in 45 games) in Bakersfield was shy of what a future skill line NHL winger would deliver.

His NHL auditions seem to confirm the problem, but he could be productive as a middle-six forward option for years to come.

Bottom line

The Oilers are pushing for Stanley. There may be temptation to send away McLeod, Skinner, Broberg or Holloway via trade at the deadline.

Management needs to develop and deploy young talent already in the system.

Value contracts are going to be central to Edmonton’s success next season. All four of these players qualify.

The total cap hit for the four in 2024-25 projects to around $7 million.

Edmonton needs more value contracts. Resisting the temptation for a quick fix is the right call with young players who have had a body of success in the NHL.

Trading 2024 and 2025 draft picks is the play for general manager Ken Holland at the deadline.

(Photo of Ryan McLeod and Stuart Skinner: Fred Kfoury III / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)