Tyler Glasnow landed in his ‘best-possible scenario,’ but Dodgers can’t stop here

ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA - SEPTEMBER 06: Tyler Glasnow #20 of the Tampa Bay Rays pitches during a game against the Boston Red Sox at Tropicana Field on September 06, 2023 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
By Fabian Ardaya
Dec 18, 2023

Tyler Glasnow knew this much: He was going to be traded this offseason. Such is the life cycle of a Tampa Bay Ray, much less one making $25 million next season. The list of clubs involved in talks surrounding the right-hander was extensive: the Cubs, Reds, Angels and even a mystery club in the mix. But to land with the Dodgers?

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“It worked out best-possible scenario,” the Santa Clarita, Calif., native said Monday, as the ink dried not just on a trade — which sent Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot to Los Angeles in exchange for pitcher Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny DeLuca — but on a five-year, $136.5 million contract extension (which features $110 million guaranteed in new money). He did little to keep the constant smile off his sun-baked face as he spoke with reporters via videoconference from his car, even early on a Monday morning.

This is where he wanted to be.

The Dodgers and Rays had been engaged on Glasnow for much of the winter, narrowing their focus in recent weeks (with a soiree featuring Dodgers and Rays officials at country star Brad Paisley’s Nashville, Tenn., ranch during the Winter Meetings among several entry points) on the 6-foot-8 right-hander who possesses as tantalizing an arsenal as anyone in the sport. As those discussions intensified, the Dodgers’ priorities became clear.

If they were going to give up Pepiot, a talented young right-hander penciled into their rotation with five years of club control left, they were going to need to ensure Glasnow was around long-term. Likewise, if they were going to give up DeLuca with his six years of cost control remaining, they were going to want the Rays to kick in some of the money on Margot’s remaining deal as well (the Rays will send $2 million to cover Margot’s $10 million salary next season, and an additional $2 million to cover a buyout if the Dodgers decline Margot’s $12 million club option for 2025).

The talks came together quickly. Los Angeles, Glasnow said, was “somewhere I’ve wanted to be my entire life.” He grew up an hour from Dodger Stadium (or three, he joked, depending on traffic), arriving late and leaving early but staying long enough to admire the swing of Shawn Green, or the electricity of watching a young Clayton Kershaw take the mound with a 12-to-6 curveball that Glasnow himself boasts in his arsenal.

He’d set a number with his agent, Joel Wolfe of Wasserman, but added, “It’s never really been about making as much as I possibly can.” While his parents have moved to Arizona, Southern California remains his home. Teammates and friends throughout the game vouched for the Dodgers and their front office.

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“It’s such a similar feel to the Rays,” Glasnow said of a front office that already has plenty of ties to his former home. “I guess the only difference is that the Dodgers have a lot more money.”

A video from Shohei Ohtani, two-way star turned recruiter, didn’t hurt, either. Ohtani “thinks very highly” of Glasnow, general manager Brandon Gomes said, making the quick request a no-brainer.

“It definitely added a lot of points for me to go to the Dodgers,” Glasnow said. “I think his recruitment worked.”

So too did a market-rate extension, one that tacked on $110 million over the next four years to the $25 million he’s owed this season (for luxury tax purposes, $10 million of that was converted to a signing bonus). That, plus a dual option that allows the Dodgers to exercise a $30 million club option or Glasnow to pick up a $21.5 million player option for 2028, is a weighty bet on upside, particularly for a pitcher who has never topped 120 innings in a season and is a couple of years removed from Tommy John surgery.

As The Athletic’s Tim Britton, an expert on prognosticating deals, put it:

“The dilemma with Glasnow has always been valuing his Cy Young ceiling when he’s been on the mound against the amount of time he’s missed. This $110 million extension — four years at $27.5 million per year on top of the $25 million Glasnow is set to make in 2024 — sets up as a strong deal for the right-hander. On a per-year basis, it values his free-agent years in line with what Carlos Rodón received from the Yankees a season ago, and he’s getting more overall than pitchers who recently signed extensions such as Luis Castillo and Joe Musgrove — guys who have produced more consistently if not on the same per-start level as Glasnow.”

It’s just the sixth $100 million contract the Dodgers have ever given to a pitcher, and the second this winter alone, along with Ohtani. Both have troubling histories with their elbows, an added risk factor.

But both Glasnow and Gomes argued the center of the right-hander’s health issues came from his recurring trouble with that now-surgically repaired ligament. The problems started with an ulnar collateral ligament sprain in 2019, an issue that recurred in 2021 and eventually required surgery. Dr. Keith Meister, a Texas-based orthopedic surgeon, performed a “hybrid procedure,” Glasnow said, which included a synthetic collagen band aimed at reinforcing the new ligament.

“So in my brain, I have double the strength,” Glasnow said. An innings restriction in 2023 along with some tweaks, from minute mechanical adjustments to where Glasnow stands on the rubber, helped.

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His workload for 2024, a year after he made a career-most 21 starts, will be “fluid,” Gomes said. After all, he was acquired for what he could provide in October as well as to help the Dodgers get through the regular season. The club is already finding creative ways to manage Walker Buehler’s workload after his second Tommy John surgery and has floated the possibility of a delayed start to his season. There remains a chance that Dustin May will be a part of the mix in the latter half of the season after undergoing surgery in July to repair his flexor tendon and revise his Tommy John procedure. If Kershaw opts to return to Los Angeles (he told AM 570’s David Vassegh last week he was still contemplating his decision), he wouldn’t be back until at least midseason after undergoing shoulder surgery.

Timing out the health of those arms is an imperfect science, and that’s partly why the Dodgers very much remain in the market for starting pitching even after acquiring Glasnow. As the club was finalizing its deal for Glasnow, the Dodgers (and a star-studded contingent) met with Japanese free-agent right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto at Dodger Stadium. Yamamoto, who is also represented by Wolfe, has met twice with the Mets and Yankees, though the Dodgers remain among the front-runners for his services. Should they land him, he’d inevitably be their third $100-plus million arm of the winter.

(Photo of Tyler Glasnow: Mike Ehrmann / Getty Images)

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Fabian Ardaya

Fabian Ardaya is a staff writer covering the Los Angeles Dodgers for The Athletic. He previously spent three seasons covering the crosstown Los Angeles Angels for The Athletic. He graduated from Arizona State University’s Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication in May 2017 after growing up in a Phoenix-area suburb. Follow Fabian on Twitter @FabianArdaya