The Washington Wizards bear a unique debt to their fan base.
Among NBA franchises founded before 2000, Washington is the only team that hasn’t recorded a single 50-win regular season in the last four-plus decades.
Washington hasn’t won 50 games in a season since 1978-79, the year after the then-Bullets won their only NBA championship. Since then, 14 different franchises, slightly less than half of the league, have won at least one title, and every other team (except the current Charlotte Hornets, who started play in 2004-05 as the Charlotte Bobcats) has reached at least one conference final. More than half of the NBA’s teams — 17 — have made five or more conference finals during that stretch.
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D.C.-area fans have waited longer than any other fan base in the league for a team that both wins at a consistently high level and has a real chance to contend. Many franchises have built, rebuilt and re-rebuilt contenders during that stretch, while Washington has meandered from decade to decade, never achieving anything approaching league-wide relevance.
Occasionally, a superstar has come through the District — Chris Webber, Gilbert Arenas, John Wall — and, briefly, raised expectations. But it’s never been sustainable.
The Wizards’ new brain trust has been empowered by team governor Ted Leonsis to do whatever it takes to, finally, put the franchise on a true contender footing. The new front office is attempting to do just that, with a comprehensive rebuild of the franchise from the bottom up. In this series, The Athletic will examine the myriad changes in philosophy, personnel and infrastructure that the Wizards are making as they try, at long last, to remake the NBA’s most forlorn franchise.
WASHINGTON — In his decade in the NBA, Mike Muscala thought he had seen almost everything the league had to offer. He had been traded a total of six times. He participated in an Oklahoma City Thunder rebuild and in deep playoff runs by the Atlanta Hawks and Boston Celtics.
This October, however, the 32-year-old experienced something with his newest team, the Washington Wizards, that he had never experienced before: a player-development meeting unmatched in its scope and in its attention to detail. Muscala said nine or 10 members of the Wizards’ basketball operations staff — including new general manager Will Dawkins, coach Wes Unseld Jr., assistant coach Mike Miller, vice president of research and information systems Katherine Evans and director of athletic performance Kyle Moschkin — met with Muscala to describe the organization’s development plan for him for the 2023-24 season. He had never had so many people from so many different departments focused entirely on him.
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“That was a first for me in my NBA experience,” Muscala recalled.
From Muscala’s perspective, part of what made that meeting so refreshing was how the team’s brain trust had identified specific statistical benchmarks they want Muscala to meet throughout the season. Staff members told him, for instance, they would monitor opponents’ shooting percentage on attempts that he contests at the rim. Team officials set a goal in line with Muscala’s career numbers, and team officials said they would keep him apprised of how well he is doing.
Muscala isn’t the only Wizards player to have such a detailed development plan. Everyone on the roster, ranging from 19-year-old rookie Bilal Coulibaly to 35-year-old veteran Danilo Gallinari, has been given numerical and/or qualitative goals to reach.
Before the team assembled for training camp, new Monumental Basketball president Michael Winger and Dawkins said improvements and progress would not be reflected in the Wizards’ won-loss record this season.
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They spoke of “small wins” — gains that would not necessarily show up in box scores but would be necessary steps toward building a championship-level organization.
“I think that’s going to be the measure of success individually and as a team,” Dawkins said then. “Throughout the year, we’re going to identify those small wins. We’re going to stack those small wins and make sure that we’re searching for those throughout the year. And, at the end of the day, we’re doing it because we’re pursuing progress. We’re focused on the here-and-now, day-to-day approach, and that’s going to be the mindset of all of our guys, all of our players and all of our coaches.”
And in every area surrounding the team this season, those seeds are being planted. Whether they bear sustainable fruit in the coming years is central to what separates great teams and organizations from those that are in constant upheaval.
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“I would assume it’s similar in a number of areas, a number of places around the league, but here we’re even more detail-oriented rather than just kind of generalizing where your numbers are,” said point guard Tyus Jones, who played for the Minnesota Timberwolves and Memphis Grizzlies before he, like Muscala, was traded to Washington over the summer.
“Here,” Jones added, “it’s more specific on both ends of the floor where you’re excelling and where you’re struggling and what we need to focus on. So that’s something that I think is great coming over here. It’s a part of the player-development process that I know Mike and Will have stressed that is going to be important, and (players) can see how important it is.”
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Well, what, and where, are those “small wins” to which Winger and Dawkins have alluded?
Interviews with multiple team and league sources in recent weeks provide clarity.
Let us state, flatly: On the floor, the Wizards are miserable this season. At 3-20 as of Dec. 14, Washington is tied for the second-worst record in the NBA, having been blown out many times or given up double-digit leads in the second half in a half-dozen games.
The Dec. 11 146-101 loss to the 76ers in Philadelphia, in which Washington trailed 14-0 a couple of minutes into the first quarter and which wound up being the fourth-largest margin of defeat in franchise history, was another humiliation. The Wizards have, by both traditional and advanced numbers, one of the NBA’s worst defenses. Washington has allowed 130 or more points 12 times in the first seven weeks of the season. Washington also ranks last in the league in points allowed per possession.
But the rebuild isn’t just on the floor.
When Leonsis, with great fanfare, announced a new organizational structure in 2019 for the Wizards, promoting then-assistant general manager Tommy Sheppard while adding multiple layers of senior management on the basketball side, the idea was, as he put it then, “problem-solving with a lot of great minds is a better formula to solve really, really big problems than ‘here’s the head of NASA and his vice presidents; let’s let them figure it out.’” In that structure, for example, the team’s medical staff did not report to Sheppard.
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It didn’t work. There was little cohesion between the different groups within the basketball operations department, and organizational morale the last couple of years dropped significantly, according to multiple team sources. When Leonsis hired Winger in May, Leonsis created a brand-new position — president of Monumental Basketball — giving Winger broad oversight over everything for the Wizards, the G League’s Capital City Go-Go and WNBA’s Washington Mystics, except for the teams’ business and marketing arms.
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Part of the challenge, then, to the new brain trust is to make people throughout the building feel comfortable with one another. Departments within the Wizards’ basketball operations group now collaborate to a greater extent than before. This explains, in part, why so many people met with Muscala in October; it got everyone on the same page and ensured that Muscala knew everyone was communicating. And to be clear: Nine to 10 people attended all of the players’ individual initial development meetings.
“The right hand’s got to know what the left hand is doing,” one member of the front office said. “It’s all connected.”
Again, make no mistake: The premise of “small wins” means by definition that the team is not actually winning on the court, in real time. Nightly drubbings, no matter the potential rewards at the end of the process, are hard, both on players and fans. And there is no guarantee this will eventually work. Many teams that embark on years-long rebuilds never reach a championship level and eventually have to tear it down and start over again.
But the new brain trust is committed to the process.
“First, (tracking small wins) gives each player a set of measurable improvements to work on throughout the year and not rely on game wins and losses as a proxy for individual success,” Winger told The Athletic. “If the players are pursuing and achieving these small wins, they’re individually getting better. When players know they can come to your team and become better basketball players, that’s a wonderful badge of honor for a team. Over time, as the talent on our team increases and the experience increases and guys are compounding those incremental wins, the game wins will naturally come.
“Secondly, it’s a strong cultural identifier, particularly during the frustrations and occasional hopelessness that stems from a bad loss, a losing streak or run of injuries. …
“It’s a marathon mentality — one stride at a time, protecting that one stride because every stride thereafter relies on the pace, power, accuracy and safe launch and landing of every stride before it, starting with the very first one. And finally, it sets a tone of resisting shortcuts, not settling for mediocre, not circumventing sustainability. Whether that’s on the court, in the weight room, in the cafe, film room or within our production team; marketing, PR, health-and-wellness — up and down the organization.”
Unseld and front-office officials said they’re seeing growth in this initial rebuilding phase, even if that progress isn’t always obvious at first glance.
Some of the areas staff members are measuring in greater detail this season include: At what rate do Wizards players, both individually and as a team, contest shots? How often are the players in a proper defensive stance? Do the players hit opponents first on a box-out, even if Washington doesn’t wind up with a rebound?
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Each player has a coach or staff member who is assigned to go back and watch the game film and make sure everything is graded correctly. They emphasize process over results.
“We’re seeing an increase in some of those individual numbers,” Unseld said. “That does matter. That does translate. Now, it doesn’t necessarily translate into winning a game right now, but it does translate into overall improvement. So, that’s a positive. We’ve seen an uptick in a lot of those areas for a number of guys across the group, not just young players.”
The goals are set by the entire basketball operations department, with the front office, the coaching staff, the analytics department and the medical and performance staffs working collaboratively. The idea is to have a 360-degree view of how a player is performing and to be able to make adjustments in real time.
“It helps us set goals and puts us in a position to where we get to the point of setting those goals,” center Daniel Gafford said. “We work toward those goals when it comes to the player-development side, off the floor, on the floor, mentally, physically, emotionally.”
Every 10 games, players have relatively quick check-in “decimal” meetings to see how they’re progressing toward the goals set before the start of the year. The most recent meetings occurred during the Wizards’ recent two-game road trip to Orlando from Nov. 28-Dec. 1.
Every 25 games, players will also have longer, more detailed meetings.
“The season blends together so fast,” swingman Corey Kispert said. “It makes it more digestible, and it makes our motivation levels higher when we can break it up. And so sitting down at the beginning of each 10-game stretch and checking in on what we want to do and what we wanted to accomplish, gives us more of a laser focus.
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“It’s easy to get to Game 53, when you’re playing in Detroit, and not have any idea what’s going on. Keeping your mind clear and making sure you are sure of the progression you’re making throughout the season, rather than turning around at Game 82 and saying, ‘Oh, s—, I’m here,’ makes a difference.”
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No one’s development arc on the current roster is more important than Coulibaly’s. The Wizards prioritized the 6-foot-8 French wing in the draft, trading up with Indiana to make sure they got him with the seventh pick ahead of other suitors.
Coulibaly has made 42.4 percent of his 3-point tries, an unexpected pleasant surprise. But the Wizards’ immediate focus for the rookie, team sources said, revolves around his defense. Team staff members are tracking the rate at which Coulibaly contests shots and the rate at which he commits defensive fouls.
On offense, team officials want Coulibaly to recognize what an efficient shot is, and are measuring how often Coulibaly attempts what is considered a good shot. To put it another way: The team’s brain trust would prefer to see Coulibaly (and other players) take an open corner 3-pointer instead of a contested 2-pointer from 20 feet. Team officials also are tracking his productivity in pick-and-rolls, both as a ballhandler and as a roller.
Team officials would not share Coulibaly’s numerical target goals. But, according to the advanced analytics database Cleaning the Glass, which excludes stats compiled in garbage time, Coulibaly is faring well in many areas.
Through Tuesday, Coulibaly had committed defensive fouls on 3.0 percent of the Wizards’ defensive plays; for context, Coulibaly ranks in the 61st percentile among all NBA wings in that category, which is impressive because Coulibaly is relatively inexperienced and because Unseld often assigns Coulibaly to defend opponents’ best perimeter players.
So far this season, Coulibaly has logged significant minutes guarding some of the NBA’s elite offensive talents: Damian Lillard, Jayson Tatum, Luka Dončić, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jalen Brunson, among others. Coulibaly’s had some promising moments defensively, and some humbling ones.
But, consider it another way: Coulibaly will never be as green and inexperienced as he is now.
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“They want me to focus on being a good two-way player,” Coulibaly said after a recent practice. “Defensively, being good. At first it was more defensively, but now, a bit more offensively, too. Be able to run the pick-and-rolls, make a good read. They’re not trying to put a lot of pressure on me, but just be serious with what I’m doing.”
Coulibaly started his education before training camp, playing in local runs full of NBA players in Maryland, where he guarded the likes of Jerami Grant, the Blazers’ forward and son of former Bullet Harvey Grant. Jerami Grant, who starred locally at DeMatha, was in town much of the summer.
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“He was playing a lot on the post, you know, trying to use his body, fadeaways and everything,” Coulibaly said. “So I was thinking, ‘How can I stop him? And I found some ways to stop it, contest it. It helped me out, for sure.”
And after some offseason tinkering with hand and foot placement, the Wizards have not messed further with Coulibaly’s, shall we say, unorthodox release on his jumper.
“It’s going in,” he said. “Nothing to say.”
Other players also receive qualitative goals that cannot be measured through statistics.
Kyle Kuzma, now in his seventh NBA season, said the biggest area of focus set for him revolves around leadership. Is he helping his teammates remain focused and helping teammates see the bigger, process-oriented picture?
Anthony Gill, a 31-year-old frontcourt player, declined to comment about his specific, stats-based goals, adding team officials may not want him to disclose those goals publicly. But, Gill said, one of his overarching goals is to serve as a “connector” for the team, helping to “make sure that each player feels comfortable and supported.”
“I think we have a plan in place that incorporates everyone — all departments for one specific player,” Gill said. “So from top to bottom, from our number-one player to the last guy on the roster, there’s a plan from each department that is specific to each player, and all the departments are on the same page about the development of that player. Say, for instance, your goal is to improve your 3-point percentage. Anywhere from medical to the on-the-court player development crew and the strength staff and the training staff — everyone has a part in trying to increase that 3-point percentage.”
Gafford, now in his fifth NBA season, has been tasked with a goal of collecting 21 percent of all available defensive rebounds this season, a team source said.
He has collected 17.3 percent of possible defensive rebounds. But team officials understand that they are asking an awful lot from their undersized, 25-year-old center. They want him to be a primary help defender on pick-and-rolls, be the team’s best rim protector following the offseason trade of Kristaps Porziņģis and box-out opposing bigs crashing the offensive glass. So, while there are black-and-white goals in place, there is also the real world to consider when assessing Gafford’s season to date.
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In Kispert’s case, team officials have honed in on his shot profile.
Last season, 87 percent of his shots were either 3s or shots inside of 4 feet, according to Cleaning the Glass.
So, after a mid-November practice, a reporter asked him about his figures for this season.
The reporter started, “What do you think your percentage is of shots that are either …”
“One hundred,” Kispert answered, before the question could be finished.
And, in a sign of how well the team is communicating his progress, Kispert was correct.
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Kispert had not taken a single midrange shot in his first 12 games played this season. In those games, he’d taken 90 total field goal attempts. Fifty-eight of them were 3s. The other 32 were all inside of 4 feet: layups, drives to the basket or dunks.
That percentage has come down a little in the last few weeks. Entering play Wednesday, per Cleaning the Glass, 85 percent of Kispert’s shots this season have either been 3s or inside of 4 feet. Conversely, only 1 percent of all of Kispert’s field goal attempts have been long, mid-range 2-pointers — the shot considered anathema by the basketball analytics community.
Players can always seek even better shots than they’re getting. But there’s not much more Kispert could do to be a more efficient shot-taker in today’s NBA. His shot chart detailing his shot attempts this season bears it out.
“It’s intentional on my part,” Kispert said.
Kispert was 10th in the league last season among qualified players in 3-point percentage at 42.4, and was very effective at the rim, making 74 percent of his shots there. That put him in the 90th percentile of all wings in the NBA in making shots at the rim, per Cleaning the Glass. And he was in the 96th percentile in effective field goal percentage, which factors in the added impact of made 3s, at 63.5.
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His total 3s and 3-point percentage are both down a little so far this season, but he expects to be around his career norms by the time the season ends. But, just as importantly, he’s hoping to continue to be a more diverse offensive player going forward.
Through the first quarter of this season, Kispert’s almost doubled the percentage of shot attempts on which he’s drawn a foul — an added bonus for the team, as he’s a career 84 percent free-throw shooter. So far this year, he’s getting fouled on 11.6 percent of his shot attempts; last season, he was fouled on just 5.9 percent. That 11.6 percent figure puts him in the 64th percentile of all wings in the league; last season, he was in the 29th percentile.
“Looking at my numbers last year, that’s where I had the most impact, and was at the highest level, not only on the team but across the league,” he said. “I’ve always been taught that you have to double down on your strengths, and those are my strengths. So I’m getting to the rim more often. I feel more comfortable off the dribble. It’s not a strict rule I have to follow, but that’s just where I’ve found myself all year long.”
But Washington’s major issue this season is not its offense, of course. Its defense has been, frankly, horrendous. But defensive performance and development is a focus for every Wizards player, Unseld and players said.
“A number that we talk about is, without giving too much info, is a success rate on being just in the right defensive spot,” Jones said. “That’s something that our staff breaks down for every player, like being in the right rotational spot. So, that’s something that’s different just because usually it’s like, ‘You getting the stop on your man one-on-one, or what’s your defensive net rating? Things like that. But we’re breaking it down even another layer, and that’s on both ends of the floor we’re doing that. So I think that’s huge.”
Concurrent with the players’ individual goals are team goals for the season, which often go hand-in-hand.
Wizards officials would like the team to finish in the top 10 leaguewide in the rate it forces turnovers, a team source said. One of the reasons the front office, coaches and analytics specialists have honed in on that stat is that players tend to force a higher rate of turnovers if they are in the correct defensive spots. Being in the right defensive spots is a habit worth building.
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Even though Washington’s defense has struggled overall, Washington ranks 13th in opponents’ turnover percentage. One of the reasons for that above-average ranking is that coaches are holding the players accountable for being in the right spots. The check-in meetings help build proper habits.
The reality is that the defense’s overall results almost certainly will not improve markedly until the roster improves. Team officials understand that playing an undersized backcourt of Jones, who is 6-1, and Jordan Poole, who is 6-4, puts the entire defense at a significant disadvantage. It also hurts that, after trading 7-foot-3 center Kristaps Porziņģis, Washington has only Gafford as a reliable rim protector.
But until the roster improves, having defenders in the correct places, and forcing turnovers as a result, is a prime example of Washington compiling a small win — the kind of small, process-oriented habit that could pay dividends in the future.
This season, “wins” aren’t about the final score. Like it or not.
“(Sometimes it’s) simple things as far as being in the right spot at the right time — something that we track for every player as part of their goals — and we’re seeing that, in general, guys are doing a lot better job percentage-wise being where they’re supposed to be,” Unseld said. “So that’s a plus. Now, whether that impacts the play or not, that is a goal that we want to make sure we achieve. Some of the smaller things are wins for us. They don’t always translate to winning a basketball game, but I do think winning the moment, it’s important.”
In Part II of the series, The Athletic will examine the Wizards’ extensive infrastructure additions and improvements for the team’s players and staff as the franchise begins the long process of “leveling up” to compete with the NBA’s top franchises.
(Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; photos: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)